Weaning Automobiles off Gasoline onto Electricity Peter E Gunther Senior Research Fellow Connecticut...
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Transcript of Weaning Automobiles off Gasoline onto Electricity Peter E Gunther Senior Research Fellow Connecticut...
Weaning Automobiles off Gasoline onto Electricity
Peter E GuntherSenior Research Fellow
Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis
(613) [email protected]
Context• Electric Vehicles• Electric Generation• Peak Rates and Systems• Solar Rates• Strategy – Solar, Bio or Combination• Profit Potential• Timing of Adoption – 98.8% of New by 2031 or 2050
• Modeling• Possible Impacts
Electric Vehicles• 8 Hours to Fully Charge
• Distance Exceeds Daily Average
of over 75% of U.S. Drivers
• All Electric Drive
• Gasoline Backup Generator
• Can Remember Time Charged
• Into Production 2010
• Emerging Competitors May Be
Better i.e. Go Further
CT Registered Vehicles
2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
CT Vehicle Registrations and New Sales (units)
Registered Vehicle Sales
CT Electricity Generation
Current # in MW• 2 Nuclear 2,035• 2 Coal-Fired 553• 26 Oil-Fired 2,487• 14 Natural Gas 1,463• 26 Hydro 149• Solid Waste Fac. 184
PROBLEM: IF ALL AIRCONDITINERS RUN THEY DEMAND 3+ GW.SUMMER INTERRUPTIBLE POWER PENALTIES COST $700 MILLION IN 2007ENVIRONMENTAL DIFFUCULTIES IN EXPANDING TRANSMISSION
Urgently Need to:
• Supply Locally to Meet
Peak Demands or
• Curtail Peak Demands
• Avoid Electric Vehicles
Compounding Problems
Peak Rates
FERC Finds Elasticities are Small but: • Response Improves with the size of the
Spreads Between Peak and Off-Peak Rates• Programmed Cuts in Consumption• Currently high CT interruption costs ≈
$200/capita
Solar RatesSolar and Peak Rates Based on Marginal
Opportunity Costs
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70
Time of Day
$/k
Wh
Marginal Cost (kWh) Average solar rate Average peak rate
During Summer PeakHighest cost CT Generator at $1.17/kWh is Deployed Sparingly
Any Generation at Lower Cost Is Better
Strategy• Build Green Generation to Reduce GHGs and PM• Produce at Peak to Reduce Interruptible Charges• Pay Above Peak Rates for Solar• Entice Vehicle Owners to Charge Off-Peak• Get Vehicle Dealers to Invest and Locally Feed the
Grid• Consider Rebating Electricity Used to Charge EVs• Maximize Value of Hot Water• Track CO2eq Credits
Regional Modeling Strategy
Use RETSCRREN To:• Assess Energy Expansion • Cost Alternatives• Meteorological Data• Examined:
– Solar– Wind– Chips
• Environmental Impacts– GHGs and PM
REMI For:• Dynamic Assessment
– Reduced Interruption Costs
• Impacts on Household– Energy cost & Peak Rates
• Import Substitution for Fossil Fuels
• CT Employment and Incomes
• Fiscal Impacts
Subsidy/ KW Installed GHG Credits$50/Tonne of CO2eq
Dealer Payments to Clients
Years to Payout Equity at various Electricity Rates:
Rates for Sale into Grid (cents/kWh)
16.62 (CT) 37.8 (NJ) 41.7 (CA) 47 (ON)
Subsidy/ KW Installed
1) None Y N 14.61 2.65 2.30 1.95
N N 70.06 3.09 2.63 2.18
Y Y Loss 4.17 3.37 2.67
N Y Loss 5.39 4.12 3.13
2) $251.25 Y N 12.78 2.32 2.01 1.71
N N 61.26 2.70 2.30 1.91
Y Y Loss 3.65 2.95 2.34
N Y Loss 4.71 3.60 2.73
3) $375.00 Y N 11.87 2.15 1.87 1.59
N N 56.92 2.51 2.14 1.77
Y Y Loss 3.39 2.74 2.17
N Y Loss 4.38 3.35 2.54
Years to Payout to Equity Holders from Electricity Revenues Only
Making It Pay Without Subsidy
• Dealers Producing Solar Will Be Paid Back within Three years if:
• Solar Rates Exceed California’s 41.7 kWh• Solar Rates Exceed Ontario’s 47 kWh and Environmental TCs are $50/tonne of CO2eq
and Dealers Rebate their Customers
Timing of AdoptionsSlow Adoption:
• Growth of 0.02% in year one, 2009, followed by +10% of previous year’s growth rate.
• 98.8% of new vehicles are plug-ins by 2050.
• Cumulative vehicle gasoline savings of 9.5 billion gallons.
• Cumulative fuel taxes foregone $2.4 billion gross.
• CO2eq reductions of 72.4 million
tonnes
Rapid Adoption:
• Growth of 0.02% in year one followed by +20% of previous year’s growth rate. •98.8% of new vehicles are plug-ins by 2031 and thereafter.• Cumulative vehicle gasoline savings of 29.9 billion gallons.• Cumulative fuel taxes foregone $7.5 billion gross.• CO2eq reductions of 226.7 million tonnes.
ModelingSolar Only
Due to closer proximity to demand than in bio-based transmission loses 10%.
Cumulative investment $23.9 billion (2008).
Cumulative operating costs $198.9 million 100% human resources.
Due to closer proximity to demand than in bio-based transmission loses 10%.
Cumulative investment $53.1 billion (2008).
Cumulative operating costs $442.0 million 100% human resources.
Bio-based Only
Transmission loses 25%.
Cumulative investment $4.9 billion (2008).
Cumulative operating costs $9.9 billion.
Transmission loses 25%.
Cumulative investment $10.6 billion (2008).
Cumulative operating costs $31.0 billion.
CT Fuel Saved Annually (Millions of Gallons)
20092011
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20292031
20332035
20372039
20412043
20452047
20490
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Slow Conversion Fast Conversion
20092011
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20292031
20332035
20372039
20412043
20452047
20490
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
CT RGDP Impacts (Fixed Billions of 2000 $)
Slow Solar Adop-tion B
Rapid Solar Adop-tion B
Slow Bio
Rapid Bio
Combined Slow
Rapid Combined
Billi
ons 2
000$
20092011
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20292031
20332035
20372039
20412043
20452047
20490
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
CT Personal Income Impacts(Billions Nominal $)
Slow Solar Adop-tion B
Rapid Solar Adoption B
Slow Bio
Rapid Bio
Combined Slow
Rapid Combined
Billi
ons N
omin
al $
All Scenarios Generate Sufficient to Cover Lost Fuel Tax Revenues
20092011
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20292031
20332035
20372039
20412043
20452047
2049 -
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
CT Personal Income Tax Impacts(Million Nominal $)
Slow Solar Adop-tion B
Rapid Solar Adoption B
Slow Bio
Rapid Bio
Combined Slow
Rapid Combined
Mill
ions
Nom
inal
$
20092011
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20292031
20332035
20372039
20412043
20452047
20490
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
CT Labor Force Impacts (1,000s)
Slow Solar Adop-tion B
Rapid Solar Adoption B
Slow Bio
Rapid Bio
Combined Slow
Rapid Combined
Labo
r For
ce 1
000s
20092011
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20292031
20332035
20372039
20412043
20452047
20490
5
10
15
20
25
CT Population Impacts (1,000s)
Slow Solar Adoption BRapid Solar Adoption BSlow BioRapid BioCombined SlowRapid Combined
Popu
latio
n 10
00s
20092011
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20292031
20332035
20372039
20412043
20452047
20490
5
10
15
20
25
30
CT Employment Impacts (1,000s)
Slow Solar Adop-tion B
Rapid Solar Adoption B
Slow Bio
Rapid Bio
Combined Slow
Rapid Combined
Empl
oyed
1,0
00s
20092012
20152018
20212024
20272030
20332036
20392042
20452048
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
CT Employment Impacts in Fabricatated Metal (Employed 1,000s)
Slow Solar Adoption B
Rapid Solar Adoption B
Slow Bio
Rapid Bio
Combined Slow
Rapid Combined
Empl
oyed
1,0
00s
20092012
20152018
20212024
20272030
20332036
20392042
20452048
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
CT Employment Impacts in Agricultural and Forestry Employment (1,000s)
Slow Solar Adoption B
Rapid Solar Adoption B
Slow Bio
Rapid Bio
Combined Slow
Rapid Combined
Eplo
ymen
t 1,0
00s
20092011
20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20292031
20332035
20372039
20412043
20452047
2049-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
CT Labor Productivity Impacts(2000 Fixed 1000s)
Slow Solar Adop-tion B
Rapid Solar Adoption B
Slow Bio
Rapid Bio
Combined Slow
Rapid Combined
2000
fixe
d 10
00 $
Conclusions• CT can build on its TOU smart metering to accelerate adoption of electric vehicles
• CT can overcome charges for interruptible power and strongly encourage electric vehicle owners to recharge their vehicles at off-peak
• Impacts to be positive in employment, labor force, population, personal income
• Over-reliance on bio-fuels could erode labor productivity, albeit that issue could be redressed with improved growing and harvesting technologies
• Increases in personal income taxes under all scenarios were sufficient to offset gasoline sales taxes foregone
• Impacts on labor productivity are mixed depending on the relative weights of solar or bio-fuels
Conclusions (Continued)Potential benefits are likely to exceed those modeled since no account has been taken of the health impacts of reduced emissions of both CO2eq and PM.
CO2eq reductions are 72.4 million tonnes in the slow adoption cases and 226.7 million tonnes in the rapid adoption cases out to 2050.
Estimating impacts on PM will require delineation of diesel vehicles by type and further evidence on the chip burning technologies where technology is improving.
Results will vary massively among jurisdictions depending on the current & future generating mixes, excess capacities, peak pricing and rates of adoption of electric vehicles.
Weaning Automobiles off Gasoline onto Electricity
Peter E GuntherSenior Research Fellow
Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis
REMI TORONTONovember 6, 2009
(613) [email protected]