Water  Resources  Planning  and  Governance  in  Highly  Contested  Rivers  

RiverSymposium,  9  October  2012    Robert  Speed  Okeanos  Pty  Ltd  

   

The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.

Charting Our Water Future

6 Executive Summary

The drivers of this resource challenge are fundamentally tied to economic growth and development. Agriculture accounts for approximately 3,100 billion m3, or 71 percent of global water withdrawals today, and without efficiency gains will increase to 4,500 billion m3 by 2030 (a slight decline to 65 percent of global water withdrawals). The water challenge is therefore closely tied to food provision and trade. Centers of agricultural demand, also where some of the poorest subsistence farmers live, are primarily in India (projected withdrawals of 1,195 billion m3 in 2030), Sub-Saharan Africa (820 billion m3), and China (420 billion m3). Industrial withdrawals account for 16 percent of today’s global demand, growing to a projected 22 percent in 2030. The growth will come primarily from China (where industrial water demand in 2030 is projected at 265 billion m3, driven mainly by power generation), which alone accounts for 40 percent of the additional industrial demand worldwide. Demand for water for domestic use will decrease as a percentage of total, from 14 percent today to 12 percent in 2030, although it will grow in specific basins, especially in emerging markets.

While the gap between supply and demand will be closed, the question is how. Given the patterns of improvement of the past, will the water sector land on an efficient solution that is environmentally sustainable and economically viable? There is every reason to believe it will not. The annual rate of efficiency improvement in agricultural water use between 1990 and 2004 was approximately 1 percent across both rain-fed and irrigated areas. A similar rate of improvement occurred in industry. Were agriculture and industry to sustain this rate to 2030, improvements in water efficiency would address only 20 percent of the supply-demand gap, leaving a large deficit to be filled. Similarly, a business-as-usual supply build-out, assuming constraints in

Exhibit I

Basins with surplus

Municipal &Domestic

6,900

Basins with deficits

Agriculture

Industry

Existingaccessible, reliable, sustainablesupply1

4,500

Existingwithdrawals2

2030withdrawals3

Surface water

Aggregated global gap between existing accessible, reliable supply1 and 2030 water withdrawals, assuming no efficiency gainsBillion m3, 154 basins/regions

3,100

4,5003,500

800

1,500

900

600

2,800

1004,200

Groundwater700

1 Existing supply which can be provided at 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and infrastructure investments scheduled through 2010; net of environmental requirements

2 Based on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRI3 Based on GDP, population projections and agricultural production projections from IFPRI; considers no water productivity gains between 2005-2030

SOURCE: Water 2030 Global Water Supply and Demand model; agricultural production based on IFPRI IMPACT-WATER base case

-40%

Relevant supply quantity is much lower that the

absolute renewable water availability in nature

CAGR2%

Units:  billion  m3  

Source:  Mckinsey,  2009,  Char%ng  our  Water  Future  

Historical  PerspecHves  and  Approaches  

Infrastructure & water use

• water resource (surface) • reconciliation • demand projections • water supply regulation • system optimisation

Systemic water resources

• catchment (IWRM) • resource protection • demand management • WQ management • stakeholder engagement

Growth & development

• political-economic • inter-sectoral • uncertainty (change) • water as catalyst/const • adaptive management

pre-­‐1970’s   1980’s  &  1990s   2000’s  

Issue  1.    

•  In  heavily  contested  basins,  it  is  oQen  no  longer  possible  to  allocate  and  manage  water  resources  to  meet  all  developmental  demands.  

•  Water  is  both  a  major  constraint  and  also  a  catalyst  for  economic  development.  

ShiQ  from  “water  for  the  economy”  to  “water  in  the  economy”  

The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.

Lesson:    Water  plans  and  development  plans  should  be  developed  through  an  itera6ve  process    

Issue  2.  

•  People  –  and  what  they  value  –  maXer  in  water  resources  management.  All  the  more  so  in  contested  basins.  

Lesson:    Understand  the  social  and  cultural  values  and  incorporate  those  in  the  process  

Issue  3.  

•  Where  water  resources  development  offers  clear  social  and  economic  benefits,  environmental  protecHon  needs  to  demonstrate  an  equally  compelling  case.          In  developing  countries,  this  is  even  more    criHcal.    

95%  decline  in  fish  fry  

Lesson:  the  importance  of  good  science  and  monitoring  only  increases  as  basins  become  more  contested  

Issue  4.  

•  Challenges  associated  with  water  security  are  intricately  linked  with  issues  related  to  food  and  energy  security  

Lesson:    Understand  the  connec6ons,  the  dependencies,  and  the  costs  and  benefits  

Issue  5.  

•  Having  an  aspiraHonal  vision  for  a  basin  can  promote  a  long-­‐term  view    BUT    may  not  always  provide  guidance  on  how    trade-­‐offs    should  be  managed  

Pegram  et  al.,  2012  

Lesson:    Acknowledge  that  you  can’t  have  everything  and  decide  what  it  is  you  want  from  the  basin    

Thank  you!