Water Productivity Anallysis in the Indo-Ganges Basin
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Transcript of Water Productivity Anallysis in the Indo-Ganges Basin
WP3: Water Productivity AnalysisWP3: Water Productivity Analysis
CaiCai, Bharat, Bharat, Upali, , Upali, GiasGias, Susana, , Susana, AsadAsad
Water Productivity• Basin performance on agril. water
utlisation- Crop (livestock, fish ) water productivity kg/m3
- Water value-adding $/m3
- Net value/costs
Factors affecting water productivity
Scope for WP Improvement
How well is the water used?
Levels of Analysis
• RS/GIS based water productivity analysis of theIG basin ( whole basin)
• Agro-hydrological modeling using OASIS performance assessment and strategic planning tool ( Sub-Basin scale)
• Fish-productivity analysis for eastern Gangetic basin ( Bangladesh)
• District –level water productivity analysis using census-data and field surveys ( Basin/ country level analysis)
• District-level rice water productivity analysis for Bangladesh ( Completed)
RS/GIS based water productivity analysis of theRS/GIS based water productivity analysis of the
IG basin: Progress and future plansIG basin: Progress and future plans
Xueliang Cai and Bharat Sharma
24-2-2009
Structure of the Presentation
Introd.
Data
LULC
Introduction
Prod.
Data collection
Crop dominance map synthesizing
Land productivity mapping
Water Water use mapping
Results The water productivity mapping results
Plan Action plan for 2009
Water productivity – the concept
Water productivity (WP) is “the physical mass of production or the economic value of production measured against gross inflow, net inflow, depleted water, process depleted water, or available water” (Molden, 1997, SWIM 1). It measures how the systems convert water into goods and services. The generic equation is:
)/m(m inputWater
)$/m or (kg/muse waterfrom derived utputO)$/m or (kg/moductivityPrWater
23
2233
=
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Why mapping water productivity
The overarching goal of Water Productivity assessment is to identify opportunities to improve the net gain from water by either
• increasing the productivity for the same quantum of water; or
• reduce the water input without or with little productivity decrease.
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Basin WP Analysis – What to Care?
• Magnitude – what’s the current status?
• Spatial Variation – how does it vary within and among regions?
• Causes – why is WP varying (both high and low)?
• Irrigated vs. rainfed – what’s the option for sustainable development under water scarcity and food deficit condition?
• Crop vs. livestock and fisheries – how is livestock and fisheries contributing to water use outputs?
• Scope for improvement – how much potential for, where?
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
The Methodology
1. Data collection: production, weather data, MODIS NDVI and Land Surface Temperature (LST) products, existing
LULC maps and GIS layers, GT points;
2. Crop dominance map synthesizing;
3. Land productivity:1. district/state wise agricultural productivity map from
census;
2. Interpolating to pixel wise productivity using MODIS NDVI indices;
4. ET mapping:1. Potential ET map with FAO approach;
2. Actual ET estimation using SSEB model;
5. Water productivity mapping.
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Data Collection
1. Census data: district wise crop area, yield and production, state wise livestock and fisheries production;
2. Satellite sensor data: MODIS 250m 16 day NDVI mosaic of the basin, MODIS 1km 16 day Land Surface Temperature (LST) products: Nov 2005 – Oct 2006;
3. Weather data: daily temperature, humidity, sea level pressure, precipitation, wind speed collected for 58stations: 2005 – 2007;
4. LULC maps: USGS GLC 1992-93, IWMI IG basin LULC map 2005, IWMI GIAM 10km (1999) and 500m (2003);
5. Other data layers: basin boundary, administrative boundaries, road, railway, and river networks, DEM
6. Ground truth data: see continued…
Data collection
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
A ground truth mission was conducted in India from 8th -17th Oct, 2008
• Across Indus and Gangetic river basin
• >2700km covered
• 175 samples
– LULC
– Cropping pattern
– Agricultural productivity (cut and farmer survey)
– Water use (rainfed, surface/GW)
– Social-economic survey
Crop Dominance MapSynthesizing existing maps to a crop dominance map with GT data
500m, IWMI, 2003500m, IWMI, 2005
1km, USGS, 1992-1993
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Legend
00 Ocean and other areas
01Irrigated, surfacewater, rice, single crop
02 Irrigated, surfacewater, rice, double crop
03 Irrigated, surfacewater, rice-other crops, single crop
04 Irrigated, surfacewater, rice-other crops, double crop
05 Irrigated, surfacewater, rice-other crops, continuous crop
06 Irrigated, conjunctive use, mixed forest, rice-other crops, continuous crop
07 Irrigated, surfacewater, wheat-other crops, single crop
08 Irrigated, surfacewater, wheat-other crops, double crop
09 Irrigated, surfacewater, wheat-other crops, continuous crop
10 Irrigated, surfacewater, sugarcane-other crops, single crop
11 Irrigated, surfacewater, mixed crop, single crop
12 Irrigated, surfacewater, mixed crops, double crop
13 Irrigated, groundwater, rice-othercrops, single crop
14 Irrigated, groundwater, rice-othercrops, double crop
15 Irrigated, groundwater, cotton-other crops, single crop
16 Irrigated, groundwater, cotton, wheat-other crops, double crop
17 Irrigated, groundwater, cotton, soyabean-other crops, continuous crop
18 Irrigated, groundwater, sugarcane-other crops, single crop
19 Irrigated, groundwater, mixed crops, single crop
20 Irrigated, groundwater, plantations-other crops, continuous crop
21 Irrigated, conjunctive use, rice-other crops, single crop
22 Irrigated, conjunctive use, rice, wheat-other crops, double crop
23 Irrigated, conjunctive use, wheat, rice-other crops, double crop
24 Irrigated, conjunctive use, rice, sugarcane-other crops, continuous crop
25 Irrigated, conjunctive use, wheat-other crops, single crop
26 Irrigated, conjunctive use, cotton-other crops, single crop
27 Irrigated, conjunctive use, cotton, wheat-other crops, double crop
28 Irrigated, conjunctive use, sugarcane-other crops, single crop
29 Irrigated, conjunctive use, soyabean, wheat-other crops, double crop
30 Irrigated, conjunctive use, mixed crops, single crop
A “crop dominance map” of namely year 2008 shows major crops rice and wheat area, and other mixed croplands. Watering sources are also given for IGB map.
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Crop Dominance Map
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Crop Productivity
Step 1. District wise productivity map using census data
IGB paddy rice yield map of 2005 Crop GVP map of India and Nepal for 2005 Kharif season
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Crop ProductivityStep 2. Pixel wise rice productivity map interpolation using MODIS data
paddy rice yield map of 2005NDVI composition of 29 Aug – 5 Sept 2005 for rice area
MODIS 250m NDVI at rice heading stage was used to interpolate yield from district average to pixel wise employing rice yield ~ NDVI linear relationship.
Actual ET Estimation
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Step 1. Potential ET calculation (2005-09-21 as example)
Daily data from 58 weather stations
Steps:1. Hargreaves equation for reference ET.2. Kc approach for potential ET.
Note: Kc (FAO56) was determined by maximum Kc values of major crop of the month
potential ET map (2005 Sept 21)
Actual ET Estimation
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Step 2. Actual ET calculation by Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) approach
Seasonal actual ET map (2005 Jun 10 – Oct 15)
potential ET map (2005 Sept 21)
ETa – the actual Evapotranspiration, mm.
ETf – the evaporative fraction, 0-1, unitless.
ET0 – Potential ET, mm.
Tx – the Land Surface Temperature (LST) of pixel x from thermal data.
TH/TC – the LST of hottest/coldest pixels.
CH
xHf
TT
TTET
−
−=
fpa ETETET ∗=
SSEB
ET fraction map (2005 Sept 21)
MODIS LST 2005 Sept 21
Water Productivity Maps
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Rice productivity (kg/m3)
2.50.090.3060.6180.618
MaxMinSDVAVGMean
Rice water productivity for 4 major IGB countries (unit: kg/m3)
0.603Average0.701Average
0.964MechiNepal
0.904KosiNepal
0.833PunjabIndia0.792MahakaliNepal
0.818DelhiIndia0.754NarayaniNepal
0.746HaryanaIndia0.715RaptiNepal
0.720RajasthanIndia0.713BheriNepal
0.718West BengalIndia0.699SetiNepal
0.560Uttar PradeshIndia0.607GandakiNepal
0.430Jammu & KashmirIndia0.583BagmatiNepal
0.408BiharIndia0.578JanakpurNepal
0.407Himachal PradeshIndia0.556SagarmathaNepal
0.393Madhya PradeshIndia0.542LumbiniNepal
0.617Average0.625Average
0.755PunjabPakistan
0.732SindPakistan0.856RajshahiBangladesh
0.657BaluchistanPakistan0.796KhulnaBangladesh
0.580Azad Kashmir Pakistan0.533BarisalBangladesh
0.525FATPakistan0.496DhakaBangladesh
0.451North-west FrontierPakistan0.445ChittagongBangladesh
WP_MEANADMIN_NAMECountryWP_MEANADMIN_NAMECountry
Water Productivity Maps
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Rice productivity (kg/m3)
Water Productivity Maps
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Crop water productivity (US$/m3)
Crop WP varies significantly to rice WP although rice is the predominant crop in Kharif season
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
MODIS LST 2005 Sept 21
WP, ET and climate conditions
Long term average rainfall (Jun 10 – Oct 15)
Actual ET (Jun 10 – Oct 15) Rice productivity
Water Productivity Maps
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Preliminary findings:
1. Basin average evapo-transpiration (328mm) is close to long term average precipitation (323mm) for the rice growing period;
2. Water productivity in Indo-Gangetic river basin is generally low, meaning great scope for improvement;
3. Significant variability exists across fields and regions. General decline from North-west to South-east could be observed;
4. The variability shows no direct relationship with climate conditions, implying the significance of irrigation;
5. Sugarcane, pulses and millet make significant contributions to the overall productivity of water.
Work Plan for 2009
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
1. ET and yield mapping using higher resolution Landsatimages to study water consumption pattern and yield distribution;
2. Agro-hydrological modeling
3. Scaling up to basin
4. Write up
2008 – basin water productivity assessment (done)
2009 – Sub-basin analysis
Work Plan for 2009
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
1. ET and yield mapping using higher resolution Landsatimages to study water consumption pattern and yield distribution;
Same approach as conducted in 2008
However,
It provides better spatial resolution maps to separate crops, agricultural and non agricultural water use for command areas, and provide unique yield map for model calibration.
Work Plan for 2009
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
2. Agro-hydrological modeling using OASIS performance assessment and strategic planning tool.
� Planning level model – rapid assessment of strategic options for integrated Irrigation water management� Structural interventions (reservoirs, irrigation and drainage
canals…);� Alternative water management practices (water delivery,
reservoir operation, surface-ground water conjunctive use…);� Water availability changes under climate change and
competitive water use situation;� Land use and cropping pattern changes.
� Emphasis on water balance� Water balance components (inflow, outflow, depletion…);� Diversion;� sources and benefits of depletion;� fate of return flows (non-consumed water).
Work Plan for 2009
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
2. The modeling exercises help to to address:
– (sub-) surface water cycling processes under various water demand – supply scenarios;
– crop responses to the water, and causes for yield and WP;
– System potential (more yield and/or less water diversion);
– Possible interventions.
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
Sub-catchment modeling and links to basin WP assessment
Agro-hydrologicalModel (OASIS)
Time series Landsat data
Data input Weather data
Yieldmodeling
SSEB
Validation
Validation
Model unitAverage WP
LandsatWP map
Water accountingcomponents
yieldRice yield map
(kg/m2)Actual ET maps
Basin MODISWP map
Verifications
Water productivity values, variations, factors and potential assessmentscenarios
Introd.
Data
LULC
Prod.
Water
Results
Plan
papers31 Dec 2009Papers submitted1-2 Scientific papers10
report31 Dec 2009Final report9
Basin intervention recommendation
31 Oct 2009� Identify basin and sub-basin WP link,� Identify common factors for both scales� Basin intervention recommendation
Scaling up6
Factors, local intervention recommendation
15 Oct 2009� analyze and identify scenarios� Factors evaluation� Intervention assessment
Scenarios analysis5
System water balance, WP indices
30 Sept 2009� Supply – demand analysis� Water consumption analysis� WP assessment� Scope for improvement
Baseline performance assessment
5
Model setup31 Aug 2009� System layout conceptualization� Input data� Calibration using ground and RS data
Model setup and calibration
4
ET map, Rice yield map, WP map
31 Aug 2009� Rice yield modeling � Rice productivity map� Accuracy assessment� Reference ET calculation� ET mapping based on reference ET and Landsat LST data� WP map
RS based WP analysis3
Data base for BFP-IGB sub-catchement
31 Jul 2009� ground data collection� Landsat images download and normalization
Sub-catchment data collection and pre-processing
2
Paper for submission31 Mar 2009� arranging outputs� draft a paper for submission
Write up for 2008 works
1
OutputDateActivityTasks
Work Plan for 2009
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Barisal
Bogra
Chittagong
CHT
Comilla
Dhaka
Dinajpur
Faridpur
Jamalpur
Jessore
Khulna
Kishoreganj
Kushtia
Mymensingh
Noakhali
Pabna
Patuaklhali
Rajshahi
Rangpur
Sylhet
Tangail
Dis
tric
ts
Kilogram per cubic meter of CWU
197
01
99
02
00
4
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Barisal
Bogra
Chittagong
CHT
Comilla
Dhaka
Dinajpur
Faridpur
Jamalpur
Jessore
Khulna
Kishoreganj
Kushtia
Mymensingh
Noakhali
Pabna
Patuaklhali
Rajshahi
Rangpur
Sylhet
Tangail
Dis
tric
ts
Kilogram per cubic meter of CWU
19
70
19
90
20
04
Rabi cro
p:
Ric
e
Kharif
cro
p:
Ric
e
Levels
of
wate
r pro
ductivity
of
kharif
and r
abi rice c
rops f
or
Bangla
desh d
istr
icts
for
sele
cte
d y
ears
(197
0,
1990 &
200
4).