Weather Services for Energy · 2016. 7. 8. · Weather & Climate Services for Energy Steve Dorling...
Transcript of Weather Services for Energy · 2016. 7. 8. · Weather & Climate Services for Energy Steve Dorling...
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Weather & Climate Services for Energy
Steve Dorling
School of Environmental SciencesUniversity of East [email protected]
Innovations Director, Weatherquest Ltd
Director, WEMC
GFCS Climate and Energy Summer School, 4th-7th July 2016
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Weatherquest provide the weather datafeeds for the OWMShttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCp2iaIyns4
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RWE are the first client of the OWMS systemhttp://www.galloperwindfarm.com/project-overview
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Presentation Content
• About Weatherquest (10 minutes)
• Weather Services (25 minutes)
• Climate Services (10 minutes)
• Discussion (10 minutes)
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Weatherquest is a privately owned weather forecasting and analysis company, headquartered in the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia (UEA). Our team is involved in
1. Commercial forecasting services for the media, food & agriculture, renewables and port industry sectors
2. Applied meteorological research3. Meteorological education & outreach4. Employability training for students studying at UEA5. Co-ordinating WeatherTalk, the Royal Meteorological
Society’s East Anglian Centre
www.weatherquest.co.uk
Need more info?
Steve DorlingInnovations [email protected]
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Agriculture Water
Energy Transport
Press TV & Radio
Insurance Construction
Environment Training
<< Research >>
Meteorology & Climate
weatherquest market sectorsO
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A Model-Derived Climatology of Sea Breeze Circulations in the Southern North Sea
Chris SteeleStephen DorlingRoland von GlasowJim Bacon
School of Environmental SciencesUniversity of East [email protected]
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North Norfolk Coast: Composite 10m Windfield at 09:00, 51 Backdoor Sea Breeze events, 2002-12
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North Norfolk Coast Sea Breeze ClimatologyRed=Pure; Blue=Backdoor; Green=CorkscrewBlack=Total
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Weatherquest are based in the UK’s Greenest Building: The UEA Enterprise Centreyoutube.com/watch?v=yNEsfbzUSoM
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Key Clients
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CSC are ISO 9001 : ISO/IEC 27001 accredited
We are particularly proud to be the first IT provider in the area to achieve ISO27001 certification – the recognised international standard for best practice in data security. Computer Service Centre has always placed the highest importance on the availability, integrity and security of our customers’ data. The certification process and ongoing assessments test, validate and refine our Information Security Management System. Our ongoing compliance shows that we take your information security seriously, and that effective measures are in place to maintain data security.
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Client Needs and Benefits: Weather Services
• Improved Safety & Risk Assessment
• Enhanced Productivity
• Coordinated decision-making
• Better Financial Planning
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Days of Thunder – Southern Britain – June 2016
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Plasma Screen / Warnings Example
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Energy – Water – Food:Indistinct Boundaries
• Bioenergy (Food v Fuel)
• Wind+Solar Renewable Energy assets in agriculture and water sectors
• Hydroelectric Power
• Commodity Trading
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21
Food Price Shocks
The Food Price Index reflects changes in the (1) sugar, (2) dairy, (3) cereals, (4) Meat and (5) oil and fat markets.
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Surface Solar Radiation (MJ/m2) during the Grain Fill period (10th June – 21st July)
2003 2006 2007
2011 2012
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2012: Lowest UK wheat yields for 25 years
Low Solar Radiation Waterlogging Disease Forward contracts Drought in other key global growing regions
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Maize is increasingly being grown as an energy crop, used in anaerobic digestors for the production of Biogas. Maize
yields are affected by growing season (April-October)
conditions, in particular by air temperature variations.
Ontario Heat Units
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Weather Services – a natural precursor for climate services?
• Trust
• Co-design
• Always easier to deepen an existing relationship
• Big Data
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Client Needs and Benefits: Climate Services??
• Investment Decisions
• Adaptation. Building Resilience.
• Supply chain risks
• Scientific Underpinning
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Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)
• Seven services: 2x Energy, 2x Water, 1x
Agriculture,1x Cities, 1x Insurance
• Aim: to achieve operational climate services co-
designed and co-developed with final users
Stage 0/1 Stage2 Stage 3
2015 2017 2019 2021
Proof of concept/Pre-Operational
Operationalca 20 climate variables
5-6 sectors
Operationalca 30 climate variables
ca 10 sectors
We are here
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European Climatic
Energy Mixes (ECEM)
C3S ECEM in brief
• Budget: €1.6 m
• Length: 27 mth (from Nov 2015)
• Six partners: UEA (lead), EDF, U Reading, Met Office, ARMINES and ENEA
Target: proof-of-concept or demonstrator
Stakeholder engagement central to ECEM
• Five stakeholder workshops, one every 6 months
• Tailored engagement plan
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From Climate variables to Energy systems
SolarRadiation
Wind Speed
River Discharge
Temperature
Calibrated ECVs (WP2)
Rainfall
Energy Variables
SolarPower
Wind Power
Hydro Power
Demand
Thermal Power
• Skill & Reliability
• Assessment of Seasonal
Forecasts of Energy
Variables
Impacts of Climate
Variability & Change on
Energy Variables
+ Extreme Events Case
Studies
WP4
Define Models / Transfer Functions
Select / Gather relevant Datasets
Country
Scale
Historical
Period
Seas. Fcst
Clim. Proj.
+Ancillary
Cloud Cover
Others?
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The ECEM
DemonstratorThe purpose of the ECEM demonstrator is to enable the energy industry and policymakers to assess how well different energy supply mixes inEurope will meet demand, over different time horizons (from seasonalto long-term decadal planning), focusing on the role climate has on the mixes.