we live on the verandah of the world's greatest island...

The Role of the Polycentric City in a Green Economy Cole Hendrigan

"we live on the verandah of the world's greatest island.” Tim Winton

In Series B, Perth is projected to experience the highest percentage growth (116%) of Australia's capital cities, increasing from 1.6 million people at 30 June 2007 to 3.4 million in 2056. (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011)

http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/AboutGEI/WhatisGEI/tabid/29784/Default.aspx�


Big Idea: The Perth Region can be an example of a Multimodal Transport Oriented, Green Economic and Polycentric City.

Big Questions

To find spaces for 848,000 additional people to live and work and play before 2056 (WA Planning ‘Direction 2031’) To find space for where a more just, affordable, democratic, equitable and resource conserving ‘green economy’ may be designed and constructed To demonstrate that planning policy can create liveable regions, but that it needs to be visualised as a part of the accounting process To examine the opportunities and promises of land use and transport integration and uncover the “scale of the operation” to achieve regional goals.


PERTH


PERTH Polycentric

From top left: Ebeneezer Howard, Frank Lloyd Wright, Newman & Kenworthy, Openfabric


PERTH Green Economy

“…UNEP has developed a working definition of a green economy as one that

results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. In its simplest expression, a green economy can

be thought of as one which is low carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive. Practically speaking, a green economy is one whose growth in income and employment is driven

by public and private investments that reduce carbon emissions and pollution, enhance energy and resource efficiency, and prevent the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. …This development path should maintain,

enhance and, where necessary, rebuild natural capital as a critical economic asset and source of public benefits…..” (UNEP: Green Economy. http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/AboutGEI/WhatisGEI/tabid/29784/Default.aspx Accessed August 2012)

United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Green Economy definition



PERTH. But How Much


PERTH. But Where


PERTH. But Where Local Structure Plans


PERTH. But Where Residential Codes


PERTH. But Where


The Role of the Polycentric City in a Green Economy Cole Hendrigan IFLA 2012

PERTH. But Where

PERTH. But How Much


PERTH. But Where


PERTH. Fremantle East End


PERTH. Scarborough Beach Road


PERTH. Victoria Park



99%

1%

Spawl Reduction

Total Residential hectares of 1.8 million increase BAU baseline (100M/Person)

Total Residential Hectares in this Scenario

98%

2%

Infill Achieved

Total Residential hectares required for Infill to 2056 (100M/person)

Total Residential Hectares in this Scenario



8%

92%

Equivalent forests area preserved from carbon abatement to site

total hectares (usa epa) Land Area Hectares

Transport related GhG Per capita in Highly Walkable Urban Environment …

Transport related GhG Per capita in Low Walkable Urban Environment …

0.0 20,000.0 40,000.0 60,000.0 80,000.0

31,005.9

77,514.7

Tonnes of transport related GHG Saved (trubka et al.)

Series1

64%

36%

Carbon Reduction (world bank)

Carbon Produced, per person, in BAU (were one to live a 'Australian' sort of life)

Carbon Produced, per person, in this scenario (were one to live a 'Dutch' sort ot life)


Transport related GhG Per …

Transport related GhG Per …

0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000

631,972

1,579,929

Tonnes of transport related GHG Saved

Series1

PERTH. A region of 10 floor TODs


72%

28%

Sprawl Meter

Total Residential hectares of increase BAU baseline

Total Residential Infill Achieved in this scanarios

55%

45%

Infill Meter

Total Residential hectares required for Infill to 2056

Total Residential Infill Achieved in this scanarios

PERTH. But How Much


0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

Site Hectares and Maximum Building Heights

MAX by Plot Size

Hectares

PERTH. But How Much


0.0

200,000.0

400,000.0

600,000.0

800,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,200,000.0

Redevelopment Opportunities in M2, SCL

Retail Residential Commercial Total

PERTH. But How Much The Role of the Polycentric City in a Green Economy Cole Hendrigan

0.00 500,000.00 1,000,000.00 1,500,000.00 2,000,000.00 2,500,000.00

Population factor of 2 persons per 100m2

Commercial Employees @ 20/m2

Retail Employees @ /25m2

Trip generation

Parking Stalls

Population factor of 2 persons per 100m2

Commercial Employees @ 20/m2

Retail Employees @ /25m2 Trip generation Parking Stalls

Series1 281,558.70 314,575.3 34,457.8 2,085,968 363,722.6

Outcome of population, jobs, shopping, trips and parking on SCL

The Role of the Polycentric City in a Green Economy Cole Hendrigan IFLA 2012

PERTH. But So What?

GhG Per dwelling daily in …

GhG Saved though this scenario

0.0 4,000,000.0

8,000,000.0

2,702,963.5

6,757,408.7

4,054,445.2

Transport Related GHG daily by all residents along SCL

Series1

Total Carbon Saved per person vs. Sprawl in this Scenario

Carbon sequestered annually of forest preserved from …

Equivalent annual greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicle …

1,126,234.8

4,515.6

220,830.3

Passenger Vehicles Removed and Trees retained, SCL

Series1

Carbon Produced, per person, in BAU (were one to live a 'Australian' sort ot life)

Carbon Produced, per person, in this scenario (were one to live a

'Dutch' sort ot life)

Total Carbon Saved per person vs. Sprawl in this Scenario

2,618,495.9

1,492,261.1

1,126,234.8

Australian vs. Dutch Carbon per person lifestyles

Dollar Benefit per dwelling per year (Trubka et al) with Healthcare cost only

Dollar Benefit per dwelling per year (Trubka et al) with Healthcare and Productivity

0 50,000,000

100,000,000 150,000,000

11,966,245

108,963,215

Accrued Dollar Health Benefits per resident in a Highly Walkable Urban Environment

along SCL Series1

Conclusion: • To create the walkable, mixed use, diverse, amenity rich transit-oriented communities

there will be trade-offs, more people sharing space in higher density genuinely urban areas, but with the pay-offs in having more resilient cities. How dense and how much pay-off depends largely on policy limiting car use and designs for pedestrian priority.

• We must be asking questions from within our local cities on these important issues: Where and how are we going to grow our population, grow our food, provide public open space, restore and retain ecosystem services and avoid the folly of over reliance on the automobile?

• Perth has a chance to become a more equitable, green economic city less reliant on outside resources, as does every city faced with choices on how to allocate priorities. However, the scale of the challenge to be undertaken; building heights and Floor Area Ratios, Infrastructure upgrades and Public Open Space have to be honestly articulated to achieve a sustainable and equitable outcome.

• We need to understand opportunities and the “Scale of the operation” at hand if we

want any real change. How much does it take to makes a difference?

• Change will not be possible until there is a budget line outlining commitment.


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