Resolving Conflicts Between Security Compliance and Human Behaviour
Water, Peace, and Security - World Water Week...“Peak Water,” Security, and Conflict...
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Water, Peace, and Security Stockholm International Water Week 2019 Peter H. Gleick http://www.pacinst.org http://www.worldwater.org/ @petergleick
Transcript of Water, Peace, and Security - World Water Week...“Peak Water,” Security, and Conflict...
Water, Peace, and Security
Stockholm International Water Week 2019Peter H. Gleick
http://www.pacinst.org
http://www.worldwater.org/
@petergleick
“Peak Water,” Security, and Conflict
• Definitions of “security” vary and are expanding.
• There is a long history of conflicts over fresh water.
• Such conflicts take many forms (as a trigger, weapon, casualty).
• The risks of water-related disputes are growing, including over “peak water” constraints of all kinds.
• These water-related factors will have both direct and indirect impacts on security and conflict.
• Water as a trigger– Scarcity (drought); access and control (pastoralists vs.
farmers; cities vs. agriculture)
• Water as a weapon–Han River, Korea; diverting water away from villages;
opening/closing floodgates on dams for strategic purposes (Iraq 2017); poisoning wells (Somalia 2017)
• Water systems as targets or casualty–WWII, Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Yemen
“Water Wars?” Or More Complex?
The Water Conflict Chronology(www.worldwater.org)
Photo: David J. Phillip AP 2017
The Water Conflict Chronology
http://worldwater.org/water-conflict/
3000 BC 1940 AD 2019 AD
Timeframe of Database Coverages
ACLED: 1997-Present
Global Terrorism Database: 1970-2016
RAND: 1968-2009
Global Coverage
Region-Specific Coverage
Yemen Data Project: 2015-Mar 2019
Social Conflict Analysis Database: 1990-2016
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UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Datasets 1946-2016
Timeframe of Water Conflict Chronology
Global Chronology 1950-2005: Mohtadi and Murshid, 2006
Gleick, 2019. Water as a Weapon and Casualty of Conflict. Water Resources Management. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-019-02212-z
The Water Conflict Chronology
Solutions: Reducing the Risks of
Conflict
Reducing the Risks of Water Conflicts
• Technical (address peak water)• Improve efficiency of water use in all sectors
• Explore new supply options
• Economic (improve efficient allocation/use)• Reduce water subsidies; price water properly
• Modernize agricultural water use; invest in infrastructure
• Management (address institutional fragility)• Public/ private/ community systems; multiple scales
• Energy and water integration !!
• Political (move toward cooperation)• Effective and comprehensive water-sharing agreements
• Equitable water rights allocations and control
• International humanitarian law
• Treaties, International Principles/Conventions• International Laws of War
– Protection of civilians– Protection of critical civilian infrastructure– Protection of the environment
Including:Specific River Basin AgreementsThe Geneva Convention of 1949Additional Protocols to the Geneva Convention 1977Environmental Modification Convention 1978UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses
of International Watercourses (1997)
Political/Legal Approaches
How many water-related conflicts would be solved by more sustainable use of water
overall?
Summary and Recommendations
• There are strong historical links between water, energy, climate, and security.
• Conflicts over water seem to be worsening.
• The failure to address them will lead to inappropriate actions and unnecessary risks, especially in fragile states.
• Smart policies can be efficient and effective, but trends are in the wrong direction.
• Strategies that are appropriate for moving toward “sustainable water” are also important in this context.
Dr. Peter H. Gleick
Pacific Institute
Oakland, California
@petergleick
www.pacinst.org
