23 MAR – 27 MAR 2015

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W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

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MAJOR EVENTS Gold stayed elevated today on follow up buying. The metal approached its two week

highstoday. Demand worries have ensured that the metal does not extend a smart

rally post theUS FOMC meet earlier this week. On Wednesday, the COMEX Gold

futures jumped along withequities as the FOMC statement removed the word

“patient” regarding when todecide to raise interest rates. However, the statement

also pointed out some weaker USeconomic data recently, indicating that the Fed may

not be able to raise interest rates assoon as it would have liked. The COMEX gold

futures had dropped under $1150 per ounce tomark another four month low earlier.

A strong wave of buying lifted the metal from these levels though the

counterconsistently failed to hold on above $1170 per ounce mark. The COMEX Gold

futures arequoting at $1175 per ounce, up $5 per ounce on the day. A mixed outing in

the Asian stocksand weakness in crude oil prices are keeping a tab on the yellow

metal. MCX Gold futuresare trading at Rs 25977 per 10 grams on the day, up Rs 1 per

10 grams on the day. Thecounter hit a high above the critical Rs 26k per 10 grams

mark.

Oil prices tumbled on Thursday as a rebounding dollar and Kuwait's stance that OPEC

had no choice but to keep producing in an oversupplied market undercut the

previous day's rally.

Benchmark Brent oil settled down nearly 3 per cent while US crude lost almost 2 per

cent, weighed by the dollar's rise against most currencies.

In the previous session, Brent rose nearly 5 per cent and US crude about 3 per cent as

the dollar suffered its biggest one-day tumble in 18 months on disappointment over

the lack of a clear timeline for a US interest rate hike. A stronger dollar weakens

demand from holders of other currencies for commodities denominated in the

greenback. The reverse is the case when the dollar declines. Brent's price swung as

the dollar rose and fell against the euro. The market did trade on fundamentals after

the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the deadly attack on Tunisia's museums

and the White House said nuclear talks on Iran were ongoing and no draft document

had been circulated yet on a deal.

Oil falls as US

dollar up, Kuwait

sees OPEC output

steady.

Copper Gains On

Halt In Grasberg

Production and Fall

In Dollar.

The prices of Copper have been underpinned by the halt in production of Grasberg

mine. Domestic Copper April expiry futures was trading at Rs 374.25 per kg, stunning

the bears soon after the market was hit by the news of production disruption. The

metal has been quite volatile in last few weeks. The prices of Copper tested a high of

Rs 375.35 per kg and a low of Rs 367.8 per kg.

Also boosting copper was news from Indonesia that production has been halted at the

Grasberg mine, one of the world's biggest, as workers blocked an access road to the

site for a fourth day. The protest by workers has not affected copper treatment fees so

far, but could if it drags on, an Asia-based concentrates trader said. Meanwhile, Dollar

slipped lower against a basket of other major currencies on Friday, as the Federal

Reserve's latest policy statement still left the greenback. The dollar remained fragile

after the Fed indicated on Wednesday that U.S. economic growth has moderated and

that interest rates will rise at a slower pace than previously forecast. In a statement

following its monetary policy meeting, the U.S. central bank also downgraded its

forecasts for growth and inflation. The greenback's strength against a trade-weighted

basket of six major currencies was down 0.20% to 99.25.

Gold Buoyed On

Follow Up

Buying, MCX

Futures Test Rs

26K.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Mar 23 7:30pm Existing Home Sales 4.91M 4.82M

9:50pm FOMC Member Fischer Speaks

Mar 24 6:45am FOMC Member Williams Speaks

6:00pm CPI m/m 0.2% -0.7%

6:00pm Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%

6:30pm HPI m/m 0.5% 0.8%

7:15pm Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.9 55.1

7:30pm New Home Sales 472K 481K

7:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 2 0

Mar 25 4:00pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks

6:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% 0.0%

6:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.2% 2.8%

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 9.6M

Mar 26 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 295K 291K

6:30pm FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

7:15pm Flash Services PMI 57.2 57.1

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage -45B

Mar 27 4:00pm FOMC Member Fischer Speaks

6:00pm Final GDP q/q 2.4% 2.2%

6:00pm Final GDP Price Index q/q 0.1% 0.1%

7:30pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 92.5 91.2

7:30pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.0%

Mar 28 1:15am Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

25950 25500 25000 26380 26870 27301

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

36450 34885 33490 38475 39650 40965

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed upward

movement, broke downward channel

pattern and closed above its

psychological resistance level of 26000.

Now, if it is able to maintain above

26000 then next major resistance level

is seen around 26750. On other hand

sustaining below 25900 bearish

movement may drag it towards the

support level of 25500.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

below 25900 for the targets of 25500-

25200 with stop loss of 26500.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER on daily charts showed

bullish movement last week, gave

breakout of downward channel pattern

on higher side and found resistance

around 38000. Now, if it maintains

above 38000 then next resistance is

seen in the range of 39000-39500. On

lower side sustaining below 36500 will

again drag it towards the support level

of 35000.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to buy above 38100 for

the target of 39500, with stop loss of

36400.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

2790 2600 2400 3040 3260 3490

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

375.75 363.75 352.75 389.80 399 407.90

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week showed

sideways movement broke its

important resistance level of 375.50

and closed to near resistance level of

385. Now, if it maintains above 385

then next resistance will be seen in the

range of 390-395. On the other hand if

it sustain below 375 support level then

it will again drag towards support level

of 363.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

sell on highs for the target of 2650, with

stop loss of 3350.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week showed

sideways movement, sustain below its

important support level of 3000 and

also gave closing below it. Now, if it

close below 2900 in coming sessions

then next important support level is

seen around 2650. On the other hand

if it maintain above 3000 then again it

will lead towards next resistance level

of 3340.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy

on dips, with stop loss of 369 for the

target of 395.

PIVOT TABLE

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