Cement and Clinker Price

Markers: Med Basin, Persian

Gulf-Arabian Sea and East

Africa

2Q2020 Global Cement Trade

Price Report

Webinar presentation

CW Group LLC | T: +1-702-866-9474 | F: +1-928-832-4762 | Connecticut, USA

June 18, 2020

Presenters

2

Carolina PereiraManager, Research &

Advisory

cp@cwgrp.com

M:+351 917 314 391

▪ Responsible for the qualitative and quantitative analysis for CW

Research's price and volume assessments in the building

material and heavy industrial sectors. Leads the Porto office

▪ Degree in Management from Coimbra Business School, Portugal

Juliana VieiraBusiness Analyst

jv@cwgrp.com

M:+351 918 285 753

▪ Executes quantitative analysis for CW Research's price and

volume assessments in the building material and heavy industrial

sectors. Experience in Cement industry.

▪ Degree in International Relations from ESPM, Rio de Janeiro,

Brazil

Agenda

▪ Introduction to CW Group

▪ GCTPR 2Q2020 highlights

− GCTPR overview and methodology

− Context snapshot: Worldwide cement demand

− gray cement exports: pricing trend and outlook

− Ex-works pricing

− Closing remarks

3

4

About the CW Group

CEMENT, BUILDING

MATERIALS &

CONSTRUCTION

STEEL, METALS &

MINING

CHEMICALS DRY BULK CARGO,

PORTS AND

INFRASTRUCTURE

POWER, ENERGY

AND SOLID FUELS

Seasoned expertsBusiness &

technicalNetwork & access Proprietary data

STRATEGY AND M&A

ADVISORYBUSINESS DECISION

SUPPORTMEDIA & MEETINGS

Strategic advisory

Management consulting

M&A advice

Transaction support

Due diligence

Syndicated market /

industry study reports

Reference forecasts

Data and chart-books

Commodity price

assessments

Market reporting services

Newsletters

Online data access

Publications

Meetings

Advisory Research Media

Client Confidential Information

5

GCTPR: 2Q2020 update highlights

What does it include

6

▪ Quarterly reports (annual subscription) with qualitative

analysis on volumes, prices and trends in global markets

▪ Benchmark report that provides detailed insights on:

– gray cement, white cement, clinker and granulated slag prices

(US$/ton)

– Import and export prices and outlook

– Regional price indices

– Monthly trade volumes (tonnages)

– Ex-works and retail level pricing (US$/ton)

▪ Market information for key markets around the world

– 70+ countries covered for trading data

– Monthly prices provided at country, regional and global level

▪ Quarterly updates (annual subscription)

- statistical model updated every 2Q and 4Q of the report

- data in Excel (optional)

For a complete listing of focus countries as well as more details visit:

http://www.cwgrp.com/research/research-products/industries/cement-building-

materials/product/1-global-cement-trade-price-report

GCTPR: Country coverage

7

Trade, ex-works, retail

Trade, ex-works

Trade, retail

Trade

Ex-works, retail

Ex-works

Retail

Client Confidential Information

8

Macroeconomic overview

-6.1%

-9.1%

-6.1%

0.5%

-4.7%

-7.2%

-4.2%-2.7% -2.8%

-5.2%

4.0% 4.5%2.5%

6.6%

3.6% 2.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.1%4.2%

US EU Area Japan East Asia &Pacific

EU &Central

Asia

LATAM &Caribbean

MENA S Asia SSA World

2020F 2021F

Source: World Bank, CW Research

The economic outlook is as grim as grim gets

Global Economic Outlook 2020 (% GDP)

▪ In the latest World Bank global economic update earlier this month, the World Bank estimates that

its baseline scenario is of a global 5.2 percent contraction

▪ Only China, the world’s second largest economy is expected to show growth of just 1.0 percent

Client Confidential Information

10

GCTPR: Domestic prices

With the continuing fallout of COVID-19, ex-works prices are expected

to decline in almost all regions in the second quarter of the year

11

Cement ex-works price variation 2Q2020 v. 1Q2020 (QoQ change, USD/t price)

-2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0%

North and Central America

Mediterranean Basin

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East

E Europe and CIS

Asia Pacific + China

South Asia

South America

Western Europe

12

+15%

YoY % change

in USD/t

-15%

Ex-works prices marked by wide regional variation in the first quarter

of 2020

Cement ex-works price variation 1Q2020 and 1Q2019 (YoY change, USD/t price)

Slowdown of Brazilian

construction sector

Favorable weather

conditions in US

Deacceleration

of Costa Rica

construction

works

Algerian

oversupply

added to lower

demand due to

COVID-19

Russian collapse of oil prices due to

a price war with Saudi Arabia

UK slow reopening of

construction sites

Delay in Indian

construction

activity

Indonesia’s

reduction in

production cost

Client Confidential Information

13

GCTPR: Trade pricing

Despite Brazil emerging as COVID-19 hotspot, the cement sector

has remained largely unscathed so far

14

Cement demand in selected markets (% YTD growth)

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

Saudi Arabia

Poland

Mexico

Brazil

Japan

Indonesia

Morocco

Spain

Argentina

Peru

Mar April May

Turkey0.4

Ireland0.2

Spain0.1

South Africa0.1

White

Turkey4.6

Thailand2.4

Japan1.3

Vietnam1.2

Clinker

In 1Q2020, the regions that reported the biggest export volumes

were Asia-Pacific and Mediterranean Basin

15

Largest traders by volume (mn tons - % represents share of global volume traded during quarter)

Represents

36%

Represents

55%

Represents

59%

Represents

69%

Turkey3.0

Japan1.5

Thailand1.0

China1.0

Grey

Japan3.0

India0.7

Germany0.5

Malaysia0.4

Slag

▪ gray cement prices are

expected to increase

0.3 percent when

compared to 1Q2020

16

▪ Clinker prices are

expected to increase 1

percent when

compared to 1Q2020

Despite COVID-19, cement and clinker prices have exhibited relative

stability over the last few months

Global clinker cement price index (USD/ ton)

Global gray cement price index (USD/ ton)

0

1,0 00

2,0 00

3,0 00

4,0 00

5,0 00

6,0 00

7,0 00

Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20

20 .0

25 .0

30 .0

35 .0

40 .0

45 .0

50 .0

55 .0

60 .0

65 .0Volume Average Price

0.0

10 .0

20 .0

30 .0

40 .0

50 .0

0

1,0 00

2,0 00

3,0 00

4,0 00

5,0 00

6,0 00

7,0 00

Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20

Volume Average Price

At a global level, the second quarter 2020 despite some variation in

FOB prices remains relative stable

17

Middle East

Regional gray cement FOB price change (QoQ percent change – 3Q2020 vs 2Q2020)

1%

2%

North America

& Caribbean

1%

Eastern Europe

& CIS

0%Mediterranean

Basin

0%

Scandinavia &

Baltics

1%Asia Pacific

Japan

-1%

Western Europe

-2%

Sub Saharan

Africa

0%

South

America

0%

China

GCTPR 2Q2020 update: Closing remarks

▪ Turkey remained the largest exporter of gray and white

cement and clinker while Japan takes the lead for slag

▪ In the 2Q2020, on a yearly basis, ex-works prices

showed wide regional variations, when looking at the

price decline in Eastern Europe & CIS and increase in

North America

▪ Despite COVID-19, cement and clinker prices have

exhibited relative stability over the last few months

▪ Gray cement FOB prices are expected to see small

variations across regions until the 3Q2020

18

About CW ResearchCW Research is a leader in syndicated and data-driven market research solutions. The company offers independent

perspectives on multiple industrial market segments(e.g., cement, metals & minerals, and specialty chemicals) and

deep functional expertise in market intelligence, sourcing intelligence, commodity pricing intelligence.

CW Research also provides custom industry and competitive research programs for operating companies, financial

analysts, consultants, governments, suppliers and many others as well as tailored studies together with CW Advisory.

For more information: research.cwgrp.com.

Contacts

CW Group LLCPO Box 5263, Greenwich,

CT 06831 USA

T: +1-702-866-9474

F: +1-928-832-4762

www.cwgrp.com

Carolina Pereira

Manager, Advisory &

Research

cp@cwgrp.com

Juliana Vieira

Business Analyst

jv@cwgrp.com

Liviu Dinu

Market Services &

Marketing Consultant

ld@cwgrp.com