We are Your U.S. National Weather Service…The nation’s air/land/sea weather

infrastructure partner for “All-Hazards” decision support

2012 IAEM-USA Mid-Year Meeting FEMA Emergency Management InstituteFriday, June 8, 2012, Emmitsburg, MD

Bill Proenza, Regional Administrator National Weather Service, Southern U.S.

Western U.S. Central U.S.

Southern U.S.w/ 27% of NWS offices

Eastern U.S.

Alaska Region

Pacific RegionHawaii & Guam

National Weather Service:only six regions with 4

very large CONUS regions.

Puerto Rico & Virgin Islands

2

Your U.S. National Weather Service…Born in1870 by President Grant ‘s executive order and an Organic Act of 1890,

codified as amended in section 313 of title15 of the federal statutory code (United States Code) missions the National Weather Service to issue and distribute warnings of environmental hazards. In summary the National

Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NWS data and products form a

national information database and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies, the private sector, the public, and the

global community. In addition, the National Weather Service supports the Emergency Alert System and provides, in coordination with the Federal

Emergency Management Agency, public dissemination of critical pre-event and post-event information of all hazards, including natural disasters and terrorist events. The National Weather Service all-hazards support

authority emanates primarily from the National Response Framework as authorized by The Homeland Security Act of 2002, codified predominantly

as amended in sections 101 to 557 of title 6 of the United States Code, and The Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, codified as

amended sections 5121 to 5206 of title 42 of the United States Code.

Your National Weather Service (NWS) directly provides 24x7 products, services, data gathering and dissemination/distribution, bulletins, outlooks, forecasts and warnings from its WFOs, RFCs, ROCs, Tsunami Centers, CWSUs, guidance & prediction centers for air, land, sea, climate and space services!

Attribution is imperatively important in our representative form of government to properly fund the NWS based on performance & mission!

Your U.S. National Weather Service clearly has the Congressionally mandated authority to issue

environmental warnings for the United States

NWS Regional Warning Statistics

NWSRegion

TornadoWarning

(T0R)

SevereThunderstor

mWarning

(SVR)

Flash Flood

Warning(FFW)

Special Marine

Warning(SMW)

Coastal Flood Warning (CFW) & Hurricane Strikes

Winter Weather Warning(WSW)

Non Precipitation

Warning(NPW)

Total

SR 25,277

148,258 24,692 16,037

994 7,226 31,930 254,414

CR 21,611 137,655 15,495 3,375 9 35,187 22,617 235,949

ER 5,639 67,840 14,937 9,190 695 15,327 15,518 129,146

WR 916 18,342 6,175 321 84 9,259 8,062 43,159

PR 2 27 363 231 42 1 104 770

AR 0 20 4 24 11 1,786 597 2,442

Total 53,445 372,142 61,666 29,178 1,835 68,786 78,828 665,880

• Source: NWS Headquarters Interactive Product Database• By “Product” – counts are based on TOR, SVR, FFW, SMW, & CFW• By “County or Zone” – counts are based on WSW, NPW & Hurricane Strikes

• Available Periods of Record:• TOR, SVR, FFW: 01/01/86 – 12/31/10• SMW: 10/01/01 – 12/31/10• NPW, WSW, CFW: 10/01/06 - 12/31/10 and Hurricane Strikes: 1900 - 2009

• WSW Warnings (Blizzard, Ice Storm, Lake Effect Snow, Wind Chill, Winter Storm)• NPW Warnings (Dust Storm, Excessive Heat, Freeze, Hard Freeze, High Wind)

Severe Weather Disasters since 1980, States with most disasters shown in blackUS Billion Dollar Disasters for the 1980-2010 Periodplus in 2011:

• Tornado outbreaks and flash floods are the biggest killers.

• Tropical Cyclones

and storm surges add to these billion dollar events.

379

29301

62

261

5

DE - 2

RI - 1

351

249HI - 7

29

413161

381

771 161

212

5

MD - 43

6

88

263

369

429

30

36010

4

10

64

42

224

221

86

320

16

66

228

230

163

870

8

4

195

20

10

18240

PR - 4

The USA had 8386 Tornadoes in 6 years. We are uniquely tornado vulnerable !

AK - 3(2003 – 2008)

3

We are a confrontational ………….battleground:continental vs tropical air. e.g. ’04: 1817; ‘08: 1690

F2+ Tornado Days, 1961-2010 Data

The true shape of the USA’s tornado

“alley” is really an “L” not just a north-south area!

reference: NWS/Storm Prediction Center

Deadly Flash Floods

Arkansas June 11, 2010• 4-7 inches of rain in 24 hours most

fell in about 6 hours• 20 fatalities• $9 million in damages• River rose 20 feet in just a few hours

Nashville, TN May 1-3, 2010• 10-16 inches of rain in 48 hours• 31 fatalities• $2.3 billion in damages

South Texas July 2010• Tropical moisture from Hurricane

Alex and TD#2 caused more than 50 inches of rain over 10 days (in Mexico, Rio Grande Basin)

• $70 million in damages (preliminary estimate)

9

Largest area of extreme drought is in the Southeastern US and

TX/NM !

The recent 40,000 acre fire in northeast FL!

The Atlantic Basin has had over 1400 tropical cyclones since 1851The Atlantic Basin has had over 1400 tropical cyclones since 1851

We are certainly geographically placed to be hurricane vulnerable !

2012 Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Seasonal

Trend

• First the climatology (1981-2010): 12 named storms (39mph), 6 hurricanes (74mph), 3 major hurricanes (111mph).

• NWS: released May 24th: 9-15 named, 4-8 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes.

• CSU (Bill Gray): updated June 1: 13 named, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.

• Accuweather: holding at 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

NWS Regional Warning Statistics

NWSRegion

TornadoWarning

(T0R)

SevereThunderstor

mWarning

(SVR)

Flash Flood

Warning(FFW)

Special Marine

Warning(SMW)

Coastal Flood Warning (CFW) & Hurricane Strikes

Winter Weather Warning(WSW)

Non Precipitation

Warning(NPW)

Total

SR 25,277

148,258 24,692 16,037

994 7,226 31,930 254,414

CR 21,611 137,655 15,495 3,375 9 35,187 22,617 235,949

ER 5,639 67,840 14,937 9,190 695 15,327 15,518 129,146

WR 916 18,342 6,175 321 84 9,259 8,062 43,159

PR 2 27 363 231 42 1 104 770

AR 0 20 4 24 11 1,786 597 2,442

Total 53,445 372,142 61,666 29,178 1,835 68,786 78,828 665,880

• Source: NWS Headquarters Interactive Product Database• By “Product” – counts are based on TOR, SVR, FFW, SMW, & CFW• By “County or Zone” – counts are based on WSW, NPW & Hurricane Strikes

• Available Periods of Record:• TOR, SVR, FFW: 01/01/86 – 12/31/10• SMW: 10/01/01 – 12/31/10• NPW, WSW, CFW: 10/01/06 - 12/31/10 and Hurricane Strikes: 1900 - 2009

• WSW Warnings (Blizzard, Ice Storm, Lake Effect Snow, Wind Chill, Winter Storm)• NPW Warnings (Dust Storm, Excessive Heat, Freeze, Hard Freeze, High Wind)

Annualized United States Severe Weather Deaths

30 Year Average (1979-2008 NWS Storm Data)

• Flash Floods & River Flooding 93 (flash floods alone: 73) • Severe Thunderstorms 115

Lightning (58) Tornadoes (57)

• Hurricanes & Surge 48

Total avg. annual deaths: 25615

Recent Earthquake & Tsunami Deaths

• Indian Ocean 9.3 Earthquake & Tsunami, Dec 26, 2004: 230,000 deaths (14 countries)

• Haiti 7.0 Earthquake & Tsunami, Jan 12, 2010: 316,000 deaths (USGS)

• Tohoku, Japan 9.0 Earthquake & Tsunami, Mar 11, 2011: 19,711 missing and dead (UNESCO IOC Bulletin 29, 9/30/11)

16

http://www.srh.noaa.gov

Since 1842: Caribbean (PR, USVI & Neighbor Nations) with only 1/6 the area had six (6) times more tsunami deaths than northeastern corner of

the “Pacific Rim” (Alaska, Hawaii, west coasts of Canada & US)!

1842-2010: 579 deaths

1842-2010:

3510+ deaths

NWS ‘90s Modernization, Tripled Tornado Warning Lead Times

but improvement pace mostly has leveled-out in last decade

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

L e

a d

T

I m

e

(min

.)

Year

WFOs become fully Functional(12 mins)

Doppler radars

Installed(6 mins)

Pre-local Forecast Offices

and pre-radar(4 mins)

19

• Better All-Hazards Decision Support with critical

Emergency Response Meteorologists

“ER-Mets” at – ROC Regional Operations Center in Ft. Worth– WFO in Tampa, FL– WFO in New Orleans– WFO in Baltimore/Wash. – WFO in Charleston, WV– NWS Headquarters in Silver Spring, MD

Staffing “pilot” projects for a Weather-Ready Nation

Staffing “pilot” projects for a Weather-Ready Nation

NW

S S

outh

ern

Reg

ion

Radar Improvement and its Next Generation

Dual-Pol Radar (Currently being installed) Finer resolution of storm structure & pinpointing

tornadoes. Finer rainfall estimates & flash-flood lead-times.

Phased Array (10 yrs) 30 second complete “volume scans” adding

precious minutes to warning lead-times ! Higher resolution on velocity data, storm

structure imaging, precipitation intensity

National Weather Service EMWIN info:http://www.nws.noaa.gov/emwin/winven.htm

EMWIN: Emergency Management Weather Information Network !

• Minimal costs! PC, dish and receiver (under $2000)• No monthly fees whatsoever !• Speed and Reliability (via GOES satellite)• Updated Info Received Instantly - 24 / 7 • Portable - Mobile (work, home or road) 1 meter dish• Software – programmable to receive your needs• Alarm Capable - Visible & Audible• Retransmission - Automatically retransmittable

WFO staff members who worked shifts during tornado outbreak period (April 25-30, 2011)

with less than 10-hour rest !

Num

ber o

f Per

sonn

el

Listed by Southern Region WFO

FAA Responds to 2011 air traffic safety concerns with rest policy changes:

“Research shows us that giving people the chance for even an additional one hour of rest during critical periods in a schedule can improve work performance and reduce

the potential for fatigue.” ----- FAA Administrator, 2011

• There will be a minimum of two controllers on-duty at all shift assignments even during less active late night shifts.

• Traffic controllers will no longer be able to switch to an unscheduled midnight shift following only a day off.

What is “ER-MET”?The Emergency Response Meteorologist

This NWS initiative provides EMs faster 24x7 decision-support with all hazards weather information from your nearby WFO or having an ER-MET deployed to

your event’s command site!

-advocating more National Weather Service branding …not only essential to annual budget support but also for a warning credibility that builds our national resiliency.

-the “fair-weather” staffing levels at the nation’s network of NWS warning offices’ can be vulnerable to our mission. Both NWS technology infusion and the 3-person ER-MET add-on staffing is needed at all WFOs for a weather-ready national resiliency.

-questioning us why is NWS so underfunded ? …despite demonstrated life saving warnings and cost/beneficial performances ? …and, despite what was a $22 million FY-12 increase in NWS appropriations for FY12 ?

NWS hears EMs…

A Weather-ReadyNation…

..avoids having to learn from tragedy !

Bill Proenza, Regional AdministratorU.S. National Weather Service, Southern Region

bill.proenza@noaa.govOffice: 817-978-1000

Questions, comments ?