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Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy

News Brief March 2017

Introduction The evolution of national and regional agri-food systems and the transformation of agriculture are having a major impact on the balance between production, consumption and trade of agricultural commodities and processed food. In 2012 the Regional Network of Agricultural Policy Research Institutes’ (ReNAPRI) launched on-going outlook initiative, which follows a multifaceted approach consisting of farm-level, sector-level and value-chain analysis within a Strategic Foresighting frame-work. The analysis includes horizon scanning, which identifies the emerging ‘megatrends’ currently shaping Africa’s agri-food systems, and impact assessments of domestic policy on regional trade flow patterns.

As part of the analytical capacity, a partial-equilibrium (PE) model was developed to undertake policy analysis and market outlook projections in national and regional contexts. The PE model is based on the methodology developed by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri and the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) at the University of Pretoria. This (PE) analysis tool is a middle approach to doing policy analysis and much easier to understand and use (and considerably less data-intensive) relative to CGE modeling. The PE model is also ideally suited to generate dynamic solutions and impact analysis for a range of exogenous policy, macro-economic or climatic shocks. As such, the outlook provides a baseline scenario and future projections

within the context of rapidly changing agricultural systems in Africa.

Since 2015, this initiative has been supported by the capacity building and training programme in partial equilibrium modelling under the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy (FSP).

Key components of training and capacity development Over the past three years the FSP training programme has been expanding over three ReNAPRI institutions; Sokoine at the University of Agricultural (Tanzania), CEPPAG at Eduardo Mondlane University (Mozambique) and CARD at Bunda College Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (Malawi). The key milestones set under include the following:

Expand existing coverage of the ReNAPRI PE Model to include more commodities. For example, rice in Tanzania and Mozambique and soybeans in Malawi.

Support researchers to develop and validate commodity balance sheets and empirical equations that feed into the modelling framework.

Provide 1-week in-country training and hands-on application in PE modelling and tools to faculty staff members and representatives of the ministry in order to increase exposure to this type of modelling and policy analysis.

2 Researchers of each institute attend a summer short-course in policy analysis and modelling at FAPRI, University of Missouri in order to gain a

Training and Capacity Building in Partial Equilibrium Modelling in Southern and Eastern Africa

Ferdi Meyer, Tracy Davids, Zena Mpenda, Emílio Tostão, Meizal Popat, Orcídia Vilanculos, Patrick Westhoff and Julian Binfield



deeper understanding of the model development and the simulation of an agricultural outlook.

Prepare an agricultural baseline (10-year) outlook that is presented at the annual ReNAPRI stakeholder event.

Establish closer collaboration with other components under FSP, especially the proposed activities under C4 (Agri-food System Transformation). The information and evidence that will be generated by these activities can be critical to shape the assumptions and consequently the outlook that is generated by the PE models.

Ultimately, it is envisaged that this output can tie into the proposed engagement on Global Policy Debates on Food Security.

Table 1 presents a summary of the commodities that are included in the ReNAPRI PE model. One unique feature of this cross-commodity and multi-country approach is that the model tracks market integration and price transmissions in the region and therefore also has the ability to solve regional tradeflow patterns dynamically. For e.g. if a country imposes an export ban, the model simulates the consequent impact on tradeflow patterns and prices for each country in the region. Similarly, the impact of the drought on regional trade as well as trade outside of the region can be captured.

Table 1: Commodity coverage in ReNAPRI PE models and database (FSP funded expansion highlighted in blue)

SA ZAM MOZ MAL KEN TAN DRC UGD ZIM

Maize X x x x x x x x x

Wheat X x x x x

Rice X x x

Soya X x x

Sugar X x x

Training at Sokoine, Morogoro, July 2015

Training at CEPPAG, Maputo, August 2016

The FAPRI-MU training that is hosted at the University of Missouri, covers both theory and hands-on skills in partial equilibrium modelling. This involves the spread from a basic understanding of price discovery to the principles of a commodity balance sheets to supply & demand policies, model building, equation creation, estimation of equations, projections, model closure to shocking the model. Furthermore, researchers are also exposed to practical cases studies of developing a baseline market outlook and analyzing various policy shocks. This provided the opportunity for the ReNAPRI researchers to start the development of their own models and the development of baseline projections.



Training at FAPRI, University of Missouri, July 2016

Purpose of an agricultural outlook The ReNAPRI agricultural outlook is based on assumptions regarding the expected trajectory of economic, technological, environmental, political, institutional, and demographic trends. It provides detailed long run (10-years) projections of the basic fundamentals (supply, demand, trade, price) of national and regional markets (currently maize, wheat, rice and sugar).

Key milestones and application of database and models ReNAPRI annual stakeholder meetings in Lusaka,

Maputo and Nairobi where more than 100 stateholders from the public and private sector attended the meetings.

ReNAPRI Policy-briefso Trade Policy Briefo Impact of the drought (El Nino) on regional

maize markets Recent presentations and Stakeholder meetings

o APP conference, Dar Es Salaam, February 2017o Presentation of Outlook at the Ministry of

Agriculture and Food Security (MASA), Mozambique, forthcoming on 6 April 2017.

ConclusionThis African outlook initiative and the development of a set of databases and tools/ models that are consistently updated and maintained is a long-run commitment and

the training and capacity building of researchers within African institutions forms a critical component of this long-run initiative. To this end, ReNAPRI has partnered with various non-African institutions, which include; the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (UN), Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri; and Michigan State University (MSU). The funding that has been provided under the Food the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy has been instrumental for training and capacity development. The uptake and the policy response to this form of analysis will not be immediate, however in countries where this initiative has been ongoing for many years, the evidence is undisputable positive that it has a significant impact on decision-making by stakeholders in the public and private sector.

Authors Ferdi Meyer, Director and Professor,

Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy, University of Pretoria.

Tracy Davids, Research Analyst, Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy, University of Pretoria.

Zena Mpenda, Researcher, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania.

Emílio Tostão, Director, CEPPAG, Eduardo Mondlane University, Mozambique.

Meizal Popat, Researcher, CEPPAG, Eduardo Mondlane University, Mozambique.

Orcídia Chiziane Vilanculos, Researcher, CEPPAG, Eduardo Mondlane University, Mozambique.

Patrick Westhoff, Director and Professor, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI), University of Missouri.

Julian Binfield, Researcher, Food and



Acknowledgements: Our sincere acknowledgement and appreciation goes to all our colleagues at the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri and the colleagues in the Trade and Markets Division of the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) who have over the past decade provided their consistent support, technical expertise and international platforms to grow the outlook and foresighting initiatives on the African continent.

This study is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the Feed the Future initiative. The contents are the responsibility study authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government

ANNEXURE: Participants at the training sessions hosted by FAPRI and BFAP:Sokoine – Morogoro, 6-10 July 2015

FAPRI-BFAP partial equilibrium training A) Tanzania, Morogoro 6-10 July 2015

Name Organization Male/Female email1 Zena Mpenda Sokoine University of Agriculture Female [email protected] Adam M. Akyoo Sokoine University of Agriculture Male [email protected] Judith Valerian Sokoine University of Agriculture Female [email protected]; 4 Christopher Magomba Sokoine University of Agriculture Male [email protected] Charles Mgeni Sokoine University of Agriculture Male [email protected] Betty Waized Sokoine University of Agriculture Female [email protected] Festo Mwemutsi President's Office - National Bureau of Statistics- Dept of Agric Statistics Male [email protected] Mbaraka Sitambuli Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries - Planning and Policy Male [email protected] Ester Mutatembwa Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperative- M&E and Statistics Unit Female [email protected]

10 Happy Pascal Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperative- M&E and Statistics Unit Female [email protected] Daktari Hango Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperative - Policy Unit Male [email protected] Dr. Gabriel Elepu Makerere University Male [email protected] Department of Agricultural Economics & Extension, University of Zimbabwe Male

CEPPAG – Maputo, 15 – 19 August 2016Name Organization Male/Female

Emílio Tostão CEPPAG Male [email protected]

Meizal Popat CEPPAG Male [email protected]

Orcídia Chiziane Vilanculos CEPPAG Female [email protected]

Amilcar Nhamona Customs Authority Male [email protected]

Angelo Noronha Central Bank Male [email protected]

Arlindo Miguel Ministry of Agriculture and Food security Male [email protected]

Enilde Sarmento Ministry of Economy and Finance Female [email protected]

Eulália Macome Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security Female [email protected]

Guilhermina Matiquite Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security Female [email protected]

Simao Nhane Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security Male [email protected]

Sofia Manussa Ministry of Agriculture and Food security Female [email protected]

Valdemiro Jovo CEPPAG Male [email protected]

Vanda Castelo Ministry of Economy and Finance Female [email protected]

Vasco Nhabinde Ministry of Economy and finance Male [email protected]

Zeferino Zunguene Mozambique commodities Exchange Male [email protected]

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