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Weather Information for the Ballooning
CommunityJennifer McNattLead Forecaster
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Office
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Today’s Overview
• Meteorology Review• Forecasting 101– Current data (soundings, observations,
radar)–Model data– Forecasts (TAFs, meteograms)
• Sources for Weather Information
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Meteorology Review
• Upper Level Patterns –What “drives” weather systems
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Highs and Lows
• Determine surface wind direction and speed
• Precip chances• Cloud cover
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Meteorology Review - Winds
• Pressure gradient– Tight = faster
winds
• Follow isobars, but also flow from higher to lower pressures
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Local Winds
• Smaller-scale winds caused by local effects.– Seabreezes– Differential Heating– Convective Outflow– Inversions/Boundary Layer
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Seabreezes
• During a clear day. . . sunshine heats the land to a greater extent than the water.
• Warm air over the land rises and is replaced by cooler, moister, marine air.
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At Night…Opposite processes occur
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Differential Heating
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Convective Outflows
• Doesn’t have to be from a thunderstorm
• Range from an increase in a few knots to 100+kts– Rapid change
in wind direction
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Inversions/Boundary Layer
• Especially pertinent to early AM flights– Colder layer near the surface– Gets “cut-off” from layer above it• Leads to stronger winds in layer above• Winds mix down to surface after sunrise
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TemperatureDewpoint
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Forecasting 101
To know what’s going to happen in the future, you
have to know what’s going on now…
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Observing the Weather
ASOS - Automated Surface Observing System
Rain
Temp & Dew Point
Precip type and intensity
Wind Direction and Speed
Data Unit
Visibility
Pressure measured at the Tower or other location nearby.
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ASOS
• 569 FAA sponsored sites• 313 NWS sponsored sites• Non-stop weather information• Computer generated voice broadcasts• Using FAA VHF ground-to-air radio or
appended to ATIS broadcast• Also available through the phone or on the
internet
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AWOSAutomated Weather Observing System
▪AWOSs cost about $94,000 and are much less expensive than ASOSs
▪Who owns them▸Federal AWOSs are maintained by the FAA▸Most AWOSs are owned and maintained by
states, airports, or other local interest▪There are three main types of AWOSs▸AWOS I - temp, dew point, pressure, wind,
density altitude▸AWOS II - adds visibility▸AWOS III - adds cloud information
–AWOS IIIp - adds precipitation type sensor
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Decoding METARs
METAR KTPA 101955Z 33015G22KT 1/2SM FG VV002 19/19 A2955 RMK A02 PK WND 32035/1915 TWR VIS 3/4 SLP028 P0004 T01920188
Remarks
Automated precipitation reporting
Peak wind northwest at 35kts at 1915Z
Tower visibility 3/4 mile
Sea level pressure 1002.8 MB00.04" rain in last hour
Temp = 19.2 CDew = 18.8 C
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Weather Balloons
▪Launched at the same time across the world (11Z & 23Z)
▪Rises 1000 feet per minute
▪Reaches 90,000 ft in 1.5 hours
▪Balloon expands to 35 feet before exploding
▪Measures:▸Temperature▸Dew Point▸Wind direction and speed▸Pressure
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Radiosonde Data
Station Map and Data Plot
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WSR-88D Radar
• 154 WSR-88D sites• About a 250nm range• Detects precip and velocity data• An additional 45 TDWR Sites– Higher resolution data
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Composite vs. Base Reflectivity
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Forecasting 101 – Model Data
• Ballooning = mesoscale models– Or models that take into account local effects
• WRF– Run at NWS offices– Small scale model– Data hourly– Check with your local office for availability on the web
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Model Data Continued…
• RUC– Designed for aviation community– Rapid update (hourly)– 1hr time steps
• MOS Guidance– Model Output Statistics
• Takes model data and interprets it for specific points (airports, METAR sites, etc)
• Also uses statistics…or climatology for that site
– Run every six hours
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MOS Bulletins
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Model Data Continued…
• LAMP (Localized Aviation MOS Guidance)–Will probably be the most helpful to
balloonists!!– Updates GFS MOS on an hourly basis– Forecasts elements every hour
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LAMP Guidance
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Forecasting 101 - Forecasts
• The NWS does the work for you!– Text Forecasts– Discussions– Aviation Forecasts– Graphical Forecasts
www.weather.gov
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NWS Products
• Forecast discussions– Out to 7 days– Include aviation section
• 7-day point and click forecast• Graphical forecasts– Hourly weather graphs based on
graphics
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs)
• Most used aviation forecast• Valid for 24-30hrs• Issued every 6hrs– Amended/updated as needed
• “Magic” threshold for winds = 12kts– Too high for balloonists?
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Decoding TAF Forecasts
• Slightly different time format now• TEMPO groups = <50% of the time• Difference between CB, VCTS and
TS?
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How can you access all of this data?
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RUC Soundings/Windshttp://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/gifs/
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Text Bulletins
• LAMP guidance (listed by state/site):http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/gfslamp/
bullform.html• MOS Bulletins:http://www.weather.gov/mdl/synop/products.php
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Decoding Observations
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/conversion/swometardecoder.html
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Dialing ASOS Siteshttp://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/weather/asos/
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Other useful websites
• Aviation Weather Center:http://www.aviationweather.govhttp://adds.aviationweather.gov/
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Other Useful Websites
• Check with your local NWS office– Aviation Section on website– Aviation Focal Point• Can give talks, provide more information,
etc.
http://www.weather.gov
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Radar Data http://www.weather.gov/radar_tab.php
• Can toggle:– Warnings– Topography– Cities– Highways
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Questions?