Water Productivity and Upgrading Rainfed

Results from the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in AgricultureCo-Sponsors:

Setting the Scene

Most hungry and poor people live where water challenges pose a constraint to food production

Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005)

the semi-arid and arid tropics: 840 million malnourished people remaining

Smallholder farmers

Urban poor

Rural landless

Pastoralists, fishers,forest-dependent

Source: FAO data, graphic from SEI

The 840 million undernourished.

Dependent on Water for Agriculture?

Nutrition, food security, incomeLower Food Prices

Employment

Vulnerable to loss of water

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Million US$

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120

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320

Irrigation (million hectares)

Food price index (1990=100)

WB lending (1990 constant price)

Investing in Irrigation

Water Scarcity 2000

Little or no water scarcity

Physical water scarcity

Approaching physical water scarcity

Economic water scarcity

Not estimated

Reasons for poverty, hunger, water scarcity, and gender inequity are political and institutional, not technical

• Support institutions need to be able to better support women to reach MDGs

• Need more informed negotiations to make difficult choices

• More effort is required to clarify rights to land and water to promote investments.

• No blue print approach

The Dilemma:

• Major investments in water have helped economic growth, prevented famine and achieved record low food prices

• But agriculture drives water scarcity and environmental degradation.

• But poor people need more water for food and livelihoods

• Where will it come from? Who gets it?

The Water-Food-Environment Dilemma

Debates on the way forward

• Relative investments in small and large, rainfed and irrigated

• Role of trade• The prioritization of

ecosystem water needs• The role of agriculture

itself in poverty alleviation

The CA combined a diverse group to engage in these debates

The CA and the Millennium Development Goals

How can water for food be developed and managed to…• Help end poverty and hunger?• Ensure environmentally sustainable water-agriculture

practices?• Find the balance between food and environmental

security?

How much more food – future meat demands

World Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia OECD

Meat demand in kg/cap/yr

How much more cereals?Kg/cap/yr

World Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia OECD

Total food demand nearly doubles by 2050

Water (ET) demand doubles if no increases in water productivity

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food feed other

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Grain Sugarcane Vegetables

How can we produce enough food for 2 to 3 billion more people, and meet the MDGs on poverty, hunger and environment?

Vital Questions: • How much more water will we need?• Where will it come from?• What type of water management?

Where to find the water? Options:

1. Expand irrigated areas – divert more “blue water” from rivers and aquifers

2. Expand rainfed areas – turn more natural area in to arable land – use more “green water”

3. Increase water productivity: produce more with less water, i.e. more crop per drop, but also more animal products with less water

4. Manage demand – diets, reducing post-harvest losses from farm to fork

5. Trade in virtual water

Dependence on green and blue water 2000

August 2006

114

654

1080

239

787

1505

1692

907

219

Areas in green: agriculture mainly under rainfed

Areas in blue: agriculture mainly under irrigation

Circles depict total crop depletion

-250

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-150

-100

-50

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Years

National rainfall index: Variation from trend (mm)

-800

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Total cereal production - Variation from trend ('000 tons)

National rainfall index

Cereal production

Burkina Faso: Relation between rainfall and cereal production

Water Productivity

• Physical Water Productivity– Kilograms produce per unit of water (ET or

diverted)

• Economic Water productivity– Value per unit of water (ET or diverted)

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5,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18yield (t ha -1 )

wheat

maize

rice

rockstrom

Potential for water productivity gains small –

already met.

Highest potential for WP gains, usually in rainfed

areas

Where can gains in physical water productivity be made?

2 4 6 8

Wat

er P

rod

uct

ivit

y (m

3 /E

T)

per

kg

)

Yield (kg/ha)2 4 6

1

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3

8

Growth in yields

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1866187118761881188618911896190119061911191619211926193119361941194619511956196119661971197619811986199119962001

yield in ton/ha

USA SSA L America China

A Range of Ag Water Management Options

Upgrade Rainfed AgricultureWater management in rainfed areas deserves more attention

Enhance Water ProductivitySoil-water managementSupplementing rainfall with a little blue water at the right timeWater harvesting, groundwater for source Soil fertility plus water – synergistic effect

Investments in small scale water managements show quick returns, do not necessarily require large public funding

Can benefit a lot of people

Making it happen• Managing risk is a key – create a good

environment to invest in agricultural inputs

• Water at the right time is part of the risk management strategy (storage)

• Extension – more on how to manage water (why doesn’t Ministry of Water Resources look after upgrading RF systems?)

• Step up the scale of research and attention to the topic

What about irrigation?

What about large scale irrigation?

The era of rapid expansion of irrigated agriculture is over – but need to improve existing systems

• Irrigation development - viable option for poor countries where agriculture is the major component of GNP

• Even if area of large scale irrigation doubles, impact on food is small – only 8% will come from large scale irrigation

• Are conditions right – human capacity, institutions, markets?

Kumasi

Timbuktu

• Area developed (22 schemes): 8,750 ha• Actually irrigated area: 5,200 ha

Formal irrigation sector

Informal irrigation sector• Irrigated area around

cities in central Ghana: 45,000 ha

Informal, small-scale irrigation is big in Africa

Ghana

Source: IWMI

Significance for livelihood support

Vegetable irrigation Formal Informal

Distance from water source

88% >500 m 65% <100 m

Cost of production (US$/acre)

2240 160

Gross Revenue (US$/acre)

2860 530

Net returns (US$/acre)

620 370

B/C ratio

1.3

3.3

Source: IWMI

Economic Productivity – more value per drop

• Increasing yield per unit of blue or green water• Changing from low to high value crops (ie wheat

to flowers)• Reallocating water from low to higher valued

uses (ie from agriculture to cities)• Increase benefits: health and value of ecological

services• Decrease costs: inputs, social, health and

environmental costs • Obtain multiple benefits per unit of water (ie use

water for drinking and agriculture)

Multiple Use Systems

More Value Per DropMultiple-use systems – integrating domestic water,

irrigation, fisheries, livestock – provide income, nutrition and health benefits, and improve water productivity.

• Provide women with opportunities• But irrigation needs to adjust to manage for multiple

uses

In Conclusions• Investments in water and agriculture essential to

meet MDGs on poverty and hunger• Upgrading rainfed and small scale water

management are keys• Investments needed in human capacity

– Education – integrated approaches to water management

– Research to adapt to local conditions– Institutional reform to support sustainable agricultural

water management

Thank you

Per capita per day calorie supply

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

2,750

3,000

3,250

3,500

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Calorie supply (Kcal)

World Developed Countries Developing Countries Sub Saharan Africa South Asia

Source: FAOSTAT, 2001

Developed

Sub-Saharan Africa

WorldSouth Asia

Asia

Acceptable Level

It takes a litre of water to produce every calorie, on average

0

2

4

6

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10

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Exp

loitab

le yield g

ap

FAO data

high

medium

low

To

ns

per

hec

tare

Maize

AT 2030

Exploitable yield gap in SSA rain fed areas more than 4 tons/ha

Yield growth projections:

low = 20% of yield gap bridged; med = 40% of yield gap bridged high = 80% of yield gap bridged

Maximum attainable yield 6 ton/ha

Actual yield 1.4 ton/ha

* Based on GAEZ attainable yields

0

2

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10

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

FAO data

Exp

loitab

le yield g

apT

ons

per

hect

are

AT 2030

Exploitable yield gap in OECD rain fed areas less than 0.5 tons/ha

* Based on GAEZ attainable yields

Maximum attainable yield 9.1 ton/haActual yield 8.6 ton/ha

Maize