Week 2: Wednesday April 6, 2016 Paul Belanger Earth's past ......Earth's past climate history and...
Transcript of Week 2: Wednesday April 6, 2016 Paul Belanger Earth's past ......Earth's past climate history and...
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Earth’s Climate: Past, Present and Future;Concerns and Solutions
Week 2: Wednesday April 6, 2016Paul Belanger
Earth's past climate history and whatcaused those changes
1. Earth’s deep past before the Cambrian (600 MaBP): hot and cold2. Earth’s past: Cambrian onward: mostly hot-house Earth; 100s
parts per million (ppm)3. Climate trend in the Cenozoic – the last 65 million years; proxy
data from 3600ppm to <200 ppm.4. More recent past: 180-280 part per million; how do we know –
empirical data. Preview of next week’s field trip5. Today: 400 ppm and growing 2-3ppm/year
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But first
• A few thoughts / slides from last week
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SHORTER WAVE/HIGHER ENERGY LONGER WAVE/LOWER ENERGY
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John Cook, from IGPP 2007 data; ~93% to oceans continues (NOAA/NODC, 2012)
Melting iceabsorbs ~2%
Only ~2% staysin atmosphere
~2% warmsthe land
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Oceans, 0-700 m depth
Oceans, 700-2000 m depth
Atmosphere + land + ice melting
Change in heat content, 1958-2011
20
15
10
5
0
-5
(NOAA 2012 data, Nuccitelli et al. 2012 plot)
5-year moving averages
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
10
22
Joule
s
(Increasing heat, notshown, goes deeperthan 2000 m)
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http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47
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For more see: http://www.skepticalscience.com/melting-ice-global-warming.htm
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2015/
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14: HOW FAST IS SEA LEVELRISING?
Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602)Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/).
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Frequency of occurrence (vertical axis) of local June-July-August temperature anomalies(relative to 1951-1980 mean) for Northern Hemisphere land in units of local standarddeviation (horizontal axis). Temperature anomalies in the period 1951-1980 match closely thenormal distribution ("bell curve", shown in green), which is used to define cold (blue), typical(white) and hot (red) seasons, each with probability 33.3%. The distribution of anomalies hasshifted to the right as a consequence of the global warming of the past three decades such thatcool summers now cover only half of one side of a six-sided die, white covers one side, redcovers four sides, and an extremely hot (red-brown) anomaly covers half of one side.Source: Hansen, J., Sato, M., and Ruedy, R., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 2012.
Loaded Climate Dice: global warming is increasing extreme weather events.
Extreme summer heat anomalies now cover about 10% of land area, up from 0.2%.
This is based on observations, not models.
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Tricky question related to gas laws
• TOA – TOP OF ATMOSPHERE
• Which is denser: 2 = ROOMS, BOTH SAMETEMP.
A. 100% HUMIDITY
B. 20% HUMIDITY
• El Nino/La Nina map and world temperatures
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Explanation
• GAS LAWS– N2 (78%), atomic mass 14 (7p/7n) x 2 = 28
– O2 (21%), atomic mass 16 (8p/8n) x2 = 32
– H2O (varies <1%), H – 1p x 2 = 2 + 16 = 18
• Water vapor mixed in air makes it LESS DENSE
• Why rain associated with LOW pressure
• Joule (ISU), calorie, BTU– Takes 80 cal to melt ice; 1 cal (4.2J)/ oC; 540 c to
steam
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WEB PAGE
http://www.denverclimatestudygroup.com/
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Past Earth History Objectives:
1. Present you with the geologic evidence; Earth’spast
2. Educate / That the science is sound
3. Understand the denial movement and how tocounter it
4. Motivate you
5. Give you hope / look at potential game changers
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- SO –WHAT CONTROLSCLIMATE
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Gerhard et al., 2001
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Rohling, et al., (PALAESENS Project mbrs), 2012
1o Forcings
SolarLuminosity
Atm. Comp.
2o Forcings
Continents(latitudes &elevations)
Oceancirculation
weathering
CO2
3o Forcings
Obliquity
Precession
Eccentricity
CO2 /CH4
FEEDBACKS
4o Forcings
Volcanic eruptions
SunspotsCycles
El Nino/La Nina
Cloud
Solar storms
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1. Earth’s deep past before the Cambrian (600 MaBP): hotand cold
2. Earth’s past: Cambrian onward: mostly hot-houseEarth; 100s parts per million (ppm)
3. Climate trend in the Cenozoic – the last 65 million years;proxy data from 3600ppm to <200 ppm.
4. More recent past: 180-280 part per million; how do weknow – empirical data. Preview of next week’s field trip
5. Today: 400 ppm and growing
Earth’s past climate
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Earth’s deep past and early atmosphere before theCambrian (600 MaBP): hot and cold
• Earth self regulates 2.1 -2.3 Tim Lenton video – 9 minuteoverview and BBC article:http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/ancient_earth/Snowball_Earth
• Nat geographic – not terribly good – but at 2:30describe dropstones - evidence
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mX3pHD7NH58 butat Better description of cause:http://www.sciencechannel.com/tv-shows/how-the-universe-works/videos/snowball-earth/
Earth’s past climate 1 of 2
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Earth’s deep past and early atmosphere before theCambrian (600 MaBP): hot and cold
• 48 minuteshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOLbE8frMrM
• WIKI: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowball_Earth• Article Link: BBC Nature --- video is not currently working
9/20/2015 and 4/5/16 athttp://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/ancient_earth/Snowball_Earthbut here’s a link about the video including a link to thetranscript:http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2000/snowballearth.shtml
• You Tube – leaving for you to watch on your own:https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=snow+ball+earth – various links
Earth’s past climate 2 of 2
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1. Earth’s deep past before the Cambrian (600 MaBP): hotand cold
2. Earth’s past: Cambrian onward: mostly hot-houseEarth; 100s parts per million (ppm)
3. Climate trend in the Cenozoic – the last 65 million years;proxy data from 3600ppm to <200 ppm.
4. More recent past: 180-280 part per million; how do weknow – empirical data. Preview of next week’s field trip
5. Today: 400 ppm and growing
Earth’s past climate
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PALEOZOIC MESOZOIC CENOZ.
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Royer et al., 2003
Geologic cycles:Climate through thePhanerozoic:Carbon is the culprit
Alternating Greenhouse Earth / Ice-house Earth
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Cenozoic Deep Sea Climate Record
Zachos et al. 2008
hyperthermals
Opening of the Drakepassage isolating
Antarctica and furtherdrop in CO2
Changes in W.Pacific/IndianOcean and/or
closing ofIsthmus
of Panama
41k-100k &litude
change:Increase in
Antarctic ice
Azollasequestering
event
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Zachos et al. 2008
hyperthermals
Opening of the Drake passageisolating Antarctica and further
drop in CO2
Changes in W.Pacific/Indian Ocean
and/or closing ofIsthmus
of Panama
41k-100k & amplitudechange:
Increase inAntarctic ice
Azolla sequesteringevent
Cenozoic Deep Sea Climate Record
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Correlation ofCO2 and temperature
over last 65million years
Beerling and Royer, Nature 2011
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Azolla event:~ 49 Ma
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Climate Changes from Ocean Sediment Cores, since 5Ma. Milankovitch Cycles
41K 100 K
3.0Ma4.0Ma 2.0Ma 1.0Ma5.0Ma 0
When CO2 levels get below ~400-600 ppm Orbital parametersbecome more important than CO2
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http://cnx.org/content/m38572/1.5/
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http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/climate-change/
400ppm in2015
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http://serc.carleton.edu/microbelife/research_methods/environ_sampling/stableisotopes.html
NormalOxygen has 6protons and 6neutronsreferred to asO16. The rarerstable isotopeof oxygen has2 extraneutrons andis referred toas O18
How Rain, snow and ice gets progressively lighter in the ratioof O18/O16
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http://atoc.colorado.edu/~dcn/SWING/overview.php
How Rain, snow and ice gets progressively lighter in the ratioof O18/O16
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1. Earth’s deep past before the Cambrian (600 MaBP): hotand cold
2. Earth’s past: Cambrian onward: mostly hot-houseEarth; 100s parts per million (ppm)
3. Climate trend in the Cenozoic – the last 65 million years;proxy data from 3600ppm to <200 ppm.
4. More recent past: 180-280 part per million; how do weknow – empirical data. Preview of next week’s field trip
5. Today: 400 ppm and growing
Earth’s past climate
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Scientific History of Climate change – PROXY DATA
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Photosynthesis/RespirationCO2 + H20 ↔ CH2O + O2
Weathering/PrecipitationCO2 + CaSiO3 ↔ CaCO3 + SiO2
Long-term Carbon Cycle: rocksTwo generalized reactions…
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Berner, 2001
Long-term carbon cycle: rocks
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50 million years ago (50 MYA) Earth was ice-free.
Atmospheric CO2 amount was of the order of 1000 ppm 50 MYA.
Atmospheric CO2 imbalance due to plate tectonics ~ 10-4 ppm per year.
Azolla event:~ 49 Ma
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Azolla event:~ 49 Ma
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Volcanism decreased; someslowing of spreading rates: less
CO2 emitted by volcanoes
Weathering/Precipitationincreased; India colliding into
Asia/Himalayans
So – what changed?
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1. Earth’s deep past before the Cambrian (600 MaBP): hotand cold
2. Earth’s past: Cambrian onward: mostly hot-houseEarth; 100s parts per million (ppm)
3. Climate trend in the Cenozoic – the last 65 million years;proxy data from 3600ppm to <200 ppm.
4. More recent past: 180-280 part per million; how do weknow – empirical data. Preview of next week’s field trip
5. Today: 400 ppm and growing
Earth’s past climate
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Climate Changes from Ocean Sediment Cores, since 5Ma. Milankovitch Cycles
41K 100 K
3.0Ma4.0Ma 2.0Ma 1.0Ma5.0Ma 0
When CO2 levels get below ~400-600 ppm Orbital parametersbecome more important than CO2
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1. Earth’s deep past before the Cambrian (600 MaBP): hotand cold
2. Earth’s past: Cambrian onward: mostly hot-houseEarth; 100s parts per million (ppm)
3. Climate trend in the Cenozoic – the last 65 million years;proxy data from 3600ppm to <200 ppm.
4. More recent past: 180-280 part per million; how do weknow – empirical data. Preview of next week’s field trip
5. Today: 400 ppm and growing
Earth’s past climate
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End of week 2EXTRAS FOLLOW
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Paleocene/Eocene Thermal MaximumPETM
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Azolla event:~ 49 Ma
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Wikipedia
Proxy data: stable isotopes
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PETM - THE LAND RECORD
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Bighorn Basin
PETM intervalin fluvial depositswith excellentalluvial paleosols- seen as colorbands, which aresoil horizons
Found inWillwood Fm
Reds, purplesdue to ironoxides in Bhorizons
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Paleosol Density
Pre-PETM
PETM
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Bighorn Basin Climate
Plant fossils andisotopes show MeanAnnual Temperatureof 20o to 25o C or68 to 77o F
Similar to GulfCoast region today
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PROXY DATA-EXTRAS
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FROM CSI TO GSI:GEOLOGICAL SAMPLE
INVESTIGATION
LET THE EVIDENCE SPEAK
FOR ITSELF
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WE CALL THISEVIDENCE
“PROXY” DATA
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• Strandlines/shorelines
• Moraines
• Till
• Kettle lakes, etc.
SOME OF THE EARLIEST PROXY DATAWAS FROM TERRESTRIAL DEPOSITS
We may know whatcaused these today,but imagine backthen?
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IT’S THE INTERPRETATION THAT’S NOTALWAYS CORRECT
Darwin observed ancient Alpine shorelines:interpreted as ocean shoreline
Agassiz – later correctly interpreted as ice-dammed lake-shore strandlines/shoreline
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• Jean Louis R.Agassiz
• “Father” ofGlaciology
• 1807-1873
• Paleontologist
• Glaciologist
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Photographic proxy data/evidence
Ruddiman, 2008
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EARLYPROXY DATA:TREE RINGS
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Pollen & Lake core data
Ruddiman, 2008
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PROXY DATA:POLLEN DATA
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PROXY DATA:LEAVES
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Tree rings, corals, ice cores
Ruddiman, 2008
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PROXY DATA:ICE CORES
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TERRESTRIAL DATA
North American:WisconsinIllinoianKansanNebraskan
European:WurmRissMindelGunz
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LATER EVIDENCE CAME FROMTHE MARINE RECORD
NOT WITHOUT IT’S PROBLEMS,BUT MORE COMPLETE
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CesareEmilani:
Paleontologist,Chemist
Father ofPaleoceanography
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Other Paleoceanographers
Wally Broecker
Thermal-haline
“conveyor” belt of circulation
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Bill Ruddiman
Nick Shackleton
Other Paleoceanographers
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Other Paleoceanographers
John Imbrie:
CLIMAP
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PROXY DATA:CORE DATA
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PROXY DATA:BENTHICFORAMS
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PROXY DATA:PLANKTONICFORAMS
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Deep Sea Coring
Ruddiman, 2008
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The Azolla event
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Precipitation (sink):CO2 + CaSiO3 → CaCO3 + SiO2
GUESS WHAT:
AS CONTINENTS DRIFT TO HIGH LATITUDES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONSAND BECOME GLACIATED IT LEADS TO:
1. GREATER MECHANICAL WEATHERING OF SILICATES:• increasing sequestration of CO2 in sediments• decreasing the amount in the atmosphere
ADDITIONALLY in the Cenozoic:
2. MID-OCEAN SPREADING RATES SLOW DOWN•Less CO2 into the atmosphere for volcanoes
=CO2 DRAW DOWN THROUGH TIME!
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Cenozoic Deep Sea Climate Record
Zachos et al. 2008
hyperthermals
Opening of the Drakepassage isolating
Antarctica and furtherdrop in CO2
Changes in W.Pacific/IndianOcean and/or
closing ofIsthmus
of Panama
41k-100k &litude
change:Increase in
Antarctic ice
Azollasequestering
event
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Correlation ofCO2 and temperature
over last 65million years
Beerling and Royer, Nature 2011
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ARCTICEVENTS
Brinkhuis et al,, 2006Moran et al., 2006
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The Arctic Sea 50 million years ago
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ACEX Azolla core
• >8 meter ACEX core with 90% Azolla
• Azolla occurs as laminated layers
• indicates Azolla deposited in situ
• bottom-water anoxia at ACEX site
Bujak, pers. Comm.
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the massivedecrease inatmosphericCO2?
Bujak, pers. Comm.
UNPRECEDENTED DROP IN CO2
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poor data
1200 ppm
800 ppm
600 ppm
can this be used to predict the effect offuture increases in CO2 ?
Bujak, pers. Comm.
climate modelsindicate that fullAntarctic glaciationcannot occur unlessCO2 ppm is less than1000 ppm