Cement and Clinker Price

Markers: Med Basin, Persian

Gulf-Arabian Sea and East

Africa

World green petcoke market

demand forecast (Part 1)

Webinar presentation

CW Group LLC | T: +1-702-866-9474 | F: +1-928-832-4762 | Connecticut, USA

January 12, 2017

Client Confidential Information

Presenters

2

Raluca CercelSenior Analyst

rc@cwgrp.com

M:+351 913366980

Senior analyst with CW Group’s European team,

responsible for various on-going research activities in the

building materials and heavy industrial sectors

Focuses on qualitative and quantitative analysis including

the company’s cement sector, global market price

assessments and market intelligence activity.

Client Confidential Information

Agenda

Introduction to CW Group

World Green Petcoke Market Demand Forecast

− Methodology and Scope

− Demand drivers: End users and calcination

− Petcoke trade: Importers and exporters

− Petcoke pricing: FOB mmBTU comparison to coal (Richards’ Bay)

Closing remarks

3

Client Confidential Information

4

About the CW Group

CEMENT, BUILDING

MATERIALS &

CONSTRUCTION

STEEL, METALS &

MINING

CHEMICALS DRY BULK CARGO,

PORTS AND

INFRASTRUCTURE

POWER, ENERGY

AND SOLID FUELS

Seasoned expertsBusiness &

technicalNetwork & access Proprietary data

STRATEGY AND M&A

ADVISORYBUSINESS DECISION

SUPPORTMEDIA & MEETINGS

Strategic advisory

Management consulting

M&A advice

Transaction support

Due diligence

Syndicated market /

industry study reports

Reference forecasts

Data and chart-books

Commodity price

assessments

Market reporting services

Newsletters

Online data access

Publications

Meetings

Advisory Research Media

Client Confidential Information

5

World green petcoke market demand

forecast (Part 1)

Client Confidential Information

Report overview: World green petcoke market demand forecast

6

MAIN CONTENT

Global green petcoke production by market

Petcoke capacity by refinery

End-user segment consumption segmentation

(historic and outlook)

Global consumption and regional shares (historic

and outlook)

Marketable and in-house petcoke consumption

Supply chain

Petcoke trade: main exporters and importers; role of

trade, and associated logistics

Petcoke pricing: current and future, as well as

mmBTU comparison to coal

Country profiles

Company profiles: refiners and marketers

For more details visit: http://www.cwgrp.com/research/research-

products/product/111-global-quicklime,-slaked-lime-and-hydraulic-lime-market-

report-forecast-to-2021

2010 –

2021F

January 2017

World Green Petcoke Market

Demand Forecast

2017 Update

CW Group LLCPO Box 5263,

Greenwich,

CT 06831, USA

T: +1-702-866-9474

F: +1-928-832-4762

research.cwgrp.com

Client Confidential Information

Our industry support doesn’t end with the report – our advisory team

works with clients to develop strategies, investment assessments etc

In-depth analysis of historical and future petcoke market size in

tonnage and USD at the global, regional and country level

This report is a starting point of discussion, CW Advisory helps

formulate bets strategies, details customer understanding and

segments once you have the report foundations understood

We have worked with leading refineries and petcoke end-users

companies in developing market entry strategies, forecasts,

feasibility studies, M&A support, due diligence, strategic

advisory, management consulting, operations consulting

– Learn more about CW Advisory’s consulting experiences

and capabilities at http://www.cwgrp.com/advisory/

7

CW Research

(the report)

CW Advisory

(developing

strategies,

investments

etc.)

Client Confidential Information

The report was developed through…

Primary research: extensive interviews with key industry

stakeholders in main markets, companies and

associations

Secondary research: bottom-up and top-down approach

The report builds on the CW Group’s industry-leading

and proprietary databases and extensive market

intelligence platform

8

Client Confidential Information

Model map relies on a bottom-up approach and on primary

interviews

9

End-user segments historical

production

Petcoke usage per ton of

commodity (for green petcoke used

as fuel and calcination)

Cement

Electricity

Aluminum

Steel

OtherHistorical petcoke

consumption by

end-user segment

Petcoke

consumption

outlook by end-user

segment

End-user

segments outlook

Primary interviews

and secondary

research

Petcoke pricing

Petcoke

production and

capacities

Global, regional and

country-wise market size

of petcoke industry

Other

Green

petcoke

Calcined

petcoke

Client Confidential Information

All end-users of green petcoke to see diverging future trends

10

CAGR of end-user segments 2016E to 2021F

Steel Aluminum Electricity Cement

China

Asia ex-China

Europe & CIS

Americas

Africa

Middle East

CAGR 2016-2021

High Medium Low

Storage6%

Aluminium and Other

Metals35%Cement

26%

Power18%

Other Industry

15%

Usage of petcoke across end-usersC

hile

Ja

pa

n

Bo

livia

Can

ad

a

So

uth

Afric

a

Arg

en

tina

US

Ukra

ine

Ind

ia

Po

rtuga

l

Sp

ain

Mo

rocco

Me

xic

o

Bra

zil

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Share of petcoke in fuel mix in cement industry (2016E, %)

Client Confidential Information

More than 40% of green petcoke production is traded

11

Global green petcoke production and exports (Mt, 2010-2016E)

Global green petcoke exports increased by a CAGR of 6.1% from 2010 to 2016, while production increased

by 3.6%

Green petcoke exports are expected to reach its highest volume peak in 2016

YoY %

Prod7.7% 5.0% 3.3% -1.4% 2.7% 4.4%

YoY %

Exp11.3% 3.4% 13.2% -23.6% 35.0% 4.4%

0.0

50.0

100.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E

Domestic Exports

38.6%

39.9% 39.3% 43.1% 33.9%44.5% 46.5%

Client Confidential Information

Most of the traded petcoke is sourced from the US

12

Export main routes

US

China7.6Mt

Mexico

South

America

Canada

Med Basin

Asia Pacific

Africa

Europe

Central

America

Middle East

Venezuela

0.8

Mt

Spain

32.7Mt

3.4Mt

2.8Mt

0.9Mt

0.8Mt

0.1

Mt

2010 volumes

Client Confidential Information

…but the top ten exporters of the commodity represent ~96% of total

trade

13

Top ten percent exporters and total share (Mt, 2010-2016E)

Top ten exporters volumes and shares (2016E) The top 10 exporters represent 95.7% of the

global exports in 2015 and 97.2% in 2016E.

In 2010, this figure was 94.5%

US is the main exporter of green petcoke with

a total share of 81.2% of the global exports

Between 2010 and 2016, Spain volumes are

expected to expand at a CAGR of 40.1% to

reach 2.4Mt and assume the second largest

exporters of the product by the end of the

year

10

30

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E

US Venezuela Spain China Canada India Taiwan Germany Indonesia Netherlands Other

US81%

Spain5%

Venezuela3%Others

3%

Canada2%

China2%

Taiwan1%Germany

1%

India1%

Indonesia1%Netherlands

0%

Client Confidential Information

Export highlight: US

14

US main export terminals are located on the Gulf

Coast, targeting mainly India, Turkey and Brazil

US exports are expected to increase in 2015 on

stronger demand from India

US Gulf Coast exports low sulfur petcoke (4%-%5.5%

sulfur petcoke)

Main US green petcoke export terminals and destinations (Mt, 2015)

Philadelphia, PA

New York, NY

Norfolk, VA

Baltimore, MD

6.7

v

8.82.0

4.4

7.4

1.6 US

Client Confidential Information

The top ten importers make for ~80% of total trade

15

Top ten importers (2010-2016E)

10

30

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E

India China Japan Turkey Brazil Mexico Spain Canada Italy Morocco Others

India31%

Others13%

Turkey11%

China10%

Japan9%

Mexico7%

Spain5%

Canada4%

Brazil4%

Morocco3%

Italy3%

Top ten importers volumes and shares (2016E) The top 10 importers represent 76.6% of the global

exports in 2015 and 86.8% in 2016E. In 2010, this figure

was 77.0%

India is the main importer of green petcoke with a total

share of 30.8% of the global exports in 2016E. Between

2010 and 2016, India is expected to be the country with

the largest percent change, with volumes expected to

expand at a CAGR of 56.0% by the end of 2016

Turkey is expected to become the second largest petcoke

importers in 2016E with volumes reaching 5.0Mt

Client Confidential Information

The emergence of India as a top importer

16

India imported 7.8 Mt of green petcoke in 2015

Main exporter of petcoke to India is US with a total

share of 60% of the import volumes.

Saudi Arabia has been improving is presence in

the Indian market, and in 2015 it was the second

largest exporter of green petcoke to India

India import main source and volumes and the largest import port (mn tons, 2015)

Consumption of green petcoke by end-user (2016YTD)

India

Cement production

72.2%

Petcoke production

& supply

12.9%

Steel

6.6%

Textile

3.3%

Aluminum

1.6%

Others

3.4%

Client Confidential Information

… can easily be explained by petcoke’s price premium over coal

17Source: CW Researchh

$2.5

Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16

Richards Bay coal 5,500 kcal/kg NAR >5% petcoke <5% petcoke

Coal to petcoke comparison: India West Coast (US$/mmBTU)

PetcokeSteam/ Thermal

CoalLignite Alternative Fuels

Cons for

End-users

Availability

Potential impact of

petcoke includes air

quality hazards, water

quality hazards, and

potential exposure to

toxic substances

Thermal pollution from

coal creates heavy

environmental impact

Extraction and

combustion of lignite

creates environmental

and health related

issues

Cons over alternative

fuel is lesser compare

to other fuels. There

are minimal effect

occurs over

environment and

wildlife

Moderate availabilityAvailable in most of

the power plantsMany industries are

generating and

implementing

Dependent on oil

refining and coking

About CW ResearchCW Research is a leader in syndicated and data-driven market research solutions. The company offers independent

perspectives on multiple industrial market segments(e.g., cement, metals & minerals, and specialty chemicals) and

deep functional expertise in market intelligence, sourcing intelligence, commodity pricing intelligence.

CW Research also provides custom industry and competitive research programs for operating companies, financial

analysts, consultants, governments, suppliers and many others as well as tailored studies together with CW Advisory.

For more information: research.cwgrp.com.

About CW Group The Greenwich (Conn.), USA headquartered CW Group is the leading advisory, research and business intelligence

boutique aligned along three pillars: Advisory, Research and Media.

CW Advisory supports senior management in addressing their most challenging strategic, financial and operational

issues as well as providing M&A advice. CW Research provides value added industry reports, multi-client studies and

business research services. The Media pillar is based on rigorous and up-to-date information and data management,

providing market updates to our clients in a self-service format through our industry portals as well as industry

meetings.

The CW Group, with a presence in the US, Brazil, India, Portugal and Romania, has a multi-industry orientation, with

particularly recognized sector expertise in up-stream building materials (cement, lime), downstream building materials

(aggregates, ready-mix, cementitious - fly ash, slag), power and energy, steel, minerals & mining, agriculture and

commodities, paper & pulp, ports, logistics & transportation. www.cwgrp.com

CW Group LLCPO Box 5263, Greenwich,

CT 06831 USA

T: +1-702-866-9474

F: +1-928-832-4762

www.cwgrp.com