Watershed scale conservation
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Watershed Scale Conservation: How Much is
Enough?SWCS
July 29, 2014
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Green Bay
Saginaw Bay
WLEB
Agriculturally Intensive Watersheds in the Great Lakes
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Outcomes at Scale
Supply Chain and Policies
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Great Lakes Ag Strategy:
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Issue Specific
Collaborative
Goal Driven
Accountable and Adaptive
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Agriculture BMPs & Water
Nature
Setting the Decision PointDesired
Condition
Current Condition
Obtaining Sustainable Agricultural Watershed Goals $ Cost
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How Much Conservationis Enough?
Mary Fales, Saginaw Bay Watershed Project Director, The Nature Conservancy
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How Much Conservationis Enough?
Important take home points:• We need a goal and plan!
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How Much Conservationis Enough?
Important take home points:• We need a outcome-based goal and plan!• Long term vision• Target BMPs to highest ROI• Track progress• Look for long term sustainability
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How Much is Enough?
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How Much Is Enough?
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Intense Algae Blooms
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It Depends on Your Goal
Acres of BMPs
Total $$ Spent
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Conservation Effects Assessment Program (CEAP)
Scott P. Sowa, Matthew Herbert, John Legge, Mary Fales, Kim Hall, Patrick Doran, Sagar Mysorekar, Layla Cole, Tia Bowe, Gust Annis, A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi, Lizhu Wang, & Charles Rewa
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Informing Strategic Conservation:Body of Work That Supports Many Strategies
Getting the right information to the right people in the right format to support; 1) setting realistic goals, 2) strategically implement practices, & 3) track progress
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Informing Strategic Conservation
Getting the right conservation practices to the right places, in the right amount, at the right time, as efficiently as possible, to
address the right problem and achieve realistic goals
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Phases of Work
Phase 1 – link fish health to water quality
Phase 2 – link water quality to BMPs
Phase 3 – decision tools to target and track (MSU-IWR)
Phase 4 – Implementation!partnering to set goals and test innovative strategies to achieve them
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• Over 300 actual data points
Phase 1 – Link fish health to WQ
• SWAT model gave us predicted WQ at each point
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Phase 1: Link fish health to WQ
–At what point are water quality variables no longer limiting?
–Other factors still play a role
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Which Variables Are Limiting and Where?PHOSPHORUS NITROGEN
SEDIMENT/FLOW
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Phase 2:Linking WQ to BMPS (and ultimately fish health)
• Used SWAT to model changes in water quality under different scenarios (12 BMPs)
• Current condition• Medium (25%) • High (50%)• Historic Condition
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• Nutrient Management/Waste Utilization
• Conservation Crop Rotation • Filter Strip • Conservation Cover • Residue and Tillage Management
No‐Till/Strip Till/Direct Seed • Mulch Till, Residue Management• Residue Management, No‐Till/Strip Till • Cover Crop • Pasture and Hay Planting • Wetland Creation/Restoration
Selected BMPs
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Sub‐watershed Comparison:Fish Community Health
Current Condition 25% BMP Implementation
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Sub‐watershed Comparison:Fish Community Health
Current Condition 50% BMP Implementation
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Dose Response CurveBMPs Fish Health
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Sub-watershed Comparison:Fish Community Health
50% BMP Implementation
• ~$7.7 M to achieve non-limiting conditions for all 8 variables at the OUTLET of the other 3 sub-watersheds
• More than $44 million to achieve non-limiting conditions in all streams of four focal watersheds
• What are realistic goals?• Lower expectations?• Conservation innovation?
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The Highlights!
TNC and partners have developed the science so we can determine:
1. HOW MUCH: What percentage of the land needs to be treated with practices
2. WHERE: Where conservation practices need to be implemented
3. OUTCOME ORIENTED: All the work is tied to improving fish community health
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Phase 3: Decision ToolsGetting the right information to the right people in the right format at the right time to support the logistics of strategic conservation
Context Target and Track
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Sediment and Nutrient Calculatorswww.iwr.msu.edu/glwms/
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Jeremiah Asher, GIS Project ManagerLaura Young, Research Assistant
Michigan State UniversityInstitute of Water Research
69th Soil Water Conservation Society International Annual ConferenceMaking Waves in ConservationJuly 29, Lombard, Illinois
Great Lakes Watershed Management System Walkthrough
Watershed Scale Conservation: How much is Enough?
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Outline
• Underlying Models– HIT– L‐THIA
• Types of Analyses• Walkthrough Example
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UNDERLYING MODELS
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Background | Models
High Impact Targeting (HIT)HIT estimates sediment loading from agricultural lands to nearby streams
Long‐Term Hydrologic Impact Analysis (L‐THIA)L‐THIA estimates run‐off volumes and pollutant loads
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HIT Model
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HIT: Field Evaluations
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Results: 70% of the time HIT maps correctly characterized the landscape.
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Basic L-THIA Model Components
Hydrologic component estimates average annual direct runoff based on the Curve Number method with daily rainfall data
Water quality component estimates pollutant loadings using estimated direct runoff and coefficients associated with land uses
36Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
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Nonpoint Source Pollution
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L‐THIA produces Average Annual Pollutant Results for sediment, nutrients, a series of metals, and bacterial indicators(e.g. lbs of Nitrogen per year)
Available L‐THIA NPS Outputs in GLWMS:
Total RunoffNitrogenPhosphorousTotal Suspended SolidsLeadCopperZinc
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
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SYSTEM WALKTHROUGH
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www.iwr.msu.edu/glwms
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View Baseline NPS
• Estimates baseline nonpoint source pollutant loadings
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Calculate a Baseline Change
• Estimates the change in runoff and NPS pollutant loadings based on a land cover change or best management practice
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Compare 2 Scenarios
• Specify two different land cover or practices (before and after)
• Allows you to set your own baseline• Useful for when detailed knowledge is available for a land area
http://www.ars.usda.gov/pandp/docs.htm?docid=9372 Photo courtesy of USDA ARS
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Conventional TillageNo Till with Cover Crop
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Phase 4: Test Innovative Strategies
Cass River Watershed Pilot (Sanilac CD)– Test if information and decision tools can foster
changes via traditional Farm Bill to meet conservation action goals
Saginaw Bay Regional Conservation Partnership Program (RCPP)– Set watershed scale sustainability goals and
related conservation action goals to drive changes in behavior through supply chain demand
Pay for Performance in the Bad River Watershed (Great Lakes Commission grant)– Set ecologically meaningful sediment reduction
goals and use online tools to pay farmers per ton of sediment reduced
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New Technology with Traditional Funding Models: Utilize the Farm Bill
Targeting Practices Using Traditional Farm Bill Programs ‐ Partner: Sanilac and Tuscola
Conservation Districts, MSU‐IWR
‐ Mott Foundation Grant
‐ Use modeling to select areas for highest ROI
‐ Targeted technical assistance & outreach
‐ Using the Great Lakes Watershed Management System to quantify outcomes
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Cass River Watershed Demo Project
COVER CROPS
WETLAND RESTORATION
STRIP TILL
EDUCATION
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New Funding Models: Pay for Performance
Sediment Reduction in the Bad River Watershed ‐ Partner: Gratiot Conservation
District, NRCS
‐ Great Lakes Commission Grant ($250,000)
‐ Develop a watershed goal for sediment reduction
‐ Using the sediment calculator to determine reduction amount
‐ Set a payment rate for sediment reduction ($/ton)
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New Funding Models: Drain Fee Reduction Project
Shiawassee River Watershed
‐ Partners: County Drain Commissioner, MSU‐IWR, local conservation district, CD
‐ Cook Family Foundation
‐ Develop a watershed goal for sediment reduction
‐ Set a discount value for sediment reduction ($/ton)
‐ Using the sediment calculator to determine reduction amount
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Opportunities with new Farm Bill
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Regional Conservation Partnership Program
PartnershipsCollaboration
IncentivesFoundations
NGO’s
Outcomes
Corporations
Agri-Business
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Saginaw Bay Watershed RCPP
‐ Partners: Many!
INNOVATIONS:1. Set ecologically relevant
implementation goals
2. Use online tools to target and track progress (Quantify Outcomes)
3. Agribusiness as the Delivery Mechanism
• It can become part of everyday business – efficient/cost‐effective
• Much broader reach and much greater trust
• Scalable to Great Lakes and beyond
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Saginaw Bay Watershed RCPPLEADS:
– Michigan Agri-Business Association– The Nature Conservancy
AGRONOMY RETAILERS:– Star of the West Milling Co.– Crop Production Services– Helena Chemical Co.– Brown Milling – Michigan Agricultural Commodities– Auburn Bean and Grain Co.– Wilbur Ellis– Cooperative Elevator Company
COMMODITY GROUPS: – Michigan Bean Commission– Michigan Sugar– Michigan Soybean Promotion Committee– Michigan Milk Producers Association– Michigan Corn Growers Association– Michigan Wheat Program
CONSERVATION GROUPS– Ducks Unlimited– Delta Institute– Wild Turkey Federation
HIGHER EDUCATION– Michigan State University
STATE AGENCIES– Michigan Department of Natural
Resources (MDNR)– Michigan Department of
Environmental Quality (MDEQ)– Michigan Department of Agriculture
and Rural Development (MDARD)
CORPORATIONS– Kelloggs, Coca-Cola– AgriDrain– Ecosystem Services Exchange
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New Funding Models: Regional Conservation Partnership Program
‐ Goal: at least 55,000 acres of conservation practices
‐ Federal Funding: $20M (for farmers)
‐ Huge opportunity to leverage federal funding‐ Technical expertise‐ Developing goals and enhancing tools‐ Training the project team‐ Outreach: awareness and marketing‐ Tracking progress over time‐ Scaling Up!
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© Scott Warren
Achieving Conservation at Scale with Industry in Western Lake Erie Basin
The Nature Conservancywww.nature.org/wleb
SWCS Conference, Lombard, ILLauren [email protected]
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© Scott Warren
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Cumulative Impacts
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Continually Developing 4R Nutrient Stewardship Certification
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Building Relationships can Scale Conservation & Profits
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Year 1Onsite Audit
Year 2Onsite Audit in the
first certification cycle, possible
Desk Audit in later certification cycles
Year 3Desk Audit for
NSPs that have performed well in previous years.
$600 Annual Registration Fee+
Audit Costs (estimated from $900-$1100/year paid to auditor)
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Grower Customers
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Nutrient Service Providers
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Society
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Triple Bottom Line Evaluation
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Lake Erie - 2014
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Who has funded the development of the 4R Certification Program?
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© Scott Warren
www.4Rcertified.orgLauren Lindemannwww.nature.org/wleb
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Supply Chain Partnerships
SWCS Annual Conference
July 28th, 2014
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Our mission is to conserve the lands and waters on which all life depends
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We pursue non-confrontational, pragmatic
solutions to conservation challenges.
Patagonia grasslands, Argentina ©Bridget Besaw
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The Nature Conservancy has helped protect
more than 119 million acres of land worldwide.
River leading to Iliamna Lake, Alaska habitat the gravel bottoms provide habitat for king salmon ©Ami Vitale
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94
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A Title
95
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A Title
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The agricultural challenge: Feeding humanity while conserving nature
Sustainable Intensification of Agriculture
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Global Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Irrigation Use
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Dead Zones of the World
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Major known eutrophic and hypoxic areas. Reprinted from Selman et al.
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6.6
7.9
9.9
12.4
10.6
9.0 9.3
10.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1980 1990 2000 2010
billi
on b
ushe
ls c
orn
and
mill
ion
tons
nut
rient
(N, P
2O5,
K2O
) Corn Production Nutrient Use on Corn
Source: Computed by TFI from data reported by NASS, USDA.
+87%
- 4%
U.S. Corn Production and Nutrient Use on Corn
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4R Nutrient Stewardship
Sustainability
A management strategy
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WLEB 4R Certification
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Supply Chain Initiatives: Field to Market
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What is the Fieldprint Calculator?
An online education tool for row crop farmers that indexes their agronomics and practices to a fieldprint
Helps growers evaluate their farming decisions and compare their sustainability performance
– In the areas of:• Land use• Soil conservation• Soil carbon• Water use• Energy use• Greenhouse gas emissions• Water Quality• Biodiversity in development
– Against:• Their own fields• Their own performance over time
• County, state and national averages
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Fieldprint Calculator Summary Page
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Sample Results:Resources per bushel, Soybeans
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A Closer LookSoybean Results: Soil Erosion
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• Total soil erosion decreased over most of the study period, but has increased more recently (similar for corn)
• Per acre soil erosion decreased during first half of study period, then leveled off (similar for corn, cotton, and wheat)
TOTAL PER ACRE PER BUSHEL
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Top Down
Bottom Up
Supply Chain Alignment
Supply chain engagements, growing region/ watershed scale
Field scale metrics, tools & pilots
4R
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© Scott Warren
Questions?