Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook - cra…
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February 5, 2021 Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University
Transcript of Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook - cra…
February 5, 2021
Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook
Center for Regional AnalysisSchar School of Policy and Government
George Mason University
U. S. Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Seasonally Adjusted, Chained 2012 Dollars )
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
$10,000
$11,000
$12,000
$13,000
$14,000
$15,000
$16,000
$17,000
$18,000
$19,000
$20,000
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions)
%
Q4 2019-Q4 2020 -2.5%
Annual Change in U. S. Payroll JobsMonth-Over-Year
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Jan 2020 –Jan 2021-9.13M
-21000
-16000
-11000
-6000
-1000
4000
US Payroll Job ChangeMonth-to-Month
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Dec 2020 –Jan 2021
+49K
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
150,000
155,000
160,000
165,000
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1-mo. change (in thousands)
total payroll jobs(in millions)
U.S. Payroll Jobs
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Since 2010(Jan 2010)
+12.8M
Since 2020(12-mo. ∆)
-9.6M
Dec 20 –Jan 21
(1 mo. ∆)+49K
U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector12-Month Net Change (Jan 2021)
13
-238
-139
-456
-269
-223
-67
-575
-378
-3,823
-1,294
-793
-1,273
-4500.0 -3500.0 -2500.0 -1500.0 -500.0 500.0
Federal Govt.
Information
Transp. & Util.
Other Services
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Financial
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hosp.
State & Local Govt
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Educ & Health Svcs
total = -9.6M
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Ranked by Size in 2019 (000s)
-24
16
-28
7
14
-3
8
-10
-38
-61
67
97
-7
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Federal Govt.
Information
Transp. & Util.
Other Services
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Financial
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hosp.
State & Local Govt
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Educ & Health Svcs
(000s)Ranked by Size in 2019
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector1-Month Net Change (Jan 2021)
total = +49k
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
U.S. Unemployment Rate
%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Jan 20216.3%
Dec 20 –
Jan 211-mo. ∆-0.4%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
U. S. Unemployment
January11.1%
U-6
UR
LFPR
January6.3%
January61.4%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
60.00
60.50
61.00
61.50
62.00
62.50
63.00
63.50
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jan 2020 -Jan 2021(12-mo.)change:
U-6 4.2%UR 2.7%
LFPR -2.0%
175
1,175
2,175
3,175
4,175
5,175
Source: Department of Labor (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Jan 30
S.A.+ 779k
2007-21average422.2k
(000s)
Initial Claims for Unemployment4-Week Moving Average (2007-2021)
175
1,175
2,175
3,175
4,175
5,175
Source: Department of Labor (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Jan 30
S.A.+ 779k
2011-21average
414k
(000s)
Initial Claims for Unemployment4-Week Moving Average (2011-2021)
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
AverageWeeklyEarnings
Real AverageWeekly Earnings(1982-84 dollars)
12-month% change(MOTYC)
Dec 2020
Avg HourlyWages+5.1%
Avg WeeklyEarnings
+6.3%
Real AvgWeekly
Earnings+4.9%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Average Weekly EarningsU. S., Total Private, Across all Industries
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
QOTYC Index
Labor ProductivityNonfarm business, seasonally adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Base year (100) = 2012
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
Consumer Confidence
Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Expectations Index
Present Situation Index
Jan 2021Pres. = 84.4Exp. = 92.5
(1985 = 100)
Annual Consumer Prices 2001-2020Year over Year % Change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
42
00
1
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
12-month % change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
12-month % change
Monthly Consumer Prices2001 – 2020
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
30-Yr
10-Yr Treas
Fed
Interest Rates2001 - 2020
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
-3.50
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
10-year/1-year Treasury YieldConstant Maturity Rate Yield Spread (1953-Present)
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
%
Note: horizontal axis “tick marks” reflect June 1 of each year
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1,050
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Existing Home Sales
New Home Sales
U. S. Home SalesNew and Existing (2013-Present)
(000s)
Source: U.S. Census (New Home Sales) [Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate], National Association of Realtors (Existing Home Sales)
(000s)
Existing Home Sales12-month changeDec 19 – Dec 20
+22 %
New Home Sales12-month changeDec 19 – Dec 20
+15.18%
Change in U. S. PersonalConsumption Expenditures
5.1
2.5 2.63.2
3.8 3.63.1
2.2
-0.2
-1.3
1.7 1.91.5 1.5
2.9
3.7
2.7 2.5 2.6
1.4
-2.7
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
62
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
1.9
-0.1
-2.5
2.6
1.6
2.21.8
2.5
3.1
1.7
2.3
3
2.2
-3.5-4
-2
0
2
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis , GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U. S. GDP Annual % Change2007 – 2020
%
The Washington Economy
Elements of Population Change Washington MSA
48,235 49,169 47,989 47,150 46,096 43,886 42,616 40,778 39,384
24,87239,715 36,871 43,070 47,495
40,581 44,76039,621
22,977
21,517
6,8434,495
-24,741 -27,907 -31,010-21,543
-30,581 -29,748
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Natural Increase Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration
1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.52%
Po
pu
lati
on
Ch
ange
Source: U. S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program (2018 estimates)
-325-300-275-250-225-200-175-150-125-100
-75-50-25
0255075
100125150
Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA (1991-2020)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
emp
loye
es, i
n t
ho
usa
nd
s
Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA (2012-2020)
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
3,500
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
12-month net change total employees
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
thousands thousands
Dec 2020Total: 3.22M
Dec 19-Dec 20
-177.8k
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
DC SMD NoVA DC MSA
Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA, DC-SMD-NoVA (2012-2020)
emp
loye
es, i
n t
ho
usa
nd
s
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
301
99
1
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeDistrict of Columbia (1991-2020)
emp
loye
es, i
n t
ho
usa
nd
s
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
12-month net change total employees
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
thousands thousands
Dec 2020Total: 752.4k
Annual Job ChangeDistrict of Columbia (2012-2020)
Dec 19-Dec 20- 52.1k
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
401
99
1
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
emp
loye
es, i
n t
ho
usa
nd
sAnnual Job Change
Suburban Maryland (1991-2020)
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
12-month net change total employees
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
thousands thousands
Dec 2020Total: 988k
Annual Job ChangeSuburban Maryland (2012-2020)
Dec 19-Dec 20- 49k
-140
-90
-40
10
60
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
emp
loye
es, i
n t
ho
usa
nd
sAnnual Job Change
Northern Virginia (1991-2020)
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
1,600
-140.0
-120.0
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
12-month net change total employees
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
thousands thousands
Dec 2020Total: 1.47M
Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia (2012-2020)
Dec 19-Dec 20
- 67.8k
Employment Composition by SectorWashington MSA Dec 2020
1.7%
2.0%
2.2%
2.3%
4.9%
5.2%
6.3%
7.8%
8.6%
10.2%
11.7%
13.1%
24.1%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Transportation & Utilities
Information
Financial Activites
Construction
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Retail Trade
State & Local Government
Federal Government
Education & Health Services
Professional & Business Services
Job Change by SectorWashington MSA
Dec 2019 – Dec 2020Total = -177.8k
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
-3.4
1.2
-8.8
-4.5
-4.8
3.0
-10.5
-6.6
-83.5
-26.8
9.2
-31.2
-11.1
-100.0 -80.0 -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Transport/Utilities
Information
Financial
Construction
Other Services
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hosp.
State & Local Govt
Federal Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof/Business Svcs
(Ranked by Size in 2019) (000s)
Job Change by SectorWashington MSA
Nov 2020 – Dec 2020(000s) Total = -6.9k
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
0.3
0.0
2.1
-0.7
-0.4
-0.7
-0.6
6.2
-9.3
-8.1
-0.2
2.0
2.5
-12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Transport/Utilities
Information
Financial
Construction
Other Services
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hosp.
State & Local Govt
Federal Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof/Business Svcs
(Ranked by Size in 2019)
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
MOTYC
Total Jobs
Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA
(000s)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(000s)
Dec 19-Dec 20
- 11.1k
600.0
620.0
640.0
660.0
680.0
700.0
720.0
740.0
760.0
780.0
800.0
820.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0Professional, Science & Tech MOTYC Admin Support & Waste Mgmt MOTYC Professional & Business Services Employees (total)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA
(000s) (000s)
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0Professional, Science & Tech MOTYC Admin Support & Waste Mgmt MOTYC Professional & Business Services Employees (total)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Professional & Business ServicesNorthern Virginia
(000s) (000s)
Federal GovernmentWashington MSA
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional AnalysisDec 2020 total: 376k
(000s) (000s)
345
350
355
360
365
370
375
380
385
390
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MOTYC
Total Jobs
Dec 2019 –Dec 2020
+9.2k
Federal Spending in the Washington MSAFiscal Years 1980-2020
4.2 5.0 5.8 6.7 7.7 9.0 10
.7
11
.4
11
.5
11
.9
12
.6
14
.6
15
.6
16
.1
17
.9
19
.4
20
.8
21
.7 24
.8 27
.7
29
.3
32
.1 37
.1 44
.0
52
.6
54
.5
57
.1
59
.1
52
.8 58
.8 63
.2
62
.3
60
.6
55
.5
57
.2
57
.8
60
.6 65
.4 70
.2
72
.0
79
.9
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
| FY80-89 = $83.9B |
| FY00-09 = $477.3B |
| FY90-99 = $191.2B |
($ Billions)
Total = $1,457 Billion
Source: USAspending.gov
| FY10-20 = $624.7B |
Job Change by SectorDistrict of Columbia
Dec 2019 – Dec 2020
-0.2
0.7
-1.0
0.3
-2.0
-0.8
0.2
-2.2
-3.8
-29.4
-9.6
-8.9
4.6
-35.0 -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Transp. & Util.
Construction
Information
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Financial
Other Services
Leisure & Hosp.
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Federal Govt.
(000s) Total -52.1k
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(Ranked by Size in 2019)
Job Change by SectorDistrict of Columbia
Nov 2020 – Dec 2020
0.0
0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-0.2
0.1
0.6
0.0
-0.5
-2.5
-0.4
0.1
0.0
-3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Transp. & Util.
Construction
Information
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Financial
Other Services
Leisure & Hosp.
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Federal Govt.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(000s) Total -3.2k (Ranked by Size in 2019)
Job Change by SectorSuburban Maryland
Dec 2019 – Dec 2020
-2.4
-1.7
2.5
-0.1
0.5
-2.5
-3.9
2.7
-13.3
-5.7
-13.0
-6.2
-5.8
-16.0 -14.0 -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0
Information
Wholesale Trade
Transp. & Util.
Manufacturing
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Federal Govt.
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Total: -49k
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(000s)(Ranked by Size in 2019)
Job Change by SectorSuburban Maryland
Nov 2020 – Dec 2020
-0.2
0.1
2.9
0.2
-0.1
-0.5
-1.0
0.3
-4.6
2.1
-0.8
0.5
1.1
-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Information
Wholesale Trade
Transp. & Util.
Manufacturing
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Federal Govt.
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Total: +0k
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(000s)(Ranked by Size in 2019)
Job Change by SectorNorthern Virginia
Dec 2019 – Dec 2020
1.6
-0.2
-0.7
-7.0
-5.7
-1.1
5.3
1.7
-0.4
-33.3
-10.6
-18.2
0.8
-40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Information
Transp. & Util.
Other Services
Financial
Construction
Federal Govt.
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hosp.
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Total -67.8k
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(000s)(Ranked by Size in 2019)
Job Change by SectorNorthern Virginia
Nov 2020 – Dec 2020
0.4
0.0
-0.3
1.6
0.2
-0.3
1.5
-0.8
3.5
-3.0
-6.9
0.0
0.3
-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Information
Transp. & Util.
Other Services
Financial
Construction
Federal Govt.
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hosp.
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Total -3.8k
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(000s)(Ranked by Size in 2019)
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016 Dec 2017 Dec 2018 Dec 2019 Dec 2020
Dec 2020DC 7.6US 6.7SMD 6.5MSA 5.6NVA 4.3
Unemployment Rates in the WMSABy Sub-State Area
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)
%
-13.0%
-11.0%
-9.0%
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%Washington -5.2%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional AnalysisSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Largest Job Markets Job ChangeDec 2019 – Dec 2020
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRPAnnual % Change 2008 – 2019
Washington MSA
U.S.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis , GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Chained Dollars
Long commutes diminish quality of lifeProportion of workers with travel time to work of 60 or more minutes
Source: US Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey (Table S0802)
6.2%
7.6%
8.2%
8.4%
8.4%
9.2%
9.5%
10.0%
11.2%
11.3%
14.2%
14.7%
14.7%
15.5%
19.2%
20.7%
21.1%
21.5%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Minneapolis (1,966,186)
Phoenix (2,252,077)
Denver (1,607,215)
Detroit (2,038,659)
Pittsburgh (1,130,004)
Dallas (3,791,790)
United States (154,609,443)
Philadelphia (2,709,202)
Houston (3,312,236)
Miami (2,992,970)
Seattle (2,119,472)
Atlanta (2,962,938)
Chicago (4,741,646)
Los Angeles (6,673,806)
Washington DC (3,497,447)
San Francisco (2,526,639)
New York (8,996,152)
Boston (1,274,261)
WMATA Metrorail
Average Weekday Metrorail Ridership12-month % change (2006-2019)
-24%
-20%
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Metrorail Alexandria Arlington Fairfax District ofColumbia
Maryland Virginia Linear (Metrorail)
Source: Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA); Center for Regional Analysis
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20
Percent Number
Dec 2020Total employed
149.6M
thousands
Source: Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics
Paid Employees Who Worked At Home Due To The Coronavirus Pandemic
in the United States
Nov 20 –Dec 20+2.8M
Housing Market Trends
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Feb 2011 Feb 2012 Feb 2013 Feb 2014 Feb 2015 Feb 2016 Feb 2017 Feb 2018 Feb 2019 Feb 2020
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
12-Month % Change End of Month Inventory
Dec 19 -
Dec 20
-11.6%
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Note: End of month inventory includes: (1) All Pending Listings and (2) Active Listings.
Inventories of Existing HomesWashington MSA MOTYC (2011-2020)
EOM inventory
Dec 201917,656 units
Dec 202015,615 units
2268922689
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
12-Month Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes
Washington MSA MOTYC (2000 – 2020)
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Nov-
Dec2020
-20.5%
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,0001
99
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
12-Month Moving Average
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Dec 20205,291
Existing Home SalesWashington MSA (DC Metro Region)
Jan 1999 – Dec 2020
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20
Existing Home SalesWashington MSA (DC Metro Region)
Month-Over-Year Change Feb 2011 – Dec 2020
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Dec 2019-
Dec 2020
+1,057
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: U. S. Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Washington MSA Building Permits2012-2020, Three-Month Moving Average
Dec 20202,832
permitsissued
2,3453-mo avg
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
permits inventory
Permits and InventoriesWashington MSA (2010-2020)
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data); U. S. Census Bureau
Existing Home Sales and Permits12-month moving average of MOTYC % change
Washington MSA
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
12-mo MOTYC avg permits 12-mo MOTYC avg home sales
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data); U. S. Census Bureau
Median Home Sales PriceWashington MSA
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Dec 2020$449k
12-month moving average(th
ou
san
ds
of
do
lla
rs)
Median Home Sales PriceArlington, Alexandria City, and Washington MSA
100
200
300
400
500
600
7002
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Arlington Alexandria City 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Washington MSA)
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Alexandria City)
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
(th
ou
san
ds
of
do
lla
rs)
Median Home Sales PriceArlington & Washington MSA Moving Averages (2000-2020)
150
250
350
450
550
650
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Washington MSA) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington)
(th
ou
san
ds
of
do
lla
rs)
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
575
600
625
650
675
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Arlington Fairfax Loudoun
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
(th
ou
san
ds
of
do
lla
rs)
Median Home Sales PriceArlington, Fairfax and Loudoun counties
12-month moving averages | Feb 2011 – Dec 2020
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Arlington Fairfax Loudoun
Closed Home SalesArlington, Fairfax and Loudoun counties
12-month moving averages | Jan 2009 – Dec 2020
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Clo
sed
Ho
me
Sa
les,
Act
ua
l V
alu
es
Median Sales PriceWashington MSA
Month-Over-Year % Change | Jan 2011 – Dec 2020
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Dec 2020MEDIAN
sales price$449,000
Average Sales PriceMonth-Over-Year % Change
Washington MSA
-7.5%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Dec 2020AVERAGE
sales price$545,256
Average Sales PriceMonth-Over-Year % Change
District of Columbia
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Dec 2020AVERAGE
sales price$783,815
Average Sales PriceMonth-Over-Year % Change
Suburban Maryland
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Dec 2020AVERAGE
sales price$489,621
Average Sales PriceMonth-Over-Year % Change
Northern Virginia
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Dec 2020AVERAGE
sales price$606,118
Active Listings to Closed Sales Ratio
0.3
1.3
2.3
3.3
4.3
5.3
6.3
7.3
8.3
9.3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ArlingtonFairfaxLoudounPrince WilliamDCMontgomeryPrince George’s
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Active Listings to Closed Sales RatioGreater Washington DC Area
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Dec 2020Active Listings 6,651Closed Sales 8,761Listings : Sales 0.759
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
-5.0%
-2.0%
1.0%
4.0%
7.0%
10.0%
13.0%
16.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MOTYC
Average Home Sales Price:Single Family Detached
Northern Virginia (2011-2020) (000s)
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Dec 2020$774k avg SP
+8.3% MOTYC
$315
$365
$415
$465
$515
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MOTYC
Average Home Sales Price:Single Family Attached: Townhomes
Northern Virginia (2011-2020) (000s)
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Dec 2020$508k avg SP
+5.2% MOTYC
$255
$275
$295
$315
$335
$355
$375
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MOTYC
Average Home Sales Price:Single Family Attached: Condos
Northern Virginia (2011-2020) (000s)
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Dec 2020$393k avg SP
+10.7% MOTYC
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MOTYC
Average Home Sales Price:Single Family Detached
District of Columbia (2011-2020) (000s)
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Dec 2020$1.26M avg SP
+16.5% MOTYC
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MOTYC
Average Home Sales Price:Single Family Attached: Townhomes
District of Columbia (2011-2020) (000s)
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Dec 2020$893k avg SP
+4.7% MOTYC
$400
$420
$440
$460
$480
$500
$520
$540
$560
$580
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MOTYC
Average Home Sales Price:Single Family Attached: Condos
District of Columbia (2011-2020) (000s)
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)
Dec 2020$574k avg SP1.5% MOTYC
Thank You
cra.gmu.edu
NOTICEDue to the COVID-19 Pandemic, we are suspending our Outlook for the remainder of 2020 at this time. As economic data become available and we understand better when personal and business activities can begin to move towards normal, we will update projections for national and regional economic performance.
In the meantime, please visit the CRA website for updated information on local housing market performance and other key economic data at:
https://cra.gmu.edu/covid19/
Be Well! Be Safe!
We hope to see you soon.
