Water scarcity versus agricultural production a new way ...€¦ · water use Irrigation Module...

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Water scarcity versus agricultural production

– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of

resources under arid conditions –

10th WSTA Gulf Water Conference, Doha, Qatar


– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management

of resources under arid conditions –

Dr. Jens Grundmann

Dresden University of Technology

Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology

Co-Authors

Schütze, N.; Walther, M.; Schmitz, G.H.; Lennartz, F.; Al-Kindi, R.

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Latin AmericaBrazil

Middle EastOman

Eastern EuropeUkraine

Central AsiaMongolia

South-East AsiaVietnam

Outline

Surface and Subsur-face Water Module

AssessmentWater Resources Availability

Prognosis: Future Climate Scenarios

Groundwater Module

Water Demand

AgriculturePotential and actual

water use

Irrigation ModuleTechnical SystemWater-BackboneAquifer Pumping

Artificial Recharge

Management: • optimal and sustainable management strategies of water resources• operative optimal control of the technical system

Planning: Evaluating the effects of planning scenarios for a most beneficial policy

APPM

Robust Simulation Tool of Water Resour-ces System (ANN)

Optimisation and Management Tool

Water supply

Water Productivity of Agriculture

Decision Making: Objectives, Management Options, Constraints, etc.

Mon

itorin

g

Soci

o-ec

onom

icD

evel

opm

entSurface and Subsur-

face Water Module



Groundwater Module

Water Demand


water use


Artificial Recharge



APPM



Water supply



Mon

itorin

g

Soci

o-ec

onom

icD

evel

opm

ent

1 Motivation & Objectives

2 A new Tool for sustainable Management of

Resources

• Structure

& Modules

• Water Resources

• Agriculture

• Management

3 Implementation

4 Summary, Conclusion

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Batinah Region of Oman

excessive groundwater abstraction

due to irrigated agriculture

Inversion of groundwater’s natural

gradient (flow direction)

Marine saltwater intrusion

Saline irrigation water and thus –

saline soils

Destruction of agricultural resources

Decreasing farm income &

abandoned farms

impacts the food security of the

country

Saline intrusion in coastal areas

Wadis Bani Kharus, Ma‘awil, Taww

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Saline intrusion in coastal areas

Objectives

• Optimal integrated water management

and long-term planning system for

water quality and quantity

• Sustainable management of water and

soils

• Balancing water demand and

availability

• Improvement of water use efficiency in

irrigated agriculture by novel irrigation

techniques


Challenges

• Coupled dynamic agricultural - coastal

aquifer system

• Climate and global change

Wadis Bani Kharus, Ma‘awil, Taww

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APPM

Management:• optimal and sustainable management strategies of water resources • operative optimal control of the technical system


Water Demand


water use

Irrigation Module




Groundwater Module


Technical SystemWater-BackboneAquifer Pumping

Artificial Recharge

Water supply



Mo

nit

ori

ng

Soci

o-e

con

om

ic D

eve

lop

me

nt


2 A Tool for sustainable IWRM in arid RegionsStructure and Submodules

12

3

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wadi runoff(flash floods)

sea

saltwater intrusion

extraction wellsnear the coastline

irrigated agriculture(most important)

rainfall

recharge dam for artificial ground-water recharge

infiltration

Hadjar mountain Batinah plain Coastal zone

P(x,y,t)

Aflaj(3 types)

surface runoffQi(x,y,t)

irrigated oases agriculture

Groundwater

model domain

Qgwn,m

Qin

Qa

Qw

Qinf

ET

ETET

ETR

Qp

Qw,d

Qgwn,w

Qs

QloSea losses

Qa

Qw,d

P(x,y,t)

ETR

Assessment Tools for Water Resources - Hydrological Processes -

1

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sea

saltwater intrusion



rainfall


infiltration


P(x,y,t)

Aflaj(3 types)



Groundwater

model domain

Qgwn,m

Qin

Qa

Qw

Qinf

ET

ETET

ETR

Qp

Qw,d

Qgwn,w

Qs

QloSea losses

Qa

Qw,d

P(x,y,t)

ETR

Assessment Tools for Water Resources - Groundwater Modelling -

1

• Three-dimensional density driven

groundwater flow model for simulating

the aquifer behavior inclusive salt

water intrusion phenomena based on

OpenGeoSys (OGS) Kolditz et al. 2012

• Development of a hydrogeological

model of the coastal aquifer for the

pilot area

• Steady state calibration

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sea

saltwater intrusion



rainfall


infiltration


P(x,y,t)

Aflaj(3 types)



Groundwater

model domain

Qgwn,m

Qin

Qa

Qw

Qinf

ET

ETET

ETR

Qp

Qw,d

Qgwn,w

Qs

QloSea losses

Qa

Qw,d

P(x,y,t)

ETR

Assessment Tools for Water Resources - Groundwater Recharge -

1

Q(t)

t

Q(t)

t

Dam inflow

Dam outflow

Q(t)

tRecharge Recharge

Wadi channel routing

with infiltration

Recharge dam

simulation

Wadi channel routing

with infiltration;

free lower boundary

Subsurface

Runoff

Recharge at the

mountain front

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• Boundary Conditions for the Groundwater-

Model

• Uncertain subsurface catchment divide due

to geological characteristicsContour plot of oxygen isotopes (d18O) (Weyhenmeyer et al., 2002)


1

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GIS-based approach for spatially distributed

recharge-rates in % of annual areal

precipitation based on geomorphologic

variables (height, slope, lithology, soils)


1

• Boundary Conditions for the Groundwater-

Model

• Uncertain subsurface catchment divide due

to geological characteristics

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GIS-based approach for spatially distributed

recharge-rates in % of annual areal

precipitation based on geomorphologic

variables (height, slope, lithology, soils)


1

Fuzzy-approach for characterising

uncertain subsurface catchments

estimation of potential ranges of fresh

water availability

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1

Groundwater recharge estimation

Approach 1: Straightforward

60 – 73 MCM/a

Mean annual value Gerner et al. 2011

Groundwater recharge estimation

Approach 2: Inverse

68 MCM/a

Steady state calibration of Groundwater

model using optimizationWalther et al. 2012

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„more crop per drop“The UN World Water Development Report, 2003

sustainable IWRM requires reducing the amount of water used in Oman’s agriculture without reducing food production

Higher water productivity

Assessment & Planning Tools for Agriculture - Increasing water use efficiency and food production -

2

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Assessment & Planning Tools for Agriculture - Simulation optimization of irrigation control and scheduling -

2

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Basic TOOLS for Assessment,

Management, Planning and

Adaption:

• Irrigation experiments

• Validated SVAT Models

→ transfer of experiments in

space and time

• Optimization tools

→ best layout, scheduling,

cropping pattern

• Monte Carlo simulation

→ high reliability of irrigation

management under climate and

soil variabilitySchütze & Schmitz, 2010: OCCASION: A new Planning Tool

for Optimal Climate Change Adaption Strategies in Irrigation.

In: Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering 136


2

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seasonal applied water

Schütze & Schmitz, 2010: OCCASION: A new Planning Tool



Estimation of Crop Water Production

Functions - CWPF

Deficit

irrigation

Full

irrigation

Non

sustainable

range

max WP max Yield


2

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Schütze & Schmitz, 2010: OCCASION: A new Planning Tool




2

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2

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How can we manage an interacting groundwater - agriculture system sustainably

regarding water quantity and quality under uncertain climatic and global impacts ?

Challenges

• Long simulation times and the complexity of physically based models as well as

global optimization procedures

• Consideration of the model interactions within the optimization process

3-dimensional density dependent

groundwater flow

Crop growth and yield by

salty irrigation water

Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Challenges -

3

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2D-CWPF0.9OGS-ANN

Methodology

1. Development of appropriate surrogate models

2. Multicriterial simulation-based optimization



Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - The use of surrogates -

3

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Objective Function

Optimisation Module

Global Evolutionary Technique for

Optimal Water Management

Cropping pattern Aj

Water demands Qj

Cultivated Acrage Lj

Water demands Qj

Agricultural Module

Revenues

Pj*Yj

IrrigationSchedule

Irrigation

Costs CIj

Water Resources Module

Groundwater

Pumping Cost CPj

OpenGeoSys-2D Groundwater

Model packed in ANN

Aquifer State

S(ti-1), h(ti-1)

Aquifer State

S(ti), h(ti)

SustainabilityIndex

Aquifer State

[S(tn), h(tn)]-

[S(t0), h(t0)]

MaximizeProfit and

Sustainability

Yields Yj

for m crops

2D-CWPF‘s

for m crops

Irrigation Water

Salinity S(ti)

Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Multicriterial simulation-based Optimization framework -

3

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Management objective:

GroundwaterManagement objective:

Farmer

High profit

Low costs

High quality products

Water with good quality

Long term availability

of water resources

good water quality

Abstraction < recharge

How to find the best compromise between the two objectives ?

depends on the actual preferences of the decision makers

Multicriterial optimisation Evaluation of pareto-optimal solutions

Contradicting objectives



Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Multicriterial simulation-based Optimization -

3

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Szenario:

Long term profit

Szenario:

multi-objective

Szenario:

Long term sustainability

Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Exemplary Application - Results -

3

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Long term profit Multi-objective

cro

p f

rac

tio

n [

%]

sa

lin

ity [

dS

]p

rofi

t [$

]

Sorghum

MaizeSorghum

Maize

OUTPUT

Crop pattern

Abstraction rates

Cultivated acreage

Profit for farmers

Salinity of the aquifer

Water levels of the aquifer

Cost benefit analysis for

stakeholders

Salinity of irrigation water

Irrigation schedule

Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Results -

3

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AssessmentResources,

Impacts / Pressures,

Players / Needs

Management

optionsDevelopment,

Investigation

Decision

makingEvaluation

of options

ImplementationMeasures,

Investments,

Awareness

Monitoring

Follow upLessons learned

3 Implementation

The integrated management process

Recursion after 6-10 years

time

Aim: sustainable IWRM and development of resources




Groundwater Module

Water Demand


water use


Artificial Recharge



APPM



Water supply



Mo

nit

ori

ng

Soci

o-e

con

om

icD

evel

op

men

tSurface and Subsur-face Water Module



Groundwater Module

Water Demand


water use


Artificial Recharge



APPM



Water supply



Mo

nit

ori

ng

Soci

o-e

con

om

icD

evel

op

men

tAppropriate methods and models are required

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workshops

Pilote Farms &

Guidebook

Experiments

3 Implementation - Capacity Development & Activity Plan

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• Some key issues of the new APPM-Tool for an integrated management of

arid zone water resources were presented inclusive first steps of

implementation.

• Modelling of density driven groundwater flow is mandatory.

• An increase of water productivity can be achieved by introducing novel

irrigation methods.

• A prototype of a simulation based water management model for

managing both water quality and quantity was presented.

• The methods of artificial intelligence (ANN) allow for a fast and robust

application of the process models in an optimisation framework.

• Multicriterial optimization can provide a tool for decision makers to find

sustainable solutions in an environmental, economical and social sense.

• A sustainable management of water and soils is a precondition for food

security

4 Summary

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Thank you for your attention !

Thanks to Niels Schütze, Gerd H. Schmitz, Franz Lennartz,

Alex Gerner, Sebastian Kloss,

Marc Walther, Hamed Al-Hatmi

The Omani Ministries of:

Regional Municipalities and Water Resources

Agriculture and Fisheries

Thanks for funding

OMAN




Journal papers

Schütze, N., & Schmitz, G. H., 2010: OCCASION: A new Planning Tool for Optimal

Climate Change Adaption Strategies in Irrigation. Journal of Irrigation and

Drainage Engineering. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0000266

HONORABLE MENTION PAPER AWARD 2012

Grundmann, J., Schütze, N., Schmitz, G.-H., & Al-Shaqsi, S., 2011: Towards an

integrated arid zone water management using simulation based optimisation.

Environmental Earth Sciences. Doi: 10.1007/s12665-011-1253-z.

Schütze, N., de Paly, M., & Shamir, U., 2011:. Novel simulation-based algorithms for

optimal open-loop and closed-loop scheduling of deficit irrigation systems. Journal

of Hydroinformatics. doi:10.2166/hydro.2011.073

Kloss, S., Schütze, N., Schmitz, G.-H., 2011: Comparison of SVAT models for

simulating and optimizing deficit irrigation systems in arid and semi-arid countries

under climate variability. Water Resources Management. DOI: 10.1007/s11269-

011-9906-y.

Walther, M., Delfs, J.-O., Grundmann, J., Kolditz, O., Liedl, R., 2012: Saltwater

Intrusion Modeling: Verification and Application to an Agricultural Coastal Arid

Region in Oman, Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics (accepted)

Gerner, A., Grundmann, J., Walther, M., Schmitz, G.H., 2011: Groundwater recharge

as a crucial aspect in water resources development for the Barka region.

International Conference on Drought Management Strategies in Arid and Semi-

Arid Regions, Muscat, Oman

Philipp, A., G. H. Schmitz, R. Liedl (2010): An Analytical Model of Surge Flow in Non-

Prismatic Permeable Channels and Its Application in Arid Regions. Journal of

Hydraulic Engineering 136(5), 290-298

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Perspectives of an Integrated Management• Design of a water distribution network (Water-Backbone) to

deliver water of good quality to the farms

Suitable Sites for Groundwater Extraction

new wellfields

Desali-nation

water reuse

Aflaj ?

neighboring catchments

• Recultivation of

salty farm land and

of valuable soils for

agriculture

• Incorporation of

other sources of

water

• Recycling of water

for a sustainable

economic and

environmental

development

• Water of better quality delivered to consumers

•Extraction of ground-water at suitable sites

Technical realisation by

Supply System

Water scarcity versus agricultural production a new way ...€¦ · water use Irrigation Module...

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