MACT – Subpart ZZZZ (4Z) Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines (R.I.C.E.) MCIC Workshop
Water Balances and Climate Change Bruce Peachey, P.Eng., MCIC President, New Paradigm Engineering...
-
date post
21-Dec-2015 -
Category
Documents
-
view
214 -
download
0
Transcript of Water Balances and Climate Change Bruce Peachey, P.Eng., MCIC President, New Paradigm Engineering...
Water Balances and Climate ChangeWater Balances and Climate Change
Bruce Peachey, P.Eng., MCICBruce Peachey, P.Eng., MCICPresident, New Paradigm Engineering President, New Paradigm Engineering
Ltd.Ltd.U of A - Chem Eng Student NightU of A - Chem Eng Student Night
March 23, 2004March 23, 2004
Areas to Cover
Chemical Engineers and Climate Change Global Water Balance North American Water Use and Impacts Evidence for Regional Water Impacts Evidence for Local Water Impacts Our Role for the Future
Chemical Engineers & Climate Change Edmonton Section meetings on
Climate Change• Jan, 1998 - Kyoto impacts discussed• May, 2000 - Proposed 7 potential sources of
climate change• Feb, 2002 - New IPCC data review supported
Human Enhanced Water Evaporation (HEWE) as the most likely
2002 Discussion Paper Circulated Dec, 2003 Presentation to CMOS
Water Balances and Climate Change Familiar to chemical engineers Climate changes mainly water and energy
• Air can’t carry much energy without water Proposed that Human Enhanced Water
Evaporation (HEWE) rather than GHG Warming is the main cause of Climate Change
Water Balances can potentially be used to prove which theory is correct
Global Water Cycle (km3 x 103/yr = Tt/yr)
Land Ocean
11171
40
40
425 385
Source: Global Warming – The Complete Briefing – John Houghton
Latest Data Indicates Globally atmospheric GHGs are up Globally average temperatures are higher
• Northern Hemisphere higher especially last 10 years• Night-time lows increasing more than day-time highs• More over land than over oceans. • Cooling in some areas of southern hemisphere and
Antarctica Growing Season – Increase by 1 to 4 days per
decade in northern hemisphere
Latest Data Indicates Precipitation increases (5-10%) over most
land areas in mid to high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere
• No observed increase in southern hemisphere
• Correlated to increases in clouds and extreme weather.
Heavy precipitation events increased in northern latitudes
• Likely a 2 to 4% increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events in last 50 years in Northern Hemisphere
Latest Data Indicates Atmospheric Water Vapour Increased
in Northern Hemisphere by several percent per decade
Cloud cover in Northern Hemisphere increased by 2%•Positively correlated with decrease in diurnal temperature range (night-time warming)
Latest Data Indicates Sea-Ice in Northern Hemisphere
decreasing• No trends in Antarctic sea ice apparent.
Non-polar glaciers – Widespread retreat except in coastal areas.
El Nino Events – More frequent, persistent and intense over the last 30 years
The Big Question?
Where did all the extra water come from???????
•GHG Warming of Oceans?• HEWE on Land?
• Somewhere else???
Water Balance just GHG Warming?
Land Ocean
11171
40
40
425 385
+4
+42 - 38+4
+4Oceans should be affected the most
Closing the Balance with HEWE
Land Ocean
11171
40
40
425 385
+4
+4
Land should be affected the most
World Precipitation Trend = +2% avg since 1900; = +2000 Gt/yr avg over 100 years
Source: IPCC Scientific Report
Annual Global Water Withdrawals
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Cu
bic
Kil
om
eter
s (G
t/yr
)
Source: Scientific American – February 2001 – Peter H. Gleick
Original Chart showed cubic miles x 4.6 to get cubic kilometers
=+2% Increase avg precip over the last 100 years
Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitude Water Vapour Concentrations1981-1994Oltmans and Hoffman, Nature, 375 (1995)
Altitude (km)
Conc (ppm) Avg Annual Increase (%)
10-12 59.2 1.03
12-14 11.88 0.49
14-16 4.66 0.54
16-18 3.87 0.73
18-20 3.85 0.84
20-22 4.07 0.54
22-24 4.21 0.38
24-26 4.29 0.34
How Does HEWE Theory Fit the Facts? Source is anthropogenic and increasing Should cause increased warming in
cold areas. Should cause increased rainfall and
severity of storms Unusual patterns Increases night time low temperatures
due to day/night cycling as dew point is raised
610
30
710
580
128 14
709
174
328
World Water Withdrawals = 3414 Gt/yr + 25% evap. from damsSource: World Resources Institute 2003
Feeding Antarctic Ice Loss?Antarctic Peninsula - Sciam Dec’02 “The only part of Antarctica
certain to have been affected by global warming”Irrigation In SA
•Feeding energy and water onto the peninsula?•Only 1000km and carried by prevailing winds and ocean currents
No Effect - Stable for 15 million years
Ice sheet has disappeared at least once in 600,00 yrs
North American Water Use
Mainly Used for Power Generation in the U.S. and Canada; followed by Irrigation
Patterns of water use vary by region Amount of Natural Renewable Water
Resource Withdrawals• Canada - 1.4%• United States - 25.6%• Mexico - 18.1%• (NB Not including water reservoir evaporation)
47%
33%
11%7% 1%
PowerIrrigationPublicIndustryLivestock
U.S. Water Use - 1995Total = 556 Gt/yr = 12% of World Use
Regional Indicators of Water Impacts Weekend rainfall (Cerveny and Balling 1998)
• Rainfall 22% higher on Saturdays on East Coast• Lowest on Sunday to Tuesday
Workweek temperature effects (Forster and Solomon 2003)
• Diurnal Temperature Ranges weekly variations Three days after 9/11 - Lower night time
temperatures• Attributed to radiative impacts of airplane
contrails• However, other things were also not happening
The Heat Pipe Effect
Water added in Hot Dry Areas
Water givesUp Heat and
FallsIn Cold Areas
Day/Night Cycles
Water Transport
Workweek Effects - Forster and SolomonSciam September 16, 2003
Red - Night-time temperatures lower on weekdaysBlue - Night-time temperatures lower on weekends
Time delay in the heat pipe?
Air can travel 1000’s km/day. Water moleculeon average spends10 days in the air
Work Week Water Pulse?
Canadian Water Use - 1996Total = 44.72 Gt/yr = 1.4% of Supply
64%14%
9%
12% 1%
Thermal Power
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Municiple
Mining
NB Hydroelectric supplies 62% of energy demand
Water Withdrawals by Province (Gt/yr)
3.53.8
28.3
6.5
2.8
Atlantic
Quebec
Ontario
Prairies
B.C.
NB Does not include evaporation from hydroelectric reservoirs
Feeding Energy to Melt the Glaciers
& Warm/Dry Out the Prairies?
N.B. 44% of Alberta’s and 30% of B.C.’s water use on an annual basis is forIrrigation - But all of it is emitted in the summer months! 5 Gt/yr
Summer Water Pulse?
1 tonne of water vapour condensing to water can melt 6.7 tonnes of snow or ice
River Flows Out= 131 Gt/yr
River Flows In= 70 Gt/yr
Evaporation= 261 Gt/yr
Precipitation= 337 Gt/yr
*Groundwater Recharge????= 15 Gt/yr
Net SurfaceRunoff Added
= 61 Gt/yr
Alberta Water Balance?
Alta Water Use: 9.4 Gt/yr + res evap 16+% of Avail
•80% of Avail in North•<20% of use is in North•Alta uses 50% of waterIn S. Saskatchewan River
Source: Alta Env David Trew March 22, 2004
Local Effects? - Lightning “Bright Sky, Dirty City?” Sciam May 2001 Increased lightning
in areas centered on large refining complexes.
Attributed to pollution seeding cloud formation
But…Largest emission from refineries is water vapour
Is this Aerosols or Water???
This is definitely water!
Do nuclear plants cause lightning as well?
The Balance of Evidence - Says... Human Enhanced Water Evaporation
(HEWE) SHOULD BE THE major factor in Climate Change Equation
GHG impacts may still be a concern and are an indicator of energy waste so should still be reduced by reducing energy use
Finding the right solutions means addressing the right problem.
HEWE – Implications Agriculture Industry
• Improvements needed in irrigation practices
• Select crops that suit the local climate
Electrical Power Industry• Reduce power use; S/D nuclear (206 vs. 140 l/kw-hr)• Increase efficiency from 40% to 80% with cogen• Reduce Water Use
Some responses to GHG make HEWE worse• Dams, water transfers south, biomass energy,
nuclear power
Does It Matter Which Theory is Right? Likely no theory is entirely right. Best strategy is to find “Robust
Solutions” which:• Minimize Water added to
atmosphere• Reduce Energy Waste Fossil Fuel
Consumption Reduce GHG emissions
• Create Wealth (improve standard of living - current and future)
New Paradigms? Not Really Sustainable Development is based on:Reduce
• Waste of energy, water and other resources on trivial wants so they are there when future generations need them.
Reuse – Resources more than once Recycle – If you can’t do the first two. Replace – Feel good placebo in last place. Wasting
“Renewable” Power is still a waste of resources • Is it really green?
The Challenge for ChemE’s Lobby to get someone studying Human
Enhanced Water Evaporation impacts on climate and local weather (CMOS?)
Encourage discussing HEWE in public forums or with governments
Ensure the right actions are taken rather than the politically correct or expedient ones
"Difference of opinion leads to inquiry, and inquiry leads to truth" - Thomas Jefferson
Let’s Keep the Water Balanced!
Contact InformationNew Paradigm Engineering Ltd.10444 - 20 Avenue Edmonton, AlbertaCanada T6J 5A2
tel: 780.448-9195email: [email protected]
web: www.newparadigm.ab.ca