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Transcript of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism James J.F. Forest, Ph.D. UMass Lowell and Joint Special...
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Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism
James J.F. Forest, Ph.D.UMass Lowell and Joint Special
Operations University
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Suggested Reading Material
Published 2012 by James Forest and Brigadier General (retired) Russell Howard
Foreword by Michael Sheehan, DASD for SO/LIC
Preview materials available at http://www.WMDTerror.net
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Defining WMDWeapons that have a relatively large-scale impact on
people, property, and/or infrastructure.
WMD are defined in US law (18 USC §2332a) as: (A) any destructive device as defined in section 921 of this title
(i.e. explosive device);(B) any weapon that is designed or intended to cause death or
serious bodily injury through the release, dissemination, or impact of toxic or poisonous chemicals, or their precursors;
(C) any weapon involving a biological agent, toxin, or vector (as those terms are defined in section 178 of this title)
(D) any weapon that is designed to release radiation or radioactivity at a level dangerous to human life.
CBRN weapons: chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear
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1) Chemical Weapons
Chemical Weapons use the toxic properties of chemical substances to cause physical or psychological harm to an enemy
• Choking and blood agents (like chlorine, phosgene, fentanyl gas) cause respiratory damage and asphyxiation
• Blistering agents (like mustard gas and lewisite) cause painful burns requiring immediate medical attention
• Nerve gases (like sarin, tabun, VX) degrade the functioning of the nervous system, causing a loss of muscle control, respiratory failure, and eventually death– a few droplets absorbed through the skin can kill in minutes.
• Others: Incapacitants (disorient, hallucinations); Binary
Can be delivered through bombs, rockets, artillery shells, spray tanks, missile warheads, open containers, train/truck wreck . . .
Lots of industrial uses for chemicals – most widely available form of WMD
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2) Biological Weapons
Disseminate agents of infectious diseases to harm or kill others
• Bacteria (like Anthrax, Brucellosis, Tularemia, Plague)• Viruses (Smallpox, Marburg, Yellow Fever) • Rickettsia (Typhus fever, Spotted fever) • Fungi (the molds that cause stem rust of wheat and rye)• Toxins (like Ricin, Botulinum and Saxitoxin) aka “midspectrum”
Key attributes include:
• Infectivity - the ability of a pathogen to establish an infection• Virulence/Pathogenicity - the ability of that infection to produce a disease• Toxicity - the damage to humans or agriculture that can be caused by the disease• The incubation period between infection and symptoms of the disease• Transmissibility – how easily it can be transmitted from person to person • The lethality or killing power of that disease• The stability and resilience of the pathogen• Relatively cost-effective and can be hundreds to thousands of times more potent
than chemical agents by weight
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Variety of Threat Scenarios
Biological agents can be distributed through • Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems• Pressurized sprayers mounted on trucks, airplanes, UAVs• Food/water contamination• Envelopes/packages• Infected blankets or clothing• Explosive munitions
Strikes against the agricultural sector• Potential use of infectious agents as bio-weapons• Potential to trigger large-scale socio-economic impact• Attack could take form of toxins/bacteria directly introduced
into the food chain, or a viral strike targeting the cattle industry
Humans can be a means for delivery/dissemination as well as the victims
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3) Radiological Weapons
• RDD: any means used to disperse radioactive material.
• Can use conventional explosives, an aerial sprayer, or other means
• RED: highly radioactive materials placed somewhere while unshielded
• Locations where many people would be exposed (subways, airports, office buildings, indoor stadiums)
• Radioactivity: When certain atoms decay, they release excess energy• Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Neutron• Shorter “half-life” (faster decay) means higher radioactivity• When these substances are processed into a usable form, such as pellets
or powder, they are called radioactive sources • Many industrial uses: research, cancer treatments, power source
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4) Nuclear Weapons
• Unique in their explosive energy from nuclear fission or fusion: • Uranium-235 first fissile material discovered• Destructive power up to 50 megatons
– 1,000 tons of TNT = 1 kiloton
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Analyzing the WMD Threat
High
Low
Low
High Capabilities & Opportunities
Intentions
Where do your “favorite” terrorist groups belong in this diagram?
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A Model for Analysis
High
Low
Low
High Capabilities & Opportunities
Intentions
What do we know?
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Capabilities
Group capabilities depend upon:• Knowledge and skills of organization’s members• Finances• Environmental context
– Local grievances that motivate terrorist group recruitment, local sympathizes, etc.
– access to materials, safe haven, etc.
• Commitment to learning (from own mistakes or successes, from other group strategies, tactics, etc.)
What terrorist groups have high capabilities? How do we know?
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Opportunities to Acquire
• Dual use problem of many technologies, CBR materials
• AQ Khan nuclear proliferation network
• Transfer of an intact weapon from a state sponsor
• The theft or purchase of materials to fabricate and detonate a crude WMD
• WMD designs, instruction manuals available online
“Pre-positioned WMD”
• Nuclear power plants
• Chemical storage facilities
• Bio-technology labs
• Dams, water protection infrastructure (e.g., Katrina)
• Urban transportation of toxic chemicals
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Opportunities to Acquire
• 1987: Individuals in Goinoia, Brazil find old discarded x-ray machine with canister of “glowing material”; kills 4 people, hundreds sick (cesium-137)
• 1998: 19 small tubes of cesium are stolen from a Greensboro, NC hospital, and have never been recovered
• 1999: Thieves try to steal 200g of radioactive material from a chemical factory in Grozny, Chechnya
• 2001: strontium-90 stolen from aging Russian lighthouse
• 2003: Attempt to smuggle (highly radioactive) cesium-137 and strontium-90 from Georgia to Turkey
• 2003: Chinese doctor Gu Tianming attacks colleague with iridium-192
• 2003: Schoolteacher in Bangkok arrested attempting to sell cesium-137
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A Model for Analysis
High
Low
Low
High Capabilities & Opportunities
Intentions
What do we know?
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Intentions
• “The probability of a terrorist organization using a chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapon, or high-yield explosives, has increased significantly during the past decade.”
– 2003 US National Strategy for Combating Terrorism
• “Terrorists have declared their intention to acquire and use weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to inflict even more catastrophic attacks against the United States . . . and other interests around the world. ”
– 2006 US National Strategy for Combating Terrorism
“Dozens of identified domestic and international terrorists and terrorist groups have expressed their intent to obtain and use WMD.”
- Denis Blair, Director of National Intelligence, 2010
“There is a high likelihood of some type of WMD terrorist attack by the year 2013.”
- Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism, 2008
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Indications of CBRN intent
• 1990s: Chechen rebels make several threats against nuclear power plants
• 1996: John J. Ford, Joseph Mazzuchelli, & Edward Zabo plot to kill 3 New York politicians by putting radium in their food, cars, and toothpaste
• 1998: Chechen rebels attempt to detonate dirty bomb on railway
• 2003: an apartment in north London has raw ingredients for making cyanide and ricin, as well as instruction manuals
• 2004: seven pounds of cyanide salt are found during a raid on a Baghdad house reportedly connected with al Qaeda
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Indications of CBRN intent
• November 2004, a “chemical laboratory” is discovered in Fallujah containing potassium cyanide, hydrochloric acid, and sulfuric acid
• Setptember 2007: Australian home-grown terrorist group allegedly plans to attack the Lucas Heights nuclear reactor with rocket launchers
• August 2008: FARC attempts to sell uranium, but not “weapons-grade”
• December 2008: Right-wing extremist in Maine orders radioactive materials through the Internet, along with precursors for high-grade chemical explosives
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However . . .
History of WMD attacks by non-state actors is very thin . . .
• 1984, The Dalles, Oregon: Rajneeshes poison locals with salmonella
• June 1990, Sri Lanka: Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) used chlorine gas in its assault on a Sri Lankan Armed Forces camp at East Kiran
• Japan, 1994-1995: Aum Shinrikyo uses sarin nerve agent for attacks in Matsumoto and Tokyo
• U.S., September-October 2001: anthrax attacks through U.S. mail
• Russia, 1995: Chechen rebels planted a dirty bomb in Moscow's Ismailovsky Park, but did not detonate
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Theories
Many different theories proposed as to why so few WMD terrorist groups have crossed the WMD threshold
• Practical Constraints Theories
• Strategic Constraints Theories
• Environmental Constraints Theories
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Practical Constraints
• The more complex the weapon, the lower the probability of success
• WMDs are far more expensive, difficult to acquire and handle
• For the most part, we can’t really test these weapons to make sure we’ve got the right formula, delivery mechanism
• “These weapons are just too complicated . . . ”
Probability of Success
Complexityof Weapon
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Strategic Constraints
• Limited (if any) strategic benefit from developing, acquiring, using a WMD compared to other weapons
– Depends on ideology, local context; will a WMD help us achieve our objectives faster/better than other means?
• Could be counterproductive
– Deemed repulsive by core constituencies, general public– Provoke massive government response
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Weapon Effects
Different interests according to weapon type
• Biological and chemical weapons can be deployed silently. Effects produced by chemical and biological weapons are usually delayed and spread over time.
• Radiological weapons involve both explosion and long-term effects
• Nuclear weapons are unique in their explosive energy (derived from fission) which can cause catastrophic damage and long-term radiation
• Terrorists prefer spectacular, massive impact, instant worldwide publicity, shock & awe effect
• Thus, nuclear or radiological may be more likely, but are more significantly more difficult
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Environmental Constraints
• Access to core materials needed to construct WMD is difficult
– In many cases, may want to attack in foreign country
– Either need to smuggle a weapon across border, or access materials and manufacture weapon in unfamiliar territory
• International community is making huge strides in non-proliferation, intelligence and interdiction
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Projecting the Future WMD Threat
High
Low
Low
High Capabilities & Opportunities
Intentions What factors would lead a group to move from point A to point B?
A
BWhat could diminish practical,
strategic, or environmental constraints?
What kinds of radicalization would indicate a higher WMD threat?– What do we look for? How do we know?
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Affecting the Future WMD Threat
• How can we influence groups to stay away from the WMD threshold?
• What can be done to exacerbate the practical, strategic, environmental constraints they already face?
• Other ideas?
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Final Thoughts
• The threat is real, but within narrow parameters
• Most important dimensions:– Motivations / Intentions– Capabilities– Opportunities– Constraints (theirs & ours)
• There are many ways in which we can contain and reduce the threat of WMD Terrorism
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Open Discussion