Weekly Commodity Market Report

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20 OCT 24 OCT 2014 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
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Trifid Research provided daily and weekly report of stock market, commodity market and currency market.

Transcript of Weekly Commodity Market Report

  • 1. 20 OCT 24 OCT 2014W E E K L YREPORTBlow by BlowOnBullions,Base metals,EnergyWWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

2. MAJOR EVENTSGold futures fell for the second straight day as gains in equities reduced demand for the precious metal as a haven. Palladium climbed after yesterday approaching a bear market. The Standard & Poors 500 Index rose as much as 1.9 percent, while European shares snapped the longest slump since 2003. U.S. housing starts gained in September after slumping a month earlier, government data showed today. Gold advanced for the second straight week amid global economic concerns.Last week, the metal dropped to the lowest this year on the outlook for higher U.S. borrowing costs amid gains in the economy. Gold rebounded as the Fed signaled a worldwide slowdown may delay interest-rate increases. Prices slumped 8.4 percent in the third quarter as equities surged to a record. Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.2 percent to settle at $1,239 an ounce at 1:49 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Yesterday, the price dropped 0.3 percent. This week, futures climbed 1.4 percent.The metal on Oct. 15 reached $1,250.30, the highest for a most-active contract since Sept. 11. On Oct. 6, gold touched $1,183.30, the1 lowest since Dec. 31.Brent crude extended its rebound on speculation that a 25 percent drop from this years high was excessive. West Texas Intermediate was little changed after falling below $80 yesterday. Brent pared its fourth weekly loss.Brent for December settlement increased 34 cents to end at $86.16 on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices touched a four-year low of $82.60 yesterday before closing up 0.8 percent. Prices are down 4.5 percent this week and 22 percent this year.WTI for November delivery gained 5 cents to $82.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices dropped below $80 yesterday for the first time since 2012 before ending up 1.1 percent. The futures are down 3.6 percent this week and 16 percent in 2014.Brent traded at a premium of $4.10 to WTI for December on ICE, compared with a front-month spread of $4.39 at the end of last week.Brent Crude Extends Rebound on Speculation Drop ExcessiveCopper Still under Radar of Bears as Global Growth Concerns Remains.Copper still under radar of bears as the global growth concerns remained on the top of agenda. On the economic front, a Federal Reserve report on Thursday showed industrial production in the U.S. rebounded much more than expected in September, after an unexpected drop in production in the previous month.The Federal Reserve said industrial production in the U.S. surged by 1.0 percent in September after edging down by a revised 0.2 percent in August. A report from the National Association of Home Builders showed homebuilder confidence in the U.S. to have deteriorated notably in October, with the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropping to 54 in October after jumping to a nearly nine-year high of 59 in September. In a separate news, Society of Indian Automobiles Association (SIAM) release has shown that sales of two wheelers registering a sharp appreciation even the production of passenger vehicles increased sharply. The industry produced a total 2227140 vehicles including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, three wheelers and two wheelers in September 2014 as against 1818753 in September 2013, registering a growth of 22.45 percent over the same month last year. MCX Copper was trading at Rs 407.55 per kg, down 0.35 percent. The prices have tested a high of Rs 408.65 per kg, and a low of Rs 404.5 per kg. COMEX Copper was trading at $ 2.97 per pound, down 0.04.Gold Falls for Second Day on U.S., Europe Equity Gains. 3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUSOct 21 7:30pmExisting Home Sales5.11M5.05MOct 22 6:00pmCore CPI m/m0.2%0.0%6:00pmCPI m/m0.0%-0.2%8:00pmCrude Oil Inventories8.9MOct 23 6:00pmUnemployment Claims269K264K6:30pmHPI m/m0.4%0.1%7:15pmFlash Manufacturing PMI57.257.57:30pmCB Leading Index m/m0.8%0.2%8:00pmNatural Gas Storage94BOct 24 7:30pmNew Home Sales473K504K 4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R327050 26735 26470 27455 27760 28065S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R338130 37200 36000 39400 40500 41550T E C H N I C A L V I E WMCX GOLD showed strength in wholeweek, gave breakout of double bottompattern and test the resistance of27500 but not able to maintains abovethe resistance level of 38.2%retracement. Now, if it able tomaintains above 27610 then next vitalresistance is seen near thepsychological level of 28000. Contraryif it sustain below 27050 then nextsupport is seen around 26500.S T R A T E G YBetter strategy in MCX GOLD is to buyabove 27650 for the target of 28050with stop loss of 27000.PIVOT TABLEG O L DPIVOT TABLES I L V E RT E C H N I C A L V I E WMCX SILVER on daily charts showedsideways movement and trades belowits important resistance level i.e.39400. Now, if it sustain below 38000then next support is seen in the rangeof 37000-36000. On higher side 39500is act as important resistance level forit above which it may test thepsychological level of 40000.S T R A T E G YBetter strategy in MCX SILVER at thispoint of time is to sell below 37900 fortarget of 36000, with stop loss of 39500. 5. C R U D E O I LC O P P E RS1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R34940 4795 4665 5200 5375 5525S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3404.20 398.45 391.80 414.40 420.50 427.05T E C H N I C A L V I E WMCX Copper last week showed highlyvolatile movement found resistancearound upper band and broke lowerband of triangle pattern but unable toclosed below it. Now, if it showreversal from lower band thenimmediate resistance is seen around61.8% retracement i.e. 412 abovewhich it may test upper band oftriangle. On lower side psychologicallevel of 400 is act as strong support.S T R A T E G YBetter strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is tosell below 5000 for the targets of 4800,with stop loss of 5300.PIVOT TABLET E C H N I C A L V I E WMCX Crude oil last week showed freefall after breakout of its importantsupport level i.e. 5130 and also brokepsychological level of 5000 but unableto close below it. Now, again if itbreaks support of 5000 and closedbelow it then it is in weak zone andmay find next support around 4850. Ifsome correction occurs then 5200 isact as immediate resistance for it.S T R A T E G YBetter strategy in MCX COPPER is to sellbelow 404, with stop loss of 415 for thetargets of 395.PIVOT TABLE 6. WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM DISCLAIMER