Weather Impacts on Weather Impacts on System OperationsSystem Operations

Importance of the Forecast in Importance of the Forecast in TFM Planning TFM Planning

Jim Ries

Oct 19, 2006

OverviewOverview• Traffic Flow Management (TFM) Mission

• TFM Decisions and Weather Information

• Forecast - A, B, C’s

• Case: July 27, 2006

Traffic Flow Management (TFM) Traffic Flow Management (TFM) MissionMission

The United States Traffic Management The United States Traffic Management System mission is to balance Air Traffic System mission is to balance Air Traffic demand with system capacity to ensure demand with system capacity to ensure the maximum efficient utilization of the the maximum efficient utilization of the National Airspace System (NAS). National Airspace System (NAS).

• The FAA's Air Traffic Control System The FAA's Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) monitors and Command Center (ATCSCC) monitors and manages the flow of Air Traffic throughout manages the flow of Air Traffic throughout the NAS, producing a safe, orderly, and the NAS, producing a safe, orderly, and expeditious flow of traffic while minimizing expeditious flow of traffic while minimizing delays. delays.

ATCSCCATCSCC

•The ATCSCC monitors conditions throughout the NAS in all domains

•“Weather” is the largest contributor to system delays and in the reduction of NAS resources

•Comprehensive weather information is needed throughout the pre-tactical (prior to the days operation), strategic planning (2-8 hours), and tactical (0-2 hours) time periods

•Weather conditions monitoring and weather forecast play a vital role

Out In

Off On

TowerTRACON TRACON

ARTCC

Tower

ATCSCC

Air Traffic Flow Chart

Pre-Tactical …………Strategic Planning …Tactical

Prior to days ops. 2-8 hours <2 hours – airborne flights

Decision Support Tools: Decision Support Tools: Terminal/TRACONTerminal/TRACON

Demand/Capacity

ETMS - TSD

FSM

Weather Info

METAR

TAF

ITWS/RAPT

(1 hour forecast)

Decision Support Tools: Terminal Decision Support Tools: Terminal cont.cont.

TFM applies Ground Delay Programs TFM applies Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and Ground Stops (GS) to mitigate (GDPs) and Ground Stops (GS) to mitigate reduced capacity at terminalsreduced capacity at terminals

MIT’s, (Miles-in-Trail)MIT’s, (Miles-in-Trail) APREQsAPREQs

or other departureor other departure restrictionsrestrictions

Example: GDP for ORD and EWR on 7/27/2006

•En-route weather products and forecast that are available as TFM aids

•current time out to 6 hours

Decision Support Tools: En-RouteDecision Support Tools: En-Route

CCFP (4 hour)

2, 4, 6 hour snapshot available on TSD

CIWS - MIT LL

Up to 2 hour forecast

Current – RADAR

TSD

CIWS Echo-Tops

Current – RADAR

Winds aloft

TSD

Possible TFM actions•Air Space Flow Programs (AFP’s)•MIT’s•Holding•Re-Routes

Decision Support Tools: En-Route Decision Support Tools: En-Route cont.cont.

WARP

Other products•12-24-36 hour surface progs (AWC, WSI)•Sigwx charts•Sigmets, CWAs, MISs•CCFP chat monitoring

NCWF1 – TSD (1-hour forecast)

Decision Support Tools: En-Route Decision Support Tools: En-Route cont.cont.

CIWS Echo-Tops

FCAA02 is defined by the northern boundary of ZDC from MRB extending southeastward.

Altitude Filters: 120 – 600

Arrival Filters: ZNY & ZBW

Departure Filters: None

Likely weather for use: Weather close in to or moving toward the N.Y. Metro area.

Weather Triggers: Intense weather that is close in or moving toward the N.Y. Metro area and is or will likely directly impact the N.Y. Metro airports.

NESP Rate Guidelines

Flow through ZDC:

Low Weather Impact: 100 – 110 Rate/Hour

Med Weather Impact 90 – 100 Rate/Hour

High Weather Impact 80 – 90 Rate/Hour

FCA002

AFP

Planning Process – Operations Planning Process – Operations PlanPlan

•CCFP is the cornerstone of the planning process

•Impact to air traffic and TFM decisions is significant

Location, Location, LocationLocation, Location, Locationand Timingand Timing

•Just as in real estate, the location of convective weather is critical to the amount of impact and the type of TFM mitigation applied;

•For example: TFM proactively moving airplanes into an area where convection unexpectedly materialized

•Then, a planned re-route into the weather, ouch

•If the forecast indicated here

Proactive SWAP Proactive SWAP •Proactive reroutes are usually implemented after collaboration on the OP. In the example above, current scattered thunderstorms along a frontal zone are forecast to increase in intensity and impact the NAS throughout the afternoon. The proactive actions include:

•Canadian Route: shifts volume north of the constrained area.

•ZOB Chokepoints: structure the remaining major eastbound arrival volume, allowing ATC to accommodate deviations and remaining flights.

•MGM Playbook: shifts volume south of the constrained area.

•During significant events, multiple playbook routes may be used in association with an FEA or FCA.

Proactive OutcomesProactive Outcomes •As convective activity develops, pre-established routes around areas of system impact allow ATC to accommodate user operations closer in to the weather. Eastbound Playbook routes also allow for increased availability of westbound departure routes with deviations in lieu of SWAP or CDR use. Should the system impact become more significant, westbound CDRs may be utilized to minimize departure delays.

•Ground stops and other high-impact traffic management initiatives are kept to a minimum, only being necessary where unforeseen volume and complexity affects the enroute structure, or where weather impacts terminal areas unrelated to SWAP routes.

Forecast A, B, C’s Forecast A, B, C’s

To apply proactive actions the forecasters To apply proactive actions the forecasters need to maintain the A, B, C’sneed to maintain the A, B, C’s

Improve forecast skillImprove forecast skill• A: Accuracy A: Accuracy

Correctly locating the hazard based on the Correctly locating the hazard based on the forecast criteriaforecast criteria

• B: Bias (Precision)B: Bias (Precision) Reducing under or over forecastingReducing under or over forecasting

• C: ConsistencyC: Consistency Reliability between forecast periodsReliability between forecast periods

July 27, 2006July 27, 2006 AccuracyAccuracy

•Correctly forecasting the location of convection over the Northeast corridor is significant

•On this day, departure route blockage created gridlock conditions at ORD

July 27, 2006July 27, 2006 Bias (precision)Bias (precision)

•Under forecast can catch TFM off guard and the system becomes reactive

•Over forecasting can lead to excessive re-routes or unnecessary restraints in the system

July 27, 2006 July 27, 2006 ConsistencyConsistency

• Valid 21z; Valid 21z; • issued at 15z, 17z, 19zissued at 15z, 17z, 19z

TFM actions can last all TFM actions can last all day (i.e. GDP’s), radical day (i.e. GDP’s), radical changes can cause changes can cause unrecoverable delays for unrecoverable delays for the NAS customers or the NAS customers or create costly diversionscreate costly diversionsIssued 15z

Issued 17z

Issued 19z

•ATCSCC OPERATIONS PLANATCSCC ADVZY 105 DCC 07/27/06 OPERATIONS PLANVALID FOR 272000 THRU 280200

TERMINAL CONSTRAINTS:NY METROS/PHL/DC METROS/MCO/PBI/TPA/MIA/DTW/PIT/CVG-TSTMSORD/STL/PHX/LAS-TSTMSOSH-AIRSHOWSFO-LOCIGS

EN ROUTE CONSTRAINTS:ZBW/ZNY/ZDC/ZJX/ZMA/ZID/ZOB/ZHU/ZFW/ZKC/ZAU/ZMP/ZAB-TSTMS

1. ROUTESUNTIL 2100 -CVG CINCEUNTIL 2100 -DTW ARRIVAL ROUTESAFTER 2000 -ORD OXI-OKK PLAYBOOK POSSIBLEUNTIL 2300 -SOUTH 2 DFWUNTIL 2300 -ZAU TO TXUNTIL 0000 -ZDV/ZKC TO PHL/NYUNTIL 0000 -NRP SUSPENDED ON J29 TO THE NEUNTIL 0100 -MGM 2 PLAYBOOKUNTIL 0100 -A761 STRONGLY RMDUNTIL 0200 -BNA PLAYBOOK OPTION TO NY METROSUNTIL 0200 -PXV PLAYBOOK OPTION TO DC METROSUNTIL 0400 -CAN 1 EAST FYI TO EWR/JFK/TEBUNTIL 0400 -CAN 7 EAST FYI TO ZBWUNTIL 2359 -SERMN NORTHUNTIL 0000 -SERMN SOUTH

2. ZOB/ZDCUNTIL 0259 -AFP05, CAN_ROUTES AVAILABLE OPTIONUNTIL 0259 -AFP08, A761 AVAILABLE OPTIONS

3. ZBWUNTIL 0200 -BOS GROUND STOP, AND GROUND DELAY PROGRAM POSSIBLE

4. ZNYAFTER 1800 -EWR CDR'S, GROUND DELAY PROGRAMAFTER 2000 -LGA, CDR'S GROUND DELAY PROGRAM POSSIBLEAFTER 2000 -JFK CDR'S, GROUND STOPS POSSIBLE

5. ZDCUNTIL 0000 -IAD/DCA/BWI GROUND STOPS POSSIBLE

6. ZOBUNTIL 0000 -DTW/CLE GROUND STOPS, CDR'S/SWAP POSSIBLE

7. ZAUUNTIL 0259 -ORD SWAP, CDR'S GROUND DELAY PROGRAMUNTIL 0200 -ORD STRONGLY RMD DEPT TO LGA FILE CAN_1

8. ZLAAFTER 2200 -LAS POSSIBLE GROUND STOPS AND REROUTES

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NEXT PLANNING TELCON: 272115Z271957-27215906/07/27 19:57 FSA.//lxstn08a 27/19:57-21:59

July 27, 2006 Operations Plan

Questions?

NOTE: movie of traffic and weather for ORD and ZNY for the July 27 event follows:

Chicago and Midway

ORD Arrivals – MaroonORD Departures – Pink

MDW Arrivals - OliveMDW Departures – Blue

DTW Arrivals – TurquoiseDTW - Green