Wednesday 12th December 2012, 10:30AM Radisson Grafton ...
44
Operational Forum Meeting Wednesday 12th December 2012, 10:30AM Radisson Grafton Hotel, 130 Tottenham Court Road, London.
Transcript of Wednesday 12th December 2012, 10:30AM Radisson Grafton ...
Operational Forum Meeting
Wednesday 12th December 2012, 10:30AM
Radisson Grafton Hotel, 130 Tottenham Court Road, London.
System Management Principles Statement
3
System Management Principles
Statement
�Compliance report for October and November 2012
�Summary of balancing actions and breaches for
October and November 2012
�Performance compared to last year
4
Summary Report
2648Total
830Total Number of Sell Actions
1818Total Number of Buy Actions
Nov 2012Oct 2012
00Number of Non-Material Breaches
00Number of Material Breaches
Nov 2012Oct 2012
5
2011 / 2012 Comparison
0
0
369
Nov 2011
0
0
334
Oct 2012
00Number of Non-Material Breaches
(Calendar year to date)
00Number of Material Breaches
(Calendar year to date)
360340Number of Balancing Actions
(Calendar year to date)
Nov 2012Oct 2011
Operational Overview
Weather
8
National Composite Weather
October to November 2012 Vs Historical Range
National Composite Weather October to November2012 compared to 1929 to 2011
-2-10123456789
1011121314151617
01-
Oct
04-
Oct
07-
Oct
10-
Oct
13-
Oct
16-
Oct
19-
Oct
22-
Oct
25-
Oct
28-
Oct
31-
Oct
03-
Nov
06-
Nov
09-
Nov
12-
Nov
15-
Nov
18-
Nov
21-
Nov
24-
Nov
27-
Nov
30-
Nov
Historical range 2012 Seasonal Normal
9
Mean
Co
mp
osite
Weath
er V
aria
ble
s
Octo
be
r 2012
Vs
Pre
vio
us
Yrs
.
Mean
Natio
nal C
om
po
site
Wea
ther fo
r Octo
ber
7 8 9
10
11
12
13
19741992198119931964198019732003201219872008197519941991200219661982198319982000199720101972196720041988197619631965199919701986198419852007197919711996197720091990198919781968201119952006196920052001
degrees CWV
20
12
/13
201
1/1
2O
the
r ye
ars
10
Co
mp
osite
Weath
er V
aria
ble
s
Octo
be
r 2012
Natio
nal C
WV
an
d E
P2
SN
CW
6 7 8 9
10
11
12
13
14
15
01/10/2012
02/10/2012
03/10/2012
04/10/2012
05/10/2012
06/10/2012
07/10/2012
08/10/2012
09/10/2012
10/10/2012
11/10/2012
12/10/2012
13/10/2012
14/10/2012
15/10/2012
16/10/2012
17/10/2012
18/10/2012
19/10/2012
20/10/2012
21/10/2012
22/10/2012
23/10/2012
24/10/2012
25/10/2012
26/10/2012
27/10/2012
28/10/2012
29/10/2012
30/10/2012
31/10/2012
11
Mean
Co
mp
osite
Weath
er V
aria
ble
s
No
vem
ber
20
12 V
s P
revio
us
Yrs
.
Mean
Natio
na
l Co
mp
osite
Weath
er fo
r No
vem
ber
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
19651985199319661969196720101988199619801977197319711968197219981975197619741987199120051989197920001990201220081992196419811986198219832007200119991970199519631984200420062003199720021978200920111994
degrees CWV
20
12
/13
20
11
/12
Oth
er y
ea
rs
12
Co
mp
osite
Weath
er V
aria
ble
s
No
ve
mb
er 2
01
2
Natio
nal C
WV
an
d E
P2 S
NC
W
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
11
12
13
14
15
01/11/2012
02/11/2012
03/11/2012
04/11/2012
05/11/2012
06/11/2012
07/11/2012
08/11/2012
09/11/2012
10/11/2012
11/11/2012
12/11/2012
13/11/2012
14/11/2012
15/11/2012
16/11/2012
17/11/2012
18/11/2012
19/11/2012
20/11/2012
21/11/2012
22/11/2012
23/11/2012
24/11/2012
25/11/2012
26/11/2012
27/11/2012
28/11/2012
29/11/2012
30/11/2012
13
Mean
Co
mp
osite
Weath
er V
aria
ble
s
Octo
be
r-No
ve
mb
er 2
01
2 V
s P
revio
us
Yrs
.
Mea
n N
atio
nal C
om
po
site
Wea
ther fo
r Oct. to
No
v.
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
11
12
13
1993/941974/751965/661980/811992/931985/861966/671973/741981/821967/682010/111975/761987/881988/891964/651998/991991/922012/131972/731976/772008/092000/011996/971971/721977/781982/832003/041983/841979/801969/701968/691989/901986/871999/001963/641990/911970/712002/032004/051997/982007/081984/852005/061994/952009/101978/791995/962001/022006/072011/12
degrees CWV
20
12
/13
20
11
/12
Oth
er y
ea
rs
14
Co
mp
osite
Weath
er V
aria
ble
s
Octo
be
r-No
ve
mb
er 2
01
2
Natio
na
l CW
V a
nd
EP
2 S
NC
W
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
11
12
13
14
15
01/10/201202/10/201203/10/201204/10/201205/10/201206/10/201207/10/201208/10/201209/10/201210/10/201211/10/201212/10/201213/10/201214/10/201215/10/201216/10/201217/10/201218/10/201219/10/201220/10/201221/10/201222/10/201223/10/201224/10/201225/10/201226/10/201227/10/201228/10/201229/10/201230/10/201231/10/201201/11/201202/11/201203/11/201204/11/201205/11/201206/11/201207/11/201208/11/201209/11/201210/11/201211/11/201212/11/201213/11/201214/11/201215/11/201216/11/201217/11/201218/11/201219/11/201220/11/201221/11/201222/11/201223/11/201224/11/201225/11/201226/11/201227/11/201228/11/201229/11/201230/11/2012
Demands
16
Gas Demand BreakdownOctober-November 2012 Vs 2011
Gas Demand Breakdown
1st October 2012 to 30th November 2012 vs 2011
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
01-O
ct-
12
08-O
ct-
12
15-O
ct-
12
22-O
ct-
12
29-O
ct-
12
05-N
ov-1
2
12-N
ov-1
2
19-N
ov-1
2
26-N
ov-1
2
mcm
NDM DM (Excl Interconnectors) Total Interconnector ExportStorage Injection SND Cold DemandWarm Demand 2011 Demand
17
LDZ Demand2011/12 Vs 2012/13
Gas Demand Breakdown [LDZ 2011/12 vs 2012/13]
1st October 2012 to 30th November 2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
01-O
ct-
12
08-O
ct-
12
15-O
ct-
12
22-O
ct-
12
29-O
ct-
12
05-N
ov-1
2
12-N
ov-1
2
19-N
ov-1
2
26-N
ov-1
2
Gas Day
mcm
LDZ Demand 2012/13 LDZ Demand 2011/12
18
Power Generation 1st October 2012 to 30th November 2012
Gas Consumption for Power Generation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
01/10/2012 08/10/2012 15/10/2012 22/10/2012 29/10/2012 05/11/2012 12/11/2012 19/11/2012 26/11/2012
mcm
/d
Actual for Power Generation Low Base Case High 2011 Actual Power Generation
Supplies
20
Gas Supply Breakdown 1st June 2012 to 30th September 2012
Gas Supply Breakdown
1st October 2012 to 30th November 2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
01-O
ct-
12
08-O
ct-
12
15-O
ct-
12
22-O
ct-
12
29-O
ct-
12
05-N
ov-1
2
12-N
ov-1
2
19-N
ov-1
2
26-N
ov-1
2
Gas Day
mcm
/d
UKCS Norw ay (est) LNG Imports
BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies
MRS Supplies SRS Supplies MIPI [D+1 System Entry Volume 2011]
21
Storage Stocks - UKFrom 1st October 2012 to 30th November 2012 vs Previous Years
LRS Stocks
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
TW
h
LRS 2010/2011 LRS 2011/2012 LRS 2012/2013
MRS Stocks
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Ju
l
Aug
Sep
TW
h
MRS 2010/2011 MRS 2011/2012 MRS 2012/2013
SRS Stocks
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
TW
h
MRS 2010/2011 SRS 2011/2012 SRS 2012/2013
22
Storage Stocks - EUFrom 1st October 2012 to 30th November 2012 vs Previous Years
Total EU Weekly Storage Levels
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
p
Date
mc
m
2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013
Hub Area Stock Level (mcm) % Full
Baumgarten 12647 74%
Germany 17160 85%
Iberian 2269 89%
NBP 4399 92%
France 9629 77%
PSV 14654 92%
TTF (Eurohub) 1873 90%
ZEE 496 70%
Total Hubs 63126 83%
Stocklevel Status at 06:00CET on
Wednesday 05.12.12
Transporter Actions and Neutrality
24
Sys
tem
Pric
es
1s
tO
cto
ber 2
012 to
30
thN
ovem
ber 2
012
Sy
ste
m P
rice
s
1s
t Oc
tob
er 2
01
2 to
30
th N
ov
em
be
r 20
12
30
40
50
60
70
80
01-Oct-12
04-Oct-12
07-Oct-12
10-Oct-12
13-Oct-12
16-Oct-12
19-Oct-12
22-Oct-12
25-Oct-12
28-Oct-12
31-Oct-12
03-Nov-12
06-Nov-12
09-Nov-12
12-Nov-12
15-Nov-12
18-Nov-12
21-Nov-12
24-Nov-12
27-Nov-12
30-Nov-12
p/therm
SA
PS
MP
Buy
SM
P S
ell
SA
P 2
011
25
Transporter Energy Traded on the OCMBuys and Sells by Month From December 2011 to November 2012
National Grid Monthly Buys and Sells
December 2011 to November 2012
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
De
c-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oc
t-1
2
No
v-1
2
GW
h
Buy Sell
National Grid Balancing
Dec 2011 to Nov 2012
3,300
3,350
3,400
3,450
3,500
3,550
3,600
3,650
GW
h
Buy Sell
26
Days of Default SMP PricesFrom December 2011 to November 2012
SMP Buy SMP SELL Both
Oct-12 74% 74% 55%
Nov-12 80% 97% 77%
SMPB Calculation Summary
December 2011 to November 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
%age
SMPB [NG Set Price] SMPB [Default Marginal]
SMPS Calculation Summary
December 2011 to November 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
%age
SMPS [NG Set Price] SMPS [Default Marginal]
27
Transporter Actions on the OCM MechanismRevenues / CostsFrom 1st December 2011 to 30th November 2012
Transporter Actions on OCM
December 2011 to November 2012
-£15.00
-£10.00
-£5.00
£0.00
£5.00
£10.00
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
Nov-1
2
Month
£m
System Cost - Buy System Cost - Sell
Quantity Average Price Cost
TWh p/kWh Therms £m
System Buy 3.41 2.057 60.49 £70.1
System Sell 3.593 1.933 56.64 -£69.2
Net Position 7.006 £0.86
28
Shipper ImbalanceRevenues / CostsFrom 1st November 2011 to 31st October 2012
Shipper Imbalances - Revenue Costs
November 2011 to October 2012
-£40.00
-£30.00
-£20.00
-£10.00
£0.00
£10.00
£20.00
£30.00
£40.00
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
Month
£m
System Cost - Buy System Cost - Sell
```
Quantity Average Price Average price Cost
(TWH) P/KWh P/Therm £m
System Buy 9.47 1.932 56.62 £246.0
Shipper Over Delivery/Cost to Neutrality
System Sell -9.32 1.945 59.28 -£228.5
Shipper Under Delivery/Revenue to Neutrality
Net Position 0.15 £17.6
29
Scheduling RevenuesFrom 1st November 2011 to 31st October 2012
Scheduling Revenues
November 2011 to October 2012
-£0.70
-£0.60
-£0.50
-£0.40
-£0.30
-£0.20
-£0.10
£0.00
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
Month
£m
Input Output
Cost £m
Input -£2.63
Output -£1.36
Total -£3.99
30
Balancing CostsFrom 1st November 2011 to 31st October 2012
Balancing Costs
November 2011 to October 2012
-£12.00
-£9.00
-£6.00
-£3.00
£0.00
£3.00
£6.00
£9.00
£12.00
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
Month
£m
OCM Imbalance Sched
£m
Transporter Actions on OCM £2.35
Imbalance Charge -£5.45
Scheduling Charge -£4.00
Balancing Cost -£7.10
31
Capacity NeutralityRevenues from WDDSEC and DAI
From 1st April 2012 to 31st October 2012
St Fergus £61,097
Teesside £11,795
Barrow £145
Theddlethorpe £9,031
Easington £117,575
Bacton £12,890
Other £0
Net Revenue £212,533
Capacity Neutrality
Revenues from WDDSEC and DAI
April 2012 to October 2012
£0
£20,000
£40,000
£60,000
£80,000
£100,000
£120,000
St
Fer
gu
s
Tee
ssi
de
Ba
rro
wT
hed
dle
tho
rpe
Eas
ing
ton
Ba
cto
n
Oth
er
32
Capacity NeutralityPrompt Buy BacksFrom 1st April 2012 to 31st October 2012
ASEP Cost No. of Days Energy (kWh)
St.Fergus £0.00 0 0
Teesside £0.00 0 0
Barrow £0.00 0 0
Theddlethorpe £0.00 0 0
Easington £0.00 0 0
Bacton £0.00 0 0
TOTAL £0.00 0 0
33
Capacity NeutralityCapacity Management Agreement (Including RMTTSEC)
From 1st April 2012 to 31st October 2012
Month Cost
Apr-12 £0.00
May-12 £0.00
Jun-12 £0.00
Jul-12 £0.00
Aug-12 £0.00
Sep-12 £0.00
Oct-12 £0.00
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
TOTAL * £0.00
* Includes Total Capacity Constraint Management Costs
implemented through MOD 0349 [Introduction of a Force
Majeure Capacity Management Arrangement].
34
Capacity NeutralityRevenues from Locational Sells and PRI Charges
From 1st April 2012 to 31st October 2012
Month Revenue
Apr-12 £0.00
May-12 £0.00
Jun-12 £0.00
Jul-12 £0.00
Aug-12 £0.00
Sep-12 £0.00
Oct-12 £0.00
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
TOTAL £0.00
35
Capacity NeutralityRevenues from Entry Cap Overruns and Non-Obligated Sales
From 1st April 2012 to 31st October 2012
Month Entry Cap Overruns Non-Obligated Sales
Apr-12 -£98,225 -£12
May-12 -£68,751 £0
Jun-12 -£3 £0
Jul-12 -£10,523 £0
Aug-12 -£3,207 £0
Sep-12 -£33,032 £0
Oct-12 -£27,884 -£55,974
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
TOTAL -£241,625 -£55,986
36
Capacity NeutralityNet Cost / Revenue From 1st April 2012 to 31st October 2012
-£510,144Net Revenue
£0Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges
-£55,986Non-Obligated Sales Revenue
-£241,625Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue
£0Capacity management Agreement
£0Buy Back Costs
-£212,533WDDSEC/DAI Revenue
RevenueMonth
Operational Overview
November 13th 2012
38
Gas Supply Breakdown 1st June 2012 to 30th September 2012
Gas Supply Breakdown
1st October 2012 to 30th November 2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
01-O
ct-
12
08-O
ct-
12
15-O
ct-
12
22-O
ct-
12
29-O
ct-
12
05-N
ov-1
2
12-N
ov-1
2
19-N
ov-1
2
26-N
ov-1
2
Gas Day
mcm
/d
UKCS Norw ay (est) LNG Imports
BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies
MRS Supplies SRS Supplies MIPI [D+1 System Entry Volume 2011]
39
Norwegian Flows
40
No
rweg
ian
Flo
ws
No
rwe
gia
n F
low
12
-13
th N
ove
mb
er
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
06:07
07:17
08:27
09:42
10:52
12:02
13:23
14:33
15:43
16:53
18:03
19:18
20:28
21:38
22:49
23:59
01:14
02:24
03:34
04:44
05:54
07:09
08:20
09:30
10:40
11:50
16:25
17:36
18:46
19:56
21:06
22:16
23:31
00:41
01:52
Tim
esta
mp
Flow Volume (mcm/h)
Fra
nce
Belg
ium
Germ
any
UK
41
Su
pp
ly &
Dem
an
d P
rofile
s
13
th N
ovem
be
r - Su
pp
ly/D
em
an
d P
rofile
s
20
0
20
5
21
0
21
5
22
0
22
5
23
0
23
5
24
0
24
5
25
0
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
Supply (DFN) / Demand mcm
DF
ND
em
an
d
42
Lin
ep
ack
13th
No
vem
ber - L
inep
ack
31
0
31
5
32
0
32
5
33
0
33
5
34
0
34
5
35
0
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
Linepack (mcm)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0 10
20
Actions and Shipper Nomination Imbalance (mcm)
Actio
n T
ake
nA
ctu
al L
PP
CLP
N
atio
nal T
arg
et L
ineP
ack
43
Ho
urly
No
min
atio
n Im
bala
nce
Ho
urly
No
min
atio
n Im
bala
nce
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10 0
10
20
30
40
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
Imb
ala
nc
e (m
cm
)
44
Flo
ws
13th
No
ve
mb
er - F
low
s
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
Flow (mcm)
EA
SIN
GT
ON
LA
NG
ELE
DG
RA
IN N
TS
2
MIL
FO
RD
HA
VE
N - S
OU
TH
HO
OK
HO
LF
OR
D
HO
LE
HO
US
E F
AR
MA
LD
BR
OU
GH
TO
TA
L S
UP
PLY
