Wayne Sampling

8/22/2019 Wayne Sampling

1/15

A Two Day Up Volume Thrust Signal Wayne Whaley Jan 02, 2013

I define the two day Up Volume thrust rating, UDT2 as follows;UDT2= 100.0* (UpVol ) / (UpVol + DnVol ) where Up Vol is sum of each of last 2 days S&P Up Volume

The Last Five Days of S&P Up & Down Volume

Date Up Volume Down Volume UDT2

20121226 0,702,848,805 0,892,784,811 40.51

20121227 0,508,805,335 1,537,483,176 33.27

20121228 0,149,272,100 1,553,650,672 17.55

20121231 2,356,263,065 0,017,185,358 61.46

20130102 2,854,588,372 0,204,517,569 95.92

Todays S&P UDT2 registered 95.92. Disregarding 1 month repeats, UDT2 has been higher

six months after all post 1970 readings of +89.2.

S&P Performance after a S&P UDT2 of > 89.2

FORWARD S&P PERFORMANCE

# DATE UDT2 1MT 3MT 6MT 12MT

1 19711129 90.69 9.42 14.09 18.47 24.74

2 19750102 90.70 9.61 17.37 34.10 29.43

3 19750919 92.13 3.47 3.40 17.12 23.74

4 19760105 90.49 8.44 11.81 12.45 13.16

5 19771111 90.39 -2.43 -6.15 1.27 -1.26

6 19780414 91.30 5.54 5.02 12.63 9.77

7 19791112 90.38 3.87 13.90 1.23 30.03

8 19820823 94.07 6.65 14.51 26.44 40.21

9 19821007 90.40 10.37 12.76 17.83 32.61

10 19840802 92.23 5.50 5.97 13.06 21.2011 19870105 96.63 11.49 19.12 21.19 2.55

12 19871030 91.97 -8.53 2.10 3.79 10.62

13 19880601 95.54 1.91 -3.13 2.17 20.73

14 19880729 92.69 -3.56 2.39 8.01 25.78

15 19901112 89.42 3.35 14.40 17.61 24.18

16 19960802 89.89 -1.58 6.23 18.67 42.97

17 19970505 89.37 1.58 14.70 13.55 34.37

18 20030218 90.18 1.80 10.94 17.45 35.32

19 20090318 92.94 10.11 15.61 34.49 46.77

20 20090821 91.56 3.75 6.36 8.09 4.44

21 20100708 89.38 4.80 8.87 18.80 25.56

22 20100902 95.30 5.15 12.06 20.03 7.69

23 20101202 91.70 2.96 7.11 7.48 1.86

24 20110829 94.48 -4.11 -1.23 12.86 16.56

25 20111005 90.96 9.55 11.98 22.21 27.7026 20111103 90.22 -1.34 6.64 10.34 12.14

27 20120727 90.16 1.77 1.87 4.71 4.71

28 20130102 95.92 ? ? ? ?

#UP-DN = 21- 6 24- 3 27- 0 26- 1

AVG%CHG= 3.69 8.47 14.67 21.02

MED%CHG= 3.75 8.87 13.55 23.74

Note: the 28th signal has produced 3.47, 7.37 and 10.37%, 1/3/6 month forward performance.


2/15

The 2013 Toy Story Wayne Whaley January 19, 2013

Owing largely to previous students of seasonal tendencies such as Yale Hirsch and Arthur

Merrill, astute traders have for several decades been cognizant of the intermediate

implications arising from the markets observed disposition at the Turn of the Year. For the

last half century, indicators such as the January Barometer, the First Five Days of January,and various End of the Year holiday studies have served to document these tendencies.

In March of 2012, in an effort to finally resolve, for my own satisfaction, which time period

was the King Pin of seasonal barometers, I implored my computer to take a few seconds to

exhaustively study S&P performance over every time period of the year and determine

which time frames behavior was proprietor of the highest correlation coefficient relative tothe following years performance. My machine was kind enough to inform me there are

many time periods which merit observance, and I am now the beneficiary of his daily

capsulation of statistically significant time frames which are in play on any day of inquiry.

Of current interest, the time period which this endeavor found to have the highest

correlation to the following year, was the 2 month period from November 19 to January 19.

Since this two month time period (Nov19-Jan19) extends across the Turn of the Year (TOY)and encompasses the gift giving season, I have coined it the TOY Barometer. The TOY

Barometers predictive ability benefits from the fact its setup period includes several subset

time frames which have, in their own right, shown predictive capability; such as the

Thanksgiving Holiday Week, the Christmas Holiday Week, the Last Week of the Year and the

First Week of the Year. The markets response to fourth quarter earnings announcements

beginning in the second week of January could contribute as well. Also, many an investment

methodology involves turn of the year contributions which may tip the markets hand as to

levels of money flow which may follow throughout the course of the year.

We booked a 2013 TOY of 7.14% today. Since 1950, the S&P has finished positive in the

following year (Jan19-Jan19) in 31 of those 32 years in which TOY performance exceeded

3%. In the 1987 exception, the S&P was up 24% from January 19 through August 13, beforesuccumbing to an assault on double digit interest rates during the fall of that, the year of our

Black Monday. The 32 previous +3% TOY cases are listed below for your viewing pleasure.

ONE YEAR (JAN19-JAN19) S&P PERFORMANCE AFTER A 3% TOY

# YEAR TOY% NEXTYR% # YEAR TOY% NEXTYR% # YEAR TOY% NEXTYR%1 1950 4.26 26.62 12 1971 13.09 10.79 23 1989 7.67 18.21

2 1951 7.55 13.53 13 1972 13.39 14.34 24 1991 4.04 26.08

3 1952 6.69 7.30 14 1975 4.05 36.70 25 1992 10.39 4.37

4 1954 5.25 36.14 15 1976 9.27 5.62 26 1997 4.58 23.88

5 1955 4.51 25.06 16 1979 5.64 11.35 27 1999 8.53 16.39

6 1958 3.24 35.79 17 1980 6.56 21.34 28 2004 9.34 3.92

7 1959 4.66 2.86 18 1983 6.02 14.99 29 2009 5.40 33.638 1961 7.08 15.02 19 1985 5.05 21.66 30 2010 5.05 11.45

9 1963 8.96 17.46 20 1986 4.91 27.76 31 2011 6.85 2.54

10 1964 6.48 12.60 21 1987 13.33 -7.43 32 2012 8.13 13.05

11 1967 5.61 10.98 22 1988 3.86 15.08 33 2013 7.14 ?

NEXT YEAR #UP-DN= 31-1 AVG%CHG=16.53 MED%CHG=15.01

Note: As of August 2nd, the S&P is up 15.05% since the Jan 19, 2013 Bullish Tape Signal


3/15

The Implications of a Four Percent January

Wayne Whaley [email protected] January 31, 2013

Given the culmination of a 5.04% first month of 2013, I thought it appropriate to take a more

detailed look at the historical precedent set by similar starts to the calendar year.

The First Seven Months After a Four Percent January, 18-0

The last 18 cases of Four Percent Januarys, dating back to 1950, all extended their gains

through August, by an average/median level of 9.70/8.82%. Of those 18 cases, there was

only one double digit drawdown over those following seven months which occurred during a

period in 1980 in which the markets were unnerved by the developments in the Iran

Hostage Crisis of that year.

Feb-Aug SP Performance - After a +4% January

FEB- MAXIMUM %

# YEAR JAN% AUGUST% DRAWDOWN DRAWUP

1 1951 6.02 7.48 -3.23 7.48

2 1954 5.12 14.38 -1.04 19.67

3 1958 4.28 14.51 -2.61 15.49

4 1961 6.32 10.18 -1.04 10.78

5 1963 4.91 9.52 -3.17 9.52

6 1967 7.82 8.12 -0.21 10.65

7 1971 4.05 3.29 -2.45 9.27

8 1975 12.28 12.86 0.00 24.20

9 1976 11.83 2.03 -2.21 5.05

10 1980 5.76 7.20 -13.96 10.3911 1985 7.41 5.01 -1.73 8.92

12 1987 13.18 20.33 0.00 22.87

13 1988 4.04 1.73 -3.10 7.29

14 1989 7.11 18.15 -3.48 18.36

15 1991 4.15 14.97 -0.26 15.33

16 1997 6.13 14.41 -6.17 22.15

17 1999 4.10 3.19 -4.96 10.87

18 2012 4.36 7.18 -2.62 8.12

19 2013 5.04 ? ? ?

#UP-DN = 18- 0

AVG%CHG= 9.70

MED%CHG= 8.82

Drawdown = Worse Loss from the end of January to any Date through August.

Drawup = Best Gain from the end of January to any Date through August.

They are not peak to trough drawdown/ups.

Note: The S&P is in the process of posting its 19th consecutive Feb-August following a 4% Jan, currently up

14.12% (Aug 3)
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


4/15

Four Percent Januarys A Detailed Breakdown

Below is a table with a more detailed breakdown of the full 12 month breakdown for post

Four Percent January performance. 1987 was hit with sharply rising interest rates in the fall

and gave up its early gains (Black Monday), to post the only negative forward 12 month

performance after a Four Percent January, albeit after a 22.87% run into August. MostJanuary Barometer followers, quote the forward one year performance through the end of

the year, but note I have it through the following January to complete the full 12 month cycle.

S&P Performance after a Four Percent January

MTOF NEXT 1MTH 3MTHS 6MTHS 12MTS ONE YEAR MAX

# YEAR JAN% WEEK FEB% FEB-APR FEB-JUL FEB-JAN DDOWN DRAWUP

1 1951 6.02 1.52 0.65 3.42 7.48 11.45 -3.23 13.85

2 1954 5.12 0.84 0.27 18.40 14.38 40.45 -1.04 40.91

3 1958 4.28 0.07 -2.06 13.17 14.51 32.97 -2.61 34.39

4 1961 6.32 -0.21 2.69 8.06 10.18 11.43 -1.04 17.58

5 1963 4.91 -0.05 -2.89 4.43 9.52 16.37 -3.17 16.48

6 1967 7.82 0.39 0.20 9.40 8.12 6.50 -0.21 12.68

7 1971 4.05 1.10 0.91 -0.31 3.29 8.41 -5.97 9.27

8 1975 12.28 2.14 5.99 15.29 12.86 31.02 0.00 31.02

9 1976 11.83 -1.39 -1.14 2.56 2.03 1.16 -2.21 6.91

10 1980 5.76 1.86 -0.44 6.58 7.20 13.48 -13.96 23.09

11 1985 7.41 1.22 0.86 6.29 5.01 17.90 -1.73 19.02

12 1987 13.18 2.17 3.69 16.27 20.33 -6.21 -18.30 22.87

13 1988 4.04 -2.38 4.18 5.82 1.73 15.72 -3.10 15.72

14 1989 7.11 0.73 -2.89 16.34 18.15 10.63 -3.48 20.95

15 1991 4.15 3.66 6.73 12.76 14.97 18.86 -0.26 22.34

16 1997 6.13 0.43 0.59 21.39 14.41 24.69 -6.17 25.35

17 1999 4.10 -3.14 -3.23 3.84 3.19 8.97 -4.96 14.82

18 2012 4.36 2.64 4.06 5.10 7.18 14.15 -2.62 14.15

19 2013 5.04 ? ? ? ? ?

#UP-DN = 13- 5 12- 6 17- 1 18- 0 17- 1

AVG%CHG= 0.65 1.01 9.38 9.70 15.44

MED%CHG= 0.63 0.62 7.32 8.82 13.82

Only two of the cases (80 & 87) incurred a double digit drawdown over the following year,

while 16 of the 18 cases were up at least double digits at some point in the next 12 months.

Of immediate interest, a Four Percent January turns the very normal month of February into

a 12-6 proposition. But likely of most note worthiness, is the fact the Four Percent Januarys

take the three months of February through April and turn their historic returns into what

would normally be a years performance with average/median three month profits of

9.38/7.32%.


5/15

The Monthly Breakdown of Years with TOYs Similar To This Year

Wayne Whaley [email protected] February 21, 2013

I have gotten over some guilt I formerly harbored for potentially overindulging in the

promotion of my favorite child, as it is has taken me a year of evaluation to conclude that

TOY is the most underappreciated, best kept quantitative market prognostication secret

floating about. When one considers the number of signals, plus the ability to forecast both

directions, it is difficult not to show favoritism. Since 1950, the Bullish (+3%) TOYs, plus the

Bearish (negative) TOYs, have generated 45 signals which have an 89% accuracy of

predicting the direction of the following year, a feat I have not been able to match with any

other seasonal, technical, monetary, valuation, sentiment, economic, or astrological

forecasting tool I have had the pleasure to peruse. Sometimes, it just aint that complicated.

The S&P posted a 7.1% TOY (Turn of the Year) Barometer measure this year. Recall that

+3% TOYs (Nov19-Jan19) are 32-1 over the following 12 months (Jan19-Jan19) with anavg/med return of 16.67/15.01%. As of March 20, we are up 5% in this TOY year. Below are

the 20 years since 1950 which have the most similar (3.8-10.5%) TOY measures to this

years. Strength through March-April, which provides follow through into mid summer,

sideways action through the second half of the summer, with a strong end of year finish.

THE MONTHLY BREAKDOWN OF YRS AFTER TOYS SIMILAR TO THIS YEARS 7.1%

# YR TOY FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

0 2013 7.1 1.1

1 2011 6.9 3.2 -0.1 2.8 -1.4 -1.8 -2.1 -5.7 -7.2 10.8 -0.5 0.9

2 1989 7.7 -2.9 2.1 5.0 3.5 -0.8 8.8 1.6 -0.7 -2.5 1.7 2.1

3 1980 6.6 -0.4 -10.2 4.1 4.7 2.7 6.5 0.6 2.5 1.6 10.2 -3.4

4 1964 6.5 1.0 1.5 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.8 -1.6 2.9 0.8 -0.5 0.4

5 2012 8.1 4.1 3.1 -0.7 -6.3 4.0 1.3 2.0 2.4 -2.0 0.3 0.7

6 1983 6.0 1.9 3.3 7.5 -1.2 3.5 -3.3 1.1 1.0 -1.5 1.7 -0.9

7 1999 8.5 -3.2 3.9 3.8 -2.5 5.5 -3.2 -0.6 -2.9 6.3 1.9 5.8

8 1979 5.6 -3.7 5.5 0.2 -2.6 3.9 0.9 5.3 0.0 -6.9 4.3 1.7

9 1967 5.6 0.2 3.9 4.2 -5.2 1.8 4.5 -1.2 3.3 -3.5 0.8 2.6

10 2009 5.4 -11.0 8.5 9.4 5.3 0.0 7.4 3.4 3.6 -2.0 5.7 1.8

11 1963 9.0 -2.9 3.5 4.9 1.4 -2.0 -0.3 4.9 -1.1 3.2 -1.1 2.4

12 2010 5.1 2.9 5.9 1.5 -8.2 -5.4 6.9 -4.7 8.8 3.7 -0.2 6.5

13 1985 5.0 0.9 -0.3 -0.5 5.4 1.2 -0.5 -1.2 -3.5 4.3 6.5 4.5

14 1976 9.3 -1.1 3.1 -1.1 -1.4 4.1 -0.8 -0.5 2.3 -2.2 -0.8 5.215 2004 9.3 1.2 -1.6 -1.7 1.2 1.8 -3.4 0.2 0.9 1.4 3.9 3.2

16 1986 4.9 7.1 5.3 -1.4 5.0 1.4 -5.9 7.1 -8.5 5.5 2.1 -2.8

17 1997 4.6 0.6 -4.3 5.8 5.9 4.3 7.8 -5.7 5.3 -3.4 4.5 1.6

18 1975 4.0 6.0 2.2 4.7 4.4 4.4 -6.8 -2.1 -3.5 6.2 2.5 -1.2

19 1991 4.0 6.7 2.2 0.0 3.9 -4.8 4.5 2.0 -1.9 1.2 -4.4 11.2

20 1992 10.4 1.0 -2.2 2.8 0.1 -1.7 3.9 -2.4 0.9 0.2 3.0 1.0

#UP-DN = 13- 7 14- 6 15- 5 12- 8 14- 6 11- 9 10-10 12- 8 12- 8 14- 6 16- 4

AVG%CH = 0.57 1.77 2.60 0.65 1.18 1.40 0.11 0.23 1.05 2.08 2.17

MED%CH = 0.91 2.64 2.82 1.18 1.70 1.07 -0.14 0.92 1.00 1.83 1.73
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


6/15

Thanksgiving Sets the Table for March Wayne Whaley Feb 27, 2013

The Nov8-Dec8 time frame was up 2.94% this year (2012).

This Nov8-Dec8 monthly time period, which encompasses the Thanksgiving season,has a statistically significant record of calling the performance of March. Scanning

for all years in which the Nov 8-Dec8th time frame posted performance within 1% of

this years 2.94% S&P measure produces the March results provided below.

March S&P Performance

After a 1.94-3.94% Nov8-Dec8th

Year Nov8-Dec8% Mar%Chg

1956 3.78 6.93

1958 2.79 3.09

1960 3.02 -1.39

1969 3.83 3.44

1972 2.68 0.59

1979 2.31 5.52

1984 2.13 1.35

1987 2.19 2.64

1990 3.12 2.43

1999 3.54 3.88

2002 3.56 3.672006 3.06 1.11

2010 2.12 5.88

2013 2.94 ?

#UP-DN = 12-1

AVG%CHG= 3.01

MED%CHG= 3.09

Note: March was up 3.51% in 2013, in line with previous years after similar setups.


7/15

A 20-0 DJF Barometer Signal Wayne Whaley March 01, 2013

Simply more support for the TOY Barometer Signal. February is one of the weaker

months of the year and often a time to give back some of any of the previous twomonths gains. The ability of the market to add to December and Januarys gain in

February, despite extended conditions, and some seasonal tendencies to do

otherwise, is simply an indication of an underlying strength driving market direction

which should be respected. The S&P was up 0.71, 5.04 and 1.11% in the recent

December, January and February months. Since 1950, there have been 20 previous

cases where those three months were all each positive and in all 20 cases, the S&P

was higher 12 months (Mar-Feb) later.

S&P PERFORMANCE AFTER A POSITIVE DEC, JAN AND FEBRUARY

TRAILING S&P FORWARD S&P PERFORMANCE

PERFORMANCE 1MT 3MTS 6MTS 9MTS 1YEAR

YEAR DEC JAN FEB MAR MARMAY MARAUG MARNOV MARFEB

1950 4.35 1.73 1.00 0.41 9.06 6.97 13.30 26.60

1951 4.72 6.02 0.65 -1.47 -1.28 6.79 4.95 6.70

1954 0.20 5.12 0.27 3.02 11.63 14.07 30.94 40.57

1955 5.08 1.81 0.35 -0.49 3.13 17.46 23.80 23.34

1961 4.63 6.32 2.69 2.55 4.92 7.30 12.42 10.28

1964 2.44 2.69 0.99 1.52 3.30 5.18 8.51 12.38

1971 5.68 4.05 0.91 3.68 2.98 2.36 -2.85 10.151972 8.62 1.81 2.53 0.59 2.78 4.24 9.48 4.79

1983 1.52 3.31 1.89 3.32 9.69 11.04 12.39 6.09

1985 2.24 7.41 0.86 -0.29 4.62 4.11 11.59 25.25

1986 4.51 0.24 7.15 5.28 9.00 11.46 9.83 25.24

1988 7.29 4.04 4.18 -3.33 -2.11 -2.35 2.20 7.86

1991 2.48 4.15 6.73 2.22 6.20 7.73 2.22 12.43

1993 1.01 0.70 1.05 1.87 1.54 4.55 4.15 5.36

1995 1.23 2.43 3.61 2.73 9.44 15.28 24.21 31.40

1996 1.74 3.26 0.69 0.79 4.48 1.81 18.20 23.48

1998 1.57 1.02 7.04 4.99 3.95 -8.75 10.89 18.01

2004 5.08 1.73 1.22 -1.64 -2.12 -3.55 2.52 5.12

2011 6.53 2.26 3.20 -0.10 1.35 -8.16 -6.05 2.90

2012 0.85 4.36 4.06 3.13 -4.05 2.99 3.70 10.91

2013 0.71 5.04 1.11 ? ? ? ? ?

#UP-DN = 14- 6 16- 4 16- 4 18- 2 20- 0

AVG%CHG= 1.44 3.92 5.03 9.82 15.44

MED%CHG= 1.69 3.63 4.87 9.65 11.64

Note: as of Aug 3, 2013, the S&P is up 12.87% since the end of February


8/15

Shortterm Overbought = Longterm Bullish Wayne Whaley May 14, 2013

We are a bit overbought in here (1645), but given it is an Opex Week, they likely take

is as far as 1653ish, spend a day trading between 1653 and 1647, make the 1650

open interest squirm and then pull back, with the consolidation being met with

renewed buying in a few days. The mental trading box has shifted and old wellestablished Highs (1570), now become well established support. Below is a study of

past days which had ADT21s (Breadth), UDT21s(UpVolume), and SPT21s, (SP Price

Moves), most similar to today. I use 21 trading days as it most closely replicates a

typical calendar month (30.5 days). As you can see, very shortterm overbought, but

very constructive looking out a month or more. The 5.25% average quarterly move

is an eye grabber. Note posted one wk prior to the May 21-June 24 5.75% correction.

THE TOP 20 MATCHES TO TODAYS S&P TAPE MEASURES OF

ADT21 = 61.01 UDT21 = 66.16 SPT21 = 6.11

TAPE MEASURES FORWARD S&P PERFORMANCE

# DATE ADT21 UDT21 SPT21 1DAY WEEK MONTH QTR

0 20130514 61.01 66.16 6.11 ? ? ? ?

1 20121218 59.84 65.34 6.39 -0.76 -1.86 2.71 7.28

2 20100317 61.83 63.10 6.52 -0.03 0.13 2.22 -4.30

3 20030908 59.76 63.33 5.90 -0.82 -1.63 0.21 3.65

4 20040913 60.16 62.44 5.89 0.22 -0.32 -1.08 6.47

5 20120123 59.30 62.04 6.02 -0.10 -0.23 3.61 3.87

6 20041118 60.87 61.42 7.24 -1.12 -0.08 0.90 1.527 20101230 57.99 63.77 6.55 -0.02 1.27 1.47 5.60

8 20040112 58.89 62.32 6.44 -0.53 1.02 2.21 1.59

9 20120703 61.66 61.29 7.50 -0.47 -2.37 1.24 5.60

10 19960822 58.90 62.39 7.03 -0.54 -1.98 2.43 11.63

11 20130130 60.58 60.33 7.10 -0.26 0.68 0.85 6.37

12 20051128 59.65 59.92 6.66 0.00 0.29 0.15 1.84

13 20090827 56.89 62.95 5.73 -0.20 -2.69 1.30 5.87

14 19961004 59.37 61.46 8.01 0.27 -0.11 0.75 6.64

15 20130326 60.28 58.87 5.10 -0.06 -0.64 1.18 5.34

16 19970527 60.67 63.87 11.02 -0.29 -0.50 4.42 7.53

17 20030527 58.57 58.77 5.86 0.18 2.11 2.60 4.7618 20100929 60.07 60.59 9.13 -0.31 1.33 3.37 10.05

19 20070417 58.34 58.45 6.09 0.07 0.61 2.80 5.29

20 20100804 61.13 60.22 9.65 -0.13 -3.35 -2.02 8.32

#UP-DN = 5-15 8-12 18- 2 19- 1

AVG%CHG= -0.24 -0.42 1.57 5.25

MED%CHG= -0.16 -0.17 1.38 5.60


9/15

The Moving Average Studies Wayne Whaley May 17, 2013

Below are the best 30 matches of the current S&P Price relative to every moving average

from 2 to 200 days. Ive never seen anyone else take this approach, but it is actually not that

difficult and it is of the pattern recognition genre of analysis. This Study supports theoverbought story we have been telling for a couple of days. Most of the sellers I run across,

speak of getting back in after a pullback, and one has to wonder what might happen if they

dont get one, but there appears to be the makings of consolidation next week.

The S&P vs the 2 to 200 Day Moving Averages

THE % ABOVE OR BELOW THE FORWARD S&P PERFORMANCE

# DATE 200DMA 100DMA 50DMA 25DMA DAY WEEK 1MT 3MT 6MT 12MT

0 20130517 12.18 7.89 4.82 3.52 ? ? ? ? ? ?

1 19890526 12.98 8.00 5.60 2.96 -0.79 0.14 1.56 9.00 6.96 10.26

2 20040120 12.96 7.89 5.28 2.76 0.78 0.46 0.47 -1.81 -2.64 3.22

3 20101222 10.11 8.61 4.41 3.27 -0.16 -0.08 1.95 2.77 2.25 -0.38

4 19860213 12.00 8.66 3.87 3.43 1.09 3.32 7.26 8.74 13.00 28.66

5 19970120 13.01 8.18 4.01 3.43 0.78 -1.50 3.34 -1.33 17.84 25.99

6 19960223 13.29 8.11 5.33 3.01 -1.31 -2.23 -1.28 2.57 1.21 21.65

7 19950623 13.32 8.16 4.61 2.90 -1.02 -0.90 0.71 5.82 11.32 21.31

8 19951206 13.06 7.28 4.97 3.61 -0.65 0.24 -0.56 5.13 8.52 19.26

9 19950920 13.91 6.89 4.09 3.24 -0.64 -0.98 0.12 3.27 10.76 17.08

10 19980720 14.18 6.81 5.43 3.73 -1.61 -3.11 -7.81-10.15 6.12 16.30

11 20120320 11.37 8.69 4.47 2.47 -0.19 0.50 -1.92 -3.55 3.89 10.90

12 20100415 12.82 7.61 6.41 3.06 -1.61 -0.25 -6.27 -9.51 -2.93 8.91

13 19870807 15.26 8.12 5.28 3.38 1.55 3.40 -1.95-22.47-22.30-16.05

14 19890804 14.92 8.83 4.74 3.18 1.60 0.24 2.85 -1.83 -3.78 0.27

15 19980313 12.61 9.47 6.33 2.77 1.00 2.86 3.85 2.83 -5.57 21.15

16 19990716 14.04 7.20 5.76 4.38 -0.78 -4.36 -6.20-12.08 3.27 6.43

17 19860702 16.14 6.87 4.35 2.70 -0.36 -3.83 -7.04 -7.43 -2.47 20.95

18 19890208 10.00 7.42 5.68 3.35 -0.87 -1.48 -1.53 2.46 16.98 11.49

19 20030908 11.70 6.14 3.81 3.49 -0.82 -1.63 0.21 3.65 11.20 8.20

20 19830624 16.01 8.33 3.84 2.87 -1.14 -1.04 -0.89 -0.53 -4.22 -9.36

21 19970528 13.17 7.25 6.83 3.41 -0.37 -0.84 4.73 6.66 12.77 29.55

22 19850214 11.89 8.43 6.68 2.92 -0.44 -1.67 -2.51 0.80 2.74 20.48

23 19971008 14.80 6.65 3.87 3.02 -0.33 -0.83 -4.76 -1.83 13.12 -1.48

24 19891009 13.90 6.78 3.37 3.02 -0.19 -4.71 -6.46 -2.83 -5.12-15.20

25 20100111 15.34 6.55 4.02 2.59 -0.94 0.28 -5.97 4.13 -6.02 11.12

26 19990407 14.75 7.58 4.54 2.78 1.29 0.12 1.36 5.18 -0.70 14.28

27 19991231 9.16 8.29 5.24 3.05 -0.95 -1.89 -5.09 2.00 -1.00-10.1328 20090722 9.53 10.15 4.17 4.40 2.33 2.21 7.55 14.55 14.43 14.63

29 19850521 10.27 6.20 4.82 3.85 -0.57 -1.03 -0.02 -0.25 6.21 24.16

30 20000407 9.81 6.39 6.47 3.84 -0.78-10.49 -5.52 -2.47 -7.08-25.58

#UP-DN = 8-22 11-19 13-17 16-14 18-12 23- 7

AVG%CHG= -0.20 -0.97 -0.99 0.05 3.29 9.60

MED%CHG= -0.51 -0.87 -0.73 1.40 3.00 11.30

Note posted days prior to the May 21-June 24 5.75% Correction.


10/15

When the Bull is in Play, Avoid Selling in May Wayne Whaley May 21, 2013

We had looked at some studies, such as Sell in Mays after 5% Buy in Falls, which

hinted at the fact, the odds improve a bit for Sell in Mays when aided by start of theyear momentum. That fact is even more pronounced if a great part of that

momentum was concentrated in January. Below are the 17 previous occasions, since

1950, in which Jan-April was positive and included a 4% January. The odds improve

dramatically, at least for the first five months of the Sell in May time frame, as May

through September is 14-3 in this spot for an avg/med gain of 5.04/3.33%, which

doesnt sound overly impressive, until you put in perspective the historically bearish

nature of those five months. This supports the 7% TOY Barometer readings as well,

which hinted at strength into August-September.

MAY-SEPTEMBER WHEN

JAN-APRIL IS POSITIVE AND JAN IS +4%

YEAR JAN-APR% JAN% MAY-SEPT%

1951 9.79 6.02 3.70

1954 13.91 5.12 14.33

1958 8.63 4.28 15.24

1961 12.39 6.32 2.17

1963 10.62 4.91 2.72

1967 17.03 7.82 2.871971 12.81 4.05 -5.40

1975 27.33 12.28 -3.93

1976 12.70 11.83 3.54

1985 7.53 7.41 1.25

1987 19.07 13.18 11.61

1988 5.77 4.04 4.05

1989 11.49 7.11 12.76

1991 13.67 4.15 3.33

1997 8.18 6.13 18.21

1999 8.62 4.10 -3.93

2012 11.16 4.36 3.062013 12.02 5.04 ?

#UP-DN = 14-3

AVG%CHG = 5.04

MED%CHG = 3.33

As of Aug 3, the 2013 Sell in May period is up 7.02%


11/15

June 2013 vs June 2012 Wayne Whaley June 27, 2013

An encouraging development for the Bulls as the Bear Trap on the breakout sellers is

in place. A Bear/Bull Trap occurs when Support/Resistance is broken resulting in

the execution of Breakout Stops. Once the Stops are exhausted, the market will often

then reverse course trading back through the previous support/resistance levelcausing the Breakout traders to scramble to cover their positions and providing

momentum in the opposite direction.

June 2012 June27 8:40amC

Note: The S&P was at 1613.20 at the time of this posting and now five weeks later (Aug 3),

the S&P is 6% higher at 1709.67


12/15

A Mary Poppins Signal Wayne Whaley June 30, 2013

Formally stated, a Mary Poppins Signal, as defined by me, occurs when:

1. The S&P experiences a negative month and,2. There were at least seven consecutive preceding positive months,3. Of which December, January and February participated.

As you can see in the table below, when Ms. Poppins blows into town, the S&P was

practically perfect in every way measurable over the following six months.

S&P Performance After a Seven Month Winning Streak is Broken

And the Streak Encompassed December, January and February

Losing #MtsIn Forward S&P Performance

# Year Month Mt% Streak 1MT% 3MT% 6MT%

01 1936 APR -7.71 12 4.58 15.11 24.98

02 1943 JUL -5.43 7 1.03 2.05 1.46

03 1950 JUN -5.80 11 0.85 9.95 15.49

04 1954 AUG -3.40 11 8.31 14.78 23.23

05 1961 JUN -2.88 7 3.28 3.23 10.69

06 1964 AUG -1.62 8 2.87 3.17 6.84

07 1983 MAY -1.24 9 3.52 1.24 2.46

08 1991 JUN -4.79 7 4.49 4.50 12.37

09 1993 APR -2.54 7 2.28 1.80 6.28

10 1995 AUG -0.03 8 4.01 7.74 13.98

11 1996 JUL -4.57 8 1.88 10.21 22.85

12 2013 JUN -1.50 7 ? ? ?

#UP-DN = 11- 0 11- 0 11- 0

AVG%CHG= 3.37 6.71 12.78

MED%CHG= 3.28 4.50 12.37

Note: The S&P followed this years Mary Poppins Signal with its 11th consecutive positive

following month, up 4.95% in August.


13/15

A 19-1 Week After the 4th Study Wayne Whaley July 3 2013

Based upon a perusal of all seasonal angles available to me, I would give the week

after the Fourth, a 75% chance of posting a win. Below, is the most noteworthy of thestudies of this genre examined, and it plays like this: Since Christmas, the S&P is up

13.27%. Since 1930, there have been 20 previous years, where the Christmas-July

4th time span was up between 10-20%. The week after the Independence Day

holiday was 19-1 in this trailing period setup, for an avg/med gain of 1.32/1.13%

The Week After the Fourth When Christmas-July4th is 10-20%

TRAILING THE WEEK AFTER THE 4TH S&P PEFORMANCE

# YR XMAS-4TH DAY1 DAY2 DAY3 DAY4 DAY5 WEEK

1 1935 13.61 1.16 0.00 1.24 -0.47 0.76 2.71

2 1936 14.74 -0.53 -0.87 0.54 1.21 1.86 2.20

3 1944 12.92 0.53 -0.38 0.23 0.53 0.30 1.22

4 1945 14.30 -1.13 0.34 0.87 0.40 -0.33 0.13

5 1948 10.49 0.00 -0.36 0.12 0.65 -0.24 0.18

6 1954 19.31 1.12 0.07 0.00 0.67 -0.07 1.79

7 1955 16.45 1.21 3.57 -1.39 0.14 0.26 3.79

8 1958 15.06 0.33 -0.48 -0.33 0.38 0.66 0.55

9 1961 13.53 0.64 0.27 -0.06 -0.09 -0.03 0.7410 1963 11.67 0.40 -0.68 0.43 -0.21 -0.19 -0.26

11 1964 11.67 0.46 0.17 0.00 0.12 0.17 0.92

12 1967 11.59 0.49 -0.04 0.41 0.39 0.47 1.73

13 1971 10.12 -0.02 0.28 0.30 0.35 0.13 1.04

14 1976 16.38 -0.55 0.28 0.14 0.96 0.88 1.72

15 1985 14.81 0.56 -0.31 -0.46 0.69 0.30 0.78

16 1989 14.88 0.44 0.28 1.04 0.66 0.52 2.99

17 1991 13.16 0.20 1.03 -0.48 -0.10 0.33 0.98

18 1995 18.98 0.03 1.23 0.43 0.15 -0.43 1.41

19 1999 13.45 -0.22 0.54 -0.09 0.64 -0.30 0.57

20 2003 10.45 1.90 0.34 -0.56 -1.35 0.96 1.2621 2013 13.27 ? ? ? ? ? ?

#UP-DN = 15- 5 13- 7 13- 7 15- 5 13- 7 19- 1

AVG%CHG= 0.35 0.26 0.12 0.29 0.30 1.32

MED%CHG= 0.42 0.22 0.13 0.38 0.28 1.13

Note: The S&P was up 3.69% in the week after July 4th this year


14/15

The Jan 30, 1996 Analogy Wayne Whaley July 11, 2013

If the S&P can fortuitously forge its way to 1700, the 1954 Analogy, which I laid out

earlier this year, will come back in line. We also, noted that in the shortterm, we

look a lot like the summer of 2012, especially in regards to the Bear Trap set at thebottom. But for now, the analogy that is showing up as the consensus choice on my

shortterm price pattern matches is January 30, 1996. The S&P added an additional

24% over the 12 months following January 30, albeit, somewhat rocky at times.

July 11, 2013 11pmC

Jan 30, 1996

Note: The S&P has added an additional 2% since this July 11th study posted three weeks ago.


15/15

Throwing the Bears a Bone Wayne Whaley Aug 1, 2013

The S&P is up 18.20% over the first seven months of the 2013 calendar year, which just

concluded with a 4.96% July. Since 1930, there have been five previous occasions where the

S&P was up 10% for the first seven months of the year and simultaneously concluded with a

3% July. In all five of those previous occasions, the S&P was down substantially over the

remaining five months of the year for an average loss of 22.85%.

S&P PEFORMANCE AFTER A 10% JAN-JUL AND A 3% JULY

TRAILING S&P% FORWARD S&P PERFORMANCE

YEAR JAN-JUL% JUL% AUG% SEP% OCT% NOV% DEC% AUG-DEC%

1930 38.27 3.67 0.75 -13.01 -8.88 -2.18 -7.42 -27.68

1937 60.95 10.26 -5.54 -14.21 -10.17 -10.11 -5.04 -37.87

1941 19.56 5.48 -0.87 -0.97 -6.86 -4.21 -4.51 -16.36

1973 10.94 3.80 -3.67 4.01 -0.13 -11.39 1.66 -9.86

1987 28.97 4.82 3.50 -2.42 -21.76 -8.53 7.29 -22.46

2013 18.20 4.96 ? ? ? ? ? ?

#UP-DN = 2- 3 1- 4 0- 5 0- 5 2- 3 0- 5

AVG%CHG= -2.33 -5.32 -9.56 -7.29 -1.61 -22.85

MED%CHG= -0.87 -2.42 -8.88 -8.53 -4.51 -22.46

I present this study simply as food for thought and suggest we should keep an open

mind to its message, although the Bulls will be quick to counter that:

1) Its only five data points, the first three occurring over seventy years ago during a unique depression type decade and,

2)The last two data points occurred during inflationary periods with extremely highinterest rates of the 8 and 10% variety, much different than todays 3.5% bond yields.

Wayne Sampling

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