wave of democratization

8/13/2019 wave of democratization

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The Third Wave of

DemocratisationGlobalisation, Democracy and CivilSociety in Contemporary Central Asia

SWATI MADAN

11/26/2013


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The meaning of democracy

Modern usage of democracy dates back to revolutionary upheavals in Western society

at the end of the 18thcentury. In the late 2thcentury! three general approaches have

emerged in debates over the meaning of democracy 1" #emocracy as a source ofgovernment authority 2" #emocracy as the purpose served by government $" #emocracy

as the procedures for constituting government. %erious problems of ambiguity arise &hen

democracy is defined as the source of authority or as the purpose of government! so aprocedural definition is used in this study. In other &ords! the ho&' of democracy is

more important than the &hy' or to &hat end' (his vie&)that studies of democracy

should focus on empirical! descriptive! institutional and procedural definitions as opposed

to idealistic definitions)&on out from the 1*+s on&ard. In this tradition! &e can definea 2thcentury political system as democratic to the e,tent that its most po&erful

collective decision makers are selected through fair! honest and periodic elections in

&hich candidates freely compete for votes and in &hich virtually all the adult population

is eligible to vote. (his definition also implies that citi-ens enoy the civil liberties /iespeech! assembly! etc" needed to facilitate this electoral process. (his definition provides

benchmarks by &hich &e can better measure the development of a democracy againstother democracies or itself over time! ie ho& many people vote! ho& many parties share

po&er! is any group systematically e,cluded from po&er.

%everal addition points on defining democracy in this &ay0

1. #emocracy defined in terms of electionsis necessarily minimal. broader

definition of democracy)responsible government! informed and rationaldeliberation! effective citi-en control of policy! eual participation and po&er of

all groups)is &eak in this conte,t because fu--y norms do not yield useful

analysis.2. It is important by this definition that citi-ens elect the real decision makersin a

society! not the freely chosen puppets of some e,ternal force! ie the military or

another government.$. %ystems that ualify as democratic may vary significantly in their stability)the

stability of a system differs from the nature of the system.

3. nalysts disagree over &hether democracy should be seen as a binary or

continuous variable4 &hen you have a clear definition! one can treat it as abinary variable and avoid the problems associated &ith &eighting the

characteristics of democracy as a continuous variable.

5. 6ondemocratic regimes do not have electoral competition and &idespread voting#ifferent scholars defined democracy differently ! democracy is the &orst from of

government e,cept all other / Winston 7hurchill" . obert #ahl defined democracy on

the bases of polyarchy that is ruled by many.


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The Waves of Democratization

(here have been three &aves of democrati-ation! the first t&o follo&ed by limited

reversals of that progress.

9irst &ave /1828:1*2;". (his &ave had its roots in the merican and 9rench revolutions.

(&o criteria marked this first development0 5< of males &ere eligible to vote and a

responsible e,ecutive &ho had to maintain the support of a maority of voters or of an

elected parliament.

9irst reverse &ave /1*22:32". (his period &as characteri-ed by a shift a&ay fromdemocracy to&ard traditional authoritarian or ne& ideologically:driven! mass:based

totalitarian regimes.

%econd &ave /1*3$:;2". llied occupation post:WWII encouraged democrati-ation in

former ,is po&ers! &ith e,ception of %oviet influence in =ungary and 7-echoslovakia.

Mean&hile! the beginning of the end of Western colonial rule produced a number of ne&states &ith democratic tendencies.

%econd reverse &ave /1*58:+5". >specially in ?atin merica! political development in

the early 1*;s took on an authoritarian cast. (he decoloni-ation of frica led to thelargest multiplication of authoritarian governments in history. @ne third of the &orking

democracies in 1*58 had become authoritarian by the 1*+s.

(hird &ave /1*+3:". #emocratic regimes start to replace authoritarian and considerable

liberali-ation occurs in authoritarian regimes. (his takes place in every region of the

&orld and is intensified by the fall of 7ommunism.

Importance of Democracy

%ocial scientists have tried to assess the importance of democrati-ation. (he big issues

are the e,tent and permanence of democracy in nations and in the &orld. Its form ofgovernment is not the only important thing about a country! nor probably even the most

important thing. Aut democracy still matters because0

(he correlation bet&een democracy and the e,istence of individual liberty is

e,tremely high

#emocracies! &hile unruly! are rarely violent.

#emocracies do not fight &ars against other democracies.


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s the &orldBs premier democracy! it benefits the Cnited %tates for the rest of

the &orld to be democratic.

The Third Wave of democratisation

&ave of democratisation! originating in Dortugal and %pain in the 1*+s! s&ept acrossthe developing &orld in the 1*8s and 1**s. (his so:called E(hird WaveB /=untington!

1**1" moved across ?atin merica and >astern >urope! and later sia and frica. (he

transformation in the nature of political regimes &as remarkable0 &hile in 1*+3 there

&ere 31 democracies among the e,isting 15 states! by 2$ about three:fifths of all the

&orldBs states1$ &ere considered formal democracies /#iamond! 2;"! ho&ever

imperfect they might be. #emocratisation can be understood as a process subdivided into

three phases0 /i" the liberalisation phase! &hen the previous authoritarian regime opens up

or crumbles4 /ii" a transition phase! often culminating &hen the first competitive elections

are held4 and /iii" the consolidation phase! &hen democratic practices are e,pected to

become more firmly established and accepted by most relevant actors /@B#onnell and%chmitter! 1*8;4 ?in- and %tepan! 1**;". (his final phase is essential for establishing

durable democratic regimes. s &ill be discussed later in this section! it has also proved

to be the most challenging for emerging democracies in the developing &orld. It is

essential to remember! ho&ever! that democratisation processes need not be linear! and in

a number of cases democratic openings and transitions have not resulted in consolidated

democracies. Instead! many regimes end up Egetting stuckB in transition! or reverting to

more or less authoritarian forms of rule. (hese so:called EunconsolidatedB or EhybridB

regimes have become the focus of considerable attention for academics and policy:makers alike.

Modernisation vs. processoriented approaches to transitions to democracy

(he mainstream literature of the 1*;s and 1*+s /?ipset! 1*5*4 lmond and Ferba!

1*;$4 Moore! 1*;;" espoused a modernisation approach to democratisation! emphasisingthat democracy &as more likely to emerge in countries &ith high/er" levels of socio:

economic development.13 %ome studies also emphasised the importance of cultural and

religious factors! and of historical legacies /i.e. previous e,periences &ithdemocratisation". %uch structuralist approaches to democratisation understood the

emergence of democracy as a conseuence of the transformation of class structure! the

emergence of a bourgeoisie economic development! increasing urbanisation! the priordevelopment of democratic values and other socio:economic factors. (he (hird Wave of

democratisation challenged this concept of EprereuisitesB for democracy. While

the modernisation argument provides an e,planation for transition in %outh Gorea!

(ai&an! (hailand and 7hile! many of the movements to&ards formal democracy tookplace in countries &here such transformation &ould not have been e,pected based on lo&

levels of economic development and other socio:economic indicators. large number of


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countries e,periencing a transition to democracy during the (hird Wave fell in the

bottom third of the =uman #evelopment Inde,. (hird Wave transitions also defied

cultural arguments positing that democracy is incompatible &ith certain faiths andreligious values.15 (he only region that seems to remain relatively outside this &ave of

democratisation is the rab World /%tepan &ith oberston 2$".

The factors that lead to the changes in independent variables in the 1960s and 1970s

produced the dependent variable of a democratizing regime change in the 1970s and

1980s are as follow

!. Deepening legitimacy problems of authoritarian systems

". #lobal economic gro$th of the !%&'s

(. )hanging doctrine of the )atholic )hurch

*. )hanges in the policies of e+ternal actors

,. -no$balling effects

!. egitimacy /roblems

Dost WWII H prevailing democratic ethos developed throughout the &orld. >venauthoritarian regimes increasingly used democratic rhetoric to ustify their legitimacy.

Dolitical legitimacy inevitably declines over time! and authoritarian regimes! unlike

democracies! have no mechanisms for self:rene&al. Door economic performance andmilitary failures undermined legitimacy of authoritarian regimes! bc they had no

procedural legitimacy to change policies! as in democracies.

". 0conomic Development and 0conomic )rises7orrelation b& &ealth and democracy indicates that democratic transitions should occur

in countries at middle level of development. Aroad:based economic development &ith

industriali-ation #@>% contribute to democrati-ation! but &ealth from sale of naturalresources /i.e. oil" goes directly to state! discourages ta,ation! and therefore does 6@(

necessarily contribute to democrati-ation. Increased economic &ell:being shapes societal

values! increases levels of education! facilitates compromises /as there are more resourcesto be distributed"! promotes trade opening! and e,pands middle class. Most active

supporters of third &ave democrati-ation came from urban middle class. %hort:term0

apid economic gro&th can undermine authoritarian regimes if combined &short:termeconomic crisis or failure /author discusses the 1*+s oil crisis and other economic

crises".

(. 1eligious )hanges

(here is a correlation bet&een Western 7hristianity /esp. Drotestantism" and democracy.

Most prominent case of e,pansion of 7hristianity in third &ave democracies is %outh

Gorea! &here post WWII ust 1< of population &as 7hristian! by mid 1*8s 257 officially formed in 1*;*! first e,pansion in 1*+$. (o be a member! countries had to

be democratic. Membership also helped prevent regression to authoritarianism. /Lreece

oined in 1*81! %pain and Dortugal in 1*8;".7onference on %ecurity and 7ooperation in

>urope /7%7>"! =elsinki 9inal ct influenced development of human rights anddemocracy in >urope! particularly by helping to foster openings in >astern >urope.

The !nited "tates

s of 1*+3 H shift to promoting human rights in foreign policy. 7arter administration

strengthened this commitment post 1*++.eagan administration introduced promotion ofdemocratic change as maor foreign policy goal and created the 6ational >ndo&ment for

#emocracy (summarizers note: this is the Endowment that created NDI, where I used

to work, and IRI, as well as the business and labor solidarity groups whose acronyms are

escaping me!C% democracy promotion efforts included0 diplomatic action! economic

pressure! material support for democratic opposition forces! military action and

multilateral diplomacy. (herefore it is difficult to make definitive evaluation of C% role!but C% support &as clearly instrumental to democrati-ation process in many countries/see te,t for many specific e,amples".

The "oviet !nion

>ven more dramatic policy shift has been noticed than in the case of the C% Lorbachev

revoked the Are-hnev doctrine and conveyed to >astern >uropean governments that

%oviet govBt &ould not act to maintain their e,isting communist dictatorships. (hisopened the &ay for ouster of communist leaders! elections! opening of frontiers

&Western >urope! and market:oriented reforms.

,. Demonstration 0ffects or -no$balling

#efinition0 %uccessful democrati-ation occurs in one country and this encourages

democrati-ation in other countries. Why did this happen' 7ountries sa&0

(hat it &as possible to bring do&n authoritarian systems

=@W to do it

What dangers to avoid! difficulties to overcome


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Leneral role of demonstration effects in the third &ave is more important in $rd&ave than

in first 2 &aves because of improved communication. %econdly despite this

demonstration effects still strongest among countries that &ere geographically close andculturally similar /influence of %panish democrati-ation on all of ?atin merica". Most

dramatic sno&balling is seen in >astern >urope in 1*8*. ?astly! #emonstration effects

&ere more influential at the >6# of the &ave than at the beginning. t the end of the1*8s! demonstration effects influenced countries &here other conditions for democracy

&ere &eak or absent.

4ourth Wave of Democratization

>vents in Gyrgy-stan combined &ith previous events in ?ebanon! Dalestine! Ira!

Ckraine! fghanistan and Leorgia! are making me &onder if maybe! ust maybe! &ere at

the beginning of the fourth &ave of democrati-ation. In his book (he third &ave! %amuel

=untington observed that previous moments of democratic regime change took place in

clusters. (he first /small" &ave &as in the early 18s! the second took place

immediately after the %econd World War! and the third &ave started in %outhern >urope

in 1*+3 and ended &ith the collapse of the %oviet Cnion in 1**1. ll &aves of

democrati-ation are follo&ed by counter:&aves! &hich happened in the mid:to:late

nineties! &ith authoritarian and semi:authoritarian regimes emerging in a lot of the post:

%oviet states. =o&ever! the e,ogenous shock of *11! the ose evolution in Leorgia!

and the strong rhetoric of the Aush administration on this front has combined to trigger

some serious political change across the >urasian land mass. (he Gyrgy- e,ample is

likely to send chills do&n the spine of t&o much larger countries :: ussia and 7hina. In

Mosco&! Fladimir Dutin cant be thrilled &ith the fact that he cant have a tea break

&ithout some country in his near abroad overthro&ing a ruler that &as on decent terms&ith Dutin. (he fact that ousted Gyrgy-stan president skar kaev is reportedly feeling

to ussia &ill highlight this painful fact. s for 7hina! Aeiings first preference is not to

have a democratic revolution take place in 7entral sia so close to Niniang :: 7hinas

&estern:most province &ith plenty of restive Cighurs chafing at Aeiings control. ?ets

be clear :: theres a fair amount of fragility in this nascent fourth &ave0 Ira could curdle!

Gyrgy-stan could descend into chaos! =amas could &in Dalestinian elections! and

?ebanon could be split by sectarian strife.

Ay and large the rab &orld has proved to be remarkably stable. =afe- al:ssad! the

current %yrian presidents father! governed &ith an iron hand longer than all of his

predecessors combined4 >gypt had only four presidents /all of them authoritarian" in its

modern history4 at his death Ging =ussein had governed Jordan for more than 35 years4

and in %audi rabia and Gu&ait royal families control politics and po&er to this day.

While the rest of the &orld has &itnessed dramatic political change! the rab &orld

seems trapped in limbo. (here are no& more time:tested democracies in frica! a

continent raked by manmade and natural disasters! than in the rab &orld.... It &ould be


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nice to hope that the Dalestinian and Irai models &ill serve as launching pads for rising

democracies4 but for the foreseeable future! the odds are against it. rabs may be e,cited

and fascinated by political ferment in Ira4 but they are also alarmed by the absence of

public order! the cacophony of %hiite! %unni and Gurdish voices! and the seemingly

irrepressible and violent insurgency. #espite genuine desire among millions of rabs forgreater openness! there &ill be no rush to&ard democracy. 6or should &e be surprised by

the formidable capacity of these authoritarian regimes to uash meaningful reform. In

this regard! getting %yria out of ?ebanon may &ell take much longer than many

anticipated. Darado,ically! the rab:Israeli conflict! &hich most of these regimes

generally &ant to see resolved! serves as a firebreak against the kind of political reform

that many of these regimes dont &ant. 7learly! &hen the rab public is riled up by

events in Dalestine! it is less focused on events at home. If the Aush administration &ants

to pursue democrati-ation in the rab &orld effectively! it should &ork to defuse the

rab:Israeli conflict and deny the regimes the ability to use it to avoid political andeconomic reform.%o far the Ola&less unilateralismO of the Aush administration! along

&ith its failure to OdeliverO Israeli concessions! has generated not the rab nationalist

backlash that the root:causes school predicted! but the end of the ?ibyan nuclear

program! elections in Dalestine and Ira! a move to&ard elections in >gypt! and a

nationalist uprising against %yrian occupation in ?ebanon. (hese events &ould seem

rather good evidence for the proposition that the Dalestinian issue is only one of several

important concerns in Middle >ast politics! not the pivot on &hich all regional events

turn. (he rab &orld is in the throes of a prolonged historical crisis! as its societies!

economies! and polities struggle to overcome their various internal problems and make a

successful transition to modernity. (he Dalestine:is:central dogma offers little insight into

that crisis. ecogni-ing this! the Aush administration has &isely decoupled the Dalestine

uestion from the other maor issues that bedevil rab:merican relations. %o far this

strategy has &orked &ell! bringing benefits to both the Cnited %tates and many rabs. Ay

putting the Dalestinian issue in its proper perspective! it could even end up helping

Dalestinians and Israelis as &ell.

)52)6-I52-

(hese &ere the general causes of the $rd&ave of democrati-ation! uite different from

causes of the first t&o &aves. elative significance of these causes varied by region and

evolved as the $rd&ave progressed. >mergence of social! economic and e,ternal

conditions favorable to democracy is necessary! but notsu""icient! to produce democracy0

political leaders have to be &illing to take the risk of democracy to make it happen.

=o&ever the factors responsible for third reverse &ave are Weakness of democratic


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values among key elite groups and the general public! severe economic setbacks! social

and political polari-ation caused by leftist governments and e,clusion of populist! leftist!

and lo&er:class groups from po&er by conservative groups. =ome:gro&n Mar,ist:

?eninist regimes! continuation of personal dictatorships! military regimes! one:party

systems! radical Islam and the absence of e,perience &ith democracy are the obstacles to

democracy. %ome form of leadership change &ithin authoritarian systems typically

precede democrati-ation and &eakness in democratic values among aged leadership

usually continues throughout the lives of the autocratic leadership

10401102)0-

=untington! %. /1**1" (he (hird Wave0 #emocrati-ation in the ?ate (&entieth 7entury.

6orman 0 Cniversity of @klahoma Dress.

?evitsky! %. and Way! ?. /25" EInternational ?inkage and #emocrati-ationB! Journal of

#emocracy

Lershman! 7. and llen! M. /2;" E6e& (hreats to 9reedom0 (he ssault on

#emocracy ssistanceB! Journal of #emocracy 1+ /2"0 $;:51.

?arry #iamond. EIs (he (hird Wave @ver'BJournal of #emocracy +.$ /1**;" pp.2: $+.

#emocratisationBs (hird Wave and the 7hallenges of #emocratic #eepening0 ssessingInternational #emocracy ssistance and ?essons ?earned 0 ?ise akner /7hr. Michelsen

Institute"! lina ocha Menocal /@#I" and Ferena 9rit- /@#I"

(he fourth &ave of democrati-ation! article from foreign policy(he 9ourth Wave of #emocratisation and dictatorship 0 6on cooperative transition in

the post communist &orld World Dolitics!vol 53! no.2! oo.212:233

the&ashingtonrevie&.orgarticlese,plaining:democratic:failure:in:the:post:soviet:space

dank&art usto&Bs article E

(ransitions to #emocracyBin #avid Dotter and #avid Loldblatt!Margaret Giloh

Daul ?e&is

#emocrati-ationB! 7ambridge0 Dolity Dress in association &ith the@pen Cniversity!

1**+! pp.13:15 113 #avid Dotter and #avid Loldblatt! Margaret Giloh

Daul ?e&is #emocrati-ation 7ambridge0 Dolity Dress in association &ith the @penCniversity! 1**+!pp.13:15


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