Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Weather and Climate Extremes

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/wace

Transforming agriculture to climate change in Famenin County, West Iranthrough a focus on environmental, economic and social factors

Mojtaba Khaniana,∗, Nadine Marshallb, Kianoosh Zakerhaghighic, Marziyeh Salimia,Asadollah Naghdid

a Young Researchers and Elite Club, Hamedan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iranb CSIRO, Land and Water, Townsville, Australiac Department of the Urban Planning, Faculty of Art and Architecture, Hamedan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Irand Department of Social Sciences, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran

A R T I C L E I N F O

Keywords:TransformationClimate change adaptationEnvironmental dependencyEconomic factorsSocial factors

A B S T R A C T

When the social, economic, or ecological conditions under which socio-ecological systems are expected to adaptbecome untenable, a system may transform into a fundamentally new system. Within agricultural systems,farmers have the option of significantly transforming their practices, or migrating elsewhere in the search for abetter lifestyle (and exiting the agricultural socio-ecological system). However, if governments, communities andindustry leaders are to provide climate change impact support to agricultural regions, then it becomes critical topredict the conditions under which farmers, households and communities will choose to either transform theirfarming or migrate. We hypothesize that those conditions are likely to reflect environmental, economic andsocial conditions within a region, where some communities and/or some farmers may respond differently de-pending on their environmental, economic and social factors. Here, we examine how the perception of farmers totransformational change is influenced by social, environmental and economic factors in six villages within theFamenin County of western Iran, which have experienced a notable recent decrease in groundwater levels, anincrease in temperature due to reduced rainfall and no support from government. Results show that environ-mental, economic and social factors were all important influences on the social transformations that were oc-curring within each village and across the region. In sum, environmental flexibility and local corporation easedthe transformation process. Place attachment and social capital were critical to facilitate transformation duringall parts of the transformation process. These results are discussed as two separate scenarios.

1. Introduction

Climate change has a domino effect, often starting with a singlemanifestation and leading to multiple directly or indirectly-relatedphenomena across environmental, agricultural, economic and socialdomains. For example, an extended period of lower rainfall can have farreaching consequences, from affecting local crops and income, thenetworks that people develop and daily access to demographics oftownships very far away. Amongst others, these phenomena are rapidlychanging the social structures of human societies (Folke et al., 2011).Empirical studies on the relationship between social structures andclimate change decision-making have become popular, and are havingthe most impact in areas of climate change adaptation planning, ascommunities and governments are recognizing the need to anticipateand prepare for the climate challenges of the future (Eakin and Wehbe,2009; Larsen et al., 2011; Chhetri et al., 2012; Manuel-Navarrete,

2013). The “adaptation” approach has been practiced by many re-searchers and organizations such as the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (Van Aalst et al., 2008) andthe Committee on Climate Change (2009). The latter defines adaptationas a coordination of behaviors to moderate harm or to exploit beneficialopportunities resulting from climate change (CCC, 2009). The adapta-tion strategy can be implemented through non-hierarchical self-orga-nization or formal planning, which involves hierarchical interventions(Manuel-Navarrete and Pelling, 2015). Whilst Smit et al. (1998) sug-gested that social systems react to climate change through adaptation,which might be voluntarily, unconscious or targeted. It is recognizedthat, proactively creating self-reliant, resistant and resilient societies isa key strategy in climate change adaptation planning. However, despitethe critical importance of planning for climate change adaptation, re-latively little research has focused on how societies perceive and chooseto adapt at the scale of the individual, including the factors that

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.05.006Received 27 January 2018; Received in revised form 27 May 2018; Accepted 28 May 2018

∗ Corresponding author.E-mail address: khanian.mojtaba@gmail.com (M. Khanian).

Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

2212-0947/ © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/).

Please cite this article as: Khanian, M., Weather and Climate Extremes (2018), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.05.006

influence their perceptions and choice.There are many scientific documents that define the term transfor-

mation (Furedi, 2007; Ajakaiye and de Janvry, 2010), and this concepthas been increasingly considered in resilience theory in recent years(Walker et al., 2004). Walker et al. (2004) defines transformability as“the capacity to create a fundamentally new system when ecological,economic, or social (including political) conditions make the existingsystem untenable”. Transformation, as an extreme form of adaptation,is expected to occur when a system faces unprecedented change andcannot continue to function socio-ecologically or economically (Walkeret al., 2004). Park et al. (2012) explains transformation as “transi-tioning through the adaptive cycle [which] may result in a completechange of state and the creation of a fundamentally new system” (Parket al., 2012: 117). Transformation is currently receiving growing in-terest by scholars (Pelling, 2010; Marshall et al., 2012; O’Brien, 2012;Manuel-Navarrete and Pelling, 2015) where rural communities are re-garded as particularly important to consider in studies of transforma-tion as they are more vulnerable to environmental changes than otherstrata of society. This is due to their deeply-established daily relation-ship with the climate via the climate-sensitive ecosystem upon whichthey are typically dependent. In recent years, rural communities, orvillages have come to notable harm because of climate challenges andmany have had to transform their practices, functions and identity(Ford and Smit, 2004; Eriksen and Silva, 2009; Osbahr et al., 2008). Wehave learned that financial, physical and human resources as well as theamount of social capital available to rural communities can influencethe success of the social transformation processes (Paul et al., 2016).Environmental and economic factors are also known to be important(O’Brien, 2012; O’Brien et al., 2013). However, many other factors arealso likely to influence the “domino effect” leading to successful (orunsuccessful) transformations. Understanding what these influences arewill considerably assist planning processes.

Here, we focus on the role that social factors contribute to theprocess of social transformation. Social factors are broadly recognizedto influence transformation processes and success. For example,Marshall et al. (2012) suggest that occupational identity and attach-ment to place are two social factors that can significantly influence thechoice that peanut farmers in Australia make to transform and adopt analternative occupation or place of residence in order to adapt tochanging conditions (Marshall et al., 2012). They suggest that whereattachment to occupation or place are particularly high, the choice totransform occupation or place becomes increasingly difficult. However,surprisingly few reports have emerged that provide deep insight intothe social dimension of transformation, particularly to support or guideclimate change adaptation processes. We review how environmental,economic and social factors are known to influence transformation, andpropose and test a conceptual model of transformation. Our study at-tempts to describe the phenomenon of transformation and the influenceof environmental, economic and social factors in the Famenin Countylocated in the Hamadan province, north-west of Iran, for the purposesof providing deeper insight into people's preferences and influences.Specifically, we record how individuals and communities have re-sponded (and transformed) to a recent severe drought and seek to un-derstand which factors were most important in shaping the process andoutcomes. Strategies that are adopted by people in response to droughtwill be analyzed in context of environmental, economic and socialfactors.

In recent decades, the Famenin county, West Iran, has been facing asignificant drought and reduction in groundwater levels (Afrakhtehet al., 2015; Karimi and Taheri, 2010). Groundwater is undoubtedly onethe most valuable natural resources on earth as it is used as the primarysource of water for domestic, agricultural and industrial uses (Berhanuet al., 2014; Fitts, 2002). This is particularly true for Iran, as Iran isconsidered an arid and semiarid country where more than two-thirds ofits area is covered with deserts and wilderness (Nosrati and Eeckhaut,2012; Razandi et al., 2015). Iranian agriculture is heavily dependent on

water and any water crisis can drastically affect agricultural practices.Since farming is the main occupation in Iranian rural communities,water crises have been the main driver influencing economic and socialmechanisms in recent years (Zehtabian et al., 2010). Because of inter-national sanctions imposed on Iran in the last few years and the wea-kened economy of the country, the central government has been unableto manage the drought process and support villagers. Any transforma-tion process has thus occurred independently of government interven-tion.

2. Transformation as a response to untenable climate conditionsin rural areas

2.1. Environment and climate change transformation

The role of the environment in influencing social system transfor-mation processes is particularly high where social and economic sys-tems are dependent on natural resources. Environmental factors areinherent, or internal to the system, and typically initiate the transfor-mation process. Because they are climate sensitive, they are the systemcomponents that are ‘exposed’ to the system (Marshall et al., 2013). Theimpacts that are likely to be felt within a region will depend on thenature of the dependency of people - upon the resource (environmentaldependency), where those that are more dependent are more likely toexperience negative impacts and be required to transform in order toadapt and survive (Marshall et al., 2007). Studying socio-ecologicalsystems and their dependency on an environment can contribute tounderstanding the rigidness of a system in the face of transformation.Accordingly, impacts to climate change in rural regions are significantlydifferent to those in urban areas.

“Environmental flexibility” is an environmental factor that can in-fluence transformational processes. It determines the kind of transfor-mations that are possible within the social system. A system with higherflexibility has more options available to it, than one with lower flex-ibility. For example, as Cumming (1999) showed in southeastern Zim-babwe when the amount of grass and shrubs diminished significantlyand there was no justification for livestock, the beauty of the landscapewas able to create opportunities for ecotourism and new lifestyles forthe people who live there.

It can be hypothesized then that environmental dependency andenvironmental flexibility are two factors that can affect system trans-formation processes (Fig. 1).

2.2. Economic factors and climate change transformation

Economic factors have influenced human response to climatechange through both initiating the transformation processes and de-termining the success of outcomes (Nelson et al., 2007). Economichardship as a result of the environment no longer being able to providesufficient financial benefits, initiates the decision-making process (Parket al., 2012). Given that all change processes are expensive, people aremore likely to undergo transformation and end up in a “desirable” placeif they have a financial buffer or access to financial capital (Marshall,2011).

We highlight two other ways that economic factors can also

Fig. 1. Environmental impacts on system transformation (Authors).

M. Khanian et al. Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

2

influence the process of transformation. Firstly, we see that the natureof an individual's occupation can be important. Individuals that are in aresource-dependent occupation (such as farming) are more likely totransform than others, especially as climate change impacts becomeapparent in the bio-physical components of the system (Marshall,2011). Secondly, small economic groups that operate in shadow net-works that are committed to the process of transformation can also beinfluential (Pelling et al., 2008). For example, Westley et al. (2011)have studied the role of institutional entrepreneurs that operate withinshadow networks in the process of transformation. These “local cor-porations” within the system can enhance transformation processes inthe face of challenges such as climate change. Based on these points, wevisualize the impact of economic influences on transformation as illu-strated in Fig. 2:

2.3. The role of social factors in climate change transformation

There is a growing literature discussing the role of social factors onadaptation and transformation (Pelling, 2011; Marshall et al., 2012).Walker et al. (2004, p. 7) identify that “attributes required for trans-formability will emphasize novelty, diversity, and organization inhuman capital—diversity of functional types (kinds of education, ex-pertise, and occupations); trust, strengths, and variety in institutions;speeds and kinds of cross-scale communication”. We see that thesesocial factors also act as a catalyzer, and accelerates and facilitates theprocess of transformation in a system. For example, Marshall et al.(2012) provide evidence to suggest that where place attachment is high,transformations that involve occupational change are more likely to beobserved than transformations that involve re-location. Also, Khanianet al. (2017) Studied role of place attachment to increase adaptive ca-pacity of farmers in response to environmental changes. Similarly,where occupational attachment is high, transformations are more likelyto involve changes in place than occupation.

Adger (2003) highlighted the role of social capital in climate changeadaptation process. He argued that social capital develops along anadaptation path through the building of private and public institutions.In this way, social capital eases the transformation process and could bean important influence on the choices that people make when facedwith the need to transform. Fig. 3 illustrates these links.

2.4. Defining research theoretical framework

Our theoretical framework is illustrated in Fig. 4. It is based on threemain hypotheses that each offer two other separate hypotheses. The

relationship between environmental, economic and social factors aspart of the transformation process are tested in this study using thecondition of drought within the Famenin rural district, Iran.

3. An overview of drought in Iran and Famenin County

Drought is a phenomenon which occurs periodically in monthly orannual cycles (Sun et al., 2006). During the last three decades the se-verity and frequency of drought suggests that drought may currently beoccurring as a result of climate change and that the impacts of climatechange are already manifest in Iran (Heim, 2002; Mccarthy et al.,2001). In many regions around the globe, water scarcity and droughtare increasingly on the rise (Ghulam et al., 2008). One of the mostcrisis-ridden regions is the Middle East, which has attracted the atten-tion of many researchers during recent years (Amery and Wolf, 2000;Wolf and Newton, 2007). The Middle East's most recent drought beganin 2007 and has since exasperated water problems in this region(Integrated Regional Information Networks, 2010; U.S Department ofAgriculture (USDA), 2011). Extensive studies on climate change in thearea also speak of prolonged periods of drought in the future (Dai,2011). However, examinations have revealed a series of complextransboundary groundwater bodies in the region (FAO, 2009). Despitethis, reports indicate that the water reserves and ecosystems of the re-gion are being diminished and destroyed and as a result thousands offarmers have immigrated to nearby cities in search of more viable workto achieve higher quality of life (Zakerhaghighi et al., 2015; Khanianet al., 2013; Michel et al., 2012; Sullivan, 2010). Fig. 5 describes thecondition of the region.

The study area is in the north and west of Iran, which - as can beseen in Fig. 5 - represents the most intense groundwater depletion in thecountry. During the last millennium, Iran has experienced multiplenatural hazards and disasters (see Table 1), particularly drought(Shahabfar et al., 2012). In fact, drought has been one of the most re-curring natural hazards during various periods in Iran and has beenintensified by climate change during the last decade (Amirkhani andChizari, 2010). Sixty-five percent of Iran's soil is arid, twenty percent issemiarid and only fifteen percent is humid (Madani, 2014a). Climateand rainfall databases in Iran indicate that drought is drastically af-fecting ecological and socioeconomic conditions (OFDA/CREDInternational Disaster Database, 2011). About 65% of the water re-quired for various purposes is supplied by groundwater reserves and35% by surface water. Furthermore, 90% of this water is used in agri-culture (Zahedi Mazandarani and Zahedi Abghari, 1996).

Madani (2014a) describes the main reasons that climate change hashad such impact in Iran as; (i) population increase and its uneven dis-tribution, (ii) low productivity farming, and (iii) the thirst for industrialdevelopment. Iran has always borne the negative consequences of in-efficient farming practices (Katouzian, 1978; Nattagh, 1986) and themain culprit seems to be the faulty irrigation methods, which overusethe existing water sources (Seyf, 2006). According to statistical records,only 15 percent of Iran's soil is cultivated, and this small amount usesmore than 92 percent of Iran's water sources while industrial and do-mestic uses take only 7% and 1% of the sources respectively. Despitethis overwhelming amount of water use, Iranian agriculture contributesonly 23 percent of the available jobs and its share in Iran's GDP, whichis 13 percent (Madani, 2014b). As a result of this trend, 277 out of thetotal 609 Iranian plains have become arid and some of their ground-water reserves have dried up and the rest are diminishing by the day(Forootan et al., 2014; Dehghani et al., 2009, 2013). A review of thisdata clearly indicates that the current farming methods most often usedin villages are inefficient. Overall, climate change in Iran has mani-fested in two forms, namely increased temperature and reduced rain-fall, which accompanied by inefficient farming methods has disturbedthe socioeconomic patterns among Iranian citizens especially in thevillages. The county under study is located in the north-western pro-vince of Hamadan. Famenin County is one of the nine counties of

Fig. 2. Economic impacts on system transformation (Authors).

Fig. 3. Social Impacts on System transformation (Authors).

M. Khanian et al. Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

3

Hamadan situated north-east of the province (Rahmani et al., 2013;Kahvand et al., 2015). Famenin connects to Razan County from south,to Hamadan and Kaboudarahang counties from south and east and toMarkazi Province from west (see Fig. 6). With a total area of 1360square kilometers, Famenin County takes up about six or seven percentof Hamadan Province's total area. The county consists of Famenin andMamahan towns as well as 64 villages of varying sizes (Famenin'sCensus Bureau, 2011). According to the Statistical Centre of Iran(2011), the total population of Famenin County was 42,485 in 2011,out of which 6000 were farmers or were active in related occupations.Out of 88,200 square kilometers of arable lands, 73 percent is allocatedto dry farming and 28 percent to irrigated farming; only 21 percent ofthe latter is covered by mechanical (high-pressure) irrigation and the

rest is irrigated by traditional methods (Agriculture Jihad of HamadanProvince, 2012).

Drought severity over a recent 84-month period is shown in Fig. 7and is based on statistics from the Iran Meteorological Organization(2018). As seen in Fig. 7 the entirety of the Famenin county is experi-encing moderate levels of drought. The Famenin County has also ex-perienced a dramatic reduction in its groundwater level over the lastdecade.

The authors selected six villages with different features to conductthe study. These six villages were chosen to cover similar economic,social and environmental features and to reduce the huge task ofstudying all Famenin villages. These villages are Nasirabad, Akleh,Saravak, Hajiabad, Ebrahimabad and Mamahan. In the new compre-hensive plan of Famenin town, Mamahan is considered a district of thistown.

The amount of groundwater level reduction in these six villages

Fig. 4. Influence of environment, economic and social factors on transformation (Authors).

Fig. 5. GRACE TWS Trends: Decrease of groundwater levels in Middle Eastbetween 2002 and 2015 (source: nasa.gov, 2015).

Table 1Top 10 natural disasters in Iran for the period 1900–2012 sorted by numbers oftotal affected people (source: Shahabfar et al., 2012).

Disaster Date Total affected people

Drought Apr-1999 37,000,000Flood 10-Aug-2001 1,200,200Flood Jul-1980 950,000Earthquake 21-Jun-1990 710,000Drought Jan-1964 625,000Flood 3-Feb-1993 484,728Earthquake 7-Apr-1977 400,000Earthquake 26-Dec-2003 267,628Flood 10-Aug-2002 200,000Earthquake 30-mar-2006 161,418

M. Khanian et al. Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

4

between 1998 and 2015 are shown in Fig. 8. The data have been col-lected from Hamadan Regional Water Administration. Studies haveindicated that Famenin's average annual evaporation is much higherthan its average annual precipitation, the amounts being 1505mm and300mm respectively (Sabziparvar, 2003; Karimi and Taheri, 2010). Onthe other hand, inefficient and uncontrolled use of water for farmingpurposes during recent years and mismanagement of this natural re-source have led to formation of karst features, emergence of numerous

sinkholes and consequently a decrease of water infiltration into theground to replenish aquafers (Karimi and Taheri, 2010). Extensiveevaporation of surface waters because of continuous temperature rise inthe region since 1990 (Iran Meteorological Organization, 2018) hasresulted in a notable decrease of groundwater levels, with the majorconsequence being the decline of agricultural output in Famenin. Infact, there has been no significant change in Famenin's precipitationrate according to the latest meteorological reports (Iran Meteorological

Fig. 6. Geographical location of Famenin County (source: Famenin's Census Bureau, 2011).

Fig. 7. Drought Statistics in past 84 months in Hamedan Province (source: Iran Meteorological Organization, 2018- http://www.irimo.ir/).

M. Khanian et al. Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

5

Organization, 2018). The susceptibility of Famenin's agricultural pro-ducts to these new climatic conditions is also another reason for thesharp decline in farming in the region.

As the figure indicates, the groundwater levels in these villages havedecreased in the last two decades most notably between 2002 and2005. As mentioned above, The reasons are lack of supervision by re-lated authorities on water well construction and increased temperatureswhich have led to desertification and emergence of sinkholes. Thisprevents rainwater from reaching the lower layers of the soil region (seeFig. 9).

Fig. 10 indicates the population growth trend and consequently themigration trend in Nasirabad, Ebrahimabad, Akleh and Hajiabad.

The Famenin County has faced severe drought in the past twodecades resulting from mismanagement of groundwater use and climatechange in the form of reduced annual precipitation (Karimi and Taheri,2010; Afrakhteh et al., 2015). Considering that rural life in FameninCounty has been founded on farming, significant changes are expectedto have occurred in the county's villages during the past years. Fig. 11describes Famenin's rural population growth rate between 1956 and2011.

As can be seen in Fig. 11, the population of Famenin County hasdeclined by 17% in the past two decades, which correlates with thedecrease in groundwater levels presented in Fig. 8 produced for thisresearch. According to the statistics provided by the Agricultural JihadOrganization of Famenin County, the total area of the county's culti-vated lands, which mainly produce grains, have decreased by 20 per-cent in 2015 compared to 2014. This significant decrease within asingle year is likely to be significantly correlated with the social

transformation in the villagers' lifestyle.Based on the findings of field surveys, the geographical location of

Famenin County, which is situated near the main highway connectingTehran Province to the western Iran, has contributed to the emergenceof a significant number of retail stores and stands established by thecounty's residents who have given up farming.

4. Method

We used a qualitative approach to observe human behavior andprovide a deep understanding of the social context (Delavar., 2006;Rahimianzarif and Moradi, 2018). We included a field study, directobservation, and in-depth interviews with local inhabitants that haveimmigrated to other places. Secondary data collected from related or-ganizations and authorities were also incorporated into the study. Un-like the more common analyses, which are based on interpretation ofthe participants' actions and beliefs, in the qualitative analysis of in-terviews, the researcher attempted to present the participants' practicalinterpretation of actions, cognitive processes and phenomena. In thismethod, the individual is not the main unit of analysis; rather, the aimis to understand and analyze cultural norms among individuals (Talja,1999). We have used in-depth interviews in order to identify and un-derstand the transformation strategies that were adopted by villagers.

In-depth interviews were administered in six villages within thecounty. Classification of villages in the Famenin county were typedaccording to economic, environmental and social factors. Six types ofvillages were identified. Within each village 10–15 people were ran-domly selected, introduced to the study and invited to participate. After

Fig. 8. Groundwater level reduction in Nasirabad, Akleh, Saravak, Hajiabad, Ebrahimabad and Mamahan villages between 1998 and 2015 (source: HamadanRegional Water Administration, 2015).

M. Khanian et al. Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

6

primary conversations with them, researchers made the decision whe-ther to select them as interviewees. Secondary selection criteria werebased on their job type, whether they were indigenous, gender and ifthey trusted the researchers. Finally, 32 persons were selected in 6villages: Nasirabad: 7 participants, Akleh: 4 participants, Saravak: 7,Hajiabad: 4, Ebrahimabad: 4 and Mamahan; 6. These sample sizes weresufficient to obtain information saturation, where interviewing morepeople did not lead to more information.

On average, each interview took 15–20min, although informal as-pects of the meeting took longer. Most interviews occurred in the vil-lage mosques where individuals gathered for their noon prayers. Someinterviews occurred in open places within the villages such as in front ofshopping markets. Researchers navigated interviews to achieve theobjectives of research as follows: firstly, environmental and farmingstatus with their economic status across the previous decade or two(depending on their age). Then, descriptions of their current jobs andlifestyles were asked. Descriptions of social factors such as their socialinteraction with others, social capital, place attachment, etc. were alsosought. All questions were open-ended and in many cases prompting ofthe interviewees was necessary in order to elicit information that was arich as possible. Data was then coded and analyzed by the primary

author by xxx during which the collected data was reduced to separatemeaningful units and then became conceptualized. All data are avail-able in Persian from the primary author.

Fig. 9. Desertification and sinkholes in the region under study have intensified groundwater level reduction. (source: Authors).

Fig. 10. Population growth trend in Nasirabad, Ebrahimabad, Akleh and Hajiabad villages between 1956 and 2015 (source: Statistical Yearbook of Famenin County,2011 and the authors' field studies).

Fig. 11. Famenin's rural population growth rate between 1956 and 2011(source: Statistical Center for Statistical Centre of Iran, 2011).

M. Khanian et al. Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

7

5. Results and discussion

5.1. The influence of environmental factors in influencing the social systemtransformation process

Environmental variables were found to affect the transformationprocess via two main factors, namely environmental dependency andenvironmental flexibility. Interviews indicated that the residents wereextensively dependent on their environment and that their surroundingenvironment was “flexible” only under certain circumstances. For ex-ample, Sardar, a 50-year-old resident of Ebrahimabad Village, said: “I'msure that without water our village is going to become completelyabandoned in a few years because our life is dependent on farming andour farming method is dependent on water. In the past few years, I triedto grow wheat and barley by dry farming but I gained no profit becauseof reduced rainfall in April and May. […] For four years, I have beenmaking ends meet by selling my properties, my car and my wife'sjewelries. Every year I try to return my life to its former condition but asthey say, you can't fight nature. […] Just like a gambler, I lost every-thing trying to build up the place I was born in but it's like this place iscursed. It's impossible to live here any longer. […] At the present, I'vegot nothing left to sell. I'm going to go to my children in the city. I'mgoing to leave the village forever.”

Examination of the sites under study indicated that Saravak Villageis different from the other villages. Because of the favorable slope offarmlands in this village, farming has a long history in Saravak.However, increased temperature and reduced rainfall have had seriousnegative effects on its agriculture. Use of any irrigation system wasabandoned in 2004 and the villagers now only tend to dry farming. Areview of the condition of the local families revealed that dry farminghas been able to provide for only 20 percent of their basic needs.Interviews with the residents indicated that since diminishment offarming in 2004, the activity of Saravak Asphalt Manufacture locatednear the village and run by one of the local dwellers has notably in-creased. The factory now provides jobs for 80 percent of local families(Fig. 12).

It is evident that Saravak's environmental flexibility has facilitatedthe transformation process in the village. This is due to the naturalcapacities of the village for housing an asphalt factory. For example

Parviz, a 35-year-old resident of Saravak Village who now works as aforeman, said: “The stones in Saravak Village are very good for man-ufacturing asphalt. Because of the stones, the village almost pays nomoney for transport of raw materials; so, the factory's profitability isquite high.” Parviz has worked in the factory since the beginning of itsestablishment. “The natural features of the village are so favorable forthe asphalt factory that after its establishment, a few government andprivate factories were established close to it. But, the village's peopleprefer to work at a factory which belongs to them and hardly visit thesurrounding factories for work,” Parviz added. Fig. 13 indicates thefactories which surround Saravak's main asphalt factory.

Interestingly, Saravak's flexibility has meant that the level of en-vironmental dependency has decreased in the sense that although thevillage residents were extremely dependent on the surrounding en-vironment prior to the drought, they have now adapted their lives tothe new conditions such that they are no longer as dependent on theresource as they once were.

Nasirabad Village has similar conditions to Saravak, but its en-vironmental flexibility has not been high enough as to be able to reducethe environmental dependency factor as much as in Saravak. Fieldstudies in Nasirabad Village indicated that the “adaptation” approachhas been exercised via change in farming and harvesting methods. Thishas lowered the residents' dependency on the environment since thenew farming methods require less use of groundwater.

The residents of Nasirabad have also attempted to increase theirenvironmental flexibility by capitalizing on the strategic location of thevillage. Ahmad, one of the village residents, said that since he was notable to continue farming he now sells homemade products and junkfood alongside Tehran-Hamadan Broadway, which is two kilometersaway from Nasirabad Village (Fig. 14) and is the main road connectingTehran Province (Iran's capital) to the western parts. Ahmad believeshis current occupation to be physically and mentally more pleasantthan farming.

Environmental conditions were different in Hajiabad, Akleh andEbrahimabad. The residents of these three villages were highly de-pendent on the environment through using groundwater to cultivatetheir farmlands. Environmental flexibility in these three villages wasnot high enough to reduce environmental dependency to an extent si-milar to Saravak Village. Rahman, a 63-year-old villager from Hajiabad,said that the well he had dug ten years ago to water his wheat had the

Fig. 12. Geographical location and an interior view of Saravak AsphaltManufacture (source: Google Earth and authors, 2015).

Fig. 13. Geographical of Saravak Asphalt Manufacture and other Asphalt'sManufacturies (source: Google Earth and authors, 2015).

M. Khanian et al. Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

8

discharge rate of eight inches which was sufficient for irrigating 13hectares by traditional methods and the product easily fed a ten-member family. Ever since, the discharge rate has decreased to one anda half inches, which can barely provide the required water for theconsumption and cleaning needs of Rahman and his wife as well as

watering a few fruit trees. Rahman said that except for his wife theother members of the family have migrated elsewhere (Fig. 15). Itseems that the environment plays a significant role in initiating andfacilitating the transformation process by means of taking away the lifepatterns which have formed over thousands of years and introducingnew ones.

Mamahan, which is now one of the districts of Famenin City ac-cording to the latest comprehensive plan, experienced a suddengroundwater level reduction in 2002, representing a significant catalystfor transformation within the region. But, the sudden change in itsgroundwater level and the increased temperature and reduced rainfallseem to have had little effect on the lifestyle of Mamahan's residents.The reason appears to be that only a few residents were farmers andmost of them had administrative and industrial jobs. The reduced levelof environmental dependency appears to have had a significant re-lationship with the transformation process, too. Our results suggest thatthe more environmental dependency there is in a village, the morelikely people are to embark on a social transformation. However, if thesurrounding environment is “flexible”, such flexibility can removemany obstacles and difficulties of the transformation process resultingfrom environmental dependency.

5.2. The influence of economic factors in influencing the transformationprocess

The decline of groundwater levels and the diminishment of farming,which was once the main source of income for the rural population ofFamenin County, were found to have disturbed the livelihood patternsof the villagers. For example, Roghayeh, an octogenarian resident ofNasirabad Village, said: “Ever since all the barns and fertilizer storages

Fig. 14. Nasirabad is favorably located near the broadway which connectsTehran Province to the western parts of Iran. (source: Google Earth، 2015).

Fig. 15. Environmental dependency and inflexibility in Hajiabad, Akleh and Ebrahimabad (source: Google Earth, 2015).

M. Khanian et al. Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

9

in our houses became empty and since there is no trace of farmingequipment and livestock in the alleys, this place can't be calledNasirabad anymore.” It was as if Roghayeh thought that rural livingmust be linked to farming and its infrastructure. The inhabitants of eachvillage in Famenin had developed a specific lifestyle over many decadesbased on the climatic conditions of their environment and there wassome type of direct relationship between their livelihood and the sur-rounding environment. However, climatic and environmental changesover the previous few decades have disturbed these relationships andpatterns.

A study of Nasirabad, Ebrahimabad, Akleh and Hajiabad indicatedthat there were no local corporations or economic institutes except forthe farming community in the villages, and considering that the occu-pations of the residents have been heavily dependent on farming, theeconomic structure of the villages has become very fragile. A weakenedlivelihood in these four villages has forced many residents to migrate tobig cities (Famenin's Census Bureau, 2011). The interview results in-dicated that almost all the people who had migrated from the villageeither used to be farmers or their jobs were somehow related tofarming. Furthermore, interviewees stated that because of lack of tradeunits or local organizations able to provide jobs for the village residents,the farmers decided to migrate to cities and work in urban workshopsand factories. For example, a worker in Akleh said: “after drought…mybrothers and families did not find a job in Famenin, migrated to Tehranand Saveh”. He blamed government and Famenin city council for theabsence of local firms and factories for workers who did not havespecial skills.

Interviews with the current residents indicated that the quality oflife was very low in these four villages. The residents have attempted toadapt to the new conditions by keeping their financial expectations aslow as possible. For example, Fatima, a 52-year-old resident ofEbrahimabad Village, said that because of diminishment of farming, theonly income sources for her family were from government charity do-nations and the occasional laboring of her husband in the neighboringcities. Fatima also said that because of their low income, their mealsincluded only little meat and rice and that her children did not go toschool anymore to avoid the costs. Additionally, the absence of anylocal corporation or economic institute in these villages has forced re-sidents to seek unofficial jobs outside their village. For example, Ali andhis brother Reza now sells junk food and other consumables to travelerson the roadside, which is considered an illegal act and risks being finedby government organizations (Fig. 16).

The dependency of the local jobs on climatic conditions, lack of anylocal corporation in the villages and lack of any organized financialsupport from the government, have prevented the residents of the vil-lages under study from forming a solid economic structure in thetransformation process. The economic factors were described duringthe interviews as an obstacle for the transformation of these villages.For example, one of the residents of Ebrahimabad Village said: “Manyresidents of the village still love to live here despite ruination of farmingbut since the villagers know no other job than farming and since theyno longer have any hope of making a living, they prefer to migrate tocities with their families.” Despite the current circumstances, some fa-milies have attempted to attain a stable economic condition, but are onthe verge of failure because of insufficient capacity and lack of support.For example, Hussein, a 25-year-old agriculture graduate, said that eversince he graduated from university, he has been trying to build agreenhouse near the village with the help of his cousins. Hussein be-lieves that shifting from products with high water requirements (e.g.wheat, watermelon and alfalfa) to products with low water require-ments (e.g. saffron) could, if compatible with the climate in Famenin,reinstate agriculture to the region.

However, they have been unsuccessful so far due to financial pro-blems and lack of proper organization. The economic conditions in thevillage of Saravak however were different. Before the drought Saravak'seconomy was completely dependent on agriculture and climatic factors.

The asphalt manufacturing company was established by the residentswithout help from government organizations.

This has helped the village attain a stable state and become rela-tively successful in the economic aspect of the transformation process.Zahra is a 55-year-old woman whose husband works in the stonecrushing division of Saravak Asphalt Manufacture. She said that duringthe past 10 years her husband has been employed in the factory, theirlife has been more stable because of a regular monthly salary. Where asin comparison, the farming wage was usually only received once a year.However, she says that their life as farmers was livelier and moreflexible than their current lifestyle, which she refers to as “urbanized”.

Mamahan village has experienced little economic change since thedrought as its residents were not economically dependent on agri-culture or climate change. Hussein, who had been running a con-venience store for the past 10 years, said: “Since few Mamahan re-sidents are farmers and most of them work in the service industry, nonotable change has occurred in their lives because of the droughts.”.The post-drought conditions had even paved the way for some residentsto earn more money. For example, Kazem, a 35-year-old villager, saidthat diminishment of farming in the region had compelled manydwellers to relocate to other regions. As a result, transportation hasbecome a relatively profitable job. Kazem now transports passengerswith his car on the Famenin-Saveh-Qom road (the three main desti-nations for Famenin immigrants) and easily supports his family with

Fig. 16. A store and stands established by the Nasirabad local residents alongthe main highway that has been destroyed by government organizations(source: Authors, 2016).

M. Khanian et al. Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

10

this new job.

5.3. The influence of social factors in influencing the transformation process

Unlike the previous factors (environmental and economic), socialfactors operated very differently in the villages of Famenin County.Results from the interviews suggested that environmental factors in-itiated transformation and influenced the process until there was acomplete alteration of the system. While economic factors affected theinitiation of transformation, they continued their role by determiningthe possible paths of transformation. Social factors were not able toinitiate transformation or determine its paths by themselves; but, theyhad a significant role in facilitating, slowing down or preventing theprocess. For example, field studies in Saravak indicated that place at-tachment and social capital were very strong in this village. It seemsthat Saravak's strong social capital, which has a long history due to thevillage's relatively large population, has contributed to the formation ofa local corporation, Saravak Asphalt Manufacture, by residents.According to the residents of the village, this factory was establishednearly two decades ago by one of the locals as a small workshop.However, its development in the past ten years had been accelerateddue to the abundant human resources in the village and the willingnessof the village residents to work at the factory. Interviews indicated thatevery resident of the village cared about the profitability of and anyevent concerning the factory; they were proud of its existence in thevillage.

Results also indicated that place attachment was strong in this vil-lage. For example, Abbas, a truck driver in the asphalt factory who has arelatively comfortable life, said that he is not willing to leave Saravakunder any circumstances since he would miss the sunsets in his village.Notwithstanding, some residents (especially the elderly) believe thatthe new conditions have created some problems. For example,Alimardan, a 75-year-old resident of Saravak Village, believed that thecurrent lifestyle in Saravak is “soulless” and the village is now devoid ofits previous cordiality and intimacy. He said that the social capital andtrust among the residents have drastically decreased because of di-minishment of farming. Despite this, results suggest that, on the basis ofthe overall condition of the village, the social aspect of transformationhas developed successfully.

Studies in the four villages of Nasirabad, Akleh, Hajiabad andEbrahimabad indicated that many residents have a strong sense of at-tachment to their place of living. For example, a 40-year-old womanwho lives in Ebrahimabad Village said: “Whenever I go to Tehran tovisit my siblings, I miss the village so much that after a few days Ibecome anxious and aggressive. Even if we don't find anything to eat inthe village, it's still better than going to the city. A human lives by hisroots; and this village is our root”. Because of the strong sense of place,many residents have not yet migrated despite multiple problems; theyare willing to endure hardship if they can live on their own homelands.Residents made comments such as, “We must preserve the village at anycost and not migrate”. Unlike the economic and environmental factorswhich have initiated the transformation process in these four villages,the social factor of place attachment has in fact facilitated the process.Mohammadali, a 34-year-old resident of Hajiabad Village, said that hisbrother works in a furniture workshop near Tehran. He has askedMohammadali to leave Hajiabad and join him, but Mohammadali hasnot been able to convince himself to leave the village despite the goodincome which awaits him in the workshop since he believes the villageis now a part of him.

An analysis of social capital in these four villages indicates thatalthough social capital is strongly present among the local residents, ithas been unable to facilitate the transformation process due to the smallsize of the villages and the fact that social relationships are limited tofamilies. Information extracted from the interviews with the residentsof these four villages suggests that the social structure within thesevillages has been formed upon a tribal and family system, which can be

referred to as a macro family. While this single-family structure hasgenerated strong social capital among its members, we were unable toobserve how it affected the transformation process in a significantmanner.

6. Summary and conclusions

Many small communities or villages in agricultural regions allaround the globe have been directly impacted by climate change. Manyare not able to support rural life using current systems, structures andpatterns, and will have to transform. The initiation and success of theirtransformation process will be affected by economic, environmentaland social factors. Our study has provided insights into the role thateach of these factors play. Results presented in Table 2 highlight howenvironmental, economic and social factors can work to impede or fa-cilitate the transformation process depending on the nature of eachfactor. For example, if a social factor such as place attachment washigh, then the transformation process can be impeded.

Due to the particular research setting, each sample as a humansettlement is subject to different environmental, economic and socialconditions. In these instances, developing different scenarios can provebeneficial for standardizing and categorizing findings and allows us toapply the findings to similar cases. Here after we describe two scenariosfor the region that enable us to classify results and clarify what theymean for climate adaptation processes more generally.

6.1. First scenario

Transformation success, or transformation to a ‘desirable place’occurs with difficulty when a village's life pattern and its residents' jobsand economic conditions exists in an environment that is not flexibleand has no existing local corporations. Typically, local people willchoose a reduced quality of life rather than a transformation driven re-location. In such cases, (a) the absence (or reduction) of place attach-ment and social capital results in migration from and gradual aban-donment of the village, or (b) the presence of place attachment andlocal social capital results in the decision of some villagers to stay andcontinue to live in the area albeit with reduced quality of life. We foundsome evidence that local residents in this scenario transformed from afarming lifestyle to a more ‘urbanized’ lifestyle, such as the setting up ofretail outlets, often illegally, along the highway. We found some evi-dence that farmers transformed from using irrigated farming practicesto dryland agriculture. We were not able to provide evidence of anyother transformation within this scenario.

6.2. Second scenario

If a village's life pattern and the villagers' jobs and economic con-ditions are dependent on the environment, with environmental flex-ibility and local corporations, then transformations of relocations occurbut, at a slower pace. Sense of place and social capital can further in-fluence the villagers by, respectively, decreasing and increasing the rate

Table 2Trend and effects of environmental, economic and social factors in the trans-formation process.

Factor Factor Impact's type Transformation Effects

environmental Dependency Impedea

Flexibility Facilitateb

economic Local Corporation FacilitateJob Dependency Impede

social Place Attachment ImpedeSocial Capital Facilitate (in big size village)

a Impede is to prevent transformation.b Facilitate is to ease off transformation.

M. Khanian et al. Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

11

of relocation. The two scenarios and their characteristics have beenpresented in Table 3.

If a village's life pattern and the villagers' jobs and economic con-ditions are not dependent on the environment and changes thereto, thesocial transformation process is not felt and the villagers continue life asbefore. Among the villages studied in this research, Mamahan is a goodexample for this case.

In this study, we show that how environmental, economic and socialfactors can influence social system transformation. Only some aspectsof each factor are examined. Many other aspects are also likely to beimportant such as identity, family circumstances, age, and access tocredit (within social factors).

Appendix A. Supplementary data

Supplementary data related to this article can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.05.006.

References

Adger, W.N., 2003. Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change.Econ. Geogr. 387–404. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1944-8287.2003.tb00220.x.

Afrakhteh, H., Armand, M., Askari Bozayeh, F., 2015. Analysis of factors affectingadoption and application of sprinkler irrigation by farmers in Famenin County, Iran.Int. J. Agric. Manag. Dev. 5 (2), 89–99.

Agricultural Jihad of Hamadan Province, 2012. Annual Performance Report. Deputy ofWater and Soil. (In Persian).

Ajakaiye, O., de Janvry, A., 2010. Agricultural sector performance and a green revolutionin Africa: an overview. J. Afr. Econ. 19 (Suppl. 2), ii3–ii6.

Amery, H.A., Wolf, A.T., 2000. Water in the Middle East: a Geography of Peace.University of Texas Press, Austin, Tex.

Amirkhani, S., Chizari, M., 2010. Factors influencing drought management in VaraminTownship. In: Third Congress of Agricultural Extension and Natural Resources, pp.107–118.

Berhanu, B., Seleshi, Y., Melesse, A.M., 2014. SurfaceWater and Groundwater Resourcesof Ethiopia: Potentials and Challenges of Water Resources Development. Springer,Netherlands, pp. 97–117.

Chhetri, N., Chaudhary, P., Tiwari, P.R., Yadaw, R.B., 2012. Institutional and technolo-gical innovation: understanding agricultural adaptation to climate change in Nepal.Appl. Geogr. 33, 142–150.

Committee on Climate Change, 2009. Meeting Carbon Budgets Ð the Need for a Step;Progress Report to Parliament, 12th October 2009. TSO, London.

Cumming, D.H.M., 1999. Living off “biodiversity”: whose land, whose resources andwhere? Environ. Dev. Econ. 4, 220–226.

Dai, A., 2011. Drought under global warming: a review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Rev.Climate Change 2 (1), 45–65.

Dehghani, M., Valadan Zoej, M.J., Entezam, I., Mansourian, A., Saatchi, S., 2009. InSARmonitoring of progressive land subsidence in Neyshabour, Northeast Iran. Geophys.J. Int. 178, 47–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04135.x.

Dehghani, M., Valadan Zoej, M.J., Hooper, A., Hanssen, R.F., Entezam, I., Saatchi, S.,2013. Hybrid conventional and persistent scatterer SAR interferometry for landsubsidence monitoring in the Tehran Basin, Iran. ISPRS J. Photogramm. Rem. Sens.79, 157–170. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2013.02.012.

Delavar, A., 2006. Theoretical and Practical Bases for Researching in Social andHumanitarian Sciences. Roshd, Tehran.

Eakin, H.C., Wehbe, M.B., 2009. Linking local vulnerability to system sustainability in aresilience framework: two cases from Latin America. Climatic Change 93 (3–4),355–377.

Eriksen, S., Silva, J.A., 2009. The vulnerability context of a savanna area in Mozambique:household drought coping strategies and responses to economic change. Environ. Sci.Pol. 12 (1), 33–52.

Famenin's Census Bureau, 2011. General in Formation County. Retrieved from: http://www.sabteahval-.ir/fa/showpages.aspx?mid=MjA4&spi=NTM= (In Persian).

Fitts, C.R., 2002. Groundwater Science. Academic Press, pp. 450.Folke, C., Jansson, Å., Rockström, J., Olsson, P., Carpenter, S.R., Chapin III, F.S., et al.,

2011. Reconnecting to the biosphere. Ambio 40 (7), 719–738.Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 2009. In: Freken, K. (Ed.), Irrigation in the

Middle East Region in Figures: AQUASTAT Survey, 2008. FAO, Rome, Italy 23–122,185–214, 339–374.

Ford, J.D., Smit, B., 2004. A framework for assessing the vulnerability of communities inthe Canadian Arctic to risks associated with climate change. Arctic 389–400.

Forootan, E., et al., 2014. Separation of large scale water storage patterns over Iran usingGRACE, altimetry and hydrological data. Remote Sens. Environ. 140, 580–595.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2013.09.025.

Furedi, F., 2007. The changing meaning of disaster. Area 39, 482–489.Ghulam, A., Qin, Q., Kusky, T.M., Li, Z.-L., 2008. A re-examination of perpendicular

drought indices. Int. J. Rem. Sens. 29 (20), 6037–6044.Hamadan Regional Water Administration, 2015. Periodic Reports.Heim, R.R., 2002. A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United

States. B. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83 (8), 1149–1165.Integrated Regional Information Networks, 2010. Syria: Drought Pushing Millions into

Poverty, 9 September 2010. Available at: http://www.irinnews.org/Report/90442/SYRIA-Drought-pushing-millions-into-poverty.

Iran Meteorological Organization, 2018. National Meteorological Census.Kahvand, M., Gheitarani, N., Khanian, M.O.J.T.A.B.A., Ghadarjani, R.A.Z.I.E.H., 2015.

Urban solid waste landfill selection by SDSS. Case study: Hamadan. Environ. Protect.Eng. 41 (2).

Karimi, H., Taheri, K., 2010. Hazards and mechanism of sinkholes on Kabudar Ahang andFamenin plains of Hamadan, Iran. Nat. Hazards 55 (2), 481–499.

Katouzian, M.A., 1978. Oil versus agriculture a case of dual resource depletion in Iran. J.Peasant Stud. 5, 347–369. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03066157808438052.

Khanian, M., Bolouhar, B., Gheitarany, N., Nezhad, S.M., 2013. Studying the causes ofvitality in traditional markets of Iran (case study: shoemaking order of central marketof Hamadan). World Appl. Sci. J. 22 (6), 831–835.

Khanian, M., Serpoush, B., Gheitarani, N., 2017. Balance between place attachment andmigration based on subjective adaptive capacity in response to climate change: thecase of Famenin County in Western Iran. Clim. Dev. 1–14.

Larsen, K., Gunnarsson-Östling, U., Westholm, E., 2011. Environmental scenarios andlocal-global level of community engagement: environmental justice, jams, institu-tions and innovation. Futures 43 (4), 413–423.

Madani, K., 2014a. Iran's water crisis: is there any hope? In: Presentation at the Iran'sNatural Heritage: a Catalyst Symposium to Spark Measurable Change. RoyalGeographical Society, London, UK January 18, 2014, Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIY3JErgEqY.

Madani, K., 2014b. Water management in Iran: what is causing the looming crisis? J.Environ. Stud. Sci. 4 (4), 315–328.

Manuel-Navarrete, D., 2013. 26 human-environmental integration and social power inglobal environmental change research. A changing environment for human security:transformative approaches to research. Policy and Action 305.

Manuel-Navarrete, D., Pelling, M., 2015. Subjectivity and the politics of transformation inresponse to development and environmental change. Global Environ. Change 35,558–569.

Marshall, N.A., 2011. Assessing resource dependency on the rangelands as a measure ofclimate sensitivity. Soc. Nat. Resour. 24, 1105–1115.

Marshall, N.A., Fenton, D.M., Marshall, P.A., Sutton, S.G., 2007. How resource de-pendency can influence social resilience within a primary resource industry. RuralSociol. 72 (3), 359–390.

Marshall, N.A., Park, S.E., Adger, W.N., Brown, K., Howden, S.M., 2012. Transformationalcapacity and the influence of place and identity. Environ. Res. Lett. 7 (3), 034022.

Marshall, N., Tobin, R., Marshall, P., Gooch, M., Hobday, A., 2013. Social vulnerability ofmarine resource users to extreme weather events. Ecosystems 16 (5), 797–809.http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10021-013-9651-6.

Mccarthy, J.J., Canziani, O.F., Leary, N.A., Dokken, D.J., White, K.S. (Eds.), 2001. ClimateChange 2001 ‐ Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Contribution of WorkingGroup II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Michel, D., Pandya, A., Hasnain, S.I., Sticklor, R., Panuganti, S., 2012. Water Challengesand Cooperative Response in the Middle East and North Africa. Brookings Institution,Washington, D.C. Available at: http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2012/11/water-security-middle-east-iwf.

Nattagh, N., 1986. Agriculture and Regional Development in Iran. Middle East and NorthAfrican Studies Press, Outwell.

Nelson, D.R., Adger, W.N., Brown, K., 2007. Adaptation to environmental change: con-tributions of a resilience framework. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 32, 395–419.

Nosrati, K., Eeckhaut, M.V.D., 2012. Assessment of groundwater quality using multi-variate statistical techniques in Hashtgerd Plain, Iran. Environ. Earth Sci. 65,331–344.

Table 3Scenarios of transformation extracted from research conducted in the villages under study.

Scenario 1 Environmentdependency

Job dependency Environmentinflexibility

Local corporation don'texisted

Social factor donot existed

Failure Transformation Migration

Social factorexisted

Failure Transformation Low Quality of Life

Scenario 2 Environmentdependency

Job dependency Environmentflexibility

Local corporationexisted

Social factor donot existed

SuccessfulTransformation

Slow Transformation

Social factorexisted

SuccessfulTransformation

Quick Transformation

M. Khanian et al. Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

12

O'Brien, K., 2012. Global environmental change II from adaptation to deliberate trans-formation. Prog. Hum. Geogr. 36 (5), 667–676.

O'Brien, K., Reams, J., Caspari, A., Dugmore, A., Faghihimani, M., Fazey, I., et al., 2013.You say you want a revolution? Transforming education and capacity building inresponse to global change. Environ. Sci. Pol. 28, 48–59.

OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, 2011. Université catholique de Louvain –Brussels – Belgium. Available from: http://www.emdat.be.

Osbahr, H., Twyman, C., Adger, W.N., Thomas, D.S., 2008. Effective livelihood adapta-tion to climate change disturbance: scale dimensions of practice in Mozambique.Geoforum 39 (6), 1951–1964.

Park, S.E., Marshall, N.A., Jakku, E., Dowd, A.M., Howden, S.M., Mendham, E., Fleming,A., 2012. Informing adaptation responses to climate change through theories oftransformation. Global Environ. Change 22 (1), 115–126.

Paul, C.J., Weinthal, E.S., Bellemare, M.F., Jeuland, M.A., 2016. Social capital, trust, andadaptation to climate change: evidence from rural Ethiopia. Global Environ. Change36, 124–138.

Pelling, M., 2010. Adaptation to Climate Change: from Resilience to Transformation.Routledge.

Pelling, M., 2011. Adapting to Climate Change, from Resilience to Adaptation.Pelling, M., High, C., Dearing, J., Smith, D., 2008. Shadow spaces for social learning: a

relational understanding of adaptive capacity to climate change within organisations.Environ. Plann. A 40 (4), 867–884.

Rahimianzarif, E., Moradi, M., 2018. Designing integrated management criteria of crea-tive ideation based on fuzzy delphi analytical hierarchy process. Int. J. Fuzzy Syst. 20(3), 877–900.

Rahmani, A., Khanian, M., Mosalsal, A., 2013. Prioritize and location finding land forhousing development in the satellite cities of using the AHP model (case study: Baharcity in Hamadan province). J. Basic Appl. Sci. Res. 3 (1), 148–160.

Razandi, Y., Pourghasemi, H.R., SamaniNeisani, N., Rahmati, O., 2015. Application ofanalytical hierarchy process, frequency ratio, and certainty factor models forgroundwater potential mapping using GIS. Earth Sci. Inform. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-015-0220-8.

Sabziparvar, A.A., 2003. The Analysis of Aridity and Meteorological Drought Indices inWest of Iran. Research report. Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamadan, Iran.

Seyf, A., 2006. On the importance of irrigation in Iranian agriculture. Middle E. Stud. 42,659–673. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00263200600642399.

Shahabfar, A., Ghulam, A., Eitzinger, J., 2012. Drought monitoring in Iran using the

perpendicular drought indices. Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf. 18, 119–127.Smit, B., Burton, I., Klein, R.J.T., 1998. The science of adaptation: a framework for as-

sessment. In: Paper Presented at Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeWorkshop, ‘Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change’, San José, Costa Rica, 29March - 1 April 1998.

Statistical Centre of Iran, 2011. General Census of Population and Housing. Retrievedfrom: http://www.amar.org.ir/Default.aspx?tabid=1160 (In Persian).

Sullivan, P.J., 2010. Syria's Liquid Worries, in Circle of Blue Water News. Available at:http://www.circleofblue.org, Accessed date: 16 February 2010.

Sun, Y., Solomon, S., Dai, A., Portmann, R.W., 2006. How often does it rain? J. Clim. 19(6), 916–934.

Talja, Sanna, 1999. Analyzing Qualitative Interview Data: the Discourse Analytic Method.Library & Information Science Research, Elsevier, pp. 459–477 Volume, November1999.

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Foreign Agriculture Service, 2011. Official USDAEstimates of Production, Supply and Distribution of Crops in Turkey, Syria and Iraq.Available at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx, Accessed date: 8January 2011.

Van Aalst, M.K., Cannon, T., Burton, I., 2008. Community level adaptation to climatechange: the potential role of participatory community risk assessment. GlobalEnviron. Change 18 (1), 165–179.

Walker, B., Holling, C.S., Carpenter, S.R., Kinzig, A., 2004. Resilience, adaptability andtransformability in social–ecological systems. Ecol. Soc. 9 (9). http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss2/art5 <Go to ISI> ://000228062200010.

Westley, F., Olsson, P., Folke, C., Homer-Dixon, T., Vredenburg, H., Loorbach, D., et al.,2011. Tipping toward sustainability: emerging pathways of transformation. AMBIO J.Hum. Environ. 40 (7), 762–780.

Wolf, A.T., Newton, J.T., 2007. Case Study Transboundary Dispute Resolution: the Tigris-euphrates Basin. Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database (TFDD) Oregon StateUniversity Available at: http://www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu/.

Zahedi Mazandarani, M., Zahedi Abghari, A., 1996. Rural poverty and vulnerability(identification of rural vulnerable groups). Agri. Econom. Dev. 4, 11–86.

Zehtabian, G., Khosravi, H., Ghodsi, M., 2010. High Demand in a Land of Water Scarcity:Iran. Chapter 5. Springer, Netherlands, pp. 75–86.

Zakerhaghighi, K., Khanian, M., Gheitarani, N., 2015. Subjective quality of life; assess-ment of residents of informal settlements in Iran (a case study of Hesar ImamKhomeini, Hamedan). Appl. Res. Qual. Life 10.

M. Khanian et al. Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

13