Wednesday, April 13, 2016 Palace Hotel, New...

INVESTOR AND BUSINESS CONFERENCE 2016Wednesday, April 13, 2016 Palace Hotel, New York

Europe 2018The Framework for the Future – and How to Benefit

21st Austria

The Hosts21st Austria

Leading Austrian companies together with the Austrian Central Bank and the Vienna Stock Exchange took the initiative to start a dialogue on economic growth in Eu-rope as well as current challenges, with a special focus on Austria and the CEE region. It is a unique effort to explain the current basis of the country’s global com-petitive position and to share learnings and ideas for the future. The members of 21st Austria comprise more than 30% of the market capitalization at the Vienna Stock Exchange and have a leading market position in numerous CESEE countries in their respective sectors.

ADVANTAGE AUSTRIA

The Austrian Trade Commission in New York – attached to Austria’s diplomatic and consular missions in the US – is part of a worldwide network of more than 110 trade promotion and service centers operated by the Austrian Commercial Service. It promotes and protects Austria’s commercial interests in the US and delivers customized business support and consultancy services to Austrian companies and their US subsidiaries. Furthermore the commission assists US companies with trade related information and introductions to suppliers and partners in Austria. The services of ADVANTAGE AUSTRIA are provided free of charge.

Conference agendaTuesday, April 12

All day Arrival of participants

06:30 pm Reception hosted by 21st Austria & ADVANTAGE AUSTRIA at the Austrian Trade Commissioner’s residence In the presence of:Michael Friedl, Austrian Trade Commissioner for the USKarlheinz Kopf, Second President of the National Council of Austria Claus J. Raidl, President of the Austrian Central Bank and Spokesperson for 21st AustriaJürgen Roth, Vice President of Austrian Federal Economic Chamber H.E. Wolfgang Waldner, Austrian Ambassador to the US

Wednesday, April 13

12:00 pm Start 4th Investor & Business Conference | Registration and Reception

12:35 pm Luncheon

Conference Opening:Claus J. Raidl, President of the Austrian Central Bank and Spokesperson for 21st AustriaMichael Friedl, Austrian Trade Commissioner for the USH.E. Wolfgang Waldner, Austrian Ambassador to the US Keynote:Ewald Nowotny, Governor of the Austrian Central Bank and Member of the ECB Governing CouncilReply byAmbroise Fayolle, Vice-President European Investment BankChaired byJana Randow, Federal Reserve Reporter, Bloomberg

Conference agenda

02:00 - 02:40 pm Roundtable discussions: Track I + II

Economic Outlook on Central and Eastern Europe with Michael Landesmann, Director of Research, Vienna Institute for International Economics (wiiw) Chaired by Sherle Schwenninger, President, World Economic Roundtable

Europe & Innovation: The Model of ‘Hidden Champions’ for all of Europe? A discussion with Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, Head of Economics Team at the European Policy Strategy Center (EPSC) and Walter Stephan, CEO FACC of Europe‘s competitivenessChaired by Polya Lesova, Deputy Editor, The Wall Street Journal

02:40 – 03:05 pm Roundtable Input: Karl Aiginger, Director, Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) and coordinator of ‘Welfare, Wealth and Work for Europe’Chaired by Patrick Sagmeister, Head of Operations, Advantage Austria, Austrian Federal Economic Chamber

Conference agenda

03:05 – 03:45 pm Roundtable discussions: Track III + IVEuropean Pressure Points: Immigration, Energy and Trade withJürgen Roth, Vice President, Austrian Federal Economic Chamber and Demetrios G. Papademetriou, President of the Migration Policy Institute Chaired by Stephen Ceurvorst, Managing Partner, Lord Capital LLC

Investing in Europe – a portfolio manager‘s perspective with Cedric Scholtes, Head of Global Rates and Head of US TIPS Portfolios, Fischer Francis Trees & Watts andHerbert Stepic, Senior Advisor to the Board, Raiffeisen Bank InternationalChaired by Johanna Lasker, Head of Official Institutions, Fischer Francis Trees & Watts

03:45 – 04:00 pm Break

04:00 – 04:50 pm Keynote: H.E. Hans Jörg Schelling, Federal Minister of Finance of the Republic of Austria and Member of the EurogroupReply by Dietmar Hornung, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Sovereign Risk GroupModerated by Michael Friedl, Austrian Trade Commissioner for the US

04:50 – 05:00 pm Wrap-up Statement:Claus J. Raidl, President of the Austrian Central Bank and Spokesperson for 21st Austria

The Hosts Claus J. RaidlPresident of the Austrian Central Bank and Spokesperson for 21st Austria

Claus Raidl has been president of the Austrian Central Bank (Oesterreichische National-bank) since 2008. He holds a doctoral degree in economics from the Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration.

Claus Raidl is regularly published in various economic journals and publications where he writes about financial issues and current economic affairs. He also holds several supervisory board positions including Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Institute of Science and Technology (I.S.T.) Austria, Member of the Board of Trustees of the Technisches Museum Wien,

Member of the University Council of the University College of Teacher Education in Lower Austria and Vice-President, European Forum Alpbach.

As a spokesperson of 21st Austria, Claus J. Raidl wants to promote a differentiated view of the dynamic economic area of Austria with its future-ready companies and optimal CEE connections.

The Austrian Central Bank (Oesterreichische Nationalbank) is the central bank of the Republic of Austria and, as such, an integral part of both the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) and the Eurosystem. In the public interest, the Austrian Central Bank contributes to monetary and economic policy decision making in Austria and the euro area.

Austria owes its organic growth and solid development to a large extent to the flexibility of Austrian companies when it comes to coping with new circumstances and challenges. Austrian companies show an admirably high degree of innovativeness and adaptability to ensure their outstanding performance and leading market position globally or in specific regions. These hidden champions – over 90 percent of them are SMEs – form the backbone of the Austrian economy.

The Hosts Michael FriedlAustrian Trade Commissioner for the US Michael Friedl holds an MBA from the Vienna University of Economics and a master’s degree in international public policy from Johns Hopkins, SAIS in Washington, D.C. He was Deputy Trade Commissioner in Johannesburg and Abu Dhabi. Later, he headed the offices in Washington, D.C., and Tehran before being in charge of HR and personnel development at the head office in Vienna. Starting in September 2014 he became the new Austrian Trade Commissioner for the US based in New York. In this function he is heading the office of ADVANTAGE AUSTRIA for the US.

ADVANTAGE AUSTRIA is Austria’s official trade promotion authority. Outside of Austria it operates more than 110 offices in

over 70 countries. ADVANTAGE AUSTRIA provides a broad range of intelligence and business development services for Austrian companies and their international business partners. It works to generate more international business opportunities by promoting the products and services of Austrian businesses around the world by helping companies and organizations outside Austria to build strong relationships with Austrian companies and by promoting Austria as a place to invest in. The offices of ADVANTAGE AUSTRIA in the US (New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., and Atlanta) support Austrian companies in doing business in the US. For US partners ADVANTAGE AUSTRIA is the local link to Austrian companies, products, and services and Austria as an investment location in the heart of Europe. As an official trade representative, ADVANTAGE AUSTRIA is a reliable information source and helps to reduce time, cost, and risk of doing business with Austrian companies.

Beyond “The Sound of Music” Austria offers a very sound economy with a lot of entrepreneurialopportunities - more than 200 Austrian companies are at the absolute pinnacle of the global market. Yet many international investors and analysts, as well as economists and business commentators, are quite simply unaware of the extraordinary performance of these Austrian “hidden champions.” They represent a strong force in Austria and have a massive share in the overall success of Austria’s economy.

Featured GuestsADVANTAGE AUSTRIA ADVANTAGE AUSTRIA is Austria’s official trade promotion authority. Outside of Austria it operates with more than 110 offices in over 70 countries as ADVANTAGE AUSTRIA. It provides a broad range of intelligence and business development services for Austrian companies and their international business partners. ADVANTAGE AUSTRIA works to generate more international business opportunties by promoting the products and services of Austrian businesses around the world, by helping companies and organizations outside Austria to build strong relationships with Austrian companies and by promoting Austria as a place to invest in.

Patrick SagmeisterHead of Operations, ADVANTAGE AUSTRIA, Austrian Federal Economic Chamber

Patrick Sagmeister gained work experience in the private sector, inter alia as financial analyst of a globally operating European oil and gas company. In the context of his activities for ADVANTAGE AUSTRIA (Foreign Trade Department of the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber) he worked in Singapore, Sweden and Germany as Deputy Trade Commissioner, as Head of Strategic Controlling in Vienna and as Trade Commissioner in Slovakia. In addition to his function as a member of the executive board, he is Head of Operations and is responsible for the strategic management of Austria’s Trade Commissions worldwide and the regional directorates in the Viennese headquarters. He is further in charge of sector programs, fairs, Austrian world expo participations and other events abroad. Patrick Sagmeister has a master’s degree in Business Administration from the Vienna University of Economics and Business.

Featured GuestsAustrian AmbassadorWolfgang WaldnerAustrian Ambassador to the US Ambassador Wolfgang Waldner was born and raised in Villach, Austria. He started his career in the Federal Ministry for European & International Affairs in 1981. Previous to his appointment as Austrian Ambassador to the US, he served as State Secretary (Deputy Minister) for European & International Affairs from 2011-2012, in the regional government of Carinthia and as Director of the MuseumsQuartier in Vienna from 1999- 2011. He also served two postings in the US as Director of the Austrian Cultural Fora in Washington, D.C. and New York. Most recently, Ambassador Waldner served as Director General for Cultural Policy at the Foreign Ministry in Vienna.

Featured GuestsAustrian Economic ChamberThe Austrian Economic Chamber (WKÖ) represent more than 450,000 member companies. As the voice of Austrian business, they are committed to forward-looking policies which benefit the economy, e.g. tax relief, cutting red tape, subsidies. The Economic Chamber are modern service providers and offer fast expert advice on topics from labour laws to customs information. Through their educational facilities – Institute for Economic Promotion of the Austrian Economic Chamber (WIFI), universities of applied sciences – the Austrian Economic Chamber contribute to improving the competitive ability of domestic companies.

Jürgen RothVice-President

Jürgen Roth is Vice-President of the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber as well as CEO and owner of Tank Roth GmbH. From 2011 to 2015 he was a member of the Economic Parliament of the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber. Previously, he was President of the Austrian Trade Association for fuel and petroleum distributors. Jürgen Roth earned a master’s degree in International Business Administration at the Alpen-Adria-University of Klagenfurt.

Featured GuestsAustrian Institute of Economic ResearchThe Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) is Austria’s leading institute for applied empirical economic research. Founded in 1927, WIFO analyses and forecasts economic developments in Austria and abroad. WIFO is a non-profit organisation that conducts its scientific work independently of politics and business. The findings of its research activities are designed for use as underpinnings for economic policy and entrepreneurial deci-sion-making and to elevate the economic policy discourse to an objective level.

To put such a mission into practice, the institute requires a strong basis in research theories and the ability to apply advanced empirical methods. Solid experience in handling data and a detailed institutional knowledge ensure a high quality of the research. Linkages with international scientific networks broaden the institute’s performance spectrum and contribute to its quality assurance procedures. They also provide the basis for the institute’s increasing role in applied economic research and policy consulting at the European level.

Karl AigingerDirector of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research

Karl Aiginger has been the director of WIFO since 2005. He earned his habilitation in 1984 with his book “Production Theory and Uncertainty”, published by Blackwell. His research foci are industrial economics, competitiveness and strategies of firms, regions and countries. For many years he was responsible for the background reports for the European Commission on the competitiveness of European industry. Karl Aiginger was also a visiting professor in the US (Stanford University, MIT, and UCLA) as well as guest in 2002 as Professor at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford. He also teaches at the Vienna University of Economic and Business Administration and is an honorary professor at the University of Linz. He is, together with Marcel Canoy, editor in chief of the Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade (JICT). He has been the coordinator of the research project “WWWforEurope” since April 2012 which WIFO is carrying out together with 33 partners within the 7th Framework Programme of the EU. The final report is published under the title “New Dynamics for Europe: Reaping the Benefits of Socio-ecological Transition”.

Featured GuestsEuropean Central BankThe European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank for Europe’s single currency, the euro. The ECB’s main task is to maintain the euro’s purchasing power and price stability in the euro area. The euro area comprises the 19 European Union countries that have introduced the euro since 1999.

The Austrian Central Bank (Oesterreichische Nationalbank) is the central bank of the Republic of Austria and, as such, an integral part of both the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) and the Eurosystem. In the public interest, the Austrian Central Bank contributes to monetary and economic policy decision making in Austria and the euro area.

Ewald NowotnyGovernor of the Austrian Central Bank and member of the ECB Governing Council

Before taking on his current position in September 2008, Ewald Nowotny held a number of high-level positions in financial institutions. He was CEO of the Austrian BAWAG P.S.K. banking group from 2006 to 2007, served as Vice President and Member of the Executive Board of the European Investment Bank (EIB) in Luxembourg from 1999 to 2003 and, between 1971 and 1979, was first a Member and then President of the Governing Board of Ös-terreichische Postsparkasse (P.S.K.). Moreover, from 1992 to 2008 Ewald Nowotny served as member of the supervisory board of several banks and corporations and was a member of the Austrian Central Bank General Council from 2007 to 2008. He studied law and government sciences at the University of Vienna and economics at the Institute of Advanced Studies in Vienna. In 1967, he received his doctorate in law from the University of Vien-na. Ewald Nowotny was an elected Member of the Austrian Par-liament from 1979 to 1999 and served as chairman of the parlia-mentary Finance Committee from 1985 to 1999.

Featured GuestsEuropean CommissionThe European Commission is the executive of the European Union and promotes its general interest. It is independent of national governments. Its job is to represent and uphold the interests of the EU as a whole. It is headed by 28 Commissioners, one per country. The European Commission is the ‘engine room’ of the EU. It is one of 3 main EU institutions; the other two are the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union. The Commission prepares legislation for adoption by the Council (representing the member countries) and the Parliament (representing the citizens). It administers the budget and the policy programmes (Agriculture, Fisheries, Research etc.) in cooperation with authorities in the member countries.

Lúcio Vinhas de SouzaHead of Economics Team at the European Policy Strategy Center

Appointed in April 2015 as the Head of the Economics Team at the European Policy Strategy Center (EPSC), the internal think tank of the Presidency of the European Commission in Brussels, Lúcio Vinhas de Souza was until March 2015 Managing Director and Sovereign Chief Economist of Moody’s Investor Services in New York. Before that position, he coordinated the analysis and forecasting for the High Income Countries (HIC) and Europe and Central Asia (ECA) regions at the World Bank’s “Development Prospects Group”, where he co-authored the “Global Economic Prospects” publication. Prior to the World Bank, Lúcio Vinhas de Souza was the Head of the Russia and Belarus Desk at the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) at the European Commission in Belgium, and before that he was a Coordinator of Research Area at the Kiel Institute for World Economics in Germany. Going further back, his first work experience as an international economist was at the United Nations’ Secretariat.

Featured GuestsEuropean Investment BankThe European Investment Bank (EIB) is the European Union’s bank. It is the only bank owned by and representing the interests of the European Union Member States. The EIB works closely with other EU institutions to implement EU policy. As the largest multilateral borrower and lender by volume, the EIB provides finance and expertise for sound and sustainable investment projects which contribute to furthering EU policy objectives. More than 90% of the activity is focused on Europe but the EIB also supports the EU’s external and development policies.Headquartered in Luxembourg, the EIB has a network of local and regional offices in Europe and beyond. Founded in Brussels in 1958 the EIB currently employs 2000 members of staff.

Ambroise FayolleVice-President of the European Investment Bank

Ambroise Fayolle serves as Vice-President of the European Investment Bank. He is a member of the steering board of the European Fund for Strategic Investments and among other things responsible for innovation, science and technology, new products and special transactions and financing operations in Austria, France, Germany, the ACP countries, the OCTs (West Africa and the Pacific) and South Africa (jointly with Vice-President van Ballekom). Previously, Ambroise Fayolle has been Director General of Agency France Trésor (AFT). From 2007 to 2013 Mr. Fayolle represented France on the boards of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

Featured GuestsFACCFACC is a leading force in the development and production of components and systems made of composite materials. No other organization active in this particular field of industry has its lightweight composite components installed in so many different aircraft models. Its lightweight solutions help ensure safety, save weight and provide for more comfort and enhanced noise reduction aboard passenger, cargo and business aircraft and helicopters.

With its headquarters founded in Austria, FACC has – for more than two decades – continued to be a successful pioneer of composite technologies. Its enduring development in solutions, services and sustainable growth is what makes this globally active group stand out above others.

Walter A. StephanChief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Executive Board

Walter Stephan is the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of FACC AG. He received his graduation diploma at Senior High School in 1972 and a master’s degree in polymer engineering studies from the Institute of Materials, Science and Testing of Plastics of University of Leoben, Austria in 1977. Walter Stephan has more than 30 years of experience in the aerospace industry and a comprehensive range of management knowledge.

Featured GuestsFederal Ministry of Finance The Ministry of Finance is located in the city centre of Vienna and houses all Directorates General except DG Information and Communication Technology, e-government. The core competence of the Federal Ministry of Finance is its overall responsibility for the Austrian federal budget. At an administrative level this responsibility is assumed by the Directorate General for Budget and Public Finances. Its task is to ensure that public funds for the fulfilment of public functions and the provision of public services are used in an efficient, economic and effective manner by applying the principles of budget management – namely transparency, efficiency and true and fair view.

Hans Jörg SchellingAustrian Federal Minister for Finance

Hans Jörg Schelling was appointed Minister of Finance in 2014. Before his appointment, Mr. Schelling was the Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Austrian Social Security pension fund from 2013 to 2014. Before that he was the chairman of the Supervisory Board of Volksbank AG and the Chairman of the Managing Board of the Main Association of Austrian Social Security Institutions. He worked as an Independent Consultant from 1990 to 2014. Between 1992 and 2014, he was Managing Director and/or Managing Shareholder of several companies in Austria. A former member of the Austrian Parliament, Mr. Schelling was Vice-President of the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber from 2004 to 2014. Hans Jörg Schelling holds both a master’s degree and a Doctorate in Business Administration from Linz University.

Featured GuestsFischer Francis Trees & Watts, Inc.Fischer Francis Trees & Watts, Inc. (FFTW) is a privately owned investment management firm with approximately $18.6 billion in assets under management. The firm provides its services to banking or thrift institutions, investment companies, pension and profit sharing plans, pooled investment vehicles, charitable organizations, corporations, insurance companies, endowments, foundations, superannuation schemes, and official institutions. It manages separate client-focused income portfolios, accounts and mutual funds. The firm invests in the fixed income markets across the globe. It primarily focuses on duration and yield curve opportunities globally, corporate credit, mortgages, asset-backed securities and foreign exchange to make its investments. The firm operates as a subsidiary of Charter Atlantic Corporation. Fischer Francis Trees & Watts, Inc. was founded in 1972 and is based in New York City. Fischer Francis Trees & Watts, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of BNP Paribas Investment Partners USA Holdings Inc.

Cedric ScholtesHead of Global Rates and Head of US TIPS Portfolios

Cedric Scholtes is Head of Global Rates and Head of US TIPS Portfolios at FFTW, a sub-sidiary of BNP Paribas Investment Partners. He is responsible for the overall performance of the Global Rates team, implementing and improving investment processes for this team as well as managing the dedicated interest rate specialists who comprise the team. He also has responsibility for overseeing US inflation-linked portfolios as well as US government portfolios. Cedric joined FFTW in 2006 as a portfolio manager and is based in New York. Cedric Scholtes joined the firm from the Treasury trading desk at Goldman Sachs, where his responsibilities included taking proprietary positions and market-making in index-linked markets, as well as enhancing the desk’s analytical capabilites. He has published articles on nominal and inflation-linked debt markets in Bank of England, BIS and IMF periodicals, as well as RiskBooks. Cedric Scholtes has 16 years of investment experience. He holds an MSc in Finance and Economics from Warwick Business School, an MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics, and an MA/BA in Economics from Cambridge University.

Featured GuestsMigration Policy InstituteThe Migration Policy Institute (MPI) is an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit think tank in Washington, D.C. dedicated to analysis of the movement of people worldwide. MPI provides analysis, development, and evaluation of migration and refugee policies at local, national, and international levels. It aims to meet the demand for pragmatic and thoughtful responses to the challenges and opportunities that large-scale migration, whether voluntary or forced, presents to communities and institutions in an increasingly integrated world. Founded in 2001 by Demetrios G. Papademetriou and Kathleen Newland, MPI grew out of the International Migration Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Demetrios G. PapademetriouPresident of Migration Policy Institute Europe and President Emeritus of MPI

Demetrios G. Papademetriou is Distinguished Senior Fellow and President Emeritus of the Migration Policy Institute, a Washington-based think tank dedicated exclusively to the study of international migra-tion. He is also President of Migration Policy Institute Europe, a nonprofit, independent research institute in Brussels that aims to promote a better understanding of migration trends and effects within Europe, and serves on MPI Europe’s Administrative Council. He is a Member of the MPI Board of Trustees. He is the convener of the Transatlantic Council on Migration, which is composed of senior public figures, business leaders, and public intellectuals from Europe, the United States, and Canada, and convenes the Regional Migration Study Group, an initiative that has proposed and is promoting multi-stakeholder support for new regional and collaborative approaches to migration, competitiveness, and human-capital development for the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Central America. Demetrios Papademetriou holds a PhD in comparative public policy and international relations (1976) from the University of Maryland and has taught at the universities of Maryland, Duke, American, and New School for Social Research.

Featured GuestsMoody’s Investors ServiceMoody’s Investors Service is a leading provider of credit ratings, research, and risk analysis. Moody’s commitment and expertise contributes to transparent and integrated financial markets. The firm’s ratings and analysis track debt covering more than 120 sovereign nations, approximately 11,000 corporate issuers, 21,000 public finance issuers, and 72,000 structured finance obligations. Moody’s Investors Service is a subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO), which reported revenue of $3.5 billion in 2015, employs approximately 10,400 people worldwide and maintains a presence in 36 countries.

Dietmar HornungAssociate Managing Director at Moody’s Investors Service Dietmar Hornung, Associate Managing Director, leads the Sovereign Risk Group’s European team, covering the European countries and the European supranationals. Prior to his appointment as team leader, Dietmar Hornung was Moody’s lead analyst on a number of European sovereign credits, including Germany, France, Italy, Ireland, Russia, EU, EFSF and ESM.Before joining Moody’s in 2007, Mr. Hornung was Head of Emerging Market Research for DekaBank in Frankfurt.Dietmar Hornung holds a Doctorate summa cum laude in Economics from Ottovon-Guericke University in Magdeburg. He received a master’s degree from Christian-Albrechts University in Kiel, after studies in Kiel, at the University of Miami, and at the Eberhard-Karls University in Tübingen. Dietmar Hornung is a Certified EFFAS Financial Analyst (CEFA).

Featured GuestsNew America New America was founded in 1999 to nurture a new generation of public intellectuals – scholars, policy experts, and journalists who could address major social, economic, and political challenges in ways that would engage the public at large – and to provide a set of blueprints for American renewal in an era of globalization and digitization. The initial challenge, which continues today, was to find the minds and foster the debates needed to guide American renewal in an era of profound, exhilarating, but often threatening change. Under the leadership of founding president Ted Halstead and his successor Steve Coll, New America became a vibrant intellectual community and public policy institute.

Sherle R. SchwenningerDirector, Economic Growth Program and American Strategy Program, New America Foundation and President of the World Economic Roundtable

Sherle R. Schwenninger directs New America’s Economic Growth and American Strategy Programs. He is also founding director of the World Economic Roundtable, a program that brings together thought leaders from business, finance, and public policy in regular meetings to remap the global economy after the Great Recession. One of the founders of New America, he served as treasurer from 1999 to 2007 and also as director of the Bernard L. Schwartz Fellows Program. Mr. Schwenninger was founding editor of World Policy Journal from 1983 to 1992, and served as director of the World Policy Institute at The New School from 1992 to 1996. More recently, Mr. Schwenninger served as senior program coordinator for the Project on Development, Trade, and International Finance at the Council on Foreign Relations, and has been a founding member of and adviser to the EU Rim Policy and Investment Council. Mr. Schwenninger writes and speaks frequently on questions involving the US and world economies and on issues related to American foreign policy and international economic strategy.

Featured GuestsRaiffeisen Bank International AGRaiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI) regards Austria, where it is a leading corporate and investment bank, as well as Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), where its subsidiaries act in 15 markets as universal banks, as its home market. RBI is the only Austrian bank with a presence in both the world’s financial centers and via branches and representative offices in Asia. In total, more than 56,000 employees service 14.6 million customers through over 2,900 business outlets, the great majority of which are located in CEE. RBI is a fully-consolidated subsidiary of Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG (RZB). RZB owns around 60.7 per-cent of the shares, the remainder is in free float. RBI’s shares are listed on the Vienna Stock Exchange.

Herbert StepicFormer Chief Executive Officer and Senior Advisor to the Board

Herbert Stepic is Senior Advisor to the Managing Board of RBI, one of the leading banking groups in CEE. He looks back at more than 30 years of experience in international banking business and trade finance and is a renowned expert for CEE. He has been the master-mind and motor behind the rapid expansion of Raiffeisen’s international network. Raiffeisen Bank was founded in 1986 and set the cornerstone of its international network in Hungary, three years before the fall of the Iron Curtain. Mr. Stepic was awarded European Banker of the Year 2006 by The Group 20 + 1 in Germany.

Featured GuestsVienna Institute for International Economic StudiesThe Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) is one of the principal centers for research on Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the last 40 years, the institute has broadened its expertise, increasing its regional coverage to European integration and the countries of wider Europe and selected issues of the global economy, as well as expanding the research areas its experts are working on. At present, the thematic work of wiiw is focused on macroeconomic developments and structural change, international economics, labor markets and social issues, as well as on selected issues related to sectoral and regional economic developments. wiiw is an independent, non-profit institution. The wiiw staff serves the public and clients alike, delivering economic analyses and research, forecasts, statistical data and policy advice.

Michael LandesmannDirector of Research at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies

Michael Landesmann is Scientific Director at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies and Professor of Economics at the Johannes Kepler University where he is also department head of economic theory and quantitative economic research. His research focuses on East-West economic integration, structural change, economic growth, general topics in international economic relations, globalisation and labour markets and migration. He was a member of the Group of Economic Policy Advisors under the chairmanship of former EU Commission President Romano Prodi and participated in and coordinated a wide range of EU projects on different aspects of European integration. He has a D.Phil. from Oxford University, was a lecturer, fellow and Senior Research Officer at Cambridge University and held visiting professorships at Harvard University (where he was J. Schumpeter and Pierre Keller Visiting professor) and a wide range of other universities (Brandeis, Basel, Osaka, Padova, Jerusalem, Central European University, CERGE-EI, Mumbai, etc.).

Featured GuestsWall Street Journal The Wall Street Journal is a business-focused, English-language international daily newspaper based in New York City and delivers news, analysis and insights for its readers. The Journal is published six days a week by Dow Jones & Company, a division of News Corp, along with its Asian and European editions. The Wall Street Journal is the largest newspaper in the United States by circulation. It has won 39 Pulitzer Prizes through 2015 and derives its name from Wall Street in the heart of the Financial District of Lower Manhattan. The Wall Street Journal provides news coverage from more than 1,800 journalists in 45 countries and has a community of more than 2.2 million subscribers in the U.S. and 31 million unique users per month worldwide as part of the Wall Street Journal Digital Network. Since 1889, readers have trusted the Journal for accurate, objective information to fuel their decisions as well as enlighten, educate and inspire them.

Polya LesovaDeputy Editor for Finance and Markets on Real-Time News Desk at The Wall Street Journal

Polya Lesova is deputy editor for finance and markets coverage on The Wall Street Journal’s real-time desk in New York. In that role, she helps ensure that all digital platforms are served with fast, sharp coverage of financial institutions and markets. Previously, Polya Lesova, in addition to overseeing real-time markets coverage, served as the senior WSJ newsroom editor on Saturday nights. Prior to that, she was deputy markets editor at MarketWatch in New York. Her other assignments at MarketWatch included stints as a markets reporter in New York and Frankfurt, and as the London bureau chief. Polya Lesova, who was born and raised in Bulgaria, has an undergraduate degree in political science and journalism from the American University in Bulgaria and a graduate degree in journalism from New York University.

Featured GuestsBloomberg LPBloomberg, the global business and financial information and news leader, gives influential decision makers a critical edge by connecting them to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas. The company’s strength – delivering data, news and analytics through innovative technology, quickly and accurately – is at the core of the Bloomberg Professional service, which provides real time financial information to more than 320,000 subscribers globally. Through Bloomberg Law, Bloomberg Government, Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Bloomberg BNA, the company provides data, news and analytics to decision makers in industries beyond finance. And Bloomberg News, delivered through the Bloomberg Professional service, television, radio, mobile, the Internet and two magazines, Bloomberg Businessweek and Bloomberg Markets, covers the world with more than 2,430 news and multimedia professionals at 146 bureaus in 73 countries. Headquartered in New York, Bloomberg employs more than 15,500 people in 192 locations around the world.

Jana RandowFederal Reserve Reporter at Bloomberg LP

Jana Randow attended Columbia College in Chicago and holds a master’s degree in journalism and American studies from the University of Leipzig. She worked for US public television in Ohio and spent some time at CNN before moving back to Europe. She has written about European economics and central banking since 2007 - first for Market News and since 2008 for Bloomberg. Jana Randow is currently working in Bloomberg’s Washington office covering the Federal Reserve.

Featured GuestsFischer Francis Trees & Watts, Inc.Fischer Francis Trees & Watts, Inc. (FFTW) is a privately owned investment management firm with approximately $18.6 billion in assets under management. The firm provides its services to banking or thrift institutions, investment companies, pension and profit sharing plans, pooled investment vehicles, charitable organizations, corporations, insurance companies, endowments, foundations, superannuation schemes, and official institutions. It manages separate client-focused income portfolios, accounts and mutual funds. The firm invests in the fixed income markets across the globe. It primarily focuses on duration and yield curve opportunities globally, corporate credit, mortgages, asset-backed securities and foreign exchange to make its investments. The firm operates as a subsidiary of Charter Atlantic Corporation. Fischer Francis Trees & Watts, Inc. was founded in 1972 and is based in New York City. Fischer Francis Trees & Watts, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of BNP Paribas Investment Partners USA Holdings Inc.

Johanna LaskerHead of Central Banks & Official Institutions

Johanna Lasker is the Head of Central Banks & Official Institutions for FFTW, a subsidiary of BNP Paribas Investment Partners. She rejoined the team in 2004 after having previously worked at the firm from 1997 to 2000. She is based in New York. Johanna Lasker returned to FFTW after spending two years in the Corporate Finance division at UBS where she was an Associate Director in the Consumer Products Group in New York. She later transferred to the Global Industrial Group in Japan where she lived for a year. Johanna Lasker is also the Head of Official Institutions for BNP Paribas Investment Partners. She is responsible for managing and growing the companys official institutions business globally, which includes developing business, servicing clients and ensuring the company is meeting the needs of its official institutions clients. Johanna Lasker has 17 years of investment experience. She earned an MBA in Finance and International Business from New York University, and a BA in East Asian Studies from Stanford University.

Featured GuestsLord Capital, LLCLord Capital, LLC partners with global corporations, banks, and investors to finance trade through securitization and supply chain finance. LordCap is globally active in trade receivables, consumer receivables, commodity trade finance, credit cards, ABCP conduits, distressed assets and CLO Warehouses. The company has provided solutions in the United Kingdom, Germany, Austria, France, Switzerland, Japan, and the United States. For corporate clients, LordCap and its affiliates have accepted consolidation responsibility for approximately $80 billion of assets so that they can attract efficient and cost effective funding without distorting their balance sheets. For banks, LordCap acts as a cooperative partner with the sophistication, capabilities and capital required for sustainable relationships. For institutional investors, LordCap offers attractive risk-adjusted returns not commonly available in the capital markets.

Stephen CeurvorstManaging Partner and Founder, Lord Capital LLC

Stephen Ceurvorst has over 25 years of experience in banking and securitization. Prior to Lord Capital, Mr. Ceurvorst held various senior positions with predecessor banks to JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and BNY Mellon. Mr. Ceurvorst serves as Chairman of the Japan-America Society of Pennsylvania, Board Member of the Washington DC-based Structured Finance Industry Group, Guild Member of the Worshipful Company of International Bankers in London, Advisory Board Member of the Friends of Dartmouth Track & Field in Hanover NH, and is the former Treasurer of the NY Arts Alliance in New York. He earned his bachelor’s degree from Dartmouth College, and his master’s degree from Columbia University School of Business.

Growth opportunities in Central Eastern EuropeAustria has always been a pioneer in the CEE region. About 1,000 CEE headquarters in Austria give proof of Austria’s role as a door opener to neighboring countries in Central and Eastern Europe. With the transformation of countries of the CEE region Austria’s role has changed as well, moving to the more sophisticated function of transformation agent.

Austrian companies as well as public institutions act as a driving force in the CEE region by fostering the development of infrastructure, institutions and a business environment that meet the requirements of European standards.

The CEE region remains one of the most dynamic regions worldwide. The CEE region continues to outpace growth in most parts of the world. Despite some markets that face difficulties like Hungary and although the region was severely hit by the crisis in 2008/09, the individual countries of the region have done a great deal to improve their fiscal standing. With an overall population of 420 million people (compared to 330 million in the euro area and 310 million in the US) who continue to aspire to higher living standards and improved infrastructure and services, above average growth is most likely to continue.

OVERVIEW 2014-2015 AND OUTLOOK 2016-2018

Note: LFS: Labour Force Survey. EU-CEE: European Union-Central and Eastern Europe. EA: Euro area. WB: Western Balkans. 1) wiiw estimates.2) Current account data include transactions within the region (sum over individual countries). Source: wiiw (data until 2015 as of February 2016), Eurostat. Forecasts by wiiw (Feb 2016) and European Commission for EU and euro area (European Economic Forecast, Winter 2016).

GDPreal change in % against prev. year

Consumer priceschange in % against prev. year

Unemployment (LFS)rate in %, annual average

Current accountin % of GDP

Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

EU-CEEBulgaria 1,5 3,0 2,5 2,5 2,7 -1,6 -1,1 1,0 1,0 1,5 11,4 9,3 9,0 8,5 8,0 1,2 1,2 0,7 0,0 -0,4Croatia -0,4 1,5 1,4 1,8 2,0 0,2 -0,3 0,5 1,0 1,0 17,3 16,6 16,5 16,0 16,0 0,8 4,6 3,4 2,2 1,9Czech Republic 2,0 4,3 2,4 2,3 2,4 0,4 0,3 1,5 1,7 1,9 6,1 5,1 5,0 4,9 4,9 0,6 1,7 0,5 0,0 -0,5Estonia 2,9 1,2 2,2 2,4 2,6 0,5 0,1 0,5 1,5 2,5 7,4 6,2 6,2 5,9 5,5 1,0 2,5 -0,2 -1,9 -3,5Hungary 3,7 2,9 2,2 2,3 2,9 0,0 0,1 1,7 2,5 3,0 7,7 6,8 6,5 6,3 6,1 2,3 5,0 4,4 4,1 4,0Latvia 2,4 2,7 3,0 3,2 3,5 0,7 0,2 0,5 1,8 2,1 10,8 9,9 9,3 8,9 8,6 -2,0 -1,2 -3,6 -3,8 -3,6Lithuania 3,0 1,6 3,0 3,4 3,5 0,2 -0,7 0,1 2,1 2,3 10,7 9,1 8,5 8,0 7,5 3,6 -2,5 -2,6 -3,0 -3,3Poland 3,3 3,6 3,4 3,2 3,4 0,1 -0,7 1,2 1,8 2,0 9,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,5 -2,0 -0,2 -1,5 -2,0 -3,5Romania 3,0 3,7 4,0 3,0 3,5 1,4 -0,4 0,0 2,0 2,5 6,8 6,8 6,7 6,6 6,5 -0,5 -1,1 -1,7 -1,9 -2,3Slovakia 2,5 3,6 3,0 3,2 3,3 -0,1 -0,3 0,6 1,5 1,8 13,2 11,5 10,6 10,0 9,7 0,1 -1,2 -1,6 -2,0 -2,0Slovenia 3,0 2,9 2,0 2,3 2,8 0,4 -0,8 0,5 1,0 1,0 9,7 9,0 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 7,3 5,3 4,7 4,0EU-CEE 1)2) 2,8 3,4 3,0 2,9 3,1 0,3 -0,4 0,9 1,8 2,1 9,0 7,9 7,5 7,2 7,0 -0,1 0,8 -0,2 -0,7 -1,5EA-19 0,9 1,6 1,7 1,9 - 0,4 0,0 0,5 1,5 - 11,6 11,0 10,5 10,2 - 3,0 3,7 3,6 3,4 -EU-28 1,4 1,9 1,9 2,0 - 0,5 0,0 0,5 1,6 - 10,2 9,5 9,0 8,7 - 1,6 2,1 2,1 2,0 -

OVERVIEW 2014-2015 AND OUTLOOK 2016-2018

Source: wiiw (data until 2015 as of February 2016), Eurostat. Forecasts by wiiw (Feb 2016) and European Commission for EU and euro area (European Economic Forecast, Winter 2016).

Note: LFS: Labour Force Survey. EU-CEE: European Union-Central and Eastern Europe. EA: Euro area. WB: Western Balkans. 3) Unemployment rate by registration. 4) From 2014 including Crimea. 5) From 2014 excluding Crimea and parts of Donbas.

GDPreal change in % against prev. year

Consumer priceschange in % against prev. year

Unemployment (LFS)rate in %, annual average

Current accountin % of GDP

Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

EU-CEEBulgaria 1,5 3,0 2,5 2,5 2,7 -1,6 -1,1 1,0 1,0 1,5 11,4 9,3 9,0 8,5 8,0 1,2 1,2 0,7 0,0 -0,4Croatia -0,4 1,5 1,4 1,8 2,0 0,2 -0,3 0,5 1,0 1,0 17,3 16,6 16,5 16,0 16,0 0,8 4,6 3,4 2,2 1,9Czech Republic 2,0 4,3 2,4 2,3 2,4 0,4 0,3 1,5 1,7 1,9 6,1 5,1 5,0 4,9 4,9 0,6 1,7 0,5 0,0 -0,5Estonia 2,9 1,2 2,2 2,4 2,6 0,5 0,1 0,5 1,5 2,5 7,4 6,2 6,2 5,9 5,5 1,0 2,5 -0,2 -1,9 -3,5Hungary 3,7 2,9 2,2 2,3 2,9 0,0 0,1 1,7 2,5 3,0 7,7 6,8 6,5 6,3 6,1 2,3 5,0 4,4 4,1 4,0Latvia 2,4 2,7 3,0 3,2 3,5 0,7 0,2 0,5 1,8 2,1 10,8 9,9 9,3 8,9 8,6 -2,0 -1,2 -3,6 -3,8 -3,6Lithuania 3,0 1,6 3,0 3,4 3,5 0,2 -0,7 0,1 2,1 2,3 10,7 9,1 8,5 8,0 7,5 3,6 -2,5 -2,6 -3,0 -3,3Poland 3,3 3,6 3,4 3,2 3,4 0,1 -0,7 1,2 1,8 2,0 9,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,5 -2,0 -0,2 -1,5 -2,0 -3,5Romania 3,0 3,7 4,0 3,0 3,5 1,4 -0,4 0,0 2,0 2,5 6,8 6,8 6,7 6,6 6,5 -0,5 -1,1 -1,7 -1,9 -2,3Slovakia 2,5 3,6 3,0 3,2 3,3 -0,1 -0,3 0,6 1,5 1,8 13,2 11,5 10,6 10,0 9,7 0,1 -1,2 -1,6 -2,0 -2,0Slovenia 3,0 2,9 2,0 2,3 2,8 0,4 -0,8 0,5 1,0 1,0 9,7 9,0 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 7,3 5,3 4,7 4,0EU-CEE 1)2) 2,8 3,4 3,0 2,9 3,1 0,3 -0,4 0,9 1,8 2,1 9,0 7,9 7,5 7,2 7,0 -0,1 0,8 -0,2 -0,7 -1,5EA-19 0,9 1,6 1,7 1,9 - 0,4 0,0 0,5 1,5 - 11,6 11,0 10,5 10,2 - 3,0 3,7 3,6 3,4 -EU-28 1,4 1,9 1,9 2,0 - 0,5 0,0 0,5 1,6 - 10,2 9,5 9,0 8,7 - 1,6 2,1 2,1 2,0 -

Western BalkansAlbania 2,0 2,6 3,2 3,5 3,6 1,6 1,9 2,3 2,5 2,8 17,5 17,0 16,8 16,5 16,4 -12,9 -10,0 -9,9 -9,8 -9,3Bosnia and Herzegovina 1,1 2,3 2,9 2,9 3,1 -0,9 -1,0 1,0 2,0 2,0 27,5 27,7 27,2 26,1 25,0 -7,8 -7,0 -8,0 -8,0 -7,0Kosovo 1,2 3,7 3,9 4,3 4,0 0,4 -0,5 1,0 2,0 3,0 35,3 34,0 34,0 33,0 32,0 -7,8 -8,2 -9,0 -8,6 -8,3Macedonia 3,5 3,5 3,4 3,1 3,1 -0,3 -0,3 1,0 2,0 2,0 28,0 27,0 27,0 26,0 25,0 -0,8 0,0 -4,0 -4,0 -4,0Montenegro 1,8 3,4 2,8 2,8 3,1 -0,5 1,4 2,0 2,0 2,0 18,0 18,0 17,5 17,0 16,5 -15,2 -14,6 -14,6 -14,6 -14,0Serbia -1,8 0,7 1,6 1,7 2,0 2,9 1,9 2,0 3,0 3,0 19,4 17,0 17,0 17,0 16,0 -6,0 -6,0 -6,0 -6,0 -6,0WB 1)2) 0,3 2,0 2,5 2,6 2,8 1,3 0,9 1,7 2,5 2,6 22,5 21,1 21,0 20,6 19,8 -7,2 -6,6 -7,5 -7,1 -6,9Turkey 2,9 3,3 3,2 3,1 3,0 8,9 7,7 8,2 7,4 6,8 9,9 10,6 10,3 10,2 10,1 -5,9 -4,6 -5,2 -5,0 -5,0Belarus 3) 1,7 -3,9 -2,6 0,5 1,5 18,1 13,5 14,0 13,0 12,0 0,5 1,0 2,0 2,5 2,5 -6,9 -2,0 -2,5 -2,7 -2,9Kazakhstan 4,1 1,2 1,0 2,5 3,5 6,7 6,6 12,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 5,0 5,2 5,0 5,0 2,6 -2,9 -3,2 -2,9 -2,6Russia 4) 0,8 -3,7 -0,8 0,8 1,8 7,8 15,5 10,0 6,0 6,0 5,2 5,6 5,3 5,3 5,3 2,9 5,0 4,8 4,2 4,9Ukraine 5) -6,6 -10,5 0,0 1,9 2,5 12,1 48,7 17,0 8,0 6,0 9,3 10,0 11,0 11,0 10,0 -3,4 -0,2 -0,1 -0,1 -0,9

CESEE: GROWTH STABILIZES

Source: wiiw forecast.

Note: Current forecast and revisions relative to the wiiw Autumn 2015 Forecast Report. Color scale reflects variation from the minimum (red) to the maximum (green) values.

Real GDP growth forecast and revisions

2015 Forecast, % Revisions, pp

2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017

EU-CEE

BG 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.7 0.7 -0.1 -0.5HR 1.5 1.4 1.8 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.2CZ 4.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0EE 1.2 2.2 2.2 2.6 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4HU 2.9 2.2 2.3 2.9 0.0 0.1 0.3LV 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.5 0.3 0.0 0.2LT 1.6 3.0 3.4 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0PL 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.4 0.1 0.1 -0.1RO 3.7 4.0 3.0 3.5 0.3 0.3 0.3SK 3.6 3.0 3.2 3.3 0.4 0.0 0.3SI 2.9 2.0 2.3 2.8 0.2 -0.2 0.0

Western Balkans

AL 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1BA 2.3 2.9 2.9 3.1 0.5 0.6 0.5XK 3.7 3.9 4.3 1.0 -0.6 0.4 0.2MK 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.1 0.1 0.7 0.0ME 3.4 2.8 2.8 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0RS 0.7 1.6 1.7 2.0 0.6 0.7 0.3

Turkey TR 3.3 3.12 3.1 3.0 0.3 0.1 0.0

CIS-3BY -3.9 -2.6 0.5 1.5 -0.1 -2.6 -0.9KZ 1.2 1.0 2.5 3.5 -0.3 -1.5 -1.0RU -3.7 -0.8 0.8 1.8 0.0 -1.8 -0.6

Ukraine UA -10.5 0.0 1.9 2.5 1.0 0.0 0.1

Country codes (in alphabetic order) and abbreviationsAL Albania ME MontenegroBA Bosnia and Herzegovina MK MacedoniaBG Bulgaria PL PolandBY Belarus RO RomaniaCZ Czech Republic RS SerbiaEE Estonia RU RussiaHR Croatia SI SloveniaHU Hungary SK SlovakiaKZ Kazakhstan TR TurkeyLT Lithuania UA UkraineLV Latvia XK Kosovo

CESEE Central, East and Southeast EuropeCIS Commonwealth of Independent States

EFSI European Fund for Strategic InvestmentsEU-CEE European Union – Central and Eastern Europe

NEW MEMBER STATES: GROWTH SPEED-UP 2015 MOSTLY DUE TO IMPROVED NET EXPORTS

GDP growth in 2014-2015 and contribution of individual demand components in percentage points

8

4

0

-4

-8

-12 HR EE LV SI LT BG RO PLHUSKCZ

Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national and Eurostat statistics, forecasts by wiiw, July 2015.Remark: Ranking 2015.

GDP (growth in %)Net exportsHousehold final consumptionGross fixed capital formation

’14 | ‘15

CESEE: FISCAL SPACE FOR GROWTH STIMULATION IN HALF OF CESEE

Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national and Eurostat statistics.Note: Axes denote the limits included in the EU Excessive Deficit Procedure: for debt 60% of GDP, for deficits 3% of GDP.

General government balance in % of GDP

Gene

ral g

over

nmen

t gro

ss d

ebt,

in %

of D

P100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0

HR

EE

LV

SI

LT

BG

ROPL

HURS AL

ME

UA

TR

BA

RU

MK

KZ

XK

BY

SKCZ

CESEE: CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS AND EXTERNAL DEBT DECLINED

Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national and Eurostat statistics.Note: Red dots: 2015. Light Red dots: 2010-2014 average.

Current account balance, % GDP

Gros

s ex

tern

al d

ebt,

% o

f GDP

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10

HRHR

EEEE

LV

LV

SISI

LTBG

RO

PLPO

PLMK

HU

HU

RS

RS

AL

AL

ME

ME

UA

UA

TR

TR

BG

BABA

RURU

MK

KZ

KZ

XKXK

BY

BY

SKSK

CZCZ

LT

CESEE: MOST COUNTRIES ON CATCHING-UP TRAJECTORIES

GDP per capita at PPS, EU-28 average = 100

Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national and Eurostat statistics, wiiw forecasts.

201820152010100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0AL BA ME MK RS TR XK KZBY RU UAEE LV SILTBG ROPLHUHR SKCZ

CESEE: EXPORTS INCREASING ESPECIALLY IN COUNTRIES INTEGRATED IN INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION NETWORKS

Source: wiiw Monthly Database incorporating national and Eurostat statistics.

Exports of goods (nominal, euro-based), change in % against preceding year, 3-month moving average

353025201510

50

-5-10

70605040302010

0-10

Jan. 10 Jan. 11 Jan. 12 Jan. 13 Jan. 14 Jan. 15PL HUSK SICZ HR

Jan. 10 Jan. 11 Jan. 12 Jan. 13 Jan. 14 Jan. 15EE LVRO LTBG

10080604020

0-20-40

10080604020

0-20-40

Jan. 10 Jan. 11 Jan. 12 Jan. 13 Jan. 14 Jan. 15ME RSMK BAAL

Jan. 10 Jan. 11 Jan. 12 Jan. 13 Jan. 14 Jan. 15RU UAKZTR

CESEE: CONDITIONS FOR FINANCING INVESTMENTS IMPROVED

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Bank non-performing loans, % of total loans, 2014 and 2015

2015

Source: National Bank statistics, wiiw own calculations.

Note: Loans more than 90 days overdue. EE, LT – Loans that are more than 60 days overdue. RU – According to Russian Accounting Standards overdue debt is defined as debt service overdue, therefore the data are not fully comparable with other countries.

AL BA ME MK RS TR KZ RU UAEE LV SILTBG ROPLHUHR SKCZ

2014

CESEE: INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF GREENFIELD FDI

250

200

150

100

50

0

Number of new greenfield investment projects, 2014 and 2015

2014 2015

Source: fdimarkets.com.Note: 2015 incomplete, subject to revision.

AL BA ME MK RS TR KZ RU UAEE LV SILTBG ROPLHUHR SKCZ

CEE BANKING: UPSIDE FOLLOWS RESTRUCTURING ROMANIA, HUNGARY & SLOVENIA TURN-AROUND MARKETS

Source: national sources, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH

Loan-to-GDP ratios (%)

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

n Adjustment in loan-to-GDP ratios offers upside now for new lending cycle

n However, upside came at the expense of substantial costs (several loss-making years, FCY loan conversion, large NPL sell-offs)

n Experience in Hungary, Romania and Slovenia shows that similar action might be needed in other SEE countries and Ukraine

Peak2014

Start credit cycle

Hungary Romania Slovenia

CEE BANKING: AUSTRIAN CEE FOOTPRINT AT BANKS WITH MACRO- AND MICRO-LEVEL CHALLENGE

Source: national sources, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH

Share in CEE cross-border claims

100 %

90 %

80 %

70 %

60 %

50 %

40 %

30 %

20 %

10 %

0 %

n Certain underperformance compared to IT/FR lenders based on strong gearing towards more challenging markets (nowadays or in recent years), like Hungary, Romania, Russia

n Micro-level issues (e.g. capital positions, local AT regulation, consolidation pressure in AT) with an impact as well

Italian banksFrench banksGerman banksGreek banksBelgian banksOthers

Austrian banks

Dec- 09 Dec- 10 Dec- 11 Dec- 12 Dec- 13 Dec- 14

24 24 25 27 27 26

7,4 7,4 7,2 5,9 5,4 4,87,1 7,1 6,9 6,1 6,0 6,7

14 13 11 10 10 10

14 14 14 15 16 17

14 15 16 16 17 17

19 19 20 19 19 18

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

CESEE: LITTLE RISK FOR AUSTRIAN COMPETITIVENESS IN THE LONG RUN

Wage and productivity growth, in relation to Austria ten-year average (2012-2014)

Source: wiiw Database, AMECO, Eurostat.

Productivity growth, in %

Chan

ge in

mon

thly

gro

ss w

ages

(EUR

), in

%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

UA

RU

RS

BAAL

TR

AT

MK

ME

KZ

HR

EE

LV

SI

LT

BG

RO

PL

HU

SK

CZ

AUSTRIAN FOREIGN DEMAND: CESEE HAD LARGER CONTRIBUTION THAN GERMANY – IN THE FUTURE MORE BALANCEDPotential export contribution to Austrian GDP growth, in %

Source: WEO, Eurostat, AMECO, wiiw Database incorporating national and Eurostat statistics.

0,5

0,4

0,3

0,2

0,1

0,0

-0,1

-0,2

-0,3

-0,4

-0,5

1,5

1,0

0,5

0,0

-0,5

-1,0

-1,5

Indi

vidu

al c

ount

ries

Tota

l

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Germany TotalUSA CESEE

THE SEVEN DRIVERS OF CHANGE PROPOSED IN THE WWW FOR EUROPE STRATEGY

Source: WWW for Europe Synthesis Report, Vienna, Brussels, 2016.

Redirecting Innovation

Reforming Welfare

Smarter Public Sector

New Dynamics

Reforming Finance

Decoupling Energy

Skills and Symmetric Flexibility

DRIVERSOF

CHANGE

THE EUROPEAN ROAD TO WELLBEING

Source: WWW for Europe Synthesis Report, Vienna, Brussels, 2016.

WELLBEING Economic Dynamics Social inclusiveness Environmental Sustainability

2. DRIVERS OF CHANGE Redirecting innovation New dynamics Reforming welfare Skills and symmetric flexibility Decoupling energy Smarter public sector Reforming finance

3. FACILITATING REFORMS Overcoming reform resistance Pluralistic and policentric Participation of stakeholders, civil society & NGOs Bottom-up initiatives, new actors Monitoring progress

1. FOLLOWING THREE GUIDING PRINCIPLES Simultaneity between goals High road ambition Two-stage strategy

MIGRATION & ASYLUM STATISTICS

Monthly Arrivals through the Mediterranean, 2014-2015*

Source: Eurostat

* These data are for all Mediterranean crossings: through the Aegean to the Greek islands; through the Central Mediterranean to Italy (and Malta); and through the Western Mediterranean to Spain.

240.000

220.000

200.000

180.000

160.000

140.000

120.000

100.000

80.000

60.000

40.000

20.000

0

Jan Apr JulFeb May AugMar Jun Sep Oct Nov Dec

2014 2015

Yearly Arrivals

1.000.000

500.000

0

MIGRATION & ASYLUM STATISTICS

Arrivals to Select EU Member States, 2015*

Sources: Eurostat, BAMF, UNHCR, Swedish Migration Agency, Hungarian Central Statistical Office

* This chart is a composite of data primarily from national reports to Eurostat. Since reporting is episodic, the data measure primarily applications (Austria, France, Spain, UK, Norway, Sweden), but also arrivals or registrations (in the remaining countries).

1.200.000

1.000.000

800.000

600.000

400.000

200.000

—

Austria Sweden UKFrance Germany Greece Hungary Italy Norway Spain

If you want to learn more about 21st Austria, please contact:

Marc Lemcke | New YorkE [email protected] +1 917 385 4299

Gerry Elias | LondonE [email protected] +44 78 79 66 61 66

Verena Nowotny | ViennaE [email protected] +43 1 5227804

www.21st-austria.at

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