Weekly Charts Newsletter - Thomson...
Transcript of Weekly Charts Newsletter - Thomson...
Weekly Charts Newsletter
March 28, 2016
© 2016 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. This content is provided as general information only and does not constitute investment advice or a representation that any investment, security or other product is suitable for any person. This content reflects the opinions only of the author and cannot be interpreted as the views of Thomson Reuters. This content is the intellectual property of Thomson Reuters and its affiliates. Any copying, distribution or redistribution of this content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Thomson Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world.
The Weekly Charts Newsletter provides my trade ideas,
model signals, and relative and absolute charts for all major
asset classes.
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Author: Cornelius Luca
Global Chief Technical Analyst
Eikon Charting Product Manager
Tel: +1 646 223 4660
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 1
Visit the Technical Analysis Landing Page TA App
2
• Commodities Metals Trade Idea – Relative 22
• Commodities Metals Trade Idea – Absolute 23
• Softs Relative Performance % vs. S&P GSCI Agros 24
• Commodities Softs Trade Idea – Relative 25
• Commodities Softs Trade Idea - Absolute 26
• Major 10-year Treasury Yields Models Daily & Weekly 27
• Major 10-year Treasury Yields 28
• US 10-year Treasury Yield 29
• Major 10-year Treasury Yield Trade Idea 30
• G7 & BRICS Index Models – Daily & Weekly 31
• G-7 Indices versus the MSCI (RRG) 32
• Indexes - G-7 Trade Idea - Relative 33
• Indexes - G-7 Trade Idea – Absolute 34
• S&P500 Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) 35
• VIX 36
• BRICS Indexes Trade Idea - Relative 37
• BRICS Indexes Trade Idea - Absolute 38
• What Do You Think About This? 39
• How to Use the Heat Maps for Model Signals 40
• Bird’s Eye View Cross-Asset 3
• Trade Ideas - All Major Asset Classes 4
• FX Major Models – Daily & Weekly 5
• FX Emerging Models – Daily & Weekly 6
• FX Major Currencies Trade Idea – Relative 7
• FX Major Currencies Trade Idea – Absolute 8
• FX Asia Trade Idea - Relative 9
• FX Asia Trade Idea - Absolute 10
• FX LatAm Trade Idea - Relative 11
• FX LatAm Trade Idea - Absolute 12
• FX South Africa - Absolute 13
• Commodities Models – Daily & Weekly 14
• Commodities Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) 15
• Energy Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) 16
• Commodities Energy Trade Idea – Relative 17
• Commodities Energy Trade Idea – Absolute 18
• Commodities European Energy Markets – Relative 19
• Commodities European Energy Markets – Absolute 20
• Metals Relative Performance % vs. S&P GSCI Metals 21
CONTENTS
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016
Comment:
• This is a one-month rebased
chart of the representative
markets from each major asset
class:
1. Equity Index: S&P 500 (.SPX)
2. Commodities Index
(.TRJCRBTR)
3. FX: Dollar Index (.DXY)
4. Fixed Income: U.S. 10-year
treasury yield (US10YT=RR)
• The strongest: Commodities
Index
• The weakest: Dollar Index
• All major markets, but the Dollar
Index, are still over performing in
1 month.
•
Bird’s Eye View Cross-Asset
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 3
Equity Indexes • G7: Long Nikkei 225 while above the cloud
• BRICS: Long Bovespa while above its 21-day
EMA
Major 10-Year Treasury Yields • Short German bund while below the 10-day EMA
FX • Majors: Long dollar/yen while above the 21-day
EMA
• Asia: Short dollar/Malaysian ringgit while below
the 21-day EMA
• LatAm: Short dollar/Colombian peso while
below the 10-day EMA
• South Africa: Short dollar/rand while below the
21-day EMA
Trade Ideas For Each Major Asset Class
Commodities • Energy: Long unleaded gasoline while above the
10-day EMA
• European Energy Markets: Long Coal Future
while above the 21-day EMA
• Metals: Short gold while below the 21-day EMA
• Softs: Long orange juice while above the 21-day
EMA
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 4
S
ou
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: Me
taS
tock
Pro
Mo
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g/Op
timizatio
n/Fo
recaster
L = long
S = short
FX Majors Model Signals – Daily & Weekly
5 Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016
FX Daily
Model since
Daily Bias
(> or <
21-day EMA)
Daily Risk
(Candle
Shape)
Weekly
Model since
Weekly Bias
(> or <
21-week
EMA)
Weekly Risk
(Candle
Shape)
Majors EUR/USD S 18-Mar slightly
bullish
slightly
bearish S 25-Mar
slightly
bullish
slightly
bearish
GBP/USD S 21-Mar slightly
bearish
slightly
bearish S 21-Mar
slightly
bearish
slightly
bearish
AUD/USD S 23-Mar slightly
bullish
slightly
bearish S 25-Mar
slightly
bullish
slightly
bearish
NZD/USD S 21-Mar slightly
bearish
slightly
bearish S 25-Mar
slightly
bullish
slightly
bearish
USD/JPY L 21-Mar slightly
bullish
slightly
bullish L 23-Mar bearish
slightly
bullish
USD/CHF L 22-Mar slightly
bearish
slightly
bullish L 24-Mar bearish
slightly
bullish
USD/CAD L 23-Mar sideways slightly
bullish L 25-Mar
slightly
bearish
slightly
bullish
Crosses EUR/JPY L 24-Mar slightly
bullish
slightly
bullish L 25-Mar
slightly
bearish
slightly
bullish
EUR/GBP S 28-Mar slightly
bullish
slightly
bearish L 18-Mar
slightly
bullish
slightly
bullish
EUR/CHF S 28-Mar slightly
bearish
slightly
bearish S 18-Mar sideways
slightly
bearish
GBP/JPY L 24-Mar sideways slightly
bearish L 28-Mar bearish
slightly
bullish
S
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Pro
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timizatio
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recaster
L = long
S = short
FX Emerging Model Signals – Daily & Weekly
6 Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016
FX Daily
Model since
Daily Bias
(> or <
21-day EMA)
Daily Risk
(Candle
Shape)
Weekly
Model since
Weekly Bias
(> or <
21-week EMA)
Weekly Risk
(Candle
Shape)
Asia USD/CNH L 21-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish L 21-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish
USD/INR L 28-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish L 25-Mar sideways slightly bullish
USD/HKD L 23-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish L 28-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish
USD/KRW L 23-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish L 28-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish
USD/SGD L 18-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish L 25-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish
USD/TWD L 28-Mar sideways slightly
bearish L 25-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish
USD/MYR L 24-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish S 29-Feb slightly bearish slightly bearish
USD/IDR L 21-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish L 21-Mar bearish slightly bullish
LatAm USD/MXN L 28-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish L 25-Mar sideways slightly bullish
USD/BRL L 23-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish L 25-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish
USD/COP L 23-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish S 19-Feb slightly bearish slightly bearish
USD/CLP L 23-Mar sideways slightly bullish L 25-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish
USD/PEN S 28-Mar slightly bearish slightly
bearish S 4-Mar sideways slightly bearish
S. Africa USD/ZAR L 23-Mar sideways slightly bullish L 21-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish
FX Major CURRENCIES Trade Idea –
Relative rebased 1-Month Trade idea: Long dollar/yen USD/JPY (JPY=) while above the 21-day exponential moving average
• Strongest: Australian dollar/U.S. dollar AUD/USD (AUD=)
• Weakest: Japanese yen/U.S. dollar JPY/USD (JPYUSD=R)
• All major foreign currencies are firm against the US dollar in 1-month, but off their best performance..
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 7
FX Major CURRENCIES Trade Idea - Absolute
Comment
Trade idea: Long USD/JPY while
above the 21-day EMA
• USD/JPY advanced in 6 of the past 7
days, distancing itself from a 5-month
low
• It’s challenging the 23.6% retracement
of the 12/18-3/17 downtrend
• USD/JPY trades above its 21-day EMA
• A potential triple bottom is in the works
• Initial resistance: 114.05
• Further resistance: 115.60 & 117.10
• Immediate support: 112.55
• Further support: 110.65
• Fast stochastics: Bullish
• MACD: Bullish crossover < 0
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 8
FX Asia Trade Idea – Relative - rebased 1-month
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 9
Trade idea: Short USD/MYR (MYR=) while below the 21-day exponential moving
average
• Strongest: USD/CNH (CNH=) and USD/IDR (IDR=)
• Weakest: USD/KRW (KRW=) and USD/MYR
• The U.S. dollar is weak against all Asian currencies on a 1-month basis .
FX Asia Trade Idea - Absolute
Comment •Trade idea: Short USD/MYR
while below the 21-day EMA
•The pair is trading off a 7 ½ -
month low
•It is trading below its declining
21-day EMA
•Immediate support: 3.9550
•Further support: 3.8970
•Initial resistance: 4.0830
•Further resistance: 4.1617
•Fast stochastics: Bullish
•MACD: Bearish
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 10
FX LatAm Trade Idea – Relative - rebased 1-month
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 11
Trade idea: Short USD/COP (COP=) while below the 10-day exponential moving
average
• Strongest: USD/CLP (CLP=)
• Weakest: USD/COP (COP=) and USD/BRL (BRL=)
• The U.S. dollar is weak against all of the LatAm currencies on a 1-month basis.
FX LatAm Trade Idea - Absolute Comment •Trade idea: Short USD/COP
while below the 10-day EMA
•USD/COP is attempting to
distance itself from a 4-month
low
•It’s holding well below the
declining 21-day EMA and is
oversold
•Immediate support: 3,024
•Further support: 2,941
•Initial resistance: 3,117
•Further resistance: 3,196
•Fast stochastics: Bullish
•MACD: Bearish
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 12
FX South Africa Trade Idea - Absolute Comment •Trade idea: Short USD/ZAR
(ZAR=) while below the 21-day
EMA
•USD/ZAR is marking time below
the declining 21-day EMA and
around the medium-term 50%
retracement
•It marked a 2 ½-month low on
3/10
•Immediate support: 15.0216
•Further support: 14.854 &
14.865 & 14.1515
•Initial resistance: 15.6315
•Distant resistance: 16.1800
•Fast stochastics: Bullish
•MACD: Slightly bearish
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 13
Commodities Model Signals – Daily & Weekly
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L = long
S = short
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016
Commodities Daily
Model since
Daily Bias
(> or <
21-day EMA)
Daily Risk
(Candle Shape)
Weekly
Model since
Weekly Bias (>
or < 21-
week EMA)
Weekly Risk
(Candle Shape)
Energy Crude (CLc1) L 28-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish L 22-Feb slightly bullish slightly bullish
Brent (LCOc1) L 28-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish L 28-Mar sideways slightly bullish
Natural gas (NGc1) S 25-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish S 25-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish
European EEX Phelix (F1BYc1) S 21-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish L 29-Feb bearish slightly bullish
Energy TRPC Nat Gas
(TRGBNBPSc1) L 21-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish L 19-Mar bearish slightly bullish
TRPC Nat Gas Seasonal
(TRNLTTFSc1) L 23-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish S 21-Mar bearish slightly bearish
Coal Future (ATWYc1) L 25-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish S 25-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish
ICE ECX EUA (CFI2Zc1) L 25-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish S 14-Mar bearish slightly bearish
Metals Gold (GCc1) S 23-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish S 18-Mar slightly bullish slightly bearish
Silver (SIc1) S 23-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish S 25-Mar slightly bullish bearish
Platinum (PLc1) S 23-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish S 25-Mar slightly bullish bearish
Copper (HGc1) S 21-Mar slightly bullish slightly bearish S 25-Mar slightly bullish bearish
Softs Coffee (KCc1) S 23-Mar slightly bullish slightly bearish S 25-Mar slightly bullish slightly bearish
Cocoa (LCCc1) S 18-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish S 25-Mar sideways neutral
Soy meal (SMc1) L 21-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish L 25-Mar sideways neutral
Wheat (Wc1) L 28-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish L 11-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish
Corn (Cc1) S 28-Mar slightly bullish slightly bearish L 7-Mar sideways slightly bullish
Commodities Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) – Daily Comment
• Strongest: Sugar (SBc1)
• Weakest: Gold (XAU=)
• Ready to pop: n.a.
• (RRG: Daily & 5-day trail)
• PLEASE TEST OTHER
INTERVALS AS WELL
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 15
Comment
• Strongest: All oil energy
• Weakest: Natural gas
(NGc1)
• Ready to pop: n.a.
• (RRG: Daily & 5-day
trail)
• PLEASE TEST OTHER
INTERVALS AS WELL
Energy Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) – Daily
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 16
Commodities Energy Trade Idea – Relative rebased 1-month
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 17
Trade idea: Long unleaded gasoline (RBc1) while above the 10-day exponential moving
average
• Strongest: Unleaded gasoline (RBc1)
• Weakest: Natural gas (NGc1)
Most energy commodities are strong in the 1-month space.
Commodities Energy Trade Idea - Absolute
Comment • Trade idea: Long unleaded
gasoline (RBc1) while above
the 10-day EMA
• Unleaded gasoline is marking
time near a 7-month high after
gapping up on March 1
• It trades well above its rising 21-
day EMA and is overbought
• Initial resistance: 1.5134
• Further resistance: 1.5417 &
1.6460
• Initial support: 1.3896
• Further support: 1.3565
• Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
• MACD: Bearish crossover > 0
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 18
Commodities European Energy Markets – Relative rebased 1-month
• Trade idea: Long Coal Future (ATWYc1) while above the 21-day exponential moving average
• Strongest: Coal Future (ATWYc1)
• Weakest: ICE ECX EUA (CFI2Zc1)
• The European energy commodities are divergent in 1 month.
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 19
Commodities European Energy Trade Idea - Absolute
Comment • Trade idea: Long Coal Future
(ATWYc1) while above the 21-
day EMA
• The contract is firm near a 2-month
high
• It’s holding just above its rising 21-
day EMA
• Initial resistance: 42.70
• Further resistance: 44.08 & 44.42
• Initial support: 40.50
• Further support: 39.35
• Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
• MACD: Bullish
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 20
Metals Relative Performance % vs. the S&P GSCI Metals Index
Comment:
• Strongest: Iron ore (TIOc1)
• Weakest: Gold (GCc1)
• Most metals are strong vs. the S&P GSCI Metals Index (.SPGSAM)
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 21
Commodities Metals Trade Idea – Relative rebased 1-month
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 22
Trade idea: Short gold while below the 21-day exponential moving average
• Strongest: Iron ore (TIOc1)
• Weakest: Gold (XAU=)
• All metals are rising in the 1-month interval.
Commodities Metals Trade Idea - Absolute
Comment Trade idea: Short gold while
below the 21-day EMA
• Gold slipped to a 5-week low from
a 13-month peak
• It’s trading below its declining 21-
day EMA
• Immediate support: 1,193
• Further support: 1,165
• Initial resistance: 1,232
• Further resistance: 1,248 & 1,283
• Fast stochastics: Bearish
• MACD: Bearish
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 23
Softs Relative Performance % vs. the S&P GSCI Agriculture Index
Comment
• Strongest: Coffee (KCc1)
• Weakest: Live cattle (LCc1)
• The softs are divergent vs. the S&P GSCI Agriculture Index (.SPGSAG)
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 24
Commodities Softs Trade Idea – Relative rebased 1-month
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 25
Trade idea: Long orange juice (OJc1) while above the 21-day exponential moving average
• Strongest: Sugar (SBc1) and coffee (KCc1)
• Weakest: Lean hogs (LHc1) and live cattle (LCc1)
Most softs are strong in the 1-month space.
Commodities Softs Trade Idea - Absolute Comment Trade idea: Long orange juice
while above the 21-day EMA
• Orange juice advanced to a 6-week
high
• It holds well above its rising 21-day
EMA and is overbought
• Initial resistance: 138.83
• Further resistance: 147.19
• Immediate support: 132.07
• Further support: 125.30
• Fast stochastics: Bullish
• MACD: Bullish
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 26
L = long
S = short
Major 10-year Treasury Yields Model Signals Daily & Weekly
27 Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016
So
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eta
Sto
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Pro
Mo
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ack te
sting/O
ptim
ization
/Forecaster
10-Year Yields Daily
Model since
Daily Bias
(> or <
21-day EMA)
Daily Risk
(Candle
Shape)
Weekly
Model since
Weekly Bias
(> or <
21-week
EMA)
Weekly Risk
(Candle
Shape)
US US10YT=RR L 24-Mar slightly
bullish
slightly
bullish L 24-Mar slightly
bearish
slightly
bearish
Germany DE10YT=RR S 18-Mar slightly
bearish
slightly
bearish S 14-Mar slightly
bearish
slightly
bearish
UK DE10YT=RR L 24-Mar slightly
bearish
slightly
bullish S 17-Mar slightly
bearish
slightly
bearish
Japan JY10YT=RR S 25-Mar slightly
bearish
slightly
bearish S 14-Mar bearish bearish
Italy IT10YT=RR L 23-Mar slightly
bearish
slightly
bullish L 28-Mar slightly
bearish
slightly
bullish
Spain ES10YR=RR L 23-Mar slightly
bearish
slightly
bullish L 24-Mar slightly
bearish
slightly
bullish
Major 10-year Treasury Yields
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 28
Comment
Trade idea: Short
German bund
(DE10YT=RR) while
below the 10-day
exponential moving
average
• Highest yield: Australia
(AU10YT=RR)
• Lowest yield: Switzerland
(CH10YT=RR)
• The 10-year yields are
divergent in the short run
US 10-year Treasury Yield Comment
• The US Treasury yield is
consolidating around the 21-
day EMA
• It bottomed at a 3 ½ -
reversed from 1 ½-month
high and year low on 2/11
• Immediate support: 1.8337
Further support: 1.8040 &
1.7506
• Initial resistance: 1.9540
• Further resistance: 2.0213
• Fast stochastics: Slightly
bullish
• MACD: Slightly bullish
29 Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016
10-year Treasury Yield Trade Idea - Absolute Comment Trade idea: Short German
bund (DE10YT=RR) while
below the 10-day EMA
• The yield is slipping and briefly
edged below the range of 3/10
(harami)
• It formed a medium-term
bottom on 3/4
• It trades below its 21-day EMA
• Immediate support: .16
• Further support: .103
• Initial resistance: .254
• Further resistance: .33
• Fast stochastics: Bearish
• MACD: Neutral around 0
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 30
L = long
S = short
Indexes Model Signals – Daily & Weekly
31 Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016
So
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eta
Sto
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Pro
Mo
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ack testin
g/Op
timizatio
n/Fo
recaster
Indexes Daily
Model since
Daily Bias
(> or <
21-day EMA)
Daily Risk
(Candle
Shape)
Weekly
Model since
Weekly Bias
(> or <
21-week EMA)
Weekly Risk
(Candle
Shape)
G7 S&P 500 (.SPX) S 23-Mar bullish slightly
bearish L 17-Feb bullish bullish
Germany (.GDAXI) S 24-Mar slightly
bullish
slightly
bearish S 24-Mar sideways
slightly
bearish
UK (.FTSE) S 25-Mar sideways slightly
bearish S 24-Mar sideways
slightly
bearish
Japan (.N225) L 25-Mar slightly
bullish
slightly
bullish L 25-Mar
slightly
bearish
slightly
bullish
France (.FCHI) S 21-Mar slightly
bearish
slightly
bullish S 24-Mar
slightly
bearish
slightly
bearish
Canada (.GSPTE) S 22-Mar slightly
bullish
slightly
bearish S 24-Mar
slightly
bearish
slightly
bearish
Italy (.FTMIB) S 23-Mar slightly
bearish
slightly
bearish L 21-Mar
slightly
bearish
slightly
bearish
BRICS Brazil (.BVSP) S 23-Mar slightly
bullish
slightly
bearish S 24-Mar
slightly
bullish
slightly
bearish
Russia (.IRTS) L 25-Mar bullish slightly
bullish S 24-Mar
slightly
bullish
slightly
bearish
India (.BSESN) S 28-Mar slightly
bullish
slightly
bearish L 4-Mar
slightly
bullish
slightly
bullish
China (.SSE50) L 28-Mar slightly
bullish
slightly
bullish L 14-Mar sideways neutral
S. Africa (.JALSH) S 22-Mar slightly
bullish
slightly
bearish S 23-Mar
slightly
bullish
slightly
bearish
G-7 Indices vs. MSCI Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) – Daily
Comment
• Strongest index: Germany
• Weakest index: U.K.
• Ready to pop: n.a.
• PLEASE TEST OTHER INTERVALS AS WELL
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 32
Indexes - G-7 Trade Idea – Relative rebased 1-month Trade idea: Long Japan’s Nikkei 225 (.N225) while above the cloud
• Strongest: Japan (.N225)
• Weakest: U.K (.FTSE)
• All G7 indexes are over performing in 1-month.
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 33
Indexes - G-7 Trade Idea - Absolute
Comment:
Trade idea: Long Nikkei 225
while above the cloud
• The Nikkei is consolidating just
above the cloud
• It trades between the 38.2% &
23.6% retracements
• Initial resistance: 17,291
• Further resistance: 18,042
• Immediate support: 16,961
• Further support: 15,632
• Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
• MACD: Slightly bullish
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 34
S&P500 Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) – Daily
Comment
• Strongest sectors: Industrials,
information, materials
• Weakest sector: Health care
• Ready to pop: Utilities
• PLEASE TEST OTHER INTERVALS AS WELL
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 35
VIX
Comment
• VIX remains under pressure
• It trades below the 21-day
exponential moving average
• VIX reference points:
• Significant bottom at a 7 ½-
year low on 7/20/2015
• A 6-year high on 8/24
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 36
Indexes – BRICS Trade Idea – Relative rebased 1-month Trade idea: Long Brazil (.BVSP) while above its 21-day exponential moving average
• Strongest: Brazil (.BVSP)
• Weakest: South Africa (.JALSH)
• All BRICS indices are firm in 1 month
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 37
BRICS Indexes Trade Idea - Absolute Comment Trade idea: Long Brazil (.BVSP)
while above its 21-day EMA
• The Bovespa is trading off an
8-month high
• It trades just above its 21-day
EMA and above the 50%
retracement
• Initial resistance: 51,607
• Further resistance: 53,510 &
57,555
• Initial support: 48,738
• Further support: 46,684 &
45,3117
• Fast stochastics: Bearish
• MACD: Slightly bullish
Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 38
What Do You Think About This?
39 Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016
?
?
How to Use the Heat Map
40
So
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eta
Sto
ck
Pro
Mo
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g/Op
timizatio
n/Fo
recaster
L = long
S = short
Commodities Daily
Model since
Daily Bias
(> or <
21-day EMA)
Daily Risk Weekly
Model since
Weekly Bias
(> or <
21-day EMA)
Weekly Risk
Energy Crude (CLc1) S 27-Apr bullish slightly bullish L 23-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish
Brent (LCOc1) L 21-Apr slightly bullish slightly bullish L 6-Apr slightly bearish slightly bullish
Natural gas (NGc1) S 23-Apr bearish bearish S 20-Apr bearish slightly bearish
Palm oil (FCPOc1) L 24-Apr sideways neutral S 20-Apr slightly bearish slightly bearish
Metals Gold (GCc1) S 24-Apr bearish bearish S 20-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish
Silver (SIc1) S 22-Apr bearish bearish S 24-Apr bearish bearish
Platinum (PLc1) S 20-Apr bearish bearish S 20-Mar bearish slightly bullish
Copper (HGc1) L 24-Apr slightly bearish slightly bullish S 24-Apr slightly bearish slightly bearish
Softs Coffee (KCN5) L 24-Apr sideways neutral L 24-Apr slightly bullish slightly bullish
Cocoa (LCCN5) L 23-Apr bullish bullish L 13-Apr bullish bullish
Soy meal (SMN5) S 24-Apr bearish slightly bearish S 24-Apr bearish slightly bearish
Wheat (WN5) S 24-Apr bearish slightly bearish S 24-Apr bearish bearish
Corn (CN5) S 20-Apr bearish bearish S 6-Apr bearish bearish
Long or Short
Since when
Bias: If the Candle>21-period EMA = bullish
If the Candle<21-period EMA = bearish
If the Candle around 21-period EMA = sideways
Risk: Bullish or Bearish
Candle as of Monday am EST
THANK YOU
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Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 41