Weather briefing, 11 AM 20070720

Contributions from Lenny Pfister, Evelyn Quiros, Chuck Bardeen,

and Ana Maria Duran

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• Progression of easterly wave in Caribbean toward the west, with wave dividing into two. NHC says the northern part has “some potential for further development.” Hmm

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• Dry slot has moved eastward and gotten smaller as Panama bight and Caribbean convection has gotten stronger.

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9

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6 hour prog does not show the enhanced moisture and Convection in the Caribbean north of Panama, though Development in Panama bight is somewhat simulated

We expect an active ITCZ tomorrow, with activity in thePanama bight. PLEASE don’t take the position of these Blobs too literally.

Sunday and Monday have a less active ITCZ.

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Surface Weather conditions

• Tomorrow: Dry condition over us, with easterlies at 925 mb weakening through the day. Wind shift in late morning. Expect very isolated showers after about 3 PM. Along landing flight path to the west convective systems moving northwestward along the coast may pose a problem.

Surface Weather Conditions

• Sunday we have weaker easterlies and more PW over us. Expect showers by around 2-3 PM. Rain should be more significant than yesterday, today, and tomorrow.

• Monday expect rain possibly by midday

• Conditions improving later in the week.