WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002
description
Transcript of WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002
![Page 1: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
WDTB Winter Wx WDTB Winter Wx WorkshopWorkshop
Oct. 8-11, 2002Oct. 8-11, 2002SummarySummary
![Page 2: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Why Train on Winter Wx?Why Train on Winter Wx?
• Significant hazard to life and property
• 70-80 deaths / year
• $ 1 to 2 Billion / year
• Very difficult to forecast mesoscale events, pinpoint locations/timing/precip type of many large scale events due to complex nature of phenomena
![Page 3: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Performance MeasuresPerformance Measures
• 15 hr Lead Time on Warnings
• 90% POD
• 27% FAR
• Focus on science and societal impacts to improve services
![Page 4: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
New Policy DirectivesNew Policy DirectivesNWSI 10-513NWSI 10-513
• Outlooks– >30 % chance of event in next 3-5 days
• Watches– >50 % chance of event in next 12-48 hrs
• Warnings– 80% chance of event exceeding local criteria
in next 36 hrs• Mention specific amounts
![Page 5: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
New DirectivesNew Directives
• Get out of comfort zone
• Learn from failure
• Develop local criteria that meets user needs
• Determine optimal lead times for decision makers
![Page 6: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Winter Weather Forecast ProcessWinter Weather Forecast Process
• PDS Competency Units based on Specific Job Duties in the Winter Weather Warning Process
The PDS includes training on the tools, methodologies, time lines, and strategies used in preparing winter weather watches, advisories, and warnings
![Page 7: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
User NeedsUser Needs(PCU1)(PCU1)
• Assess customer requirements and societal impacts related to our winter weather products and services
• Optimize lead times to help decision makers – IC 1 Eastern Region Best Practices Report– See handout and user needs presentation
![Page 8: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
ClimatologyClimatology(PCU 2)(PCU 2)
• Rarity of storms (use Grumm’s web site)– http://
www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Presentations/sigwxau02-new.ppt
• Recognize Arctic Outbreak Patterns– See Brad Bramer’s
presentation
![Page 9: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Conceptual Models Conceptual Models (PCU 3 – 4)(PCU 3 – 4)
• Important to give physical basis for forecast adjustments
• Subjective and Objective forecaster techniques
Synoptic Synoptic NWP NWP Mesoscale Mesoscale
AdjustmentsAdjustments
IFPS gridsIFPS grids
![Page 10: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
NWP NWP (PCU 2-4)(PCU 2-4)
• Continues to improve with better resolution pcpn schemes
• Know changes to GFS, Eta, NMM, RUC-20, SREF output – METED web site – http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/
WinterWxII/Presentations/WHATSNEW.PPT
![Page 11: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
HPC Guidance HPC Guidance (PCU 2 to 4 )(PCU 2 to 4 )
• Use it– Know terms
• Coordinate with HPC– http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/
WinterWxII/Presentations/winterwx2.shw
![Page 12: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Ensembles (PCU 2-3)Ensembles (PCU 2-3)
• Use them in objective forecast process to recognize consistencies or uncertainties in model output
• Not always right!– http://
wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/SREF.html
![Page 13: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Synoptic AssessmentSynoptic Assessment(PCU 3)(PCU 3)
• QG forcing and Fn– http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII
/Presentations/SCHULTZ_.PPT
• Ingredients method (4-panel method of diagnosis)– http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/visit/ingredients.ht
ml
![Page 14: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Precipitation Type ForecastingPrecipitation Type Forecasting(PCU 3-4)(PCU 3-4)
• Microphysics (top down approach)– Know strengths and limitations of various precipitation
type techniques / algorithms (eg, Ramer, Bourgouin, Baldwin, etc)
• Use BUFKIT (dendritic growth zone, pcpn type) – http://wdtb.noaa.gov/resources/projects/BUFKIT/
index.html– http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/
Presentations/ptype_wdtb_day3_aug2002.shw– Complete exercise form using BUFKIT
![Page 15: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Precip Type Fcstg MethodologyPrecip Type Fcstg Methodologybeyond 72 hours (PCU 3)beyond 72 hours (PCU 3)
• Use pattern recognition and assess thickness values
![Page 16: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
• Use most consistent model to target potential • Top down approach
– Ice… –12C
• Identify range of possibilities
Precip Type Fcstg MethodologyPrecip Type Fcstg Methodology24 to 72 hours (PCU 3)24 to 72 hours (PCU 3)
Warm Layer Maximum Precipitation Type Precipitation TypeTemperature with ice introduced without ice introduced
< 0.5C Snow Freezing Drizzle/Rain**0.5C to 3C SN/PL Mix (0.5C) to All Sleet (3C) Freezing Drizzle/Rain**
> 3C Freezing Rain/Drizzle* Freezing Drizzle/Rain**
![Page 17: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
• Still use top down approach with higher resolution models but begin to incorporate more remotely sensed data to modify model output
Precip Type Fcstg MethodologyPrecip Type Fcstg Methodologywithin 24 hours of expected eventwithin 24 hours of expected event
(PCU 4)(PCU 4)
![Page 18: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Mesoscale Analysis /Real-timeMesoscale Analysis /Real-time(PCU 4 – 5)(PCU 4 – 5)
• Banding potential (location of Fn)• SPC meso guidance• Use satellite trends for timing of features, forcing
mechanisms, tstms can warm sfc T• Radar orientations/ echo circles/bright band• Use Spotters• http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/
WinterWxII/Presentations/frontogenesis_talk_020809.ppt
![Page 19: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Topo forcing Topo forcing (PCU 4)(PCU 4)
• Know basics of mountain flow– COMET web site– http://meted.ucar.edu/mesoprim/flowtopo/
index.htm
• Improved grid spacing can help
![Page 20: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Use of Mesoscale ModelsUse of Mesoscale Models(PCU 4)(PCU 4)
• Goal is to improve knowledge of the forecast process and use of mesoscale models
• Big Bang for Buck• Can help forecasters determine local responses
to various weather regimes – If you capture the forcing, you can capture the
response– See Bob Roz.’s LAM considerations (domain size,
time, resolution, phenom of interest)
![Page 21: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Forecasting Blizzards/High windsForecasting Blizzards/High winds(PCU 5)(PCU 5)
• Recognize factors for development– Brad Bramer’s talk– Review representative case study (Sept. 11,
2001)
![Page 22: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Effective CommunicationEffective Communication(PCU 6)(PCU 6)
• Timing is everything
• Make sure our products tell the whole story– Snow accum not enough– societal impacts should be coordinated prior
to the season
![Page 23: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
IFPS Smart ToolsIFPS Smart Tools
• Precipitation type algorithm
![Page 24: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
ScenarioScenarioLessons LearnedLessons Learned
• Coordination with HPC and adjacent WFOs Coordination with HPC and adjacent WFOs helped in the decision-making processhelped in the decision-making process
• SREF ensembles helped in the forecast SREF ensembles helped in the forecast processprocess
• 4-panels of “ingredients”, 2-D Fn helpful, 4-panels of “ingredients”, 2-D Fn helpful, model soundings (using BUFKIT) great for p-model soundings (using BUFKIT) great for p-type forecasting (Weta)type forecasting (Weta)
• satellite trends helpful in snowfall rates and satellite trends helpful in snowfall rates and amountsamounts
![Page 25: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Where do you go from here?Where do you go from here?
• All presentations will be on WDTB winter weather web site (wdtb.noaa.gov )
• Make training stick by being an example
• Use the PDS on winter weather
• You’ll be hearing from us after this winter to see how techniques & training were applied
![Page 26: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Making Training Stick Like GlueMaking Training Stick Like Glue• Plan • Research • Inform and communicate expectations • Objectively Observe• Role Model• Inspire, instill, internalize• Test techniques• Yes attitude
![Page 27: WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022051623/56815876550346895dc5d624/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
SummarySummary