MEPC 2020 - Issue Statement:

WMD’s: Nuclear and Chemical Weapons in the Middle East

Context & BackgroundBoth nuclear weapons and nuclear energy have emerged as pressing issues in the

Middle East over the past two decades. The threat of nuclear weapons is felt perhaps most keenly by Israel, which fears a single weapon in the hands of an enemy could effectively destroy its state; in addition, the possibility of a regional arms race looms as Shiite and Sunni nations consider the threat posed by the emergence of a nuclear-armed opponent. Even the development of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes – like the cheap supply of electrical energy in a largely underdeveloped region – is seen by some as the first step toward developing a nuclear program that includes weapons. Whatever their intention, these energy programs carry with them all of the attendant risks to public safety and the environment that nations around the world have had to confront in the pursuit of nuclear power.

Over the past twenty years, the focus of the world has largely been on Iran and its undeclared but broadly-understood goal of developing nuclear weapons to match those already possessed by the state of Israel. Iran’s program led to growing tensions in the region and globally, resulting in United States and United Nations sanctions that blocked Iranian oil sales, barred corporations and banks from doing business with Iran, and banned the sale of key technologies that might be used in the pursuit of nuclear weapons. The stand-off between Iran and other nations (U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia, the U.N., and more) moved toward resolution by a July 2015 “nuclear deal” (officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA) signed by Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council (U.S., Russia, China, France, Great Britain) plus Germany (the P5+1). All of the involved nations took steps to meet their obligations under the agreement, which include dismantling gas centrifuges, exporting enriched uranium, and lifting some of the sanctions. However, there continues to be opposition to the agreement – most obviously U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision in May 2018 to withdraw from it and reimpose economic sanctions – making its future far from certain. This past summer, Iran announced that it was resuming the enrichment of weapons-grade uranium in direct violation of the agreement. Stricter sanctions are at least part of the source of the recent wave of popular protest in Iran, ,m culminating with more than 300 killed and thousands imprisoned in November. So, while it appears that real progress has been made toward limiting the spread of nuclear weapons in the Middle East, the issue is certainly not closed.

Nine nations currently possess nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, Great Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel. While all of the above nations have gained membership to the exclusive “nuclear club” as a result of having successfully tested at least one nuclear weapon, only the first five have agreed to the

Revised 12/19/19

provisions of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The treaty, which was first signed in 1968 and later extended indefinitely in 1995, has been ratified by 189 countries (though, again, not India, Pakistan, or Israel) and has three main functions. First, the NPT is designed to prevent the further development of nuclear weapons (non-proliferation). Second, the NPT seeks the disarmament of those states which already possess nuclear arms. And finally, the NPT gives signatories the right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, such as electricity generation through nuclear power plants. The NPT also prohibits states already in possession of nuclear arms from helping other states develop nuclear weapons.

In order to enforce the treaty a new agency was created to act as a global watchdog. The establishment of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was written into the NPT and has the charge of monitoring the actions of states to make sure they are using their nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. The IAEA has broad monitoring capabilities and is kept extremely busy.

Nuclear Energy in the Middle EastMany Middle Eastern countries have expressed interest in building nuclear

reactors for energy needs. After multiple delays, the United Arab Emirates’ reactor at Barakah will come on line in early 2020 and the Saudis have recently announced -- not without some significant international outcry -- plans plans to enrich uranium and develop their own nuclear power program. These reactors can provide abundant, and much needed, energy for the interested parties, and are already in widespread use throughout Europe and the United States. However the process of creating nuclear power can produce materials which can also be used for the development of nuclear weapons. There is currently a debate raging here in the U.S. and around the world about the right of countries to develop nuclear power options. The outcome of this debate will have enormous consequences for the entire Middle East region.

Economic developments, and the search for clean energy alternatives, are behind this new push to explore nuclear power, at least for some of the aspirants. Egypt's oil reserves are dwindling, Jordan has no natural resources to speak of at all, and natural gas from American “fracking” efforts has destabilized the market for oil and led to lower export revenues for oil rich nations in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. Though the day has not arrived, it's conceivable that nuclear power will become a cheaper option than traditional fossil fuels. Even major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia are arguing that they need nuclear power. In effect, they would rather sell their oil on the global market while using alternative energy sources in their own countries.

But nuclear energy is not without costs. The question of how much “greener” nuclear power is than fossil fuels remains open to debate. While nuclear reactors do not emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, they do produce radioactive waste. In addition, some critics point out that the world can ill-afford new nuclear power plants in light of Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011. And of course, whenever

the topic of nuclear power comes up, particularly in the Middle East, concerns about the possible spread of nuclear weapons are not far behind. Many who follow the nuclear weapons question say assurances of only pursuing peaceful objectives, as have been given by all the countries pursuing nuclear power, should not be taken at face value.

Iran, the JCPOA, and a Nuclear Middle East?The real driver behind the push for nuclear energy in the Middle East has been

Iran, which until the Spring of 2015, appeared to be moving ahead with its nuclear program despite economic sanctions and threats of possible military action by the US and Israel. The Gulf Cooperation Council, a group of Saudi Arabia and the five Arab states that border the Persian Gulf, reversed a longstanding opposition to nuclear power in 2006. As the closest US allies in the region and sitting on vast oil wealth, these states said they saw no immediate need for nuclear energy. But analysts suggest these countries see their own declarations of nuclear intent as a way to keep pace with Iran's influence. More importantly, after the election of moderate Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in 2013, the United States and Iran entered into negotiations alongside Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China that eventually resulted in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which would end Iran’s possible pursuit of nuclear weapons (but not its nuclear energy program) in exchange for lifting international economic sanctions. Since July of 2015, Iran has been moving to fulfill its promises under the agreement and preparing to allow inspections of its nuclear facilities. Iranian hardliners have been critical of the agreement, as has the Israeli government, as have Republican (and some Democratic) members of Congress in the United States. In October 2017, President Trump announced that he would not certify Iran’s compliance and warned that the U.S. might terminate the deal, effectively putting the issue of imposing new sanctions before Congress. European allies followed by lobbying Congress to keep the agreement even as the IAEA confirmed Iran was meeting its commitments. Despite the U.S. withdrawal in May 2018, Iran has vowed to resist new sanctions and the U.S. strategy of “maximum pressure.” In June, Iran shot down a U.S. drone, asserting it had violated its airspace; President Trump called off a retaliatory strike 10 minutes before its execution, explaining on Twitter that he was concerned about the potential for civilian deaths. In September, evidence suggests Iran was behind an attack on Saudi oil installations. The U.S. has responded to the provocations with commitments to deploy more troops to the region, notwithstanding the withdrawal of forces in Syria.

Many analysts maintain the JCPOA was a success in helping to de-escalate a conflict that threatened to pitch the Middle East, and maybe the world, into another war. The years leading up to the Iran nuclear deal were marked by rising tensions and open threats, especially after November 2011 when international inspectors reported that Iran was still taking steps toward developing a nuclear weapon; this prompted tougher sanctions by the United States and Europe against Iran’s oil exports, threats by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz (a very important trade route in the Persian Gulf) and threats from Israel signaling increasing readiness to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities (as

they did in 1981 to Iraq). In late August 2012, international nuclear inspectors reported that Iran had already installed three-quarters of the nuclear centrifuges it would need to complete a deep-underground site for the production of nuclear fuel.

The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency detailed how Iran used the summer of 2012 to double the number of centrifuges installed deep under a mountain near the holy city of Qum, while cleansing another site where the agency has said it suspects that the country has conducted explosive experiments that could be “relevant” to the production of a nuclear weapon. The report was followed by new efforts by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to step up pressure on the Obama administration to establish “red lines” of intolerance for Iran’s nuclear activities. In September 2012, during a speech at the United Nations, Mr. Netanyahu warned that Iran’s capability to enrich uranium must be stopped before the spring or early summer of 2013. The speech suggested that Israel would not take military action on its own before then.

In November 2013, Iran agreed to halt its nuclear program temporarily after the intense sanctions were put upon Iran by the U.S., the UN along with several other countries.

For years, American and international critics of Iran have argued that the regime pursues a radical Islamist agenda, violating human rights at home and supporting terrorist groups around the region, including Hezbollah, making the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran even more complicated and potentially threatening. Iran insisted that it was not in violation of IAEA directives, and was and is acting in accordance with international law. In either case, experts say the nuclear ambitions of majority Sunni Muslim states such as Libya, Jordan, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia are a reaction to Shiite Iran's high-profile nuclear bid, seen as linked with Tehran's campaign for greater influence and prestige throughout the Middle East. Though the US has been firm in its opposition to Iran's nuclear bid, leaving “all options on the table,” including a preemptive military strike, it has generally been tolerant of the nuclear ambitions of its friends in the region. The argument: it is better for the US to cooperate with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and other countries since nuclear power in these countries may be "inevitable" and it would be better for the United States to be in a position to influence their choices and monitor the process.

Finally, some Middle Eastern leaders also resent and fear (see: Saudi Arabia, Iran and Syria) the nuclear capability of Israel, (which may have as many as 200 nuclear warheads, but has refused to confirm or deny its status as a nuclear power). These countries feel great pressure to “catch up” to Israel following the logic that nuclear-armed states are less likely to be attacked by others. This policy is called deterrence through arms acquisition. However, there is an enormous danger in the proliferation of nuclear weapons in an already war-torn and highly volatile Middle Eastern region. Any country to acquire nuclear weapons would likely kick off an arms race, as

happened with the United States and the USSR during the Cold War and more recently between India and Pakistan.

Meanwhile, countries like Iran and Syria argue that the U.S. is in no position to lecture other countries about possible nuclear ambitions when it depends heavily on nuclear energy and has the world’s largest nuclear weapons stockpile, and has been unwilling to significantly reduce the number of weapons in its arsenal. There is also a feeling in Iran and in Arab nations that the aggressive U.S. policy towards Iran is being directed or at least influenced by Israeli demands and desires, leading to great consternation in “The Arab Street” and the Muslim World at large. This is a charge that the Trump administration, many pro-Israeli groups, and a great number of Mid-East scholars, among others, reject. And the involvement of Russia, China and European countries in recent nuclear negotiations speaks to a truly global concern about nuclear power in the Middle East.

Observers believe that the key nuclear issues in the coming years (aside from the ongoing Plan of Action in Iran) will be whether Middle Eastern countries contract experts from foreign companies to control and operate their potential nuclear power plants (minimizing the amount of skill and technology transferred to domestic engineers) or if they will pursue nuclear partnerships that broaden their knowledge and skills bases. As an example, Israel’s 2007 strike on Syria was most likely directed at a nuclear facility where North Koreans may have been passing on nuclear-know-how to the Syrians. Exact details about the strike are difficult to come by.

Chemical Weapons and Cluster BombsIn addition to the issue of nuclear weapons and nuclear energy, the current war

in Syria has reignited the issue of chemical weapons in the Middle East. The Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention, which went into effect on April 10, 1972, commits the signing states to prohibit the development, production, and stockpiling of biological or chemical weapons. However, as of now, no formal organization exists to monitor compliance, which limits the effectiveness of the treaty. According to international investigators, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has launched chemical weapon attacks against rebel held villages in his own country. When the United States prepared to launch military strikes against Assad in response, President Vladimir Putin helped to broker a deal that would remove all chemical weapons from Syria. More recently, in April 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump authorized airstrikes against Syrian airfields in response to another chemical attack. Whether Assad remains in possession of any of these weapons is an open question to only a few. He has denied using them at all, but evidence clearly suggests otherwise. Some observers suggest that Assad’s use of chemical weapons has been the primary reason for the survival of the regime and its nearly complete defeat of rebel forces. In late 2018, the U.S. accused Syria and Russia of coordinating false statements that implicate rebel groups in the use of chemical weapons, despite evidence again suggesting Syrian government forces were responsible..

Cluster bombs are incendiary munitions, including white phosphorus, that have also been used in recent conflicts in the Middle East. Whether air-dropped or ground-launched, these weapons explode and release “bomblets” that disperse, thus causing a conflagration and destruction (and often indiscriminate death) over a wide area. In 2008, the Convention on Cluster Munitions was adopted by 108 countries, effectively banning the use, stockpile, or transfer of such weapons. Among the countries that didn’t sign were the U.S., Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Cluster bombs were used by Israel in the 2006 war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and by the U.S. in Iraq. Even more recently in Yemen, the continued deployment of cluster bombs (many supplied by the U.S.) by the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthi rebels has caused widespread suffering and stirred international outrage.

(Some of the content for this issue statement was taken directly from an article in the November 1st, 2007 edition of the Christian Science Monitor entitled “Middle East Racing Towards Nuclear Power.”)

Negotiating Questions

1. Though Iran has agreed to limits on its nuclear program under the JCPOA, and has always denied that it was pursuing nuclear weapons, Iran also asserts that it has the right to do so – just like the US and Israel. To what extent should a sovereign country like Iran be able to determine its own nuclear future? To what extent should Western countries and international organizations like the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) determine Iran's (or any Middle Eastern country’s) nuclear future?

2. Israel already has a stockpile of nuclear weapons, though it will not say so in public. There have been recent proposals for a Nuclear-Free Middle East pact. Would you support a policy that would take all nuclear weapons out of the Middle East?

3. There are nearly a dozen Middle Eastern and North African nations that are either building or planning to build nuclear reactors as a source of electricity. What additional steps can these nations, and all Middle Eastern nations, take to avoid the distrust and conflict that came with past nuclear programs in Iran, Iraq, Israel, and Syria?

4. Saudi Arabia, Syria, and ISIS have all used forbidden chemical weapons recently. Cluster bombs cause unnecessary “collateral damage” (civilian or “friendly-fire” deaths). How can the international community guarantee that chemical weapons and cluster bombs are not produced or utilized in future conflicts?

Recent News & Resources:

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Russia exits nuclear conversion project, but stands by Iranhttps://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/12/russia-iran-jcpoa-fordow-sanctions.html

America’s Dark History of Killing Its Own Troops With Cluster Munitionshttps://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/04/magazine/cluster-munitions-history.html

A father's grief and the Made in USA bomb dropped in Yemenhttps://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/oct/03/a-fathers-grief-and-the-made-in-usa-bomb-dropped-in-yemen

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MP sees no way for talks unless U.S. returns to JCPOAhttps://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443130/MP-sees-no-way-for-talks-unless-U-S-returns-to-JCPOA

Iran Newly Breaches Nuclear Dealhttps://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-12/news/iran-newly-breaches-nuclear-deal

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Tehran Still Faithful to JCPOA Obligationshttps://financialtribune.com/articles/national/100866/tehran-still-faithful-to-jcpoa-obligations

US unveils new sanctions on Iranhttps://www.cnn.com/2019/12/11/politics/pompeo-iran-sanctions/index.html

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IRAN ASKS U.N. TO CONDEMN ISRAELI NUCLEAR PROGRAM FOLLOWING AIRSTRIKE

https://www.jpost.com//Middle-East/Iran-asks-UN-to-condemn-Israeli-nuclear-power-following-airstrike-567570

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US Accuses Russia, Syria of Fabricating Story of Chemical Weapons Usehttps://www.voanews.com/a/us-accuses-russia-syria-of-fabricating-story-of-chemical-weapons-use/4691673.html

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https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/06/18/donald-trumps-new-world-order

Other Resources:

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Nuclear Saudi Arabia Risks Inflaming Middle East Tensionshttp://www.newsweek.com/saudi-arabia-wants-nuclear-energy-there-risk-696718

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https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/congress-trump-iran-deal_us_5a0c8015e4b0bc648a0f7973

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International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - Iranhttp://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/iaeairan/index.shtml

NYT’s Simple Guide to the Iran nuclear agreementhttp://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/03/31/world/middleeast/simple-guide-nuclear-talks-iran-us.html

USA Today: What each side won and lost in the agreement:http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/07/14/iran-deal-what-each-won-and-lost/30062147/

NYT Timeline on Iran’s Nuclear Programhttp://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/11/20/world/middleeast/Iran-nuclear-timeline.html#/#time243_10809

WSJ on Implementing the Deal-http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/12/14/the-first-big-implementation-test-of-the-iran-nuclear-deal/

More on implementation-http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-idUSKBN0TZ2LW20151216

Reaction to the deal in Iran (from The Hill)http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/261347-after-the-iran-nuclear-deal-a-backlash-inside-iran

Progress Report from the UN on the nuclear deal (Nov. 2015)http://www.voanews.com/content/un-agency-to-release-iran-nuclear-deal-progress-report/3063268.html

Washington Post - on the future of the agreement-https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/12/05/the-iran-nuclear-deal-isnt-over-until-its-over-keep-an-eye-on-its-future/

International Atomic Energy Agency - Middle East (Please see the “Forum Resources” box on this page as well) http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/2011/nwfz-forum-closes.html

http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/2013/sesame2.html

Treaties and Key Events - Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Chronology of Key Events http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Factsheets/English/npt_chrono.html

International Crisis Group: ”Iran After the Nuclear Deal”https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/iran-after-nuclear-deal

Council on Foreign Relations

http://www.cfr.org/interactives/CG_Iran/index.html

http://www.cfr.org/weapons-of-mass-destruction/p51-talks-not-just-iran/p33911

http://www.cfr.org/issue/arms-control-disarmament-and-nonproliferation/ri15

http://www.cfr.org/issue/weapons-of-mass-destruction/ri37

Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/05/us-nuclear-iran-israel-arabs-idUSBRE9A40LX20131105

Nuclear Threat Initiative http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/

Arms Control Treaties

Arms Control Association The NPT at a Glance http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nptfact.asp

The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty Arms Control Association ABM: Treaty Text http://www.armscontrol.org/documents/abmtreaty.asp

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty U.S. State Department The Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban: Treaty Text http://www.state.gov/www/global/arms/treaties/ctb.html

Arms Control Association - The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) – At a Glancehttps://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/cwcglance

Convention on Cluster Munitionshttps://www.clusterconvention.org/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_Cluster_Munitions