Water in the West - Session 3 - Mike Hightower
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Transcript of Water in the West - Session 3 - Mike Hightower
Management of Forest Ecosystems to Improve Water Availability and Ecological Resilience in the West
Mike Hightower
Sandia National Laboratories
Albuquerque, NM
Laura McCarthyThe Nature ConservancyNew Mexico Field Office
Transformational Solutions for Water in the WestUniversity of New Mexico, September 5, 2013
Climate Change will Impact Precipitation, Evapotranspiration, and Runoff
“Water is where the climate change rubber meets the road”Dr. Bernie Zak, Sandia Sr. Climate Scientist, 2013
Nat. Geo. April 2009 from IPCC
10% reduction in precipitation equals a 20% reduction in runoff in the SW
Southwest Climate History Based on Tree Ring Data
10
12
14
16
18
20
Year
Avg. Precipitation
(inches)
The southern U.S is the 100th year of a 300 year arid cycle, this is not what we should be calling a drought
Univ. of Arizona – Tree Ring Research Lab
“Results are not predictions, but rather a starting point for dialogue and increased awareness of potential impacts of climate change.”
Roach et al, 2013
Projected Rio Grande Flows through 2100
Traditional Western Surface Water Availability Relies Heavily on Annual Mountain Snowmelt
Illustrative example (Southwest)
Month
60-70 % of western river flows come from runoff of snowmelt in mountain watersheds
Two major contributing factors - forest management and climate
.
.....
The Number, Size, and Severity of Forest Fires Has Grown Significantly in the U.S. Over the Last Four Decades
Noted by U of A 2006, and finally by NOAA 2012, NASA 2012, USDA 2012, Harvard 2013, 2013 draft NCA
Forest Management Contributions to Fire Intensity
Many small trees, high intensity fires
Few large trees, low intensity fires
• Past forest and fire management practices have contributed to increased fuel loads and fire severity.
• Future management practices must consider climate change impacts.
(Tree Diameter)
Photo: Craig Allen, USGS
Ecosystem Damage from High Intensity Fires
Watershed, Water Quality, and Reservoir Damage from High Intensity Fires
Possible Future Impact of Forest Fires on Mountain Watersheds
Climate change is compounding already unhealthy forest conditions
“You might get to the point where in some parts of the West, there are no more forests.”
Don Wuebbles, 2013 Draft NCA
Forest Treatments Can Reduce Fire Intensity and Reduce Snowpack and Water Yield Loss
Thinning can reduce snow sublimation by up to 50% (Veatch et al. 2009)
Winter ablation in burned areas reduces snowpack by 50% (Harpold et al. 2013)
Transformational Forest Management Solutions to Improve Water Availability and Ecosystems
Improve fire modeling tools to quantify ecologically and water shed safe forest thinning treatments for individual watersheds
Thinning could generate as much as 100 tons per acre of biomass – volumes compatible with distributed rural energy uses such as gasification
Forest fire fighting and fire damage costs can approach or exceed forest thinning costs