nucleus.iaea.org · Web viewFigure 1. The Nuclear Power Programme page for running the NPHR...

User Guide for the Nuclear Power Human Resources (NPHR) Model

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Table of ContentsList of Figures...........................................................................................................................................4

List of Tables............................................................................................................................................5

1. Introduction.........................................................................................................................................6

1.1 Background of the NPHR Model..................................................................................................9

1.2 Files and Installation....................................................................................................................9

2. Demonstration of the NPHR Model...................................................................................................10

2.1 Starting the Software.................................................................................................................11

2.2 Running the Model....................................................................................................................12

2.3 Nuclear Power Programme........................................................................................................13

2.4 Workforce..................................................................................................................................15

2.5 Data management.....................................................................................................................18

2.6 Importing a data file..................................................................................................................18

2.7 Exiting and Saving......................................................................................................................18

3 Understanding and using the NPHR Model.......................................................................................19

3.1 Technical Overview....................................................................................................................19

3.2 Introduction to technical sections............................................................................................20

3.3 Lifecycle of a Nuclear Power Programme..................................................................................26

3.4 A Model of Electrical Generating Capacity.................................................................................39

3.5 NPHR Workforce Calculations....................................................................................................45

3.6 Nuclear Workforce Model.........................................................................................................49

3.7 Regulatory Body.........................................................................................................................59

3.8 Skilled Craft Workforce..............................................................................................................63

3.9 Educational System....................................................................................................................68

3.10 Workforce Model Supporting Calculations...............................................................................72

Appendix I: References.........................................................................................................................84

Appendix II: Glossary.........................................................................................................................85

Appendix III: Nuclear Power Plant Operations Staffing.......................................................................88

Appendix IV: Copyright notice for the NPHR model............................................................................98

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List of Figures

Figure 1. The Nuclear Power Programme page for running the NPHR model...........................................12Figure 2. Graph reflecting the reactor life cycle.........................................................................................14Figure 3. The workforce page in the NPHR Model.....................................................................................15Figure 4. The Training and Education page of the NPHR model................................................................17Figure 5. Screenshot of the interface page of the NPHR model showing the model interface, modeling tools (tool bar at top of interface), and tabs for navigation (left)..............................................................21Figure 6. Screen shot showing the Reactors module.................................................................................22Figure 7. A section of the model showing all detail and connections (top) and details and surrounding parts of the model may be left out of figures to focus the discussion (bottom)........................................23Figure 8. Lifecycle of a Nuclear Power Programme (See Reference 1)......................................................27Figure 9. Model representation of phase 1 for planning a nuclear power programme.............................30Figure 10. The NPP lifecycle as represented in the NPHR model...............................................................31Figure 11. Model for demand for new NPP...............................................................................................32Figure 12. Licensing through construction phases.....................................................................................33Figure 13. The operational phase of the NPP lifecycle..............................................................................34Figure 14. Details of the Reactor Constructions Wanted stock.................................................................35Figure 15. The model for nuclear power generating capacity...................................................................40Figure 16. The calculation of demand for new generating capacity from nuclear power..........................41Figure 17. Capacity moves from anticipated to ordered to installed.........................................................42Figure 18. The model for installed nuclear generating capacity................................................................43Figure 19. Structure of the NPP workforce................................................................................................46Figure 20. Conceptual model for NPP workforce showing engineering staff.............................................49Figure 21. Model of the nuclear workforce for professional skill level......................................................50Figure 22. Release of nuclear workforce to pools of engineers.................................................................51Figure 23. Retirement and attrition of the Nuclear Workforce.................................................................52Figure 24. The model for the technician nuclear workforce......................................................................53Figure 25. The initial workforce calculation...............................................................................................54Figure 26. Grouping of 43 work functions into 7 process areas. See Reference 3.....................................56Figure 27. The model of the regulatory body............................................................................................59Figure 28. The model for skilled craft labor...............................................................................................64Figure 29. The model for craft labor for NPP construction........................................................................65Figure 30. Craft labor is retained at the NPP as operating staff.................................................................66Figure 31. Retirement of craft labor working in plant operations.............................................................66Figure 32. Loss of workers from the craft labor pool due to retirement and attrition...............................67Figure 33. The model of the educational system.......................................................................................69Figure 34. Three curves for staffing prior to plant start up. Note IAEA and Goodnight data include total plant staff, while NPI data are for technician and professional tracks only...............................................72

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Figure 35. Calculation of staffing during NPP licensing and construction..................................................73Figure 36. Calculation of outsourcing fractions for operating workforce..................................................75Figure 37. Typical workforce age distribution............................................................................................78Figure 38. The workforce age progression calculation..............................................................................79Figure 39. Flows of workers in the age calculation mirror the flows in the workforce model...................80Figure 40. Flows for moving workers between age intervals and for attrition are connected to Workforce Pool Age....................................................................................................................................................81Figure 41. Model of specialized training in the nuclear workforce............................................................82

List of TablesTable 1. Description of the lifecycle phases of a nuclear power programme............................................28Table 2. Sample table used to verify that the NPP lifecycle model is working properly............................36Table 3. An excerpt from the US Nuclear Plant spreadsheet. See the spreadsheet for complete data.....37Table 4. Verifying the electrical generating capacity model......................................................................44Table 5. NPP workforce by process area and job function........................................................................46Table 6. Skill area fractions for nuclear energy production workforce......................................................55Table 7. Staffing fractions by process area................................................................................................55Table 8. Distribution of degree by process area........................................................................................56Table 9. Degree area for technicians by process area...............................................................................57Table 10. Craft labor staffing fractions assumed for NPP operations........................................................57Table 11. Technical areas used in the regulatory body model with assumed staffing fractions................61Table 12. Staffing needs predicted by the regulatory body model............................................................62Table 13. Career paths from the High School Level Pool...........................................................................69Table 14. Outsourcing strategies as percent of total staff. See Reference 3. The data have been reordered from the original to group by process area..............................................................................76Table 15. Data for the workforce age calculation......................................................................................82

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1. IntroductionAn appropriate infrastructure is essential for the efficient, safe, reliable and sustainable use of nuclear power. The IAEA continues to be encouraged by its Member States to provide assistance to those considering the introduction of nuclear power. Its response has been to increase technical assistance, organize more missions and hold workshops, as well as to issue new and updated publications in the IAEA Nuclear Energy Series. Milestones in the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power, an IAEA Nuclear Energy Series publication (NG-G-3.1), provides detailed guidance on a holistic approach to national nuclear infrastructure development involving three phases. Nineteen issues are identified in this guide, ranging from development of a government’s national position on nuclear power to planning for procurement related to the first nuclear power plant. One of these 19 issues upon which each of the other 18 depend is suitable human resources development. As a growing number of Member States begin to consider the nuclear power option, they ask for guidance from the IAEA on how to develop the human resources necessary to launch a nuclear power programme. The nuclear power field, comprising industry, government authorities, regulators, R&D organizations and educational institutions, relies on a specialized, highly trained and motivated workforce for its sustainability and continued success, quite possibly more than any other industrial field.

This user guide and the NPHR Model that it describes have been prepared to provide information on the use of integrated workforce planning as a tool to effectively develop these resources for the spectrum of organizations that have a stake in such nuclear power programme. These include, during the initial stages, a nuclear energy programme implementing organization (NEPIO), as well as the future operating organization, nuclear regulatory body, government authorities and technical support organizations if a decision is made to initiate a nuclear power programme.

In the past, the development of human resources in the nuclear field has depended on considerable support from organizations in the country of origin of the technology. This is expected to continue to be the case in the future. However, there is also expected to be greater worldwide mobility of nuclear personnel in the future, making human resources management more demanding, particularly in ensuring that organizations in the nuclear field are attractive employers compared with other fields. These expectations suggest that development of suitable human resources to support the planned expansion of nuclear power will continue to require effective and continuing workforce planning in the context of an overall human resources development programme at the national and organizational levels.

The Nuclear Power Human Resources (NPHR) model is a tool developed for examining workforce planning for nuclear power programmes. The model is intended to take a comprehensive view to reflect all aspects of the nuclear power workforce, including the influence on that workforce by a country’s educational system and other industries, as well as events and decisions within the nuclear power programme. Of particular interest for new programmes are the workforce issues during initiation of a new nuclear power programme up to and including plant start up. The model is useful for examining the decision space facing programme planners by providing a long-range, holistic perspective of the nuclear

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power programme. The NPHR model provides a starting point for developers to construct a model reflecting their programme and the unique decisions facing it.

The nuclear power workforce includes construction workers, operations staff, and regulatory body staff. However, the nuclear power workforce is part of a larger national workforce which must be considered. The nuclear power workforce competes with related industry and academia for workers and the educational system provides trained workers for the nuclear workforce. The model thus reflects the influence of workforce issues outside the nuclear power programme itself.

Workforce issues also span the duration of the nuclear power programme, from the planning required prior to commitment to a nuclear power plant, through the detailed planning leading up to construction of a plant, operating one or more plants, and eventually closing a plant. The workforce changes in size and composition during these phases. The model reflects the dynamic nature of the workforce during all phases of a nuclear power programme. The NPHR model also considers the career paths of workers; they are educated, hired, change jobs, promoted, and eventually retire.

In workforce planning, decision makers face a large number of questions. Among these are how the plant will be staffed, including skill levels and outsourcing strategies. Timing for hiring is important, particularly during early phases of the programme. How can a programme maintain a highly-qualified staff for a multiple decade long programme? How do workers receive specialized training? Anticipating some of these questions, the NPHR model is configured to allow investigation of different strategies.

Many more questions can be asked, and models can be useful tools to help address them. The NPHR model is configured as a starting point for use in investigating the nuclear power workforce. The initial model contains a representation of the nuclear power programme including the early planning phases, the lifecycle of nuclear power plants, and power generating capacity. Coupled to this is a model of the workforce from education system, through multiple career paths, to retirement. Data is provided for a representative new programme and for an established programme. Controls built into the model represent some of the high-level decisions facing these programmes. To configure the model for a specific programme, new data files must be generated and imported. The model must be reviewed to ensure that the elements of the programme, such as the educational system and retirement assumptions, are represented adequately in the model, and modifications made as needed. Finally, the model developer must work closely with leadership to understand the issues of concern for the programme and develop ways of examining them in the model.

This document gives the technical details of the NPHR model as configured for use by the IAEA and member states. The purpose of this document is to provide a developer with enough familiarity with how the current model was constructed so that they can determine the required data, match the model to elements of their own programme, and know where to start modifying the model to address new questions. Some potential areas for development are suggested in the technical development sections.

This leads to the question: who is the right person to develop and use the NPHR model? The objective of the modeling effort is not to provide an answer, but instead to facilitate a dialog. Namely, programme managers and decision makers should be posing questions to the analysts, and analysts should be

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gaining an understanding of how the system works from the managers and decision makers. Through use and development of the model, the analysts will return not just the answer, but insights and potentially more questions. Success is not questions answered, but evolution of the dialog to new, more detailed questions over time. Thus, the appropriate person for developing and using the model is a person adept at data analysis and capable of learning systems dynamics methodology, but also involved with programme planners and decision makers on a regular basis to understand the issues and questions that arise, and in fact able to pose new questions to the programme leadership.

This document is intended for two audiences. For programme leadership, managers, and other decision makers, this document provides a description of a tool that can assist in evaluating the impact of planning decisions that may have ramifications years in the future. These should focus on Sections 1 and 2. For analysts and model developers, this document gives technical details of the model to give a starting point for developing the detailed analysis tool to support programme leadership, which are given in section 3. The following sections include the following:

Section 2 gives an overview of the NPHR models and its current capabilities. This section gives a step-by-step guide through running the current model and is a good starting point for those unfamiliar with the NPHR model.

Section 3 gives the technical details and guidance for understanding and use of the NPHR model. This section gives a description of key sections of the model, in some cases to individual calculations. This section also gives details of the data used in the current model. This section is geared toward model developers and others who need to know the details of the model in order to use and adapt it to reflect their national programme.

The model is based on the US nuclear power programme and has been validated against data for the US system. It is intended to be a starting point for representation of the systems for other countries. Adapting the model will involve modifying the data and in some instances changing the logic in the model. Any actions taken should involve a validation of the model with those changes. Suggested techniques for doing so are also described in Section 3.

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1.1 Background of the NPHR ModelThe NPHR model was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) in support of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) programme, with support from the US Department of Energy office of Nuclear Energy and the NNSA. Its original purpose was to represent the plans of developed nuclear power programmes as those programmes expanded. The model was later given expanded capabilities to also represent new nuclear programmes.

Through discussions with many potential users, it became apparent that the best way to support countries with new nuclear power programmes would be to share the model and allow users to adapt the model to their national programme.

NPHR Version 1.0 has been provided for use by the IAEA to share with member states. The desire of the IAEA is that individual member states adapt the model to their programme and share the methodology and findings with the user community. To enable this, the IAEA has developed this user guide, accompanying workshops to train users to adapt the model to their national programme, and established mechanisms to support sharing of lessons learned regarding modification and use of the model.

1.2 Files and InstallationThe NPHR model is developed in systems dynamics software called iThink. The model is provided by the IAEA, but the iThink software must be purchased separately from isee Systems (see www.iseesystems.com). Follow the software directions for installation. A trial version of iThink can be downloaded at no charge, but does not allow the user to save the model.

Accompanying this user guide is a CD containing the model and data files. The files provided are as follows:

In the NPHR folder

NPHR 1.0 – this is the main model file

Modules – this folder contains the modules that make up the NPHR model

In the Data Files folder

Workforce Data – a Microsoft Excel file containing data for the workforce part of the model

Nuclear Plant Data – a Microsoft Excel file containing data for the NPP part of the model

In the Input Files folder (Two copies of these four files may appear – a .xls version and a .csv version)

Workforce New Program – an excel file extracted from Workforce Data for a new programme

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Version Notice!

NPHR 1.0 was developed on iThink v9.1.4 using Windows 7 operating system and Office 2010. The descriptions in this document reflect this configuration. Check with the IAEA for help with any other configuration.

http://www.iseesystems.com/

Workforce Established Program - an excel file extracted from Workforce Data for an established programme

Nuclear Plant New Program - an excel file extracted from Nuclear Plant Data for a new programme

Nuclear Plant Established Program - an excel file extracted from Nuclear Plant Data for a new programme

The three folders, NPHR, Data Files, and Input Files, with their contents, should be copied to a location on a hard drive before use.

It is expected that the model will be modified and used to run multiple analysis cases. Good practices for managing the modeling effort are essential. A process for keeping track of progress should be put in place at the beginning of the modeling effort. Some suggestions to help with configuration control include:

Incorporate dates into file names of models (for example: NPHRV1.0 18Dec2011). When major modifications are made to the model, update the file name with a new date.

Save model and data files for specific cases in a new folder. For example, a folder named Analysis December 2011 should contain all files pertinent to the analysis done for a task performed in December of 2011. This should include model and data files to ensure a record of what was done.

Save the original model and data files in their original format.

These practices will help ensure that a record of progress with the model is maintained, and that, if necessary, the analyst can return to earlier versions.

2. Demonstration of the NPHR Model.This section provides a short demonstration of the NPHR model. This section is useful reading for those that are not familiar with the model. In this section, instructions are provided to run the model to demonstrate its capabilities. Details of each section in the demonstration are given in the technical details section.

For decision-makers: While running the demonstration, consider the decisions facing your programme. Modifying the model to reflect these questions should be the assignment to your developers as they work to customize the model to reflect your programme.

For developers: The NPHR interface is easily modified, and as the model is customized for specific uses the interface can be updated to show desired model results. Refer to the iThink user guide for details on working with interfaces.

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2.1 Starting the SoftwareInstall iThink following the instructions from isee systems.

Copy the folder (called NPHR Model) containing the NPHR model onto your computer. In the folder will be a file called NPHR 1.0 and a folder called modules. The NPHR model can be started by

Double-clicking the file NPHR 1.0 or

Start the iThink software. Select file, open, and navigate to the NPHR Model folder. Select NPHR 1.0 and select open.

The model should open in the interface view. If a set of graphs do not appear on the screen, select the interface tab on the left hand side. Scroll to the top of the page. The screen should look like Figure 1. If there are lines in the graphs, click on the button marked “Restore all Devices”.

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Figure 1. The Nuclear Power Programme page for running the NPHR model.

2.2 Running the ModelThe model interface contains controls for running the model and changing the model variables, as well as graphical charts for model output. The first page of the NPHR interface contains the Nuclear Power Programme page. At the center top of the page are two buttons for controlling the model, labeled Run and Reset all Devices. In the upper right corner is a navigation button labeled Next.

Click the Run button. This starts the model and lines appear in the graph panels. Note the progress indicator on the bottom left border.

Click the Restore all Devices button. This erases the graphs and resets all controls to their default position.

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The model is set to simulate 40 years of a nuclear power programme. This includes the preparation phases prior to building and operating the first NPP. This can be changed by selecting Run on the top menu bar and selecting Run Specs. See the iThink user manual for details.

Click the Next button. The interface jumps to the next page, showing the Workforce page. Click the Home or Back navigation control to return to the starting screen.

2.3 Nuclear Power ProgrammeOn the Nuclear Power Programme page there are six switches, two near the center of the screen arranged vertically, and four in a vertical column on the right of the screen. These are toggle switches that have two positions; unless otherwise indicated the up position indicates “yes” and the down position indicates “no”. The top center switch asks if the model is being run for a new nuclear power programme, while the four switches on the right each represent a decision about the future of the programme. These switches can be changed by clicking on the round end of the switch. We will investigate each of these controls as we run the model.

The remaining three controls on the Nuclear Power Programme page are sliding controls. These are labeled Growth Rate for Electrical Demand, Construction Time, and Total electric demand to be met by nuclear in 2030 (%). Sliding controls are used to adjust factors in the model. We will investigate these controls as we run the model.

Demand for ElectricityThe model is initially configured for a new nuclear power programme. Thus the switch labeled Is this a new programme? is in the up position, indicating “yes”. Click the Run button again and observe the graphs as the model runs. The label for the top left graph appears at the bottom of the graph and reads Total Electrical Demand. This graph shows the projected electrical demand for the country being modeled. In this example this demand starts at 100 GWhr (Giga-Watt Hours). The demand increases by 1% per year, as shown in the slider Growth Rate for Electrical Demand located directly above the graph. At the end of the model run the electrical demand is approximately 150 GWhr.

Adjust the Growth Rate for Electrical Demand to a higher value and click the Run button. The electrical demand graph is cleared and a new graph is generated. The electrical demand starts at the same value but has a larger value at the completion of the simulation. Note a button with a U appears in the slider control box. Clicking this U returns the slider to the default position.

Reactor LifecycleClick Restore all Devices and Run the model again. The graph on the lower right is labeled “Reactors in Life Cycle” and appears as shown in Figure 2. The graph shows the number of reactors in each stage of the reactor life cycle; blue for preparation prior to construction, orange for implementing the NPP (bidding, contracting, and construction), and pink for operating. Note the preparation phase does not start for five years after the beginning of the simulation. This is because the simulation is for a new programme and the initial five years is for the early planning activities leading to Milestone 1. Change

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Hint: Place the mouse over a graph and hold the select (left) button down. A dashed vertical line appears on the graph. Values for the curve at that line appear under the variable names across the top of the graph and under the x-axis label.

the switch labeled “Is this a new programme?” to no and run the model. Now phase 2 (preparation for construction)begins immediately.

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Figure 2. Graph reflecting the reactor life cycle.

Share of generating capacityClick Restore all Devices and run the model. In the Reactors in Life Cycle graph one reactor is built, as indicated by the value of the pink line at 40 years. The slider above this graph is labeled Total electric demand to be met by nuclear in 2030 (%). Adjust this slider to a value greater than eight and run the model. The Reactors in Life Cycle graph now shows additional plants being built by the end of the simulation.

The lower left graph is titled Electrical Generating Capacity from Nuclear, and shows the total installed generating capacity that is provided by nuclear power. This value jumps to just less than 1000 MW (the plant capacity factor is included) when the first plant comes on line.

Construction ExecutionClick Restore all Devices and run the model. In the Reactors in Life Cycle graph, note the timing of the plant life cycle phases. The first five years are the programme planning phase. The design and licensing phase follows and lasts for four years, after which the construction phase lasts an additional four years. Change the Construction time slider (center) and run the model. The construction phase now lasts longer and plant start up is delayed.

Additional ControlsThere are four switches aligned vertically on the right of the interface that have not been discussed in this demonstration. These are Build current license applications, Renew license of existing plants, Replace existing reactors, and Expand nuclear power. These switches reflect some of the decisions facing an existing nuclear power programme and are not immediately pertinent to a new programme.

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Later, the data file for an existing NP programme will be imported and the effects of the switches can be investigated.

2.4 WorkforceClick Restore all Devices then click the Next button on the upper right. The interface now shows a new page labeled Workforce, shown in Figure 3. The controls and graphs on this page relate to segments of the workforce; NEPIO and Regulatory Workforce are shown in the top left graph and Construction and Operations Workforce are shown in the lower left graph. Outsourcing controls are on the right along with a graph of Hiring Rate. Three slider controls appear across the middle of the page for adjusting the operating staff size, construction workforce, and outsourcing fraction.

Figure 3. The workforce page in the NPHR Model.

NEPIO and Regulatory BodyClick the Run button at the top of this page. In the top left graph, the NEPIO workforce (blue curve) is shown to staff up over the first four years then decrease. The preparatory regulatory body functions are assumed in the model to be part of the NEPIO initially and the staff is transferred to the Regulatory Body during Phase 2. The regulatory body resource requirements peak during Phase 3 (construction). During

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the Operations Phase, the regulatory body resource requirements decrease, and the model adjusts the regulatory staffing to a level appropriate for oversight.

Additional graphs can be added to display specific metrics for the workforce. These can be changed based on the topics of interest to decision makers.

Construction and Operations WorkforceThe Construction and Operations Workforce graph shows the construction workforce in purple and the operating workforce in green. The construction workforce ramps up quickly at the start of construction, and ramps down again rapidly when construction is complete. Change the Construction workforce size to a larger value. Run the model and observe the differences in the construction staffing curve.

The operating workforce ramps up gradually through the early phases reaching full staffing at the time of plant start. Above this graph is a slider control labeled Operation Staff Size – Percent of Nominal. This slider is to investigate decisions for operating the plant; does the plant operator want a small, cost-effective staff or a larger staff to build a larger trained and experienced workforce?

Outsourcing StrategyOn the center of the Workforce page are five selection buttons, each corresponding to an outsourcing strategy. One of the selection buttons will be green, indicating that is the strategy currently selected in the model. The selections are Standard, Aggressive, Euro 1, Euro 2, and None. These strategies have different fractions of job functions staffed via contracting as opposed to employment by the operator. The fractions for each strategy discussed in the technical details chapter. The second decision with outsourcing is where the contractor is drawing its staff. The slider labeled Fraction of outsourced workers coming from foreign workforce adjusts the fraction of the outsourced labor that comes from the foreign workforce and can be varied from zero (all domestic) to 100 percent foreign. If the contractor gets its staff domestically, then it is drawing from the same national labor pool that the operator draws from. In this case, the operator and contracting staff all come through the same national educational system. If the outsourced workforce comes from foreign sources, then the demand for students entering the educational system is reduced.

Training and EducationClick on the next button on the lower right. The final page on the interface focuses on Training and Education, and is shown in Figure 4.The graph on the left shows the workforce receiving specialized training, while the graph on the right shows the number of students entering four year degree programmes potentially leading to careers in the nuclear industry. These topics are examples of how the model can investigate different aspects of the workforce and additional topics can be added.

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Figure 4. The Training and Education page of the NPHR model.

Specialized Training Click on the button Reset All Devices and run the model. The graph on the left shows two curves, one for the number of workers with jobs which involve activities related to an area of specialization (for example, safeguards). This number is the demand for training, and the assumptions for specializations of interest are defined in the input data file. The second curve shows the number of workers that have received training for that area of specialization. The slider Number of Workers that can be sent each year to specialized training adjusts the opportunity for workers to be sent to specialized training. This control is initially set to one worker going to training each year, and the trained workforce curve does not meet the demand curve. Adjust the slider to a higher number and re-run the model to see if the training supply can meet the demand.

EducationThe graph on the right shows the number of freshmen entering university programmes in engineering. The slider labeled Engineering programme dropout rate adjusts the attrition rate of these students during their degree programme. It can be adjusted from zero to 50 percent. The number of students

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Files saved in some versions of Excel do not import correctly. If problems are encountered, saving the file as a comma separated variable (.csv) format can create a file that can be imported.

that must be recruited into degree programmes depends on the assumption about their success rate in completing their education.

2.5 Data management The example discussed in above is for a new programme. The simulation includes many assumptions about the country it represents and the nuclear power programme. These assumptions are embodied in the data that populate the variables in the model. These data can be managed in external files (generated in excel) and imported into the model. A good practice is to use external files to manage the data for specific cases. This provides an easy way to restore an analysis case and to identify exactly which data were used for an analysis. In order to demonstrate how this is done, the model will be reconfigured for an established programme. Details on the input files are discussed in the technical details chapter.

2.6 Importing a data fileClick the Home and Reset All Devices buttons. In the menu bar at the top of the iThink window, select Menu and Import Data. In the dialog window, under Import Type select One Time and under Data Orientation select the right hand choice (data organized in columns). Click on the Browse button and open the Input Files folder. Select the file Reactor Data US and click OK. When the Import Files dialog box reappears, select Ok. A message window will appear indicating successful import. Repeat the import process, this time importing the file US Workforce.

Run the model. The graphs will now show results for an established nuclear power programme. Explore the effect on the programme of the various controls in the model, particularly the set of switches on the Nuclear Power Programme page.

2.7 Exiting and SavingWhen exiting iThink, the programme will display a prompt for saving the model. If the model is saved, it will retain the data last loaded into the model and the results of the last run. If the model is not saved, it will retain the original data set. It is best to preserve the original version of the NPHR model and work with a copy of the NPHR model files. To do this, from the Menu bar select File and Save As. In the dialog box, navigate to a new folder and press save. This will create in the new folder a copy of NPHR 1.0 and the folder Modules.

Refer to Section 1.1 for good practices on configuration management.

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3 Understanding and using the NPHR Model

3.1 Technical OverviewThis section covers the methodology used in the NPHR model, some tools for this style of modeling, and gives some references for further reading.

Systems Dynamics The NPHR model is constructed in a systems dynamics modeling environment using the commercial tool iThink, a product of isee Systems, inc. The systems dynamics approach was chosen as it provides great flexibility in modeling, particularly allowing the inclusion of external factors that influence the system. Other tools are available, and equivalent models could be developed using any of a number of products available commercially. The software used for the NPHR model is simple to learn and use, and therefore allows the model to be accessed by a wide range of users and developers.

The systems dynamics methodology centers on representing the model or process as a system of stocks (collections) and flows (quantities moving between collections). By establishing the flow rates, the model becomes a system of differential equations that are solved during the simulation. The model can be simple or can become very complex through the addition of highly interconnected logic.

ToolsSeveral tools are available that could be used for modeling a nuclear power programme. iThink was chosen for the reasons mentioned above. Other modeling tools may have advantages or disadvantages over iThink. A few for consideration are as follows.

Process simulation tools, such as extendsim by Imagine That Inc. (www.extendsim.com), provide a rigorous simulation environment that can handle highly detailed models.

Agent-based simulations or tools with combined methodology, such as AnyLogic by xj technologies Inc. (www.xjtek.com), also provide a powerful modeling environment with excellent flexibility by providing multiple methods that can be used in the same model.

The prime consideration for selection of a tool should be the intended purpose of the modeling effort. For evaluating the design of an engineered system or process, a detailed model may be desired. The primary purpose of the NPHR model, however, is to evaluate the nuclear power programme and investigate the potential results of various decisions. Thus, the ability to easily explain the model and its results is more important than the detail of the model.

Resources for Systems Dynamics MethodologyFor more information on systems dynamics methodology,

An introduction to Systems Thinking, isee Systems, www.iseesystems.com.

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http://www.iseesystems.com/

http://www.xjtek.com/

http://www.extendsim.com/

Systems Thinking, Managing Chaos and Complexity: A Platform for Designing Business Architecture, Jamshid Gharajedaghi. Butterworth-Heinemann, 2006.

3.2 Introduction to technical sectionsThis section discusses some of the technical details of the NPHR model, and is intended for the developer who wishes to understand the model in order to modify and adapt it to their country’s programme. Not all details of the model are shown. Rather, the logic and calculations of the key technical challenges in building the model are given. Less complicated calculations, such as a summation of variables to give a total that is to be used as graphical output, are assumed to be easily understood by developers and are thus not described in this user guide.

The model development to date has focused on some key technical issues, which are described in the following sections. There are many additional features of a nuclear power programme that are left out of the model (e.g. waste management, fuel fabrication, etc.). The intent of this user guide is to give the user a starting place for continued development of the model to represent their programme to the level of detail they require.

The sections below are organized as follows.

Orientation for navigating around the model and conventions used in the user guide

Nuclear power programme lifecycle model description

Power generation model description

Workforce model and calculations description

Each technical section gives an introduction to the topical area, a description of how that area is described in the model, how the model is tested, and a discussion of the data required. In addition, topics for additional refinement of the model are provided to help stimulate thinking about how well the model represents the details of a nuclear power programme that are important to decision makers.

Orientation to the modelThe iThink software should be installed and the model copied to a folder on the computer, as described in installation, above.

In the model folder, open the file NPHR 1.0. The iThink software will start and the model will open in a window that looks like Figure 1, showing the interface page of the model. Across the top of the window is the menu bar with options for File, Edit, View, Interface, Run, and Help. Below the menu bar is a tool bar with icons that are used in the model. Arranged vertically on the left hand side are tabs for Equation, Model, Map, and Interface. The view shown in Figure 5 is the model interface. The interface tab allows the developer to assemble a graphical user interface (GUI) for users of the model. On the interface there can be various controls for the model and output such as graphs and tables. The interface view is used to assemble modeling results that can be used for demonstrations and analysis, such as the example in the section of this document called Demonstration.

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Figure 5. Screenshot of the interface page of the NPHR model showing the model interface, modeling tools (tool bar at top of interface), and tabs for navigation (left).

The Map tab is used early in model development for building an outline of what will later be populated with calculations in the Model tab. The Equation tab shows the code generated as the model is built. The Map tab and Equation tab are not used for the rest of this discussion. The Model tab is a graphical user interface that is used for model development, and thus is the focus of the rest of this discussion. Selecting the Model tab gives a screen showing two boxes connected by red lines. The boxes are modules, each containing part of the model. The Reactors module contains the model of the nuclear power programme lifecycle and the power generation model. The Workforce module contains the model of the nuclear workforce and related calculations. The red connectors indicate that data is shared between the models.

Double click on the Reactors module. A screen like the one shown in Figure 6 appears, showing detail of the lifecycle of the nuclear power programme. Across the top of the screen are calculations related to reactor fuel supply. In the middle is the model representing the progression of a nuclear power programme and NPP lifecycle. On the bottom is a model of power generation capacity. These will each be discussed in detail below. Note that the Interface tab no longer appears on the left side. Instead, an

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up-arrow and a “home” icon appear. The up-arrow navigates to the next higher module. The home icon navigates to the screen that first appeared when you navigated to the Model tab.

Note: Your screen may look slightly different depending on window size, scrolling, and zoom factor. To adjust the zoom, select options under View on the menu bar.

Figure 6. Screen shot showing the Reactors module.

Conventions used in this guideThis section defines some of the terms and styles that are used throughout this document. It is intended to give enough definition to allow a reader to make some critical distinctions in the document, but not intended to be comprehensive. For a comprehensive definition of all terms and conventions that may be encountered the reader is directed to the iThink user’s documentation.

It is useful to review some basic terminology and conventions used in this guide.

Figures In the discussions that follow, segments of models are shown. The figures often do not always show all the detail of the model. This is illustrated in Figure 7, where the first image is how the model appears,

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Names of objects in the model when referenced in this document will be italicized to distinguish them from other text.

while the second image is the part of the model discussed in the text. The elements of the model not shown may be discussed in a different section or may be trivial calculations used only for output. Regardless, the user should not be confused by this difference and should feel free to investigate the additional elements. Additionally, in some figures the elements may be slightly rearranged for the convenience of the viewer.

reactor constructionstarting

construction f raction

License Applications

license application

application approv al time

Reactor ConstructionsWanted

wanting newreactor

constructioncapacity

~

Approv ed Reactor Construction

license being approv ed

reactor power

reactor capacity factor

Anticipated Additional Capacity

approv al switch

applicationsnew program start orders

number reactors

total applications



license application


wanting newreactor



Figure 7. A section of the model showing all detail and connections (top) and details and surrounding parts of the model may be left out of figures to focus the discussion (bottom).

Modeling elements

StockA stock is a modeling representation of a collection of items. Stocks that will be discussed in this document include

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discrete objects like NPPs, workers, and nuclear power programmes, and non-discrete quantities such as generating capacity or fuel. Stocks are represented in iThink as rectangles. The names of the stocks in the model are shown above or below the stock, as shown below. Note there are slight differences between the three examples shown. The first, Retired Technicians, is a stock that represents the number of technicians that have retired. This stock would contain a single number that may change as the model is run. The second stock, Completed Reactors, shows multiple lines on the side and bottom. In iThink, this indicates the stock is an array, and would include multiple numbers that may change as the model is run. In both these types of stocks, the number of objects in the stock is changed by the flows in and out of the stocks. The third stock, Operational Reactors, has vertical lines in the stock symbol, indicating that it is a conveyor and that the objects in the stock reside in the stock for a defined time. In this case, the defined time is the service life of a reactor.

Retired Technicians

Completed Reactors

Operational Reactors

FlowsFlows are constructs that move quantities from one stock to another. Flows are represented by the symbol shown the figure below. Flows can be single values or arrays. The multiple circles on the center of the figure below indicate it is an array.

reactor going on line

ConvertersConverters contain constants or equations and are represented by circles, as shown below. Three types of converters are shown. The first is a converter array as indicated by the multiple circles. This converter may contain an array of numbers or equations. The second converter has a double border. This indicates the converter is linked to a location in another module of the model. The third converter has a switch figure inside the circle, indicating it is linked to a control on the interface.

construction f raction total applications approv al switch

Naming conventionsIn the NPHR model and in this document we attempt to adhere to a convention on naming elements in the model. For one, the element names are chosen to be descriptive of the model element for easy interpretation of their function in the model. Thus Completed Reactors is a collection of reactors that

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have completed construction and reactor going on line is a flow of reactors moving from completion to operation. Element names also follow the convention on capitalization:

Stocks – names are capitalized

Flows – names are lower case

Converters – names are lower case

Variable names in the text will be italicized to distinguish them from other text.

Names in equations In equations, element names have the spaces replaced by underscores. So a stock that is referred to in the text as Retired Technicians when used in an equation would be shown as Retired_Technicians. Note that this format must also be followed in the input files.

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3.3 Lifecycle of a Nuclear Power ProgrammeThis Section provides a description of the complete lifecycle of a nuclear power programme, from early planning phases, construction, operation, to decommissioning. This lifecycle is illustrated in Figure 8.

The IAEA has produced a guidance document “Milestones in the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power” [1] describing three distinct phases in the development of a national Infrastructure for a new Nuclear Power programme. These are:

Phase 1: Considerations before a decision to launch a nuclear power programme is taken;

Phase 2: Preparatory work for the construction of a nuclear power plant after a policy decision has been taken;

Phase 3: Activities to implement a first nuclear power plant.

The achievement of the infrastructure conditions for each of these phases is marked by a specific milestone at which the progress and success of the development effort can be assessed and a decision made to move on to the next phase. These are:

Milestone 1: Ready to make a knowledgeable commitment to a nuclear programme;

Milestone 2: Ready to invite bids for the first nuclear power plant;

Milestone 3: Ready to commission and operate the first nuclear power plant.

Workforce decisions, such as hiring rates and timing, depend on the progress of the NPP. Therefore it is important that the lifecycle be represented in sufficient detail to include the events that affect workforce decisions. In Table 1, each phase is described along with some of the issues and events that may affect workforce decisions.

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Figure 8. Lifecycle of a Nuclear Power Programme (See Reference 1).

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Table 1. Description of the lifecycle phases of a nuclear power programme.

Phase Description Modeling ConsiderationsConsiderations before a decision to launch a Nuclear Power Programme (Phase 1)

This phase includes the activities a country must conduct prior to initiating a nuclear power programme

Activity during this phase is in the NEPIO and not in the regulatory body or NPP operations. This phase appears as a delay prior to plant construction.

Preparatory work for the construction of a NPP (Phase 2)

This phase begins with the decision to move forward with a nuclear power programme. During this phase, the regulatory body and operator/owner are established and developed.

During this phase, staffing for the regulatory body is developed and prepared to license the NPP. The operator/owner begins staffing key management positions and plans for developing the operations staff.

Activities to implement a first NPP (Phase 3)

The construction phase includes the period from plant approval until the plant is ready for start-up. It includes contracting for a plant, the period of plant design, the licensing of the plant, and construction

During Phase 3, the regulating body is working on licensing issues. The licensing process along with regulating body staffing together determine the length of the license application period. The construction contractor must find sufficient qualified staffing for plant construction. There is significant variability in the number of workers needed and the duration of construction. The operator must also be hiring staff and training them for when the plant is ready for operations

Operations The operations phase begins when a plant is approved for generating power and continues until the plant reaches its end of life. During this time there are multiple refueling outages and possibly license renewal decisions. Planning and initiation of additional plants may occur, which start with the second phase for each plant. The regulatory body provides oversight and review for plant operations.

Depending on the level of fidelity desired, the model should represent as many of the events in the operating life as the analyst feels are needed. This may include refueling processes and other. The license renewal decision is a major event in the plant life. During this phase, the operator must consider the career span of its staff, including hiring, attrition, retirement, and retraining. Staffing for additional units should be considered during this phase.

Decommissioning At the end of a plant life, the plant is brought to cold shut down, fuel is removed, and the plant is prepared for its long-term disposition. This may occur for one plant while others continue operation.

This phase is not modeled in detail at this time. However, a major decision of the programme is whether or not to replace each NPP as it retires, which requires planning in advance of plant shutdown.

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We also wish the model to represent some of the key decision drivers and events. For instance, workforce development must be in concert with the design and construction of the NPP. Historically, there is significant uncertainty in the duration of construction. We therefore would like to be able to use the model to investigate what happens when licensing, construction, or other activities take longer than expected. Some key questions that we might like to use the model to investigate include:

What are key timing events in the planning, design, construction, and operation of a NPP?

What uncertainty is there in the duration of the phases of the NPP lifecycle?

How does choice of reactor technology affect the lifecycle?

What lifecycle decisions are made (e.g. permit renewal, etc.)?

What are the impacts on the programme of staffing shortfalls or excess staff?

Effective development and use of modeling tools to assist decision makers will consider these and additional questions, and seek to represent the decisions in the model.

Technical Details This section describes the details of the portion of the NPHR model that represents the nuclear power programme and lifecycle of the NPP. To find the NPP lifecycle model, open the NPHR model in iThink. Go to the MODEL tab (left side of screen)). There will be two modules shown; Reactors and Workforce. Double click the Reactors module. In this model are three sections. Near the top of the module are fuel calculations, at the bottom are electrical capacity calculations, and in the middle are the nuclear power programme and reactor lifecycle calculations.

In this model, we represent each phase of the NPP lifecycle as a stock. Thus the stock Reactors Under Construction would hold the number of reactors under construction. The flows between the stocks represent the NPP moving from one phase to the next. The flow reactor construction starting thus is the flow between Approved Reactor Construction and Reactors Under Construction. The controls and logic of the model specify when a NPP moves from one stock to another. Since the NPP moving from one phase to the next depends on a decision (ie the completed NPP needs regulatory approval before operations begin), the model includes stocks representing the intermediate stage between phases, such as Completed Reactors. In the rest of this section we will discuss how each phase of the NPP lifecycle is represented in the model.

The early planning stages, (Phase 1, above, considerations before a decision to launch a NP programme) for the nuclear power programme are represented by the model shown in Figure 9. The flow initiating phase 1 provides the input to the conveyor Phase 1, which holds the programme for a set time defined in the flow completing phase 1, which then passes the programme to MS1. The converter phase 1 init sets the timing for initializing the programme. This defaults to initialize the programme in year 1. The converter phase 1 duration contains the time in years for Phase 1 activities. This is set to 3 years consistent with Reference 1. However, the duration of Phase 1, can and should be adjusted depending

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upon national plans and priorities) The converter ms1 complete is used to trigger the NPP lifecycle to allow initiation of Phase 2, preparation for construction.

Phase 1

initiating phase 1 completing phase 1

ms1 complete

phase 1 duration

MS1

phase 1 init~

Figure 9. Model representation of phase 1 for planning a nuclear power programme.

The lifecycle of the NPP is represented by the model structure shown in Figure 10 (Note that the end of the flow shown in the upper part of the figure is continued in the lower part of the figure.). Converters are not show in Figure 10 for clarity. The lifecycle starts with the demand for a NPP and traces the NPP to its ultimate disposition. The structure alternates stocks and conveyors. This structure allows the inclusion of decision processes. For example, the stock Reactor Constructions Wanted may contain multiple reactors, but none move to License Applications until the flow license application is enabled by completion of phase 1 activities as discussed above. Similarly, decision points arise during the NPP lifecycle. When the license is approved there is a decision to proceed with construction, when the reactor is completed there is a decision to begin operations, and when the reactor reaches end of life there is a decision to extend the life or to shut down the reactor. This process is consistent with the single Combined Operating License (COL) approach of the USNRC. In some countries multiple licenses are applied for by the operating organization and reviewed by the nuclear regulator (i.e., one or more during construction and an additional license to operate upon completion of construction and commissioning tests. The developers of this model don’t expect that these differences will have a significant impact on staffing for either the operating organization or the nuclear regulator. Each of these decision points could be explored with additional modeling development. For example, in some countries the operating license needs to be renewed after 5 to 10 years, which could be added to the NPHR model. We will now examine each phase of the NPP lifecycle model in detail.

Reactors UnderConstruction




license application


wanting newreactor



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Shut Down Reactors

reactor going on line reactors retiring

Completed Reactors

new reactors being loaded

Reactors with License Renewal

reactors reaching end of lif e

Reactors with license renewal reitring

Reactors at End of Lif e

reactors undergoing license renewal


Figure 10. The NPP lifecycle as represented in the NPHR model.

The NPP lifecycle begins with the demand for an NPP leading to the application for a license. The model is shown in Figure 11. The stock Anticipated Additional Capacity is a projected future demand for electrical generating capacity. The dashed lines indicate that this stock is copied from elsewhere in the model (see Ghost tool in the iThink Documentation). This calculation will be discussed later in the section on Electrical Capacity. The converter number reactors calculates the equivalent number of reactors for the Anticipated Additional Capacity, using the converters reactor power, reactor capacity factor, and construction fraction. The equation in number reactors is

INT(Anticipated_Additional_Capacity*construction_fraction[Reactors]*reactor_capacity_factor/reactor_power[Reactors])

The INT function ensures the equation returns an integral number of reactors. Note that these elements are all arrays, and construction fraction allows the capacity to be fulfilled by a combination of different reactor types. This will be discussed below. The flow wanting new reactor adds demand for new reactors to the stock Reactor Constructions Wanted, which contains the number of new reactors wanted. This demand accumulates until license applications move the NPP demand into the License Applications stock. The flow license application is enabled by the logic in start orders, which combines ms1 complete from the Phase 1 model described above with the new programme switch, which appears on the model interface. The flow in license applications is

start_orders*Reactor_Constructions_Wanted[Reactors]/dt

If the model is being run for an existing programme, start orders is set to 1 and reactor demand flows to License Applications. If the model is being run for a new programme, the flow is prevented until completion of Phase 1 at which time ms1 and start orders change from 0 to 1 and flow is enabled.

There is significant detail related to the early phases of a nuclear power programme that is not represented in the model. In the early phases the regulatory body is established and develops

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regulations and licensing procedures. Laws are established, bid specifications developed, a bidding process is established, and more.

construction f raction

license application


wanting newreactor

reactor power

reactor capacity factor


ms1 complete

new program start orders

number reactors

Figure 11. Model for demand for new NPP.

The model for licensing through construction of a NPP (Phases 2 and 3) is shown in Figure 12. The license application flow initiates a License Application. Note that License Application is a conveyor, and the time for an application to move through this process is governed by the converter application approval time. Note the converter applications and total applications. These values are summations of the number of applications in the pipeline and total applications is graphed in the interface. After the application period, the NPP moves to Approved Reactor Construction and awaits start of construction. The model includes two factors to control the start of construction. One is the approval switch, which appears on the interface. This switch is to represent the final decision to move ahead with construction. The second is the construction capacity converter, which represents the number of plants that can be under construction at a given time. The flow reactor construction starting is set to the minimum of construction capacity and Approved Reactor Construction:

approval_switch*min(Approved_Reactor_Construction[Reactors],construction_capacity*dt)/dt

If the approval switch is set to no (0), no plants start construction. The converter construction capacity represents the limit on the number of units that a country can have under construction at one time. This is a graphical variable and can be set to change with time. This limit was included in the model to evaluate the industrial capacity limitations such as large castings for established programmes undergoing a rapid nuclear power expansion. The default value allows up to 10 plants under construction at a time. This is admittedly, a larger value than would be appropriate for new NP programmes or small countries, however, it is a limit, not a goal.

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Reactors UnderConstruction



Completed Reactors

reactor construction time

construction time


application approv al time

pessimistic construction time

constructioncapacity

~



construction switch

sum reactors under construction

approv al switch

applications

total applications

total reactors under construction

Figure 12. Licensing through construction phases.

Once the NPP moves to the construction phase (Phase 3), it enters the Conveyor Reactor Under Construction. The time to cross the conveyor is defined in the converter construction time, which chooses between two times, reactor construction time and pessimistic construction time, by use of construction switch which appears on the interface. Once the construction period is complete, the reactor moves to the Completed Reactors stock.

Figure 13 shows the model for the operational phase of the NPP lifecycle. Completed reactors are loaded with fuel and once final commissioning testing (and in some cases additional licensing) is completed they become operational, entering the Operational Reactors conveyor. The operational period is set by the converter reactor lifetime. Upon completion of this time, the NPP moves to the Reactors at End of Life stock. This represents a decision point, which is made via the license renewal switch. The NPP at this point moves to Shut Down Reactors if license renewal is set to no (logical 0), or to Reactors with License Renewal if license renewal is set to yes (logical 1). The length of the license renewal is set by the converter license renewal time, after which the NPP moves to the Shut Down Reactor stock.

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Shut Down Reactors

reactor going on line reactors retiring

reactors operational

Completed Reactors

new reactors being loaded

reactors going of f line

reactor lif etime

application approval time

Reactors with License Renewal

reactors reaching end of lif e

Reactors with license renewal reitring

license renewal time

license renewal

total reactors

reactors to order

Reactors at End of Lif e

reactors undergoing license renewal


construction time

initial reactors

Figure 13. The operational phase of the NPP lifecycle.

Note that the NPHR model includes disposition paths for the reactors after they have been shut down. This part of the model is not currently used. The structure is included in NPHR but all flows after Shut Down Reactors are set to 0.

Array StructureAs noted earlier in this section, the modeling elements in the NPP lifecycle model are arrays. This means they contain a structure that allows for different types of reactors. To see the array structure, open the stock Reactor Constructions Wanted, as shown in Figure 14. Note that the Array attribute is selected, and the drop down menus indicate it is an 1-D array called Reactors. Clicking the To Editor button gives drop down menus to edit the arrays. Under Dimension Name, the Reactors array is found at #12. The elements in the Reactor array are PWR, BWR, PHWR, GCR, RBMK, FBR, SMR, Nuclear Batteries, and Research Reactors. While the model is structured to include a variety of reactor types, the data for almost all of them are not included at this time. Canceling the Array Editor returns to the dialog box for Reactor Constructions Wanted as shown in Figure 8. The initial value box contains the value [1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0], which means the initial conditions for the model order a single PWR. This is a default value, as this is the most common reactor type, both in operation and under construction, at present.

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Figure 14. Details of the Reactor Constructions Wanted stock.

Testing the ModelThe NPP lifecycle model was designed with a flexible structure that could be used for an established programme or a new programme, and significant variations within those programmes. The key to the NPP lifecycle model is verifying that reactors move through the model as expected. This can be done by inserting a table in the model and populating that model to track the progress of a unit through the model, as shown in Table 2. By this it can be verified that the model is working properly.

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Table 2. Sample table used to verify that the NPP lifecycle model is working properly.

DataThe data required for the NPP lifecycle model includes the initial conditions for the lifecycle (how many NPP units are in each phase of the lifecycle) and the timing factors for each phase. The initial conditions are a statement of the current NPP operating in the country of interest and the plans for future NPP units. The timing factors are more difficult; the ones in the NPHR model are based on experience for the USA, but should be adjusted for the processes planned for the specific country being modeled. Accompanying the initial version of NPHR is a set of data files in excel. The data for the NPP lifecycle are included in the file US Nuclear Plants.xls. Table 3 contains a portion of the spreadsheet (see the excel file for complete data). The variable name column contains each variable that appears in the NPP lifecycle model. The first four variables are conveyors in the model, so the data in each cell is a string spanning the transit time for the conveyor. Thus, Operational_Reactors contains for each reactor type a string of 40 numbers representing the number of reactors in the USA of each age. Similarly, Reactor_Under_Construction contains a number for each reactor in years 1 through 10 of construction, and License_Applications contains the number of licenses that have been in the licensing review process 4 years, 3 years, 2 years, and 1 year. Clearly for a new programme, these arrays should be filled with zeros. The factors lower in the table represent values based on the US programme and are reasonable starting points for any programme, but should be modified as more details are learned about the specific programme being modeled.

Note: the variable names in the spreadsheet must match the names of the elements in the model exactly. If a variable name in the model is changed, the spreadsheet must be updated.

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Table 3. An excerpt from the US Nuclear Plant spreadsheet. See the spreadsheet for complete data.

Variable name PWR BWROperational_Reactors 0,2,2,3,4,8,3,3,4,3,0,2,4,1,2,4,5,5,4,4,2,2,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,02,1,2,2,2,5,4,0,2,0,1,0,0,0,1,3,2,3,2,2,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0Reactors_Under_Construction 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0 0Installed_Generating_Capacity 0,1009.7,1488,2006,2889,5912.6,2784.1,2713,3724.999,2890,0,1898,4240,1127,1909,4336,5733.001,6027.002,4020,4856.998,2429,2394.279,0,0,1150,0,0,1121,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,01240,867,1439,1304.95,1734,4925.34,3487.8,0,2052,0,883,0,0,0,1135,3369,2406,3162,2274,2262,0,1134,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0License_Applications 0,1,16,2 0Reactors_at_End_of_Life 0 0Reactors_with_License_Renewal 0 0Completed_Reactors 0 0Approved_Reactor_Construction 0 0Reactor_Constructions_Wanted 0 0construction_fraction 1 0reactor_lifetime 40 40reactor_power 1000 1000core_loading 72 140fraction_core_refueled .3 .3refueling_period 1 1reactor_construction_time 4 4pessimistic_construction_time 7 7construction_capacity 10application_approval_time 4 4phase_1_duration 3reactor_capacity_factor 0.903license_renewal_time 20 20Starting_Electrical_Demand 4153Electric_Growth_Rate 0.01Target_Fraction 20replace_retiring_reactors 1nuclear_expansion 1approval_switch 1new_program 0license_renewal 1construction_switch 1

Note that the excel file US Nuclear Plants.xls includes the source data and calculations leading to the input values. Three tabs hold the source data: US Plant Data, US Applications, and Licensing. The tab US Plant Data has data from the NEI for all US operating plants (see WWW.NEI.Org). In columns M and N of that sheet are calculated the age and first operating year for each plant. In the tab Plant Inputs, these data are converted into the string for the Operational Reactors variable. Note that the oldest plant must be represented as the last number in the variable string. The reader is referred to the iThink software documentation for complete information on data input formats. Similarly, the tab US Applications contains the source data from the NEI for the License_Applications variable. The tab licensing contains the basis for the duration of the licensing process that is followed by the US NRC.

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Data cannot be imported directly from the US Nuclear Plant data file. Along with the data file described above, two input data files are provided: Reactors New Program and Reactor Data US. These files contain the data copied from the input tab in US Nuclear Plants.xls in the correct format to be imported into the NPHR Model.

Topics for Additional Development This section provides some ideas for modification of the model. These are provided to help stimulate thinking about how well the model represents the details of a nuclear power programme that are important to decision makers.

Replace the timing constants with supply chain models. Generate the data required for additional reactor types. Add details for the early phases (Phase 1 and Phase 2) of the NPP lifecycle representing

additional decisions and country-specific processes. Represent multi-unit sites in the model. How would construction proceed if there were insufficient construction workers? How could this

situation be modeled? What would be the impact to plant operations if there were insufficient operations staff? How

could this be reflected in the model?

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3.4 A Model of Electrical Generating CapacityThe nuclear power programme life cycle model (previous section) was constructed to allow the initiation of new plants to be driven by the need for electrical demand. This appears in the interface as the switch labeled “Expand Nuclear Power” and the slider labeled “Target Fraction of Total Electric Demand to be Met by Nuclear in 2030”. This section describes the model for electrical generating capacity in the NPHR Model. The electrical generating capacity model has one input on the interface, the slider labeled “Growth Rate for Total Electricity Demand”, which changes the assumption for the country’s electrical generation growth rate. The electrical generating capacity model results are shown in the “Electrical Generation” graph and the “Fraction from Nuclear Power” graph.

The main functions of the electrical generating capacity model are

Project the total electrical demand as it grows over time Track the generating capacity from nuclear power plants including new plants being built and

plants reaching end of life Calculate the new and replacement generating requirement for the nuclear power programme

The demand for new electrical generating capacity from nuclear power plants is provided as an input to the nuclear power programme lifecycle as the stock Anticipated Additional Capacity, which is used in the calculation number reactors and fed into Reactor Constructions Wanted at the beginning of the reactor lifecycle (See Previous Section).

The electrical generating capacity model is found in the reactors module, below the NPP lifecycle model.

Technical DetailsElectrical generating capacity for a nuclear power programme is represented by the model shown in Figure 15. Electrical generating capacity is treated as a quantity that flows through the process. Demand for additional capacity is calculated on the left. Note that the capacity here is specifically the capacity to be met by nuclear power. When a plant is ordered, the capacity that is expected to come on line is moved to Ordered Capacity. When the plant comes on line, its capacity is then moved to Installed Generating Capacity. Installed Generating Capacity is a conveyor, and the capacity for the plant is given the same lifetime as the plant. If the plant license is renewed after its initial service life, its generating capacity is moved to Capacity with License Renewal. If the plant license is not renewed the capacity is discarded through capacity not renewed. Both paths for loss of generating capacity must feed back to Anticipated Additional Capacity for new plants.

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Pre-defined functions appear in the converter dialog box as built-ins. From the top menu bar, select Help and from the drop down menu Help again. In the Help dialog box, a discussion of built-ins appears in the Part 2 - Deeper Details file.

Installed Generating CapacityAnticipated Additional Capacity

adding generating capacityanticipating new capacity remov ing capacity

Capacity with License RenewalCapacity f or License Renewal

capacity being renewed capacity being remov ed

capacity not renewed

Ordered Capacity

ordering capacity

Figure 15. The model for nuclear power generating capacity.

The model tracks the generating capacity to be met by nuclear power, which begins with the demand represented by anticipating new capacity. This demand is the combination of three factors; the demand from overall growth in the country’s electrical demand, the target set for growth in the share of that demand to be met by nuclear, and the demand resulting from replacing plants reaching their end of life. This calculation is shown in Figure 16. The converter starting electrical demand is the country’s total electric demand at the start of the simulation in TWhr. The converter average growth calculates the average capacity increase per year to meet the target demand in 2030. This calculation is

(1e6/(365.2*24))*(1/20)*((target_fraction/100)*starting_electrical_demand*(1+electric_growth_rate)^20-INIT(nuc_fraction)*starting_electrical_demand/100)

The first term in the parentheses is the electrical generating demand to be met by nuclear in 2030 accounting for overall growth in the total demand. The fraction to be met by nuclear is target fraction/100, while starting electrical demand*(1+electric growth rate)^60 is the total generating demand projected for 2030. The second term is the electrical generating demand met by nuclear at the start of the simulation. The function INIT specifies the initial values for the argument, nuc fraction. The factor 20 reflects the 20 year period of growth (2011 to 2030), and the constants 1e6/(365.2*24) convert from TWh to MW.

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DT is the time interval of each simulation step. Developers should read the help file on DT. From the top menu bar, select Help and from the drop down menu Help again. In the Help dialog box, a discussion of DT appears in the Part 3 - Technical Appendices file.


anticipating new capacity

reactor capacity f actor

target f raction

electrical demand

nuc f raction

electric growth rate

nuclear expansion

replace retiring reactors

starting electrical demand

av erage growth

reactors to order

replacement power

power being retired

Ordered Capacity

ordering capacity

Figure 16. The calculation of demand for new generating capacity from nuclear power.

The second contribution to anticipated new capacity is the power required to replace rectors that are expected to reach end of life. Calculation of this is straight forward, multiplying the number of reactors to be retired by their rated power and capacity factor. The key to the calculation is the timing of putting the replacement power into Anticipated Additional Capacity. The replacement power should come on line at the same time as the retiring reactor goes off line. This time is the sum of the licensing and construction times. The converter reactors to order contains the calculation

QELEM(Operational_Reactors[Reactors],application_approval_time[Reactors]/dt+construction_time[Reactors]/dt +2/dt)*(1-license_renewal)+ QELEM(Reactors_with_License_Renewal[Reactors],application_approval_time[Reactors]/dt+construction_time[Reactors]/dt+2/dt)/dt*license_renewal

The QELEM function (short for Query Element) is used to select data in a conveyor at a specified location. In this case, the first QELEM function queries the Operational Reactors conveyor for the number of reactors in the position specified by the sum of application approval time and construction time. The second QELEM function does the same for the Reactors with License Renewal conveyor. If the license renewal switch is set to yes (logic value 1), then the first term becomes zero and Reactors with License Renewal is queried. If the license renewal switch is set to no (logic 0) then the

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Note: A useful tool in modeling in iThink is the ghost tool. This allows a converter or stock to be copied to another location in the model without a trail of red connectors. Ghost items are designated by the dashed outline. Read more about ghost operators in Help under Part 1 – Basic Operations, under Tools.

second term is zero. The additional factor 2/dt selects the reactors an additional 2 years prior to retirement in order to get the new reactors in the pipeline in proper time.

Anticipated Additional Capacity sums the needed power as total capacity in MW. It is done this way so that capacity can be met by any type of reactor and the model is not restricted to one-for-one replacement. Capacity moves from Anticipated Additional Capacity to Ordered Capacity when a license application is made, as shown in Figure 17. License application is a ghost converter copied from the NPP lifecycle model. Note that license application is an array of reactors, so that the capacity is now organized by reactor type throughout the rest of the model. Capacity remains in Ordered Capacity until a reactor is completed as indicated by the reactor going on line converter, whereupon it moves to Installed Generating Capacity.

Installed Generating CapacityAnticipated Additional Capacity

adding generating capacity

reactor capacity f actor


reactor power

Ordered Capacity

ordering capacity

license application

Figure 17. Capacity moves from anticipated to ordered to installed.

The remainder of the electrical generating capacity model is directly parallel to the reactor lifecycle model, as shown in Figure 18. Capacity is installed for the reactor lifetime. At the end of the reactor initial service life, the capacity moves to Capacity with License Renewal if the reactor gets a license renewal. Otherwise the capacity is taken offline.

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Installed Generating Capacity

remov ing capacity

Capacity with License RenewalCapacity f or License Renewal

capacity being renewed capacity being remov ed

reactor lifetime license renewal time

license renewalcapacity not renewed

Figure 18. The model for installed nuclear generating capacity.

Testing the modelThe model can be tested in a fashion similar to how the NPP model was tested. Inserting a table and observing the capacity moving through the model verifies that the model operates as expected. See Table 4.

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Table 4. Verifying the electrical generating capacity model.

DataThe only data needed for the electrical capacity model are the starting electrical demand and projected growth rate, for which representative values were adopted from the US Energy Information Agency (www.EIA.gov), and the reactor power by type and reactor capacity factor, which can be found on the NEI website. The average capacity factor for US plants is currently used as a representative value. These data are included in the input files as discussed above.

Topics for Additional Development Include of other generating sectors to represent the complete country electrical strategy Include variable capacity factors for learning with experience in operating the reactor.

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3.5 NPHR Workforce CalculationsThe next sections describe the elements of the workforce model, which is found in the workforce module. The workforce model tracks workers from when they enter the educational system, through different tracks in the nuclear power industry to retirement. The following four sections describe the four main elements of the workforce model. These sections are

Operations workforce (technicians and engineers)

Regulatory body

Plant construction and craft operations workforce

Educational system

Some calculations that link to the workforce model are described in the Supporting Calculations section. These calculations are:

Plant Start-Up

Outsourcing

Retirement Calculation

Specialized training

The educational system includes trade school, two year training programmes, and four year degree programmes, leading to skill levels as craft workers, technicians, and professional workers, respectively. The career paths modeled are plant construction and maintenance, plant operations, and regulatory body staffing. The model focuses on technical staff, for which a complete career is modeled. Other staff such as clerical workers and management are identified through staffing numbers but not explicitly modeled.

The workforce for a nuclear power plant is a very complex and varied system. There are multiple ways to approach staffing a plant, and numerous career paths within the industry. There are many considerations for managing the workforce with issues arising throughout a worker’s career including career progression, training, and more. The NPHR model has captured some of these elements with the objective of illustrating the effect of various approaches and decisions on workforce planning.

The objective of the model is to examine the nuclear workforce and the effect of planning decisions on the nuclear workforce. The section below will discuss multiple calculations around the nuclear workforce that lead to a model flexible enough to explore workforce issues related to career progression, workforce management, and recruiting.

Note that the model is based on data from the US approach to education and NPP staffing. This approach may or may not reflect the approach in a different country. Adjustments for approaches that

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NPP Workforce Skill Level

Clerical

Technician (2-year degree)

Professional (4-year degree)

Managerial

Skilled Craft

Total Staff

Specialization

differ only slightly from that of the US may require only changes in some of the variables in the model. Other approaches may require changes to the model structure. Developers should examine the details below and evaluate changes that might be required.

Workforce StructureTo understand the model structure and calculations, an understanding of the structure and composition of the NPP workforce is needed. Models are always constrained by the data available. Therefore, the model structure reflects how the workforce is described in various data sources. Figure 19 shows a representation of how the structure of the NPP workforce is represented in the NPHR model. The NPP workforce can also be viewed as performing a function within a process area, as in Table 5 (Reference 2). Different references may give variations on these designations.

Figure 19. Structure of the NPP workforce.

Table 5. NPP workforce by process area and job function.

Process Area FunctionOperations ALARA

ChemistryConstruction Craft

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Figure 19. Structure of the NPP workforce.

Construction MgtEnvironmental

Facility MaintenanceHP AppliedHP SupportMaintenanceOperationsOutage ManagementRadwaste/DeconSecuritySchedulingShift EngineersTraining

Licensing and Engineering Civil EngineeringComputer EngineeringDesign/DraftingElectrical EngineeringEmergency PlanningEngineering ProgrammesInformation ManagementLicensingMechanical EngineeringNuclear Eng/FuelNuclear Safety ReviewPlant EngineeringProcurement EngineeringProject ManagementReactor Engineering

Corporate Finance & Admin CommunicationsContractsDocument ControlFinance/BudgetHuman ResourcesLegalMaterials ManagementPurchasingQuality AssuranceQuality ControlWarehouse

Common processes Admin/Tech AssistClericsFire/Safety/Health

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Management

This structure is embodied in the model as a set of factors that are used in calculations of workforce supply and demand. These factors are defined as follows.

Note: at this point the factors are defined so their use in the model can be understood. The data for each factor will be discussed later.

skill area fractions is an array containing the fraction of all plant workers by skill level; manager, professional, technician, skilled craft, and semi-skilled.

process area fractions is an array containing the fraction of all plant workers in each process area; Operations, Equipment Reliability, Materials and Services, Support Services and Training, Work Management, Configuration Management, and Loss Prevention.

process area eng fractions is a two-dimensional array containing the fraction of each process area staffed by engineers of each specialty.

process area tech fractions is a two-dimensional array containing the fraction of each process area staffed by technicians of each specialty.

craft operations fraction is an array containing the fraction of skilled craft workers on the operating staff of an NPP in each skill area, boilermakers, carpenters, electricians, iron workers, insulators, laborers, masons, millwrights, painters, pipefitters, sheet metal workers, and teamsters.

These arrays will appear in the calculations discussed below and are important for understanding the logic of the model. Details of the data for these arrays will be discussed below.

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3.6 Nuclear Workforce ModelIn this section, the model of the NPP workforce is discussed. The model of the NPP operating workforce forms the centerpiece around which other topics are developed, so it is a logical starting point.

Operating WorkforceFigure 20 shows the conceptual model of the NPP operating staff. The Engineer Workforce Pool (left) contains the national pool of engineers from which workers can be hired into Nuclear Workforce to operate the plant (center). The flow of workers, hiring engineers, from the Engineer Workforce Pool into the Nuclear Workforce comes from two sources, hiring staff at initial start-up of an NPP and replacement of staff lost to attrition or retirement. Workers can return to the Engineer Workforce Pool (engineers released) if a plant closes, which is important for established nuclear programmes. Workers can be lost to other careers (bottom, labeled attrition), and they can retire into Retired Engineers (right). While conceptually simple, the model rapidly becomes complex as the calculations for workforce dynamics and details of the workforce structure are added. While Figure 2 shows the model specifically for engineers (professional staff), a similar structure appears in the model for technicians and skilled craft workers.

Nuclear Workf orce

staf fretiring

attrition

hiring engineers

Engineer Workf orce Pool Retired Engineersengineers released

Figure 20. Conceptual model for NPP workforce showing engineering staff.

Figure 21 shows the calculation for workers being hired to operate an NPP. The flow hiring engineers moves workers from the Engineer Workforce Pool into Nuclear Workforce. The converter engineers needed is the sum of the engineers needed to staff new plants (staff for new plants) and the engineers needed to replace workers lost to retirement or attrition (replacement engineers). Details of the calculations for new staffing and workforce attrition can be found in the supporting calculations section. The total engineers needed is divided between workers from domestic sources and workers from foreign sources, as specified by the factor Outsourcing foreign outsourcing. Details of the outsourcing calculation can be found in the supporting calculations section. Hiring engineers moves a quantity of workers specified by engineers from domestic from Engineering Workforce Pool to Nuclear Workforce. Note that Engineer Workforce Pool is an array of engineering disciplines, while Nuclear Workforce is an array of process areas. The factor process area eng fractions is a two-dimensional array that maps engineering areas into process areas. Similarly, foreign engineer employment moves a quantity of

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workers specified by engineers from foreign from the Foreign Engineer Pool to Nuclear Workforce, again using the factor process area eng fractions to translate from engineering disciplines to process areas. Note that foreign engineer employment is a bi-directional flow and is also used to return workers to the Foreign Engineer Pool.

Nuclear Workf orce

Foreign Engineer Pool

hiring engineers

Engineer Workf orce Pool

f oreign engineer employ ment

engineers f rom domestic

replacement engineers

engineers f rom f oreign

staff for new plants

engineers needed

process area fractions

Outsourcing.foreign outsourcing

process area eng f ractions

Figure 21. Model of the nuclear workforce for professional skill level.

Just as workers can move into the Nuclear Workforce, they can also be released back to the Engineer Workforce Pool, as shown in Figure 22. The flow engineers released returns staff from Nuclear Workforce to Engineer Workforce Pool when a plant closes. These workers are then available for hiring at another plant. The total workers being released is staff from retired reactors, which is the product of the number of plants closing (Reactors.reactors going off line) and the plant staff size. Multiplying this total by the factor in skill area fractions specifying the number of engineers (skill_area_fractions[prof])gives the number of engineers being released, and process area fractions distributes them across the process areas. Note the calculation of flow includes the outsourcing factor so that the Engineer Workforce Pool includes the domestic workforce only. Foreign workers return to the Foreign Workforce Pool. Engineers released is zero unless a plant closes at end of life, and thus is does not come into play when the model is run for new programmes.

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Nuclear Workf orce

Foreign Engineer Pool


f oreign engineer employ ment

engineers f rom retired reactors

f oreign engineers released

process area f ractions


domestic engineers released

skill area f ractions

plant staff size

Reactors.reactors going off line

staf f f rom retired reactors

engineers released

Figure 22. Release of nuclear workforce to pools of engineers.

Workers also leave the Nuclear Workforce through attrition and retirement, as shown in Figure 23. Staff retiring removes workers from the Nuclear Workforce and moves them to Retired Engineers. These workers are not available for hire at another plant. Staff retiring is calculated from workforce retired, which contains the number of staff retiring each year. This is discussed in detail in workforce attrition in the supporting calculation section. The model also includes removal of staff from Nuclear Workforce by attrition. This flow is designed to model loss of staff to other careers. Currently this value is set to zero. Staff retiring and attrition are summed in replacement engineers, which feeds back into engineers needed.

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Nuclear Workf orce

staf fretiring

attrition

replacement engineers

Retired Engineersworkforce retired

Figure 23. Retirement and attrition of the Nuclear Workforce.

Technician Workforce ModelA model similar to the model for engineering staff is shown in Figure 24 and represents the technician workforce. The calculations for the technician workforce are done in the same manner as for the professional tracks. The notable difference here is that process area tech fractions replaces process area eng fractions.

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Note: “Initial_Workforce_Calc.” at the beginning of the variable indicates the variable Initial_Workforce is found in a module called Initial Workforce Calc.

hiring techs

Tech Nuclear Workf orce

tech staf fretiring

tech attrition


f oreign technician pool

f oreign technician employ ment

Retired Technicians

replacement technicians wanted

staff for new plants

staff from retired reactors


technician released

replacement technicians wanted

technicians f rom retired reactors

technicians needed

process area tech f ractions

Technician Workf orce Pool

skill area fractions


technicians f rom f oreigntechnicians f rom domestic

domestic technicians releasedf oreign technicians released


tech workforce retired

Figure 24. The model for the technician nuclear workforce.

Initial ValuesNuclear Workforce and Tech Nuclear Workforce have initial values that are calibrated to the starting number of NPPs. In the Nuclear Workforce dialog box, the initial value is set to

Initial_Workforce_Calcs.Initial_Workforce[ProcessArea,Prof]

The module Initial Workforce Calcs is found in the upper right hand corner of the workforce module. Note the module has multiple inputs from the workforce module and from the reactors module. The calculation in the Initial Workforce Calcs module is shown in Figure 25. The calculation is based on plant staff size, which contains the size of the operating staff for each type of reactor in the model (see plant start up under supporting calculations). In total initial reactor staff, this is multiplied by reactors operational, which contains the number of each type of plant on line at the start of the simulation. (An additional factor is added to ensure the initial value is non-zero to prevent run errors.) Total initial workforce is the summation of staff across all reactor types. Three calculations are made from this value, staffing by skill level, staffing by process area, and the age distribution of the total staff,

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which will be used in the retirement calculation described in the supporting calculations section. The converter initial workforce is a two-dimensional array of staffing by skill level and process area, which appears in the initial value for Nuclear Workforce as

Initial_Workforce_Calcs.Initial_Workforce[ProcessArea,Prof]

And in the initial value for the Tech Nuclear Workforce as

Initial_Workforce_Calcs.Initial_Workforce[ProcessArea,Tech]

The specification of Prof and Tech in the variable selects the desired skill level, while ProcessArea indicates the values are included across all process areas.

Workforce.plant staff size initial workf orce age f ractions

staf f process area f ractions

min initial workf orce

initial workf orce

total initial reactor staf f

total initial area staf f

total initial skill staf f

total initial workf orce

Workforce.Reactors Operational

Workforce.skill area fractions

initial age workf orce

Figure 25. The initial workforce calculation.

DataThe workforce calculations rely on the data arrays described above. These arrays are derived from source data, which can be found in the workforce data spreadsheet. The derivations often require integration of multiple data sets. Alternative data sets might exist and the spreadsheet is designed to allow the user to generate an alternate input file.

Reference staff size is an array containing total staffing for each type of reactor. Currently, all 1000 MW reactor types are given a default staff size of 845 workers. Since there is great variation in data on staff size (see Goodnight) this is multiplied by a scaling factor Size Factor to give Plant Staff size, which is then used throughout the model. Size Factor is linked to a slider on the interface to allow it to be adjusted from 80% to 120% to allow investigation of varying the assumption on plant staff size.

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In the Workforce Data spreadsheet, the tab Staffing contains the derivations for the arrays used in the workforce model.

Skill area fractions is an array containing the fraction of all plant workers by skill level; manager, professional, technician, skilled craft, and semi-skilled. Data for skill area fractions are adopted from Figure 13 of Reference 4, which gives the staffing fractions for energy production shown in Table 6.

Table 6. Skill area fractions for nuclear energy production workforce.

Skill Level Percentage of

workforceSemi-skilled 4Skilled 12Technician 38Professional 42Manager and Senior Manager 4

Process area fractions is an array containing the fraction of all plant workers in each process area; Operations, Equipment Reliability, Materials and Services, Support Services and Training, Work Management, Configuration Management, and Loss Prevention. The model is designed around the process areas as defined in Figure 26. To determine the staffing for each process area, the staffing levels found in Reference 2 were mapped to these process areas (see the Staffing tab in the Workforce Data spreadsheet). The staffing in each process area is summed to calculate the fraction of total plant staff working in each process area. These values are contained in the process area fractions array and are shown in Table 7.

Table 7. Staffing fractions by process area.

Process AreaFraction of Workforce

Operate the Plant 0.122Equipment Reliability 0.090Materials and services 0.026Support Svcs &training 0.309Work Management 0.246Configuration Management 0.066Loss Prevention 0.141

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Note: the model was initially designed with workforce data aggregated to the Process Area level, even though data were available at the Functional area level. The model could be revised to operate on the Functional Area level of detail, although this would result in working with very small populations of workers.

Operate the Plant

Materials & Services

ChemistryEnvironmentalOperationsOperations Support

Engineering - ComputerEngineering - PlantEngineering - TechnicalQC/NDE

ContractsMaterials MgtPurchasingWarehouse

Support Svcs & Training

Admin/ClericalBudget/FinanceCommunicationsDocument ControlFacilitiesHuman ResourcesInformation MgtManagementManagement AssistTraining

Equipment Reliability

Work Management

ALARAHP AppliedHP SupportMaint/ConstructionMaint/Constr SupportOutage ManagementProject ManagementRadwaste/DeconScheduling

Design/DraftingEngineering - ModsEngineering - ProcurementEngineering - ReactorNuclear Fuels

Configuration Management

Loss Prevention

Emergency PrepFire ProtectionLicensingNuclear Safety ReviewQASafety/HealthSecurity

Figure 26. Grouping of 43 work functions into 7 process areas. See Reference 3.

Process area eng fractions is a two-dimensional array containing the fraction of each process area staffed by engineers of each specialty. In absence of data, it is assumed each process area is staffed by equal numbers of each degree area as shown in Table 8. These assumptions can be changed in the spreadsheet and imported into the model.

Table 8. Distribution of degree by process area.

Operate the Plant


Materials and services

Support Svcs &training

Work Management


Loss Prevention

NE 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2EE 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2CE 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2ME 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2ChE 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Process area fractions tech is a two-dimensional array containing the fraction of each process area staffed by technicians of each specialty. As with the engineering staff, the degree areas are evenly divided for each process area as in Table 9. These assumptions can be changed in the spreadsheet and imported into the model.

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Table 9. Degree area for technicians by process area.

Operate the Plant


Materials and services

Support Svcs &training

Work Management


Loss Prevention

Chemistry 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14Electrical 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14Mechanical 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14Rad Protection 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14Maintenance 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14Instruments 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14Operators 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14

Craft fraction operations per plant is an array containing the percentage of construction workforce in each of the specialties, while Craft operations fraction is an array containing the fraction of skilled craft workers on the operating staff of an NPP in each specialty. The fraction for craft workers in construction is drawn from Reference 5 and are shown in Table 10. Note that the construction craft fractions do not sum to 100. This is because the reference data includes operating engineers which are captured elsewhere in the model. The craft fractions for operations staffing is based on the construction staffing until detailed breakdown can be determined, and rounded up to give a total of 100%.

Table 10. Craft labor staffing fractions assumed for NPP operations.

Skill Area Fraction of craft for construction

Fraction of craft for operations

Boiler Makers 4 5Carpenters 10 10Electricians 18 20Iron Workers 18 20Insulators 2 2Laborers 10 10Masons 2 2Millwrights 3 3Painters 2 2Pipefitters 17 17Sheet Metal Workers 3 3Teamsters 3 6

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Topics for Further Development Revise the arrays Process Area Eng Fractions and Process Area Fractions Tech with detailed

distributions of degree areas across process areas. Expand the model for professional staff to explicitly show non-engineering staff.

Consider what metrics a decision maker might use to evaluate the condition of the workforce. Calculate those metrics from the factors in the model.

With changes here and in the NPP Lifecycle model, represent multi-unit NPP sites.

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3.7 Regulatory BodyThe regulatory body for nuclear safety should begin to be formed as soon as a decision has been made to initiate a nuclear power programme (i.e. at the end of Phase 1). During phase 2 the regulator first develops the regulations related to licensing and operating an NPP, and then reviews the license application based upon these regulations. During Phase 3 the regulatory body provides oversight of the construction and commission to ensure that they are conducted in accordance with its regulations. When the NPP becomes operational, the regulatory body provides oversight through site inspections and analysis. In addition, the regulatory body provides licensing and oversight for waste management and other national users, such as medical isotope providers. The regulatory body is staffed mostly by professional track workers with four-year degrees. The model of the regulatory body is fashioned directly from the US NRC, including the staffing data, but scaled to the size of the NP programme being modeled.

Technical DetailsThe model for the regulatory body, shown in Figure 27, is similar to the model for the plant operating staff. Workers for the regulatory body are contained in Regulatory Workforce, are drawn from the Engineering Workforce Pool and are lost to retirement. However, for regulators the model does not return workers to the Engineer Workforce Pool, nor is attrition to other careers considered.


Regulatory Workf orce

hiring engineers f or regulator

regulators retiring

regulator engineering staf f required

regulator engineering staf f

total regulators

Reactors.total reactors

regulatory staf f f ractions

regulator technical staf f f raction

regulator nontechnical staf f f raction

regulator security staf f f raction

Reactors.total applications

Reactors.total reactors under construction

regulatory base staf f

regulatory operating staf f

regulatory licensing staf f

regulatory other staf f

regulatory staf f required

fraction retiring

Figure 27. The model of the regulatory body.

Regulatory Workforce is an array of regulatory area, which includes Technical, Safeguards, Legal, Science, Security, and Other (other includes such functions as accounting, IT, and investigators). Hiring engineers for regulator calculates the difference between the total staff employed by the regulator

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(regulator engineering staff) and the number of staff the regulator should have (regulator engineering staff required), and hires evenly across the engineering disciplines. Note regulatory engineering staff is a summation of the regulatory staffing areas that could be staffed primarily by engineers, technical, safeguards, and science.

Likewise, regulator engineering staff required is a calculation of the required staffing that could be filled by engineers. Regulatory staffing fractions contains the fraction of staffing for the regulatory body in the six regulatory areas (Technical, Safeguards, Legal, Science, Security, and Other) and is derived from NRC staffing data (see below). The staffing fractions for technical, safeguards, and science are summed in regulator technical staff fraction, which is multiplied by regulatory staff required in the regulator engineering staff required calculation.

The total staffing needed (regulatory staff required) is a based on the NRC, and includes base staffing independent of number of reactors, staffing for the number of NPPs being regulated including operational and under construction, and staffing for the number of license applications being processed. A multiplicative factor (regulatory other staff) is applied to account staffing required for other regulatory areas, such as waste generators and other users (medical, etc). Note the three inputs that come from the reactors module: Reactors.total_reactors, Reactors.total reactors under construction, and Reactors.total applications. The converters regulatory base staff, regulatory operating staff, regulatory licensing staff, and regulatory other staff contain the constants in the equation:

Technical staff = (33 + 18*operating reactors + 41*licenses)*1.24

Where 33 is the base capability and 1.24 accounts for waste and other users.

During phase 1, the model shows the base capability being hired (about 40 technical staff). The regulatory body increases staff during Phase 2 and Phase 3 to carry out the functions described earlier. When the NPP comes on line the required staff is less, unless additional units follow the completed unit.

Regulator workforce is lost through retirement. Since the regulatory workforce is drawn from the same workforce pool as the operating staff, it assumed that they retire at the same rate. The factor fraction retiring is ghosted from the nuclear workforce retirement calculation.

DataThe derivation of the staffing equation and the data used in the model for the regulatory body is shown on the Regulatory tab of the Workforce Data spreadsheet. The left columns (outlined in blue) contain data from documents on the US NRC website. These data include total staffing and budget data. From the budget data the fractions of the budget spent in each regulatory area can be calculated. The regulatory functions are broken down as Reactor Safety (76% of budget), which includes oversight and licensing, and Nuclear Materials and Waste (24% of budget), which includes fuel facilities, waste, and other users. The data also includes funding for the inspector general function, but this is not included in the analysis. The budget data by area is used to estimate the fraction of staff working in each area.

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In the center columns of the spreadsheet (outlined in green) is the analysis of the NRC workforce data. It is assumed that the distribution of workers by skill level follows the same fractions as used for the NPP, although instead of skilled and technicians, the technical workforce are all engineers. Thus, the workforce is assumed to be 4% semi-skilled, 2% management, and 94% professional. The technical areas needed are found from the NRC recruiting website, and are listed in column I of the spreadsheet. These are accounting, legal, Information Technology (IT), Investigators, Engineers, Scientists, Security, and Safeguards. It is assumed the total workforce is distributed across these technical areas as shown in Table 11. These fractions were reviewed by the US NRC and deemed a reasonable distribution. A further assumption is that the engineers are evenly distributed across the five engineering specialties discussed above (Nuclear, Electrical, Civil, Mechanical, and Chemical), and that the scientists are evenly distributed across nine specialties (Chemistry, physics, biology, physical sciences, materials, health physics, geology, hydrology, and seismology).

Table 11. Technical areas used in the regulatory body model with assumed staffing fractions.

Technical Area

Assumed Fractions

Accounting 5Legal 15IT 3Investigators 7Engineers 25Scientists 15Security 10Safeguards 20

The budget data further show that the reactor safety budget is 67% oversight and 33% licensing, while the Nuclear Materials and Waste budget is 22% fuel facilities, 41% waste, and 37% other users. These factors are combined to give the fraction of staff trained in each technical area working in each regulatory area.

The right section of the worksheet uses the above analysis to construct a model of the regulatory body. The staff working in reactor safety are parameterized to the current workload of the US NRC – oversight for 104 NPP and processing 22 license applications. The base capability is notional staffing for the core capability of the regulatory body. Finally, the workforce for waste and other users is found to be 24% of the reactor safety staff, which is carried as a multiplicative factor in the model. Using these factors, the regulatory body workforce is found to be

Technical staff = (33 + 18*operating reactors + 41*licenses)*1.24

While not included in the model directly, managerial staff and semi-skilled staff increase the total by 6% in addition to the technical staff.

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This calculation predicts for each phase of the nuclear power programme the staffing shown in Table 12. These values include waste and other users and management and semi-skilled staff. Note that the phase 1 staffing is consistent with the staffing suggested in Reference 6, and the peak staff is consistent with Reference 7.

Table 12. Staffing needs predicted by the regulatory body model.

StaffingPhase 1 43Phase 2 97Phase 3 120Operations 67

Topics for Development Modify the regulatory agency to reflect a workers career path (fixed career duration, movement

back to Engineer Workforce Pool, attrition). The NRC has 75% of its workforce as potentially non-engineers. Configure the model to include

non-engineering careers. Of particular interest are careers in science. The model for the regulatory body increases staff during phase 2 and 3 for licensing, but

requires fewer staff during operating. The model reduces the number over a long period though retirements. Change the model to move the excess workers back to the Engineering Workforce Pool.

Security workforce have a somewhat unique set of skill qualifications. Develop a model specifically for security workforce in both the operating organization and the regulatory body.

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3.8 Skilled Craft WorkforceThis section describes the model for skilled craft workforce. Skilled craft are workers with a trade school background in a specialization related to plant construction or maintenance. These workers are used in construction of the NPP and a smaller number form part of the operating staff.

The model for skilled craft workers differs from the model for operating workforce discussed above. For one, skilled craft workforce has its greatest demand during construction of the plant. Secondly, it is assumed there is a national pool of skilled craft workers that can be recruited for the NPP workforce, and that this pool is large enough that the number working at the NPP does not appreciably deplete this pool.

Note: some skilled craft require nuclear qualification to work on NPPs. Obtaining this qualification is not included in the model at this time.

The model for skilled craft labor includes boilermakers, carpenters, electricians, iron workers, insulators, laborers, masons, millwrights, painters, pipefitters, sheet metal workers, and teamsters. These areas typically require training in a trade school and are employed in many industries. In the nuclear power industry, construction of the NPP requires a large number of skilled craft workers. During NPP operation, a number of skilled craft workers are required to perform maintenance on the NPP.

Technical DetailsThe model for skilled craft workers is shown in Figure 28. Trade schools train a national workforce that is represented in the Craft Labor Pool. Workers are hired for construction of an NPP, which is represented by the top path in the figure. When the NPP is complete, most workers return to the Craft Labor Pool, represented by hiring for construction, which is a two-way flow. Some workers remain as part of the operating staff, moving to Craft Labor Operating Staff. Craft Labor Operating Staff is a conveyor retaining the workers for a set career length after which they retire. The flow craft labor replacing retired draws replacement workers directly from the national Craft Labor Pool. Finally, the model allows for workers leaving the Craft Labor Pool through retirement or other attrition (bottom).

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Trade School Craf t Labor Pool

entering craf t workf orce

Craf t Labor Building Plants

hiring f or construction

Craf t Labor Operating Staf f

craf t labor stay ing as operators

Retired Craf t Labor

craf t labor retiring

Retired f rom Craf t Pool

leav ing craf t pool

craf t labor replacing retired

Figure 28. The model for skilled craft labor.

The movement of workers from Craft Labor Pool to employment constructing NPPs is shown in Figure 29. Note that hiring for construction is a bi-directional flow. Workers being hired at the start of construction move from Craft Labor Pool to Craft Labor Building Plants. When a plant is complete, workers move the opposite direction. The number of workers being hired is the product of the number of plants starting construction and the number of workers of each type per plant. Reactors.reactor construction starting is the array of reactors from the NPP lifecycle module. Because estimates of construction workforce vary over a large range, the model allows for selection of two bounding values, peak construction staff or pess construction staff, as selected by construction switch. These are arrays of total on-site construction workers by plant type. To get the number of workers of each type per plant, craft for construction is multiplied by an array craft fraction per plant, which contains the fraction of staff in each craft area.

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Craf t Labor Pool



craf t f raction per plant

craf t being released

craf t f or construction

peak construction staf fReactors.reactor construction

starting

Reactors.reactor going on line

pess construction staf f construction staf f

Reactors.construction switch

Figure 29. The model for craft labor for NPP construction.

The number of workers returning to the Craft Labor Pool upon completion of construction is the number of plants being completed multiplied by the number of workers per plant minus the number of workers that remain as operating staff. Reactors.reactor going on line is the array of completed reactors linked from the NPP lifecycle module. Workers per plant is calculated the same as the hiring workforce, above.

Hiring for construction is calculated as the workers being hired (moving into Craft Labor Building Plants) minus workers being released (moving into Craft Labor Pool). In equation form:

ARRAYSUM(craft_for_construction[*])*craft_fraction_per_plant[Craft_Labor]/100-(ARRAYSUM(craft_being_released[*])*craft_fraction_per_plant[Craft_Labor]/100-craft_operations[Craft_Labor])

Note that craft fraction per plant is an array of Craft Labor, which distributes the workforce over the craft labor areas.

The number of workers released to the Craft Labor Pool when a plant is complete is the construction workforce for the plant minus craft operations, which are the craft workers that are retained as part of the operating staff, as shown in Figure 30. Craft for new plants is the product of Reactors.reactor going on line and ref staff size, multiplied by the skill area fraction for skilled workers. The sum of this array, total craft for new plants, is multiplied by craft operations to distribute the staff over the craft labor areas.

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Craf t Labor Pool



Craf t Labor Operating Staf f

craf t labor stay ing as operators

craf t operations

Reactors.reactor going on line Ref Staff Size


craf t operations f raction

craf t f or new plants

total craf t f or new plants

Figure 30. Craft labor is retained at the NPP as operating staff.

Craft Labor Operating Staff is a conveyor, indicating that once skilled workers are hired as operating staff they are considered to work for a fixed duration. This duration is craft operating career, as shown in Figure 31. These workers are replaced by drawing workers from Craft Labor Pool. Note that Craft Labor Retiring is the flow from Craft Labor Operating Staff to Retired Craft Labor, and is also the flow of replacement workers in craft labor replacing retired.

Craf t Labor Pool Craf t Labor Operating Staf f

Retired Craf t Labor

craf t labor retiring

craf t labor replacing retired

craf t operating career

Figure 31. Retirement of craft labor working in plant operations.

Finally, the model includes a path for loss of workers from the Craft Labor Pool, as shown in Figure 32. Craft attrition rate accounts for the rate at which workers change fields, while craft retirement rate is the overall rate at which workers retire. Both factors are currently set to zero.

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Craf t Labor Pool

Retired f rom Craf t Pool

leav ing craf t pool

craf t retirement rate

craf t attrition rate

Figure 32. Loss of workers from the craft labor pool due to retirement and attrition.

DataThe data required for the craft labor calculations are found on the craft labor tab in the Workforce Data spreadsheet. These data include the size of the construction staff and the distribution of workers across craft skill areas. As noted above, large variations in construction workforce can be found, and the model is constructed to evaluate the impact of this size rather than suggest which is correct. Thus, two factors are included; peak construction staff which indicates 1600 total on-site construction staff, and pessimistic construction staff, which has a value of 3200 total on-site construction staff.

Craft fraction per plant contains the percentage of the total workforce in each of the craft skill areas. These fractions were derived from the data in Reference 5 that gives one staffing approach for NPP construction. Craft operations fraction contains the percentage of workers in each skill area working at the NPP during operations. At this point, the data for craft operations fraction are notional values, set to be similar to the fractions during construction.

Topics for Further Development Allow the user to select a continuum of workforce sizes for construction. Model the nuclear qualification process needed by some trade craft workers.

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3.9 Educational SystemThe educational system is modeled to provide input to the workforce labor pools (Craft Labor Pool, Technician Workforce Pool, and Engineer Workforce Pool) and to allow the model to be used to estimate the number of students that need to be recruited into various educational programmes. The model is configured to look at the workforce holistically; all skill level and degree areas are included. The model is configured to allow inclusion of workforce dynamics starting from completion of high school through entry into the workforce pools. The model relies on national statistics for population and education. The model is based on the US educational system, and some modification may be required to properly represent other educational systems. See the glossary in Appendix II for definitions of the terms used here.

It is essential for those adapting the model to their country’s programme to ensure the model represents their educational system and how that system supports the nuclear power programme.

Technical detailsThe model for the educational system is shown in Figure 33. This can be found in the Workforce module, on the left side of the page, outlined with a red box. A simple model of the overall population is in the upper left corner of the model, which uses a national population growth factor to give the overall population over time. The Total Population, combined with the high school graduation rate, gives the High School Level Pool, which is contains the fraction of the population available to trade school and higher education. The High School Level Pool has seven career paths defined in the model, as described in Table 13.

The model structure is somewhat dictated by the data that is expected to be available. There should be national statistics on high school graduation, and the fractions of these that choose to continue to trade school or apprenticeship programmes, technical college (usually two-year degree programmes), and university (usually four-year degree programmes). For each of these paths, the fractions entering each nuclear-related field should be available.

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Higher Education

Trade School

High School Lev el Pool

entering career

Total Population

population growth

high school graduation rate

incoming people

entering nonEng univ

entering engineering program

entering trade school

nonNuc trades

entering nonNuc tech school

Technical College

entering technical college

other careers

Figure 33. The model of the educational system.

Table 13. Career paths from the High School Level Pool.

Flow variable name Career path descriptionother careers No post-high school education, and no trade school trainingnonNuc trades Entering trade school or apprentice programme in skill area

unrelated to the skills needed for the nuclear industryentering trade school Entering trade school or apprentice programme in skill area

related to the nuclear industryentering nonNuc tech school Entering a technical college study area unrelated to NPP

technician skill areasentering technical college Entering a technical college programme in one of the technician

skill areasentering nonEng univ Entering a university degree programme in a major area of

study unrelated to the degree areas used in nuclear power

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entering engineering program Entering a university degree programme in a major area of study related to nuclear power, including nuclear, electrical, mechanical, civil, and chemical engineering

The three career paths of interest to the nuclear industry, skilled craft, technician, and professional, correspond to a representation of the educational systems, trade schools and apprenticeship, technical school, and higher education. Trade school is modeled as a population that moves through to the Craft Labor Pool, and the duration of the training and attrition from the programme are not considered in the model. It is assumed that the number of skilled craft workers is large enough that these factors do not affect workforce planning, and attrition from the craft labor pool is not modeled. Technical College and Higher Education are conveyors with fixed duration and attrition is modeled.

In the model, the fractions of High School Level Pool following each educational level are specified by the four factors in the array professional path fractions. These factors are the fraction of all high school graduates that do not continue their education, enter a craft training programme or apprenticeship in any field, enter a technical college programme in any field, or enter a university degree programme in any field. These factors can be drawn from national educational statistics.

For the three educational paths, trade school, technical college programmes, and university degree programmes, the model distinguishes the fields of interest for nuclear power from all other fields. This is done by using arrays that contain the fractions of entering students that study each field of interest. The array trades nuclear fraction contains the fraction of students entering each of the 12 craft areas. Tech college fraction contains the fraction of all students entering technical college programmes that specialize in each of the seven technician specialties. Engineering university fractions contains the fraction of all students entering university programmes in each of the five engineering areas. The number of students entering trade school or apprenticeships in nuclear related trades is

professional_path_fractions[craftSchool]*trades_nuclear_fraction[Craft_Labor]*High_School_Level_Pool

The number of students entering technical college programmes related to nuclear power (entering junior college) is

tech_college_fractions[Technicians]*professional_path_fractions[juniorCollege]*High_School_Level_Pool

Similarly, entering engineering program is

professional_path_fractions[university]*engineering_university_fractions[Engineers]*High_School_Level_Pool

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The assumption that the craft workforce demand is small compared to the craft labor pool can be tested by inserting a converted to calculate the fraction of craft workers in a field that are employed in the nuclear industry. This has been done in fraction of craft labor.

The technical college and university degree programmes are each modeled with an attrition rate.

Testing the ModelTo verify that the model is working correctly, the user can check that the flows are properly balanced. In other words, the flows into High School Level Pool are equal to the flows out. This can easily be done by creating a converter to sum all flows (note some are arrays) out of High School Level Pool. Then create a table with the flow in (entering career) and the converter with the sum. These should be equal. (Note: set the table to report every DT.)

DataData for the educational model is drawn from national statistics and estimates from professional societies. These data should be reviewed for each country being modeled. The model estimates numbers of workers prepared for the workforce through various educational routes. The data needed are the rates at which high school graduates enter various career paths (trade schools and apprenticeships, technical college programmes, and university degree programmes), the rates at which those that choose a career path enter one of the fields relevant to nuclear power, and the fraction that succeed in completing their education.

Topics for Further Development The model assumes the educational system is established when the NP programme begins. This

is not necessarily true. Represent in the model the development of a national educational system to support a nuclear power programme.

The educational system as modeled here is unconstrained, meaning the system can accommodate any number of students required. This is not necessarily true, and the demand for workers may outpace the number of students the educational system can produce. How could the model be modified to represent an educational system with limitations?

The model of the educational system includes factors for recruitment into educational tracks and retention in degree programmes. In the current model these are treated as constants. A detailed model might be used to investigate approaches to improving these factors. One approach is to make these factors change over time to investigate the impact of recruitment and retention programmes on the workforce. A more detailed approach might seek to model the programmes themselves.

What other degree areas might be considered for employment in the nuclear power industry? How would they be incorporated into the model? Would their training path be different?

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3.10 Workforce Model Supporting CalculationsThis section contains descriptions of four calculations that support the workforce model. The results of these calculations are used to modify the flows in the workforce model, and are

Staffing before plant start up Workforce outsourcing Workforce attrition Workforce training

For each of these topics, the calculation will be described as well has how the results of that calculation are used in the workforce model. The discussion below will refer to elements in the workforce model as described above.

Staffing Before Plant Start UpThis calculation gives the number of operating staff hired per year prior to the start of operation of the plant. This calculation in the model must be able to adjust this hiring rate for variations in the length of licensing and construction. Three versions of a staffing curve prior to start up were found. See references 3, 6, and 8. These are reproduced in Figure 34.

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 20

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2-yr NPI4-yr NPIIAEA TotalGoodnight ConsO

pera

ting

Staff

Years before operation Operation

Figure 34. Three curves for staffing prior to plant start up. Note IAEA and Goodnight data include total plant staff, while NPI data are for technician and professional tracks only.

The start-up staffing calculation is shown in Figure 35. This can be found in the workforce module, in a red box to the right of the professional staffing track. Staffing rate during licensing and staffing rate during construction are the respective staff needed during licensing and during construction. These are added in staff for new plants, which feeds into the hiring engineers and hiring techs flows in the workforce model. Staffing rate during licensing and staffing rate during construction are calculated as the average staff hired per year over the licensing or construction periods. These depend on the two constants, licensing hiring fraction and construction hiring fraction, which are the fraction of total staff

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by skill level hired during the licensing and construction periods, respectively. These are arrays over skill level (manager, professional, technician, skilled, and semi-skilled).

Reactors.applications

Reactors.application approval time

plant staf f size ref erence staf f size

Reactors.sum reactors under construction

size f actor

Reactors.construction time

op staf f application

op staf f construction

licensing hiring f raction

construction hiring f raction

staf f ing rate during licensing

staf f ing rate during construction

staf f f or new plants


Figure 35. Calculation of staffing during NPP licensing and construction.

The calculations in staffing rate during licensing and staffing rate during construction are

Total staff for plant operations*Fraction of total hired during period/duration of period

This is then multiplied by the array skill area fractions, which distributes the staff across skill levels. To get the total staff for plant operations, reference staff size is multiplied by the size factor (see workforce calculation above). This is then multiplied by the number of plants in licensing or under construction, and is brought into the calculation as a sum across plant types to give the total operating staffing for the plants being licensed or under construction. Note that the number of reactors in licensing and construction, as well as the duration of licensing and construction are brought from the reactors model.

DataThe data required for the calculation of staffing during NPP start-up is derived from the curves in Figure 1. This derivation is found in the start-up tab of the workforce data spreadsheet. Complicating the calculation of these factors is that multiple data sets are available and that these do not necessarily agree. Currently the values from NPI are used, as they distinguish between technical college and university degrees. The NPI data specify hiring more operating staff during the licensing period than do

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the IAEA or Goodnight data. The values used are the fraction of operating staff hired during licensing and during construction.

Topics for Further Development Adapt the model to show subsequent units, drawing some staff from first plant.

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Workforce OutsourcingA major decision for a nuclear power programme is how much of the workforce is hired directly by the operator and how much is outsourced. From a national perspective, it is important if the outsourced workforce comes from domestic or foreign sources. The NPHR model includes a module to investigate these options. The outsourcing calculation allows the user to select between five outsourcing strategies and vary the fraction of the outsourced workforce that comes from domestic rather than foreign origins.

The outsourcing calculation is found in the workforce module, in a sub-module entitled Outsourcing located to the lower right of the engineering workforce calculation. As shown in Figure 36, the model within this module selects between outsourcing options. The outsourcing fractions are contained in the four converters on the left side. These converters contain the fraction of workforce by process area that is outsourced in each of four strategies. The fifth strategy is outsourcing none of the workforce. The five converters across the top of the figure are the controls from the switches found on the interface for selecting between the options. These converters output logic 1 for the switch selected and 0 for the others, so the selection in outsourcing out is a multiplication of the switch output with the outsourcing fractions. The factor domestic outsourcing fraction is the input from the slider control on the interface which gives a fraction from 0 to 1. This is multiplied by outsourcing out to give the domestic and foreign worker fractions.

None

Agressiv e Outsourcing Fractions

Standard Outsourcing Fractions

Euro 1 Outsourcing Fractions

Euro 2 Outsourcing Fractions

outsourcing outdomestic outsourcing f raction

domestic outsourcing

f oreign outsourcing

Standard Agressiv e Euro 1 Euro 2

Figure 36. Calculation of outsourcing fractions for operating workforce.

The factor foreign outsourcing is used to reduce the engineering and technician staff being hired from the domestic labor pool. This is done outside the Outsourcing module. Foreign outsourcing is factored into the workforce calculations as described above.

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DataThe data required for this calculation are the fraction by process area that may be outsourced. These fractions are shown in Table 14 as percentage of operating staff (reference 3), and can be found in the Outsourcing tab of the workforce data spreadsheet. These percentages are converted to fraction of staff by process area, which are the values imported as outsourcing fractions.

Table 14. Outsourcing strategies as percent of total staff. See Reference 3. The data have been reordered from the original to group by process area.

Process Area Function Standard Aggressive Euro-1 Euro-2Operate the Plant

Chemistry 1 0 7 3Environmental 3 0 0 60Operations 0 0 0 0Operations Support 1 0 0 0

Equipment ReliabilityEngineering - Computer 1 0 0 29Engineering - Plant 1 0 9 17Engineering - Technical 3 0 0 27QC/NDE 0 0 0 16

Materials and servicesContracts 2 100 9 0Materials Mgt 6 100 0 20Purchasing 2 100 9 0Warehouse 1 16 38 7

Support Svcs &trainingAdmin/Clerical 7 80 33 5Budget/Finance 1 0 0 2Communications 0 0 0 0Document Control 0 100 38 43Facilities 71 100 100 50Human Resources 18 0 0 40Information Mgt 13 100 0 22Management 0 3 0 0Management Assist 5 0 0 0Training 1 5 32 54

Work ManagementALARA 0 0 0 0HP Applied 0 20 0 15HP Support 0 0 0 41Maint/Construction 7 37 37 23

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Maint/Constr Support 18 88 53 71Outage Management 4 0 0 0Project Management 12 0 0 9Radwaste/Decon 23 0 32 48Scheduling 4 82 0 0


Design/Drafting 4 100 50 33Engineering - Mods 5 0 0 23Engineering - Procurement 0 100 0 10Engineering - Reactor 0 0 0 39Nuclear Fuels 0 0 0 40

Loss PreventionEmergency Prep 3 0 0 80Fire Protection 9 0 25 23Licensing 2 0 0 14Nuclear Safety Review 0 0 9 0QA 0 9 20 15Safety/Health 14 80 17 11

Topics for additional development Represent in the model a strategy for relying on foreign operating staff initially and transitioning

to domestic workforce over time. Allow the initial outsourcing fraction and the time for transition to be variable by the user.

Add an additional outsourcing strategy to allow a user defined case.

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Workforce AttritionThe workforce model includes loss of workers to retirement. Understanding the impact of retirement on the workforce is important. Many countries find their workforce (in nuclear power and other fields) to have an age distribution such as that in Figure 37, where there are many more workers approaching retirement age than there are in the early years of their career. This is a concern for many reasons. For one, it means the operating organization needs to be prepared to hire to replace a significant part of the staff in the coming years. If the candidate pool is limited in size, the operator will have to be less selective in the quality of candidate being considered. In losing the senior staff, the operator also loses operating experience, and with it the opportunity to retain organizational knowledge.

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 590

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Worker Age

Num

ber

of w

orke

rs

Figure 37. Typical workforce age distribution.

The model has an age distribution for the workforce at the start of the simulation. In general, new workers enter the workforce at a young age and older workers leave the workforce as they retire. A simple modeling approach would be to treat the workforce as a conveyor. However, the conveyor does not allow for variation in hiring age, variation in duration of working career, and variation in retirement age. Instead, the model uses an array of age bands and assumes both a rate of hiring and a rate of loss as workers move between bands. The overall attrition rate is used in the workforce calculation for workers retiring.

The workforce attrition calculation is found in the workforce module to the right of the professional workforce model. There are two sections to the attrition calculation, one for the engineering workforce and one for the technician workforce. The workforce attrition calculation has a structure parallel to the workforce model with stocks for the workforce pool, nuclear workforce, and specialized workforce, as shown in Figure 38. These stocks are arrays of age intervals rather than skill level sand process areas as in the workforce model. Thus, Workforce Pool Age contains the same total number of workers as Engineering Workforce Pool. The calculation for technicians is similar, so only the calculation for engineers will be described here.

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Specialized Workf orce Pool Age

age entering specialized training

Nuclear Workf orce Age

specialized employ ed age

Workf orce Pool Age

enter workf orce age

workf orce retired Retired by Age

age attrition

Specialized Workf orce Age

specialized WF age transition

eng release age in

specialized workf orce age transition

age transition workf orce

specialized WF retiring age

specialized released age

specialized WF pool retire

Figure 38. The workforce age progression calculation.

The flows in the workforce age calculation are set to match the flows in the workforce calculation, as shown in Figure 39. The ghosted converters engineers released and hiring engineers are the flows from Engineer Workforce Pool and Nuclear Workforce in the workforce model. The calculation in enter workforce age is

IF(ARRAYSUM(Workforce_Pool_Age[*]) > 10) THEN(ARRAYSUM(hiring_engineers[*,*])*Workforce_Pool_Age[AgeInterval]/ARRAYSUM(Workforce_Pool_Age[*]))

ELSE 0

The IF-THEN structure prevents Workforce Pool Age from going to zero. The argument in the THEN branch distributes hiring engineers across all age intervals in Workforce Pool Age.

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hiring engineers

Nuclear Workf orce AgeWorkf orce Pool Age

enter workf orce age

eng release age in

engineers released

Figure 39. Flows of workers in the age calculation mirror the flows in the workforce model.

In each of these stocks, the contents are distributed across an array of age intervals. Each interval contains the workers in a five-year age band, 20-24, 25-29, etc. The age transition pool flow is a bi-directional flow that moves workers between age intervals. Since the age intervals are 5-year bands, each year 1/5 of the workers in each interval move to the next age interval. When workers exit the oldest working band, they are removed from the workforce via pool retired age. In the model it is assumed that workers retire at 60 years of age, an assumption that can be adjusted for application to other programmes. Leave pool age accounts for all other attrition, such as career changes, and distributes those evenly across all age intervals. The second from bottom branch, regulatory age transition, removes from the pool those workers continuing to higher education and those going to work for the regulatory body.

Each of the other stocks in the workforce age calculation has flows similar to those in Figure 40 for Workforce Pool Age. Thus, Nuclear Workforce Age has age attrition, age transition workforce and workforce retired. Similar flows can be found for Specialized Workforce Age and Specialized Workforce Pool Age.

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pool retired age

age transition pool

high grad age dist

Workf orce Pool Age

high education

leav e pool ageleave pool

regulatory age transition

hiring engineers for regulator

entering engineer pool

pursuing advanced degree

Figure 40. Flows for moving workers between age intervals and for attrition are connected to Workforce Pool Age.

For every source of worker entering Workforce Pool Age, the flow in requires an age distribution. The source of workforce is higher education, providing graduates of university degree programmes. As shown in Figure 3 on the bottom branch, the addition of these graduates to the workforce pool is weighted by high grad age dist, which contains the assumed distribution of ages for new graduates.

DataThe initial age distribution for workers at a US operator is shown in Figure 15, above. This curve is assumed to be representative of the workforce age distribution in most established programmes, but should be verified and modified if necessary for a new programme. These data are in the Workforce Data spreadsheet on the Engineers tab. The data are binned in five-year age groups (20-24, 25-29, etc.) and imported into the model as the array initial workforce age fractions. This distribution is assumed for all workforce regardless of skill level.

The other factors in the workforce attrition calculation are assumptions on the age distribution for graduates of technical college and university degree programmes as they enter the nuclear workforce.

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These assumptions are shown in Table 1 and appear in the Education tab on the Workforce Data spreadsheet.

Table 15. Data for the workforce age calculation.

Variable 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59high_grad_age_dist 0.9 0.08 0.02 0 0 0 0 0tech_grad_age_dist 0.9 0.08 0.02 0 0 0 0 0initial_workforce_age_fractions 2.71 10.51 10.92 10.96 16.38 22.58 17.89 8.05

Specialized TrainingWorkers at NPPs often receive specialized training in skills that increase their value to the operating organization. For example, expertise in safeguards is an important skill usually acquired by taking a special training course. Workers who receive such training may move into essential work functions at the NPP, and provide leadership to the balance of the workforce.

From a modeling perspective, this section illustrates an approach to analyzing sub-populations of the workforce.

Specialized workforce is treated in the model as a sub-set of the NPP workforce. As shown in Figure 41, workers in Nuclear Workforce move to Engineers with Specialized Training via the Engineers in Specialized Training conveyor. The duration of this conveyor is characteristic of the time required for the training. Engineers with Specialized Training has the same workforce dynamics elements as described for Nuclear Workforce; attrition, retirement, and return to the workforce pool are handled in the same manner as Nuclear Workforce.

Nuclear Workf orce

Engineers in Specialized Training

Engineers with Specialized Training

completing specialized training

entering specialized training

specialized engineers released

Specialized Engineer Workf orce Poolspecialized engineers rehired

training opportunities

training duration

Figure 41. Model of specialized training in the nuclear workforce.

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One particular issue addressed in the specialized training calculation is access to training. The factor training opportunities controls the number of workers that take training. In some areas there are only opportunities for a small number of workers to take training each year. The training opportunities control, which is adjusted on the interface, allows the user to make assumptions about the number of workers taking training.

Note that entering specialized training is an array across process areas, while Engineers in Specialized Training is not an array. Currently, workers with specialized training are treated as independent of process area.

DataFor these calculations, the workforce trained over time based on assumptions of opportunity for training is compared to the demand for workforce desiring/needing this training. In the staffing tab of the Workforce Data spreadsheet to the far right is a table of job functions cross referenced with safeguards core capabilities. To the right of the table, the fraction of staff that performs a job function related to safeguards is tabulated and summed. This fraction is taken as the demand for training, and appears in the model as safeguards fraction. This fraction represents those workers that perform a job function requiring the training or those that may wish to take the training for career advancement.

Topics for development Safeguards expertise may be more specific to some process areas than others. Modify the

model to reflect this. How would the model be modified to account for additional training? One approach would be to

create a parallel logic structure to track trained staff, similar to the structure that tracks age distribution.

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Appendix I: References

1. Milestone in the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power, IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NG-T-3.1.

2. Nuclear Power Plant Organization and Staffing for Improved Performance: Lessons Learned, IAEA-TECHDOC-1052, 1998, p47-50

3. Current Workforce Requirements for Nuclear Power Plants in the USA. Goodnight Consulting, presented at IAEA Technical Meeting “Workforce Planning to Support New Nuclear Power Programmes.” March 31-April 2 2009.

4. Does the UK have the skills for a nuclear future? Joanna Woolf, COGENT5. MPR, “DOE NP2010 Nuclear Power Plant Construction Infrastructure Assessment”, MPR-2776

(2005) 6. Workforce Planning For New Nuclear Power Programmes, IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NG-T-

3.10. P247. IAEA NG-T-3.3 p128. Nuclear Power Institute9.

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Appendix II: GlossaryAttrition: the loss of personnel from an organization through retirement, resignation, termination or death.

Authorization: The granting by a regulatory body or other governmental body of written permission for an operator to perform specified activities. Authorization could include, for example, licensing, certification or registration.

Certification – The process by which an authoritative organization/body provides written endorsement of the satisfactory achievement of competence of an individual; can follow the satisfactory completion of a performance-based training programme or of a theoretical course of study.

Craftsmen: the workforce that is typically involved in construction projects and plant maintenance, such as: boilermakers, pipe fitters, carpenters, masons, electricians, painters, laborers, millwrights, iron workers, truck drivers, heavy equipment operators). These workers typically trained through a trade school or apprentice programme

Engineers: those technical positions in the nuclear power industry that require a degree (typically four years)in science or engineering (e.g., design engineers, licensing engineers, plant engineers, shift supervisors/managers, chemists, safety analysts, regulatory inspectors)

High School: the (generally) mandatory schooling that the general population receives (commonly 12 years of education)

International Experts: individuals with expert level competencies in a specialized nuclear field, who typically come from abroad for new nuclear power programme as these nuclear specialties are not provided in the country.

Labor Pool: the national workforce that is qualified for a career path such as nuclear engineers.

License Renewal: extending the operating life of an NPP or other nuclear facility beyond that approved for the original operating license (e.g., from 40 years to 60 years).

Licensing of Nuclear Power Plants: The NPHR Model is based on the Combined License (COL) approach of the USNRC. Each country with nuclear power has its own national laws/regulations regarding the licensing process. A number of these countries use a two step process whereby a construction permit/license is first provided, and then when construction is completed a separate operating license is granted. Whether a combined license or two-step license approach is taken the work done by the Nuclear Regulatory Body is basically the same in either case.

Nuclear industry workforce: includes construction workers, operations staff, and regulatory body staff.

Nuclear Energy Programme Implementing Organization (NEPIO): a group formed to study the feasibility of embarking on a nuclear power programme. The NEPIO is generally formed for Phase 1, and then transfers all or most of its responsibilities to the Operating Organization and Nuclear Regulatory Body when they are created/identified in Phase 2.

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Nuclear Regulatory Body: The organization(s) that license nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities and set standards for exposure to ionizing radiation. In some countries this is a single organization and in other countries responsibilities are divided among 2 or more organizations. In this model there is a single nuclear regulatory body.

Operating Organization – An organization authorized by a Regulatory Authority or Body to operate a nuclear power plant or other nuclear facility. See Operation.

Operating Personnel – Personnel involved in the operation or maintenance of equipment, plant or a system. See Operation.

Outsourcing: tasks that need to be performed by organizations that are contracted to an outside supplier.

Outsourcing Foreign: tasks that need to be performed in the nuclear industry that are contracted out to a foreign supplier.

Phase 1 (of the IAEA Milestones Approach): the first phase of planning a nuclear power programme which involves considerations before a decision to launch a nuclear power programme is taken. Phase 1 culminates in Milestone 1: Ready to make a knowledgeable commitment to a nuclear power programme

Phase 2 (of the IAEA Milestones Approach): Preparatory work for the construction of a nuclear power

plant after a policy decision has been taken. . Phase 2 culminates in Milestone 2: Ready to invite bids for the first nuclear power plant.

Phase 3 (of the IAEA Milestones Approach): Activities to implement a first nuclear power plant. . Phase 3 culminates in Milestone 3: Ready to commission and operate the first nuclear power plant.

Process Area: seven work areas related to the operations phase for a nuclear power plant: operate the plant, equipment reliability, materials and services, support services and training, work management, configuration management, loss prevention

Qualified Person – An individual providing evidence of, or in lawful possession of, a Qualification. See Qualification.

Qualification – A formal statement that an individual possesses the education, training and experience required to meet specified job performance requirements. A formal statement of competence. The qualification may enable an individual to work independently, depending on local and national policies. See Competence.

Retirement Age: the age at which nuclear industry personnel retire from the workforce. In some countries there is a statutory retirement age and in others it is an individual decision.

Specialized Training: training conducted in order for personnel to qualify for specialized assignments (e.g., configuration management, equipment reliability, operations, loss prevention, work planning)

Staff: a general term to encompass all types of workers at a plant

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Technicians: those technical jobs for which a four-year degree in science or engineering is not a requirement (e.g., in the USA for instrument technicians, radiation protection technicians, mechanical maintenance personnel, chemistry technicians, draftsman, NDT technicians, field operators)

Technical College Dropout Rate: The percentage of students entering a two-year technical education programme who do not complete it.

Technical College; An educational organization that specializes in educating technicians. Such technical schools do not generally award bachelors or graduate degrees, or if they do, these graduate programme are separate from the degrees awarded to technicians. Generally a two-year programme after high school, or a separate track in high school with additional job-specific education after high school.

Technical Support Organizations: Those organizations that provide technical support to nuclear power plants or other nuclear facilities in areas such as: materials science, radiation protection, reactor physics, maintenance and engineering, outage management, personnel training, licensing, and safety analysis.

Trade School: school to train craftsmen in their trades (e.g., carpenter, electrician, welder) . For the purposes of the NPHR model these include apprenticeship programmes.

Training Programme Dropout Rate: The percentage of students entering a training programme (such as for control room operators) who do not complete it

Systematic Approach to Training – A training approach that provides a logical progression from the identification of the competences/competencies required to perform a job to the development and implementation of training to achieve these competences/competencies, and subsequent evaluation of this training. Often referred to by the acronym SAT.

University: An educational organization that award bachelors and graduate degrees. In the nuclear industry individuals who fill positions such as engineers, scientists, or other professional positions are university graduates.

University Dropout Rate: The percentage of students entering a four-year education programme who do not complete it.

Work force planning: The process that identifies or anticipates vacant positions and the required staffing levels and skills to ensure the retention of institutional knowledge and critical skills and competences to support future business strategies.

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Appendix III: Nuclear Power Plant Operations Staffing

There are multiple ways to describe the workforce that operates a nuclear power plant. In this appendix, the descriptions from the instructions for the IAEA global HR survey are given which has six categories of job positions.

1) Operations

2) Maintenance

3) Radiation Protection

4) Engineering

5) Site Support

6) Oversight/Regulatory

The categories used in the NPHR model follow a slightly different grouping, but can be mapped to this scheme. This mapping can be found in the Workforce Data spreadsheet.

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NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAMME PERSONNEL CATEGORIES AND JOB DESCRIPTIONS

OPERATIONS

Operations All activities associated with preparing and placing systems and components in and out of service (e.g., tag-outs and clearances) to support normal and off-normal system operations and actions required to maintain the plant in a safe operating condition in all modes of operation. Includes plant walk downs and inspections, plant problem identification (generation of a trouble ticket), and maintenance of operations logs, reports and records regarding equipment performance. Includes routine system and component lineup changes; actions required to address abnormal occurrences (including reducing power or removing and restoring the unit to service); routine actions required for fuel burn up (i.e., dilution at a PWR or control rod sequence exchanges at a BWR); fuel shuffling and actions required to maintain the plant in a safe operating condition in all modes of operation. Includes on-shift staff and supervisors responsible for operating primary, secondary and liquid radwaste systems; if performed by shift staff, includes preparing or reviewing responses to operating events and associated inquiries from other organizations. Includes Shift Technical Advisors.

Operations Support All activities associated with functions to support Plant Operations. This function includes non-shift personnel supporting the operations staff, including functions supporting work control through Operations. This includes dedicated procedure writers, ops / work control clearance orders, training coordinators, corrective action programme coordination, root cause investigators, non-modification project management, and technical specialists. Includes persons in licensed operator training classes.

Environmental Includes all activities associated with establishing and maintaining environmental programmes and monitoring the environment. Also includes persons responsible for the non-radiological environmental monitoring programmes and related requirements, audits, and thermal monitoring.

Chemistry All activities associated with establishing and maintaining chemistry programme, monitor and control plant chemistry, and managing chemical use and safety programme to maintain component integrity and optimize plant efficiency. Also includes collecting and processing analytical chemistry samples and preparing reports. Includes chemistry technicians for normal and emergency shift functions such as chemical additions and chemical/radiochemical analyses. Also includes persons coordinating all aspects of chemistry programme and providing guidance on chemistry standards; conducting evaluations of plant chemistry programmes; and addressing and resolving chemistry operating problems. Also includes staff responsible for radioactive effluents programme.

MAINTENANCE

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Maintenance Planning All activities associated with work order planning (outage and non-outage). This includes job package development, assembling, completing and review documentation associated with the maintenance effort. This also includes detailed planning required to maintain all structures, systems and components in optimum condition and any formal evaluations required to support this activity.

Maintenance & Construction Support All activities associated with the support of the work of maintenance/construction craft. non-engineering degreed maintenance technical experts; non-engineering degreed persons developing maintenance strategies and resolving maintenance rules issues; personnel coordinating with plant engineers on the development of corrective maintenance procedures and other technical matters; and maintenance procedure writers. Also includes personnel who support plant modification work such as coordination of contract laborers, cost and scheduling estimates.

Scheduling All activities associated with the performance of scheduling. Includes the scheduling of outages, corrective, preventive and plant improvement maintenance and surveillance and performance testing. This activity also includes the scheduling of all related supporting tasks such as clearance application/removal, scaffold erection/removal, radiological protection and industrial safety. Includes persons who schedule non-refueling outage work activities. Also includes coordinating with maintenance, construction management, and engineering for daily schedule review and update.

Outage Management All activities associated with planning and coordinating all outage activities. Includes central contact point for refueling and maintenance outage planning and management, and forced outage management. Includes dedicated outage work window managers.

Project Management All activities associated with direct control and monitoring contractors and in-house design packages and other work in support of engineering functions. This includes processes required to ensure design changes are justified based on the value, safety, reliability and efficiency. Reviews products to ensure high quality work. Participates in developing bid packages. Establishes and monitors milestone schedules for assigned work. Also assists in reviewing contractor proposals and recommending contract award. Coordinates resolution of technical questions directed to, or originated by contractors.

Electrical Maintenance All activities associated with electrical maintenance and construction work within the power block. This includes routine electrical preventive maintenance, corrective maintenance, predictive maintenance, and fix-it now maintenance activities on plant components. It also includes major and minor modifications. It includes the staging/acquiring of parts, the actual performance of the work, pre & post

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maintenance testing, cleanup of job site during and after work, documentation closeout (signatures and delivery for storage)

Instrumentation & Controls (I&C) Maintenance

All activities associated with I&C maintenance and construction work within the power block. This includes routine I&C preventive maintenance, corrective maintenance, predictive maintenance, and fix-it now maintenance activities on plant components. It also includes major and minor modifications. It includes the staging/acquiring of parts, the actual performance of the work, pre & post maintenance testing, cleanup of job site during and after work, documentation closeout (signatures and delivery for storage).

Mechanical Maintenance All activities associated with mechanical maintenance and construction work within the power block. This includes routine Mechanical preventive maintenance, corrective maintenance, predictive maintenance, and fix-it now maintenance activities on plant components. It also includes major and minor modifications. It includes the staging/acquiring of parts, the actual performance of the work, pre & post maintenance testing, cleanup of job site during and after work, documentation closeout (signatures and delivery for storage).

Other Craft/Tool room/Calibration All activities associated with other craft (utility, painters, HVAC, crane, insulators, and coaters). All activities associated with the tool room. Includes personnel performing metrology activities. Includes tool control and tool room activities, consumable/free issue management, and records maintenance.

RADIATION PROTECTION

Radiation Protection All activities associated with providing radiation exposure control and contamination control. Includes establishing and monitoring health physics programme, controlling and monitoring personnel work and their work locations, performing activities necessary to maintain ALARA (shielding, respiratory protection, calculations, stay times, radiation work permits, etc.). Includes personnel responsible for technical oversight of health physics programme. Includes persons involved with respiratory protection, radiological environmental and dosimetry programmes. Also includes controlling and monitoring contaminated areas of plant, and providing decontamination services. Includes waste and decontamination radiation protection services. Includes radiation protection technicians involved with such activities as routine and special surveys, and data reading and analysis. Also includes persons collecting and analyzing radiation system samples.

Radwaste All activities associated with treatment, measurement, control, collection, compaction, storage, filtration, ion exchange, and other processing, reporting, handling, shipping, disposing of low-level waste

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and effluents. Includes liquid radwaste, gaseous radwaste, dry active radwaste, hazardous waste, mixed waste, industrial solid waste, industrial air emissions and non-radioactive liquid effluents.

ENGINEERING

Design/Modification/Technical Engineering

All activities associated with design/modification/technical engineering services, and ensure design integrity for:

Civil/Structural Engineering, including site buildings, roads, bridges, and waterfront structure. Performs soils and foundations analyses, and reviews and approves hanger and support locations. Provides stress analysis and support evaluation services. Provides architecture and site layout services.

Electrical/I&C Engineering including high, medium and low voltage distribution systems (including DC and instrument power), related components (including motors, circuit breakers, transformers, batteries, chargers and inverters) and instrumentation and control systems and components.

Mechanical Engineering including primary, secondary, and auxiliary systems, and associated components including piping, insulation and hangers.

All activities associated with the development of design changes. Performs manual and computer-aided design engineering functions. Resolves field questions, and maintains piping and instrument diagrams and electric power line diagrams. Prepares stress isometrics.

All activities associated with technical engineering issues. Includes providing technical support to modification engineers and plant/system engineers, and provides research and analysis of technical engineering issues. Also includes disposition of non-conformances and other assigned items. Responds to design basis and configuration control issues and questions. Serves as technical consultants on engineering issues. Responds to technical inquiries and information requests from internal and external sources. Responsible for engineering services and key programmes in specialized technical areas not included in other engineering functions, such as equipment qualification, configuration management, in-service inspection, fire protection engineering, and probabilistic risk assessment. Ensures design integrity for assigned specialized areas.

Plant Computer Engineering All activities associated with hardware and software engineering for supporting plant process computers, radiation monitoring systems, and other operational /support computers and systems. Includes personnel who provide similar services for the training simulators. This function does not include those positions supporting operation and maintenance of the supporting network and mainframe infrastructure, such as: resource management, telecommunications, network services, mainframe, desktop services, and enterprise applications.

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Plant/Systems/Maintenance Engineering All activities associated with development of a long term planning and life cycle management strategy and maintenance plan to establish, maintain and analyze information related to the condition and efficiency of structures, systems and components, the administration of preventive, predictive maintenance programmes and thermal performance monitoring programme. Includes surveillance testing programme, in-service inspections (ISI) and in-service tests (IST), calibrating/cataloging /maintaining/testing equipment (M&TE), and any engineering evaluations in support of testing requirements or evaluating results. Includes post maintenance testing, writing of procedures, documentation closeout maintaining logs, reports and records regarding equipment performance to determine conditions adverse to quality. Also includes System Health Assessment and Reporting.

Non-destructive Examination (NDE) All activities associated with the non-destructive examination programme in support of engineering, maintenance and modifications. Examples include radiography, ultrasonic, eddy current, liquid penetrant and magnetic particle examinations to identify, ensure and/or verify component and/or equipment integrity. Includes ASME Code, safety related and balance of plant activities

Nuclear Fuels/Reactor Engineering All activities associated with performing and/or reviewing reload safety evaluation, reload design analyses, and thermal, hydraulic and transient analyses. Provides support to operations for core analysis. Supports fuel licensing and fuel management activities. Includes personnel who manage and monitor the nuclear fuel acquisition process.

All activities associated with analyzing fuel performance, performing core performance monitoring and trending, and providing support and technical direction to operations during refueling, startup and shutdown. This includes developing core designs, providing safety analysis calculations and support, monitoring fuel performance, and providing strategies for reactivity management.

All activities associated with the provision and transportation of fuel, including contract negotiations, contract administration and transportation

All activities associated with receiving and storing new fuel, storage analyses, managing spent fuel shipping and storage, cask fleet, irradiated channel disposal, developing dry storage contingency and disposing of spent fuel.

SITE SUPPORT

Materials Management/Warehousing All activities associated with inventory planning, inventory control and optimization, the development of inventory management control policies/procedures and the identification of unneeded inventory and scrap materials.

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All activities relating to receipt, inspection, storage, counting, distribution, issuance and shipping of equipment and materials. All activities associated with on-site receipt, inspection and reservation, warehouse storage (identification, tracking and stock level maintenance) and distribution of materials prior to use. Includes receipt/dispatch of materials, warehouse operation handling and storage, packaging reduction, initial issuing of equipment and materials, handling and storage of nuclear grade materials, bulk gasses and chemicals. Also includes all activities associated with onsite and offsite repairs, refurbishment and returns including quality control activities and disposition of discrepant repaired, refurbished and returned materials.

Contracts & Purchasing All activities associated with contract services and the evaluation and procurement of materials and services. Includes developing, negotiating and monitoring service contracts from outside agencies/vendors. Also includes processing and administration of purchase requisitions, purchase orders and internal supply request, contracts and leases. Includes expediting materials, filing claims for damage, resolution of shipping discrepancies, life cycle cost planning, decisions to make/buy, the standardization of materials/variety reduction and customer contact/service. Also includes activities associated with the planning, development of contracting and leasing strategies, market intelligence and performance, and strategic sourcing of materials and services. Includes other functions in support of procurement (e.g. commercial grade dedication, procurement engineering and quality related receipt inspection). Includes other functions in the support of periodic nuclear vendor qualification and oversight related to procurement.

Procurement Engineering All activities associated with qualification and technical specifications of plant materials, parts, and equipment. This includes parts substitution, the identification and resolution of supplier non-conformance, commercial parts dedication testing and like-for like replacement analysis.

Information Technology All activities related to planning, development, maintenance and operation of the company’s information systems (enterprise, departmental, individual). This includes the operation and maintenance of the supporting network and mainframe infrastructure. Also included are planning, designing, constructing, operating and maintaining telecommunications facilities and equipment, electronic mail services, and providing telecommunications consulting services. Also includes administrative oversight of maintaining the plant process computer and digital embedded devices. (Recommended major sub-accounts include: resource management, telecommunications, network services, mainframe, desktop services, applications and process computer). Does not include activities associated with software and hardware engineering for plant process computers and digital embedded devices. Includes corporate related Information technology expenses associated with nuclear to support corporate infrastructure tools / applications / processes (payroll, employee benefits, etc.) not 100 % dedicated to nuclear operations.

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Business Services Business services activities include all activities associated with the financial management of the business. This also includes activities for corporate allocations.

There are two primary aspects to business services, strategic and tactical. Nuclear asset management activities are strategic and include strategic planning, generation planning (including decommissioning), long-range planning, project evaluation, and fleet valuation.

Other business services activities are tactical and include planning, budgeting, accounting, reporting, and assessment. These include the following activities: perform planning and management accounting, perform planning/budgeting/forecasting, perform cost accounting and control, perform cost management, evaluate and manage financial performance, perform general accounting and reporting, perform capital project accounting (property accounting), process accounts payable and expense reimbursements, manage payroll taxes, measure organizational performance and benchmarking, manage internal controls Business services costs include executive discretionary funds used for activities not associated with a specific process. All activities associated with preparing financial/regulatory statements, including maintaining fuel, tax and joint owner data; providing accounting research and cost reporting data; analyzing fixed asset records; controlling fixed asset accounting system reporting; processing invoices; administering company payroll; and maintaining subsidiary ledgers. Also includes severance and retirement incentives, managing the workers compensation self-insured programme, administering claims for the organization and performing loss control analysis. Preparing and filing claims on permanent and non-permanent plant equipment including loss control analysis, and compiling costs associated with losses for insurers, and all legal activities unrelated to regulatory activities. Cost for non-required property and personal liability insurance (operating equipment failure, excess liability, property damage, etc.) should also be included. Benchmarking of processes should be charged against the subject process.

Records Management & Procedures All activities associated with processing records to ensure they are legible, identifiable and retrievable by establishing and complying with procedures that provide for their collection, review indexing, distribution, protection and disposition. This includes dedicated procedure writers. Publishing and maintaining guidelines, approval documents, processes, programmes, procedures, manuals and the maintenance of revisions, files and distribution lists. This includes typing, word processing and other software applications, keying, filing, records support, library support, microfilming, reproduction and fax services, graphics, mail processing, and other administrative support that cannot be directly related to a specific activity such as maintaining office supplies (inventory and ordering), furniture (inventory and ordering), air charter reservations, conference room reservations. All “pooled” clerical and procedure writing groups should be allocated to the activity they are supporting.

Human Resources

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All activities associated with providing compensation and benefits, workforce planning, organizational development, performance management, employee/labor relations and human resource management. Compensation and benefits consists of compensation review, development of job competencies, position descriptions, benefits, and incentive programmes. Workforce planning consists of needs analysis, recruitment and staffing, supplemental workforce planning, retention, succession planning, diversity management, compliance, HR information systems inputs, displacement, redeployment and HR-related community relations. Organizational development consists of organizational culture (including safety culture), change management, leadership development, first line supervisor development, employee development, and organizational design. Performance management includes performance planning and review (setting individual performance goals, measures, monitoring performance, and providing feedback), employee recognition, coaching/mentoring and the discipline process. Employee/labor relations consists of employee feedback/surveys, management feedback, employee issues identification, ,investigations and resolution, labor strategy, corporate OSHA/safety, wellness, medical, EAP, nuclear employee concerns (including Safety Conscious Work Environment), quality of life and conflict resolution. Human resource management consists of HR administration, employee-management facilitation and consulting, benefits administration, in-processing, out-processing, new employee orientation, retirement programmes, HR communications, HR policies and procedures/compliance, job postings, testing and plant access, HR Information System requirements, educational assistance and relocation/employee expenses.

Housekeeping & Facilities Management All activities related to the planning, administration and maintenance of buildings, facilities, utilities and grounds housekeeping and maintenance. Includes activities associated with providing transportation services and maintenance of other company vehicles.

Communications & Community Relations All activities associated with involving the company in the community for the betterment of the community and the economic well being of the company (includes visitor center and public communications). Also includes activities related to political action committee (PAC) and governmental affairs such as filing reports and informational requests.

Management Assistance / Industry Associations All activities associated with assisting management not included in any other functional activity. This may include directors, managers, assistant managers, and executive assistants/secretaries, business planning coordinators, and legal consultants. This includes support for management processes such as management oversight meetings, review boards, coordinating self assessment programme management, and coordinating human performance reviews. All activities associated with efforts to represent the company and provide technical input to committees, owner groups and industry, professional and trade associations that support the electric utilities’ interest. Includes full-time employees loaned to NEI, INPO, etc.

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Training All activities associated with the development and conduction of training programmes, including instructor preparation and instruction delivery time, production of class materials and the assessment of the training. Some examples are INPO accreditation activities, human performance improvement, qualification/certifications, fire drills, employee development training, job specific (discipline) training and operator training. Also includes all upgrades to training software including changes to the simulator software.

Training associated with EP drills and exercises should be charged to the Emergency Preparedness function.

Administrative/Clerical All activities associated with secretaries, administrative assistants who are not functional professionals, clerks, and clerical pools including clerical pool supervisors performing administrative support functions including coordinating meetings and conferences, word processing, spreadsheet development and maintenance, graphic/presentation materials, and non-technical analysis of data.

Management All activities associated with management personnel above the level of first line supervisor in all organizations or departments. For example, in a maintenance organization, the electrical technicians will work on a crew with a first line supervisor. Managers are defined as all personnel vertically above that first line supervisor, such as an electrical maintenance superintendent, a electrical maintenance manager, a maintenance manager, a plant manager, a site vice president, etc. This approach applies to al organizations, independent of a person’s job title, e.g., a person with the title “Nuclear Fuels Manager” at a company may have a small number of engineers that report directly to them. If there are no other leadership positions in the group, this person is in reality a first line supervisor, and should be counted in the nuclear fuels/reactor engineering functional count, not in the management functional count.

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Appendix IV: Copyright notice for the NPHR model

Copyright (c) 2011, Los Alamos National Security, LLC – “Nuclear Power Human Resource Modeling Tool, Version 1” (LANL reference number C10070)All rights reserved.

Copyright (2011). Los Alamos National Security, LLC. This software/model was produced under U.S. Government contract DE-AC52-06NA25396 for Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), which is operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy. The U.S. Government has rights to use, reproduce, and distribute this software/model. NEITHER THE GOVERNMENT NOR LOS ALAMOS NATIONAL SECURITY, LLC MAKES ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, OR ASSUMES ANY LIABILITY FOR THE USE OF THIS SOFTWARE/MODEL. If software/model is modified to produce derivative works, such modified software/model should be clearly marked, so as not to confuse it with the version available from LANL.

Additionally, redistribution and use in source and binary forms, with or without modification, are permitted provided that the following conditions are met:

Redistributions of source code must retain the above copyright notice, this list of conditions and the following disclaimer.

Redistributions in binary form must reproduce the above copyright notice, this list of conditions and the following disclaimer in the documentation and/or other materials provided with the distribution.

Neither the name of Los Alamos National Security, LLC, Los Alamos National Laboratory, LANL, the U.S. Government, nor the names of its contributors may be used to endorse or promote products derived from this software without specific prior written permission.

THIS SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED BY LOS ALAMOS NATIONAL SECURITY, LLC AND CONTRIBUTORS "AS IS" AND ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE ARE DISCLAIMED. IN NO EVENT SHALL LOS ALAMOS NATIONAL SECURITY, LLC OR CONTRIBUTORS BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, EXEMPLARY, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, PROCUREMENT OF SUBSTITUTE GOODS OR SERVICES; LOSS OF USE, DATA, OR PROFITS; OR BUSINESS INTERRUPTION) HOWEVER CAUSED AND ON ANY THEORY OF LIABILITY, WHETHER IN CONTRACT, STRICT LIABILITY, OR TORT (INCLUDING NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) ARISING IN ANY WAY OUT OF THE USE OF THIS SOFTWARE, EVEN IF ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGE.

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