Weekly Charts Newsletter - Thomson...

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Weekly Charts Newsletter March 28, 2016 © 2016 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. This content is provided as general information only and does not constitute investment advice or a representation that any investment, security or other product is suitable for any person. This content reflects the opinions only of the author and cannot be interpreted as the views of Thomson Reuters. This content is the intellectual property of Thomson Reuters and its affiliates. Any copying, distribution or redistribution of this content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Thomson Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world. The Weekly Charts Newsletter provides my trade ideas, model signals, and relative and absolute charts for all major asset classes. . To receive an email notification for the next edition of the Monthly and Weekly Charts Newsletter please SUBSCRIBE. Author: Cornelius Luca Global Chief Technical Analyst Eikon Charting Product Manager Tel: +1 646 223 4660 Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 1 Visit the Technical Analysis Landing Page TA App

Transcript of Weekly Charts Newsletter - Thomson...

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Weekly Charts Newsletter

March 28, 2016

© 2016 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. This content is provided as general information only and does not constitute investment advice or a representation that any investment, security or other product is suitable for any person. This content reflects the opinions only of the author and cannot be interpreted as the views of Thomson Reuters. This content is the intellectual property of Thomson Reuters and its affiliates. Any copying, distribution or redistribution of this content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Thomson Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world.

The Weekly Charts Newsletter provides my trade ideas,

model signals, and relative and absolute charts for all major

asset classes.

.

To receive an email notification for the

next edition of the Monthly and Weekly

Charts Newsletter please SUBSCRIBE.

Author: Cornelius Luca

Global Chief Technical Analyst

Eikon Charting Product Manager

Tel: +1 646 223 4660

Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 1

Visit the Technical Analysis Landing Page TA App

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2

• Commodities Metals Trade Idea – Relative 22

• Commodities Metals Trade Idea – Absolute 23

• Softs Relative Performance % vs. S&P GSCI Agros 24

• Commodities Softs Trade Idea – Relative 25

• Commodities Softs Trade Idea - Absolute 26

• Major 10-year Treasury Yields Models Daily & Weekly 27

• Major 10-year Treasury Yields 28

• US 10-year Treasury Yield 29

• Major 10-year Treasury Yield Trade Idea 30

• G7 & BRICS Index Models – Daily & Weekly 31

• G-7 Indices versus the MSCI (RRG) 32

• Indexes - G-7 Trade Idea - Relative 33

• Indexes - G-7 Trade Idea – Absolute 34

• S&P500 Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) 35

• VIX 36

• BRICS Indexes Trade Idea - Relative 37

• BRICS Indexes Trade Idea - Absolute 38

• What Do You Think About This? 39

• How to Use the Heat Maps for Model Signals 40

• Bird’s Eye View Cross-Asset 3

• Trade Ideas - All Major Asset Classes 4

• FX Major Models – Daily & Weekly 5

• FX Emerging Models – Daily & Weekly 6

• FX Major Currencies Trade Idea – Relative 7

• FX Major Currencies Trade Idea – Absolute 8

• FX Asia Trade Idea - Relative 9

• FX Asia Trade Idea - Absolute 10

• FX LatAm Trade Idea - Relative 11

• FX LatAm Trade Idea - Absolute 12

• FX South Africa - Absolute 13

• Commodities Models – Daily & Weekly 14

• Commodities Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) 15

• Energy Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) 16

• Commodities Energy Trade Idea – Relative 17

• Commodities Energy Trade Idea – Absolute 18

• Commodities European Energy Markets – Relative 19

• Commodities European Energy Markets – Absolute 20

• Metals Relative Performance % vs. S&P GSCI Metals 21

CONTENTS

Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016

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Comment:

• This is a one-month rebased

chart of the representative

markets from each major asset

class:

1. Equity Index: S&P 500 (.SPX)

2. Commodities Index

(.TRJCRBTR)

3. FX: Dollar Index (.DXY)

4. Fixed Income: U.S. 10-year

treasury yield (US10YT=RR)

• The strongest: Commodities

Index

• The weakest: Dollar Index

• All major markets, but the Dollar

Index, are still over performing in

1 month.

Bird’s Eye View Cross-Asset

Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 3

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Equity Indexes • G7: Long Nikkei 225 while above the cloud

• BRICS: Long Bovespa while above its 21-day

EMA

Major 10-Year Treasury Yields • Short German bund while below the 10-day EMA

FX • Majors: Long dollar/yen while above the 21-day

EMA

• Asia: Short dollar/Malaysian ringgit while below

the 21-day EMA

• LatAm: Short dollar/Colombian peso while

below the 10-day EMA

• South Africa: Short dollar/rand while below the

21-day EMA

Trade Ideas For Each Major Asset Class

Commodities • Energy: Long unleaded gasoline while above the

10-day EMA

• European Energy Markets: Long Coal Future

while above the 21-day EMA

• Metals: Short gold while below the 21-day EMA

• Softs: Long orange juice while above the 21-day

EMA

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FX Majors Model Signals – Daily & Weekly

5 Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016

FX Daily

Model since

Daily Bias

(> or <

21-day EMA)

Daily Risk

(Candle

Shape)

Weekly

Model since

Weekly Bias

(> or <

21-week

EMA)

Weekly Risk

(Candle

Shape)

Majors EUR/USD S 18-Mar slightly

bullish

slightly

bearish S 25-Mar

slightly

bullish

slightly

bearish

GBP/USD S 21-Mar slightly

bearish

slightly

bearish S 21-Mar

slightly

bearish

slightly

bearish

AUD/USD S 23-Mar slightly

bullish

slightly

bearish S 25-Mar

slightly

bullish

slightly

bearish

NZD/USD S 21-Mar slightly

bearish

slightly

bearish S 25-Mar

slightly

bullish

slightly

bearish

USD/JPY L 21-Mar slightly

bullish

slightly

bullish L 23-Mar bearish

slightly

bullish

USD/CHF L 22-Mar slightly

bearish

slightly

bullish L 24-Mar bearish

slightly

bullish

USD/CAD L 23-Mar sideways slightly

bullish L 25-Mar

slightly

bearish

slightly

bullish

Crosses EUR/JPY L 24-Mar slightly

bullish

slightly

bullish L 25-Mar

slightly

bearish

slightly

bullish

EUR/GBP S 28-Mar slightly

bullish

slightly

bearish L 18-Mar

slightly

bullish

slightly

bullish

EUR/CHF S 28-Mar slightly

bearish

slightly

bearish S 18-Mar sideways

slightly

bearish

GBP/JPY L 24-Mar sideways slightly

bearish L 28-Mar bearish

slightly

bullish

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FX Emerging Model Signals – Daily & Weekly

6 Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016

FX Daily

Model since

Daily Bias

(> or <

21-day EMA)

Daily Risk

(Candle

Shape)

Weekly

Model since

Weekly Bias

(> or <

21-week EMA)

Weekly Risk

(Candle

Shape)

Asia USD/CNH L 21-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish L 21-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish

USD/INR L 28-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish L 25-Mar sideways slightly bullish

USD/HKD L 23-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish L 28-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish

USD/KRW L 23-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish L 28-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish

USD/SGD L 18-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish L 25-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish

USD/TWD L 28-Mar sideways slightly

bearish L 25-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish

USD/MYR L 24-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish S 29-Feb slightly bearish slightly bearish

USD/IDR L 21-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish L 21-Mar bearish slightly bullish

LatAm USD/MXN L 28-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish L 25-Mar sideways slightly bullish

USD/BRL L 23-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish L 25-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish

USD/COP L 23-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish S 19-Feb slightly bearish slightly bearish

USD/CLP L 23-Mar sideways slightly bullish L 25-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish

USD/PEN S 28-Mar slightly bearish slightly

bearish S 4-Mar sideways slightly bearish

S. Africa USD/ZAR L 23-Mar sideways slightly bullish L 21-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish

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FX Major CURRENCIES Trade Idea –

Relative rebased 1-Month Trade idea: Long dollar/yen USD/JPY (JPY=) while above the 21-day exponential moving average

• Strongest: Australian dollar/U.S. dollar AUD/USD (AUD=)

• Weakest: Japanese yen/U.S. dollar JPY/USD (JPYUSD=R)

• All major foreign currencies are firm against the US dollar in 1-month, but off their best performance..

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FX Major CURRENCIES Trade Idea - Absolute

Comment

Trade idea: Long USD/JPY while

above the 21-day EMA

• USD/JPY advanced in 6 of the past 7

days, distancing itself from a 5-month

low

• It’s challenging the 23.6% retracement

of the 12/18-3/17 downtrend

• USD/JPY trades above its 21-day EMA

• A potential triple bottom is in the works

• Initial resistance: 114.05

• Further resistance: 115.60 & 117.10

• Immediate support: 112.55

• Further support: 110.65

• Fast stochastics: Bullish

• MACD: Bullish crossover < 0

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FX Asia Trade Idea – Relative - rebased 1-month

Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 9

Trade idea: Short USD/MYR (MYR=) while below the 21-day exponential moving

average

• Strongest: USD/CNH (CNH=) and USD/IDR (IDR=)

• Weakest: USD/KRW (KRW=) and USD/MYR

• The U.S. dollar is weak against all Asian currencies on a 1-month basis .

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FX Asia Trade Idea - Absolute

Comment •Trade idea: Short USD/MYR

while below the 21-day EMA

•The pair is trading off a 7 ½ -

month low

•It is trading below its declining

21-day EMA

•Immediate support: 3.9550

•Further support: 3.8970

•Initial resistance: 4.0830

•Further resistance: 4.1617

•Fast stochastics: Bullish

•MACD: Bearish

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FX LatAm Trade Idea – Relative - rebased 1-month

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Trade idea: Short USD/COP (COP=) while below the 10-day exponential moving

average

• Strongest: USD/CLP (CLP=)

• Weakest: USD/COP (COP=) and USD/BRL (BRL=)

• The U.S. dollar is weak against all of the LatAm currencies on a 1-month basis.

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FX LatAm Trade Idea - Absolute Comment •Trade idea: Short USD/COP

while below the 10-day EMA

•USD/COP is attempting to

distance itself from a 4-month

low

•It’s holding well below the

declining 21-day EMA and is

oversold

•Immediate support: 3,024

•Further support: 2,941

•Initial resistance: 3,117

•Further resistance: 3,196

•Fast stochastics: Bullish

•MACD: Bearish

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FX South Africa Trade Idea - Absolute Comment •Trade idea: Short USD/ZAR

(ZAR=) while below the 21-day

EMA

•USD/ZAR is marking time below

the declining 21-day EMA and

around the medium-term 50%

retracement

•It marked a 2 ½-month low on

3/10

•Immediate support: 15.0216

•Further support: 14.854 &

14.865 & 14.1515

•Initial resistance: 15.6315

•Distant resistance: 16.1800

•Fast stochastics: Bullish

•MACD: Slightly bearish

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Commodities Model Signals – Daily & Weekly

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Commodities Daily

Model since

Daily Bias

(> or <

21-day EMA)

Daily Risk

(Candle Shape)

Weekly

Model since

Weekly Bias (>

or < 21-

week EMA)

Weekly Risk

(Candle Shape)

Energy Crude (CLc1) L 28-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish L 22-Feb slightly bullish slightly bullish

Brent (LCOc1) L 28-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish L 28-Mar sideways slightly bullish

Natural gas (NGc1) S 25-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish S 25-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish

European EEX Phelix (F1BYc1) S 21-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish L 29-Feb bearish slightly bullish

Energy TRPC Nat Gas

(TRGBNBPSc1) L 21-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish L 19-Mar bearish slightly bullish

TRPC Nat Gas Seasonal

(TRNLTTFSc1) L 23-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish S 21-Mar bearish slightly bearish

Coal Future (ATWYc1) L 25-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish S 25-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish

ICE ECX EUA (CFI2Zc1) L 25-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish S 14-Mar bearish slightly bearish

Metals Gold (GCc1) S 23-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish S 18-Mar slightly bullish slightly bearish

Silver (SIc1) S 23-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish S 25-Mar slightly bullish bearish

Platinum (PLc1) S 23-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish S 25-Mar slightly bullish bearish

Copper (HGc1) S 21-Mar slightly bullish slightly bearish S 25-Mar slightly bullish bearish

Softs Coffee (KCc1) S 23-Mar slightly bullish slightly bearish S 25-Mar slightly bullish slightly bearish

Cocoa (LCCc1) S 18-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish S 25-Mar sideways neutral

Soy meal (SMc1) L 21-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish L 25-Mar sideways neutral

Wheat (Wc1) L 28-Mar slightly bullish slightly bullish L 11-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish

Corn (Cc1) S 28-Mar slightly bullish slightly bearish L 7-Mar sideways slightly bullish

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Commodities Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) – Daily Comment

• Strongest: Sugar (SBc1)

• Weakest: Gold (XAU=)

• Ready to pop: n.a.

• (RRG: Daily & 5-day trail)

• PLEASE TEST OTHER

INTERVALS AS WELL

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Comment

• Strongest: All oil energy

• Weakest: Natural gas

(NGc1)

• Ready to pop: n.a.

• (RRG: Daily & 5-day

trail)

• PLEASE TEST OTHER

INTERVALS AS WELL

Energy Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) – Daily

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Commodities Energy Trade Idea – Relative rebased 1-month

Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 17

Trade idea: Long unleaded gasoline (RBc1) while above the 10-day exponential moving

average

• Strongest: Unleaded gasoline (RBc1)

• Weakest: Natural gas (NGc1)

Most energy commodities are strong in the 1-month space.

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Commodities Energy Trade Idea - Absolute

Comment • Trade idea: Long unleaded

gasoline (RBc1) while above

the 10-day EMA

• Unleaded gasoline is marking

time near a 7-month high after

gapping up on March 1

• It trades well above its rising 21-

day EMA and is overbought

• Initial resistance: 1.5134

• Further resistance: 1.5417 &

1.6460

• Initial support: 1.3896

• Further support: 1.3565

• Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish

• MACD: Bearish crossover > 0

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Commodities European Energy Markets – Relative rebased 1-month

• Trade idea: Long Coal Future (ATWYc1) while above the 21-day exponential moving average

• Strongest: Coal Future (ATWYc1)

• Weakest: ICE ECX EUA (CFI2Zc1)

• The European energy commodities are divergent in 1 month.

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Commodities European Energy Trade Idea - Absolute

Comment • Trade idea: Long Coal Future

(ATWYc1) while above the 21-

day EMA

• The contract is firm near a 2-month

high

• It’s holding just above its rising 21-

day EMA

• Initial resistance: 42.70

• Further resistance: 44.08 & 44.42

• Initial support: 40.50

• Further support: 39.35

• Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish

• MACD: Bullish

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Metals Relative Performance % vs. the S&P GSCI Metals Index

Comment:

• Strongest: Iron ore (TIOc1)

• Weakest: Gold (GCc1)

• Most metals are strong vs. the S&P GSCI Metals Index (.SPGSAM)

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Commodities Metals Trade Idea – Relative rebased 1-month

Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 22

Trade idea: Short gold while below the 21-day exponential moving average

• Strongest: Iron ore (TIOc1)

• Weakest: Gold (XAU=)

• All metals are rising in the 1-month interval.

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Commodities Metals Trade Idea - Absolute

Comment Trade idea: Short gold while

below the 21-day EMA

• Gold slipped to a 5-week low from

a 13-month peak

• It’s trading below its declining 21-

day EMA

• Immediate support: 1,193

• Further support: 1,165

• Initial resistance: 1,232

• Further resistance: 1,248 & 1,283

• Fast stochastics: Bearish

• MACD: Bearish

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Softs Relative Performance % vs. the S&P GSCI Agriculture Index

Comment

• Strongest: Coffee (KCc1)

• Weakest: Live cattle (LCc1)

• The softs are divergent vs. the S&P GSCI Agriculture Index (.SPGSAG)

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Commodities Softs Trade Idea – Relative rebased 1-month

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Trade idea: Long orange juice (OJc1) while above the 21-day exponential moving average

• Strongest: Sugar (SBc1) and coffee (KCc1)

• Weakest: Lean hogs (LHc1) and live cattle (LCc1)

Most softs are strong in the 1-month space.

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Commodities Softs Trade Idea - Absolute Comment Trade idea: Long orange juice

while above the 21-day EMA

• Orange juice advanced to a 6-week

high

• It holds well above its rising 21-day

EMA and is overbought

• Initial resistance: 138.83

• Further resistance: 147.19

• Immediate support: 132.07

• Further support: 125.30

• Fast stochastics: Bullish

• MACD: Bullish

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L = long

S = short

Major 10-year Treasury Yields Model Signals Daily & Weekly

27 Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016

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10-Year Yields Daily

Model since

Daily Bias

(> or <

21-day EMA)

Daily Risk

(Candle

Shape)

Weekly

Model since

Weekly Bias

(> or <

21-week

EMA)

Weekly Risk

(Candle

Shape)

US US10YT=RR L 24-Mar slightly

bullish

slightly

bullish L 24-Mar slightly

bearish

slightly

bearish

Germany DE10YT=RR S 18-Mar slightly

bearish

slightly

bearish S 14-Mar slightly

bearish

slightly

bearish

UK DE10YT=RR L 24-Mar slightly

bearish

slightly

bullish S 17-Mar slightly

bearish

slightly

bearish

Japan JY10YT=RR S 25-Mar slightly

bearish

slightly

bearish S 14-Mar bearish bearish

Italy IT10YT=RR L 23-Mar slightly

bearish

slightly

bullish L 28-Mar slightly

bearish

slightly

bullish

Spain ES10YR=RR L 23-Mar slightly

bearish

slightly

bullish L 24-Mar slightly

bearish

slightly

bullish

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Major 10-year Treasury Yields

Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 28

Comment

Trade idea: Short

German bund

(DE10YT=RR) while

below the 10-day

exponential moving

average

• Highest yield: Australia

(AU10YT=RR)

• Lowest yield: Switzerland

(CH10YT=RR)

• The 10-year yields are

divergent in the short run

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US 10-year Treasury Yield Comment

• The US Treasury yield is

consolidating around the 21-

day EMA

• It bottomed at a 3 ½ -

reversed from 1 ½-month

high and year low on 2/11

• Immediate support: 1.8337

Further support: 1.8040 &

1.7506

• Initial resistance: 1.9540

• Further resistance: 2.0213

• Fast stochastics: Slightly

bullish

• MACD: Slightly bullish

29 Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016

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10-year Treasury Yield Trade Idea - Absolute Comment Trade idea: Short German

bund (DE10YT=RR) while

below the 10-day EMA

• The yield is slipping and briefly

edged below the range of 3/10

(harami)

• It formed a medium-term

bottom on 3/4

• It trades below its 21-day EMA

• Immediate support: .16

• Further support: .103

• Initial resistance: .254

• Further resistance: .33

• Fast stochastics: Bearish

• MACD: Neutral around 0

Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 30

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L = long

S = short

Indexes Model Signals – Daily & Weekly

31 Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016

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Indexes Daily

Model since

Daily Bias

(> or <

21-day EMA)

Daily Risk

(Candle

Shape)

Weekly

Model since

Weekly Bias

(> or <

21-week EMA)

Weekly Risk

(Candle

Shape)

G7 S&P 500 (.SPX) S 23-Mar bullish slightly

bearish L 17-Feb bullish bullish

Germany (.GDAXI) S 24-Mar slightly

bullish

slightly

bearish S 24-Mar sideways

slightly

bearish

UK (.FTSE) S 25-Mar sideways slightly

bearish S 24-Mar sideways

slightly

bearish

Japan (.N225) L 25-Mar slightly

bullish

slightly

bullish L 25-Mar

slightly

bearish

slightly

bullish

France (.FCHI) S 21-Mar slightly

bearish

slightly

bullish S 24-Mar

slightly

bearish

slightly

bearish

Canada (.GSPTE) S 22-Mar slightly

bullish

slightly

bearish S 24-Mar

slightly

bearish

slightly

bearish

Italy (.FTMIB) S 23-Mar slightly

bearish

slightly

bearish L 21-Mar

slightly

bearish

slightly

bearish

BRICS Brazil (.BVSP) S 23-Mar slightly

bullish

slightly

bearish S 24-Mar

slightly

bullish

slightly

bearish

Russia (.IRTS) L 25-Mar bullish slightly

bullish S 24-Mar

slightly

bullish

slightly

bearish

India (.BSESN) S 28-Mar slightly

bullish

slightly

bearish L 4-Mar

slightly

bullish

slightly

bullish

China (.SSE50) L 28-Mar slightly

bullish

slightly

bullish L 14-Mar sideways neutral

S. Africa (.JALSH) S 22-Mar slightly

bullish

slightly

bearish S 23-Mar

slightly

bullish

slightly

bearish

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G-7 Indices vs. MSCI Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) – Daily

Comment

• Strongest index: Germany

• Weakest index: U.K.

• Ready to pop: n.a.

• PLEASE TEST OTHER INTERVALS AS WELL

Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 32

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Indexes - G-7 Trade Idea – Relative rebased 1-month Trade idea: Long Japan’s Nikkei 225 (.N225) while above the cloud

• Strongest: Japan (.N225)

• Weakest: U.K (.FTSE)

• All G7 indexes are over performing in 1-month.

Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 33

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Indexes - G-7 Trade Idea - Absolute

Comment:

Trade idea: Long Nikkei 225

while above the cloud

• The Nikkei is consolidating just

above the cloud

• It trades between the 38.2% &

23.6% retracements

• Initial resistance: 17,291

• Further resistance: 18,042

• Immediate support: 16,961

• Further support: 15,632

• Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish

• MACD: Slightly bullish

Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 34

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S&P500 Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) – Daily

Comment

• Strongest sectors: Industrials,

information, materials

• Weakest sector: Health care

• Ready to pop: Utilities

• PLEASE TEST OTHER INTERVALS AS WELL

Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 35

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VIX

Comment

• VIX remains under pressure

• It trades below the 21-day

exponential moving average

• VIX reference points:

• Significant bottom at a 7 ½-

year low on 7/20/2015

• A 6-year high on 8/24

Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 36

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Indexes – BRICS Trade Idea – Relative rebased 1-month Trade idea: Long Brazil (.BVSP) while above its 21-day exponential moving average

• Strongest: Brazil (.BVSP)

• Weakest: South Africa (.JALSH)

• All BRICS indices are firm in 1 month

Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 37

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BRICS Indexes Trade Idea - Absolute Comment Trade idea: Long Brazil (.BVSP)

while above its 21-day EMA

• The Bovespa is trading off an

8-month high

• It trades just above its 21-day

EMA and above the 50%

retracement

• Initial resistance: 51,607

• Further resistance: 53,510 &

57,555

• Initial support: 48,738

• Further support: 46,684 &

45,3117

• Fast stochastics: Bearish

• MACD: Slightly bullish

Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 38

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What Do You Think About This?

39 Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016

?

?

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How to Use the Heat Map

40

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Commodities Daily

Model since

Daily Bias

(> or <

21-day EMA)

Daily Risk Weekly

Model since

Weekly Bias

(> or <

21-day EMA)

Weekly Risk

Energy Crude (CLc1) S 27-Apr bullish slightly bullish L 23-Mar slightly bearish slightly bullish

Brent (LCOc1) L 21-Apr slightly bullish slightly bullish L 6-Apr slightly bearish slightly bullish

Natural gas (NGc1) S 23-Apr bearish bearish S 20-Apr bearish slightly bearish

Palm oil (FCPOc1) L 24-Apr sideways neutral S 20-Apr slightly bearish slightly bearish

Metals Gold (GCc1) S 24-Apr bearish bearish S 20-Mar slightly bearish slightly bearish

Silver (SIc1) S 22-Apr bearish bearish S 24-Apr bearish bearish

Platinum (PLc1) S 20-Apr bearish bearish S 20-Mar bearish slightly bullish

Copper (HGc1) L 24-Apr slightly bearish slightly bullish S 24-Apr slightly bearish slightly bearish

Softs Coffee (KCN5) L 24-Apr sideways neutral L 24-Apr slightly bullish slightly bullish

Cocoa (LCCN5) L 23-Apr bullish bullish L 13-Apr bullish bullish

Soy meal (SMN5) S 24-Apr bearish slightly bearish S 24-Apr bearish slightly bearish

Wheat (WN5) S 24-Apr bearish slightly bearish S 24-Apr bearish bearish

Corn (CN5) S 20-Apr bearish bearish S 6-Apr bearish bearish

Long or Short

Since when

Bias: If the Candle>21-period EMA = bullish

If the Candle<21-period EMA = bearish

If the Candle around 21-period EMA = sideways

Risk: Bullish or Bearish

Candle as of Monday am EST

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THANK YOU

Contact Cornelius Luca:

Tel: +1 646 223 4660

Email: [email protected]

Join Cornelius in the Global Markets Forum chat room on

Tuesdays, 9-10am EST.

Copy and paste this link into the search box in Eikon:

rmchat://room/thomsonreuters.com/Global_Markets_Forum

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Thomson Reuters Eikon - Weekly Charting Newsletter March 28, 2016 41