Warnings and Geographic Information Systems For the National Weather Service
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Transcript of Warnings and Geographic Information Systems For the National Weather Service
Warnings and Geographic Information Systems Warnings and Geographic Information Systems For the National Weather Service For the National Weather Service
Ken WatersKen WatersRegional ScientistRegional Scientist
Pacific Region HeadquartersPacific Region HeadquartersNational Weather Service, Honolulu HINational Weather Service, Honolulu HI
July 13, 2005July 13, 2005Silver Spring, MDSilver Spring, MD
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Polygon TeamPolygon Team Created to help move the NWS from county-based warnings to Created to help move the NWS from county-based warnings to
polygon-based warningspolygon-based warnings
TEAM MEMBERS:TEAM MEMBERS:
Mike Looney, CRH (facilitator)Mike Looney, CRH (facilitator)Mike Coyne, MIC Huntsville MS Mike Coyne, MIC Huntsville MS Steve Naglic, WCM WFO Columbia SCSteve Naglic, WCM WFO Columbia SCPete Wolf, SOO WFO Jacksonville FLPete Wolf, SOO WFO Jacksonville FLJeff Lorens, WRHJeff Lorens, WRHBrent McAloney, OCWWSBrent McAloney, OCWWSDoug Young, OCWWSDoug Young, OCWWSNoreen Schwein, CRHNoreen Schwein, CRHJoe Shaffer, SPCJoe Shaffer, SPCRich Okulski, OAARich Okulski, OAAKen Waters, PRHKen Waters, PRH
Feb. 2004: Regions meet to study this issueFeb. 2004: Regions meet to study this issueMar. 2004: Meeting Information presented to MSD ChiefsMar. 2004: Meeting Information presented to MSD ChiefsApr. 2004: Gen. Johnson asks PR Regional Director Jeff Apr. 2004: Gen. Johnson asks PR Regional Director Jeff LaDouce to commission a polygon warning teamLaDouce to commission a polygon warning teamJune 2004: Meeting information presented to Ops Committee June 2004: Meeting information presented to Ops Committee June 2004: Polygon Team CharteredJune 2004: Polygon Team CharteredAug. 2004: First formal Polygon Team MeetingAug. 2004: First formal Polygon Team MeetingSep. 2004: Verification Scoring Sub-team LaunchedSep. 2004: Verification Scoring Sub-team LaunchedJan. 2005: AMS PresentationJan. 2005: AMS PresentationMar. 2005: Prototype Test StartedMar. 2005: Prototype Test StartedSep. 2005: Scheduled end of Polygon Prototype TestSep. 2005: Scheduled end of Polygon Prototype Test
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
County vs. PolygonCounty vs. Polygon
Latitude/Longitude points at the bottom of all TORs, SVRs, Latitude/Longitude points at the bottom of all TORs, SVRs, FFWs, and SMWs.FFWs, and SMWs.
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Polygon EliminatesPolygon EliminatesArea FalseArea FalseAlarmedAlarmed
Polygon AdvantagesPolygon Advantages
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Prototype TestPrototype Test
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Polygon Team ChallengesPolygon Team Challenges
Software IssuesSoftware Issues
Workload ConcernsWorkload Concerns
VerificationVerification
DisseminationDissemination
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Jackson MS Apr 5-7Jackson MS Apr 5-7“Trial by fire”“Trial by fire”
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Example: FFW issued July 10Example: FFW issued July 10thth, , 2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis)2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis)
10 counties warned in west central Alabama---results in 25 vertices due to Warngen constraining boundaries to political county boundaries!
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Example: FFW issued July 10Example: FFW issued July 10thth, , 2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis)2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis)
Using the polygon method reduces the definition to only 5 vertices, covers largely the same constituency, and allows the forecaster much more flexibility to warn for the area the hazard is expected---rather than for county boundaries.
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Another Example---Warngen Simplifying Polygon to County Boundary
Tornado warning issued for Dent Co. MO
What happens if the tornado crosses like….
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Offices Not Watching Size of Offices Not Watching Size of Pathcast in WarngenPathcast in Warngen
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Another interesting case study,Another interesting case study,May 30, 2004May 30, 2004
30/2314Z: WFO St. Louis forecaster issued tornado warning for Washington Co. IL, conforming the polygon to “more or less” the shape of the county
30/2319Z: WFO Paducah issued tornado warning for neighboring Perry Co. IL
30/2330Z: Confirmed tornado touchdown in Dubois, Washington County IL
The irony of all this?:Using polygons as issued by the WFO’s, this event was unwarned! Using legacy county verification, WFO St. Louis warned for the event.
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Now that I’ve got your attention…..
Let’s talk some about GIS and how it can relate to the National Weather Service…….
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
What is a GIS?What is a GIS?
Geographic Information Geographic Information SystemSystem
DEFINITION: An organized DEFINITION: An organized collection of computer collection of computer hardware, software, hardware, software, geographic data, and geographic data, and personnel designed to personnel designed to efficiently capture, store, efficiently capture, store, update, manipulate, analyze, update, manipulate, analyze, and display all forms of and display all forms of geographically referenced geographically referenced informationinformation
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
GIS DataGIS Data
Collection of:Collection of:• PointsPoints
Surface observationsSurface observations• LinesLines
Hurricane tracksHurricane tracks Tornado trajectoriesTornado trajectories
• PolygonsPolygons Short-fuse warnings (TOR, Short-fuse warnings (TOR,
SVR, FFW, SMW)SVR, FFW, SMW) Watches (SPC Outline)Watches (SPC Outline) Other watches/warnings Other watches/warnings
using preexisting using preexisting polygons such as county polygons such as county outlinesoutlines
• 3-dimensional objects3-dimensional objects Volumetric river basins Volumetric river basins
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
GIS Data FormatsGIS Data Formats
Most commonly used Most commonly used standard is the ESRI standard is the ESRI “shapefile”, which is widely “shapefile”, which is widely supported across industry.supported across industry.
Each shapefile (also known Each shapefile (also known as a theme or layer) is as a theme or layer) is composed of at least three composed of at least three file components which file components which describe the geographic describe the geographic (latitude/longitude) (latitude/longitude) coordinates and data coordinates and data attributes that make up attributes that make up each shapeeach shape
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
GIS SoftwareGIS Software
DesktopDesktop• ESRI ArcGISESRI ArcGIS• ESRI ArcViewESRI ArcView• MapDeskMapDesk• Public Domain: GRASSPublic Domain: GRASS
ServerServer• ESRI ArcIMSESRI ArcIMS• ESRI ArcGIS ServerESRI ArcGIS Server• Public Domain: UMinn MapserverPublic Domain: UMinn Mapserver
Non-GIS SoftwareNon-GIS Software• AWIPS (uses shapefiles)AWIPS (uses shapefiles)
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
NWS DataNWS Data
Uses formats not familiar Uses formats not familiar to GIS users:to GIS users:• WMO GRIB1 & 2WMO GRIB1 & 2
NDFD GridsNDFD Grids NCEP ModelsNCEP Models
• WMO Binary Universal WMO Binary Universal Form for the Form for the Representation (BUFR) of Representation (BUFR) of meteorological datameteorological data
Soundings etc.Soundings etc.
• Level II & Level III radarLevel II & Level III radar Unique binary format in Unique binary format in
radial format around a radial format around a single stationsingle station
ALL are already georeferenced!
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
ConvergenceConvergence
Looking for ways to merge Looking for ways to merge hydrometeorologic data with GIShydrometeorologic data with GIS
-Convert NWS data sets into Convert NWS data sets into georeferenced, GIS-friendly formatsgeoreferenced, GIS-friendly formats
-Disseminate NWS data using GIS Disseminate NWS data using GIS structure such as Internet Mapping structure such as Internet Mapping SystemsSystems
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
One Example…One Example…
Converting warning polygons into Converting warning polygons into GIS/georeferenced data filesGIS/georeferenced data files
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Archiving short-fused NWS warnings since mid-Archiving short-fused NWS warnings since mid-2003.2003.
Converting then-little-used polygons at the bottom Converting then-little-used polygons at the bottom of the warnings to GIS data sets using AWIPS and of the warnings to GIS data sets using AWIPS and freeware software toolsfreeware software tools
Interesting patterns result, especially when the warning sets are shown over time…
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Step 1: Capture the polygon Step 1: Capture the polygon pointspoints
Set up a “trigger” Set up a “trigger” mechanism in AWIPS to mechanism in AWIPS to capture all short-term capture all short-term warnings:warnings:
• TOR – tornado warningsTOR – tornado warnings• SVR – severe SVR – severe
thunderstorm warningsthunderstorm warnings• FFW – flash flood warningsFFW – flash flood warnings• SMW – special marine SMW – special marine
warningswarnings
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Step 2: Parse the warning textStep 2: Parse the warning text
Extract all the needed information:
Issue Time
UGC
Expiration Time
VTEC line
….and….of course…
…the polygon vertices
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Step 3: At scheduled intervals update Step 3: At scheduled intervals update the “flat file” databasethe “flat file” database
Using only open source (“freeware”) softwareUsing only open source (“freeware”) software• Code written in PerlCode written in Perl• Polygon values formatted in ESRI “gen” formatPolygon values formatted in ESRI “gen” format
““gen” format is common ASCII format that ESRI gen” format is common ASCII format that ESRI products can convert to/from using scriptsproducts can convert to/from using scripts
Check for new warnings each minute –and- Check for new warnings each minute –and- check for expired warnings each minute as wellcheck for expired warnings each minute as well
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Step 4: Convert “gen” format into Step 4: Convert “gen” format into standard shapefile formatstandard shapefile format
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
The long-term database can then be used in a variety of ways to provide post-analysis and to look for trends (both weather-related as well as policy-related)
Examples: • Area of polygon (warned areas)
• Verification studies (e.g. compare LSR with warnings
• Provide summaries of storm seasons
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Examples – Examples – Tornado Warnings 2004Tornado Warnings 2004
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Examples – Examples – Severe Thunderstorm Warnings 2004Severe Thunderstorm Warnings 2004
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Examples – Examples – Flash Flood Warnings in 2004Flash Flood Warnings in 2004
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Special Marine WarningsSpecial Marine Warnings
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Converting LSR Data into GIS Converting LSR Data into GIS ShapefilesShapefiles
TORNADO REPORTS Jan-Jun 2005
Note the remarkable paucity of confirmed tornado reports for 2005!
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
……in contrast to….in contrast to….One remarkable day, May 30th 2004 when severe weather broke out from Texas to Iowa to the Carolinas
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
GIS Allows Interactive Analysis Such as GIS Allows Interactive Analysis Such as Overlaying Polygon Warnings With Storm ReportsOverlaying Polygon Warnings With Storm Reports
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Converting LSR Data into GIS Converting LSR Data into GIS ShapefilesShapefiles
HAIL REPORTS Jan-Jun 2005
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Converting LSR Data into GIS Converting LSR Data into GIS ShapefilesShapefiles
WIND REPORTS Jan-Jun 2005
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Tendency to align warnings to county Tendency to align warnings to county borders continued in 2004borders continued in 2004
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Flash Flood WarningsFlash Flood Warningsthe most “county-based” of all four short-the most “county-based” of all four short-
fuse warning typesfuse warning types
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Applications For Viewing Applications For Viewing Polygon WarningsPolygon Warnings
CONUS map showing warnings, updated each CONUS map showing warnings, updated each minute: minute: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/
ArcIMS map service for historical viewing: ArcIMS map service for historical viewing: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/
Texas A&M Site (warnings + radar): Texas A&M Site (warnings + radar): http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.htmlhttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html
Iowa Mesonet:Iowa Mesonet:http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtmlhttp://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml
New NWS RIDGE Site:New NWS RIDGE Site:http://http://www.srh.noaa.govwww.srh.noaa.gov/RIDGE/RIDGE
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Busy Day….!Busy Day….! http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
ArcIMS Map ServiceArcIMS Map Servicehttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.htmlhttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Includes LSR data from SPCIncludes LSR data from SPC
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Texas A&M Mesonet SiteTexas A&M Mesonet Sitehttp://mesonet.tamu.edu/PolygonTest/http://mesonet.tamu.edu/PolygonTest/
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Iowa Environmental MesonetIowa Environmental Mesonethttp://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtmlhttp://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
New RIDGE Site (hosted on SRH New RIDGE Site (hosted on SRH server)server)Uses web technology to
“simulate” an Internet map server
Allows several different radar products (including SRM) on top of hillshaded topography, roads, counties, rivers
Includes ability to animate and zoom
…and….an overlay of the active warnings in effect at the time of the radar image
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Where do we go from here…..?Where do we go from here…..?
Look at a new type of All-Hazards radioLook at a new type of All-Hazards radio• Focusing on points in space rather than geopolitical Focusing on points in space rather than geopolitical
countiescounties• Fixed radio could be programmed with location (either Fixed radio could be programmed with location (either
latitude/longitude, or relative to major city [e.g., 20 mi latitude/longitude, or relative to major city [e.g., 20 mi NW of Houston]NW of Houston]
• Moving radios (including cell phones, PDA devices, all-Moving radios (including cell phones, PDA devices, all-hazard radios in cars, buses, trains) could be located hazard radios in cars, buses, trains) could be located using the now more commonly found GPS unitsusing the now more commonly found GPS units
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
New NOAA Radio ConceptNew NOAA Radio Concept
Warning issued for Okmulgee andMcIntosh Counties. New NWR’s use latitude/longitude (or city) rather than county/SAME code.
Residents in Checotah will not be alerted but residents in Stidham are, even though both are in McIntosh County.
GPS-enabled cell phones/cars travelling on I-40 within polygon would be alerted also.
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Where do we go from here…..?Where do we go from here…..?
Automated GIS techniquesAutomated GIS techniques• Greatly facilitate verification Greatly facilitate verification • Provide more statistics (e.g., how many people were Provide more statistics (e.g., how many people were
warned with each warning by linking to population warned with each warning by linking to population databases)databases)
• More robust web dissemination possibilities --- including More robust web dissemination possibilities --- including the ability to provide custom information based on user the ability to provide custom information based on user criteriacriteria
ONE WARNING:ONE WARNING: care must be taken to consider private care must be taken to consider private sector concerns here as some businesses are also taking sector concerns here as some businesses are also taking this roadthis road
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Private Sector OpportunitiesPrivate Sector OpportunitiesWhy not work WITH private sector. Some private sector companies are already strongly endorsing the polygon warning methods
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Why GIS….?Why GIS….?
1. Compatibility with many other public, private, and government agencies that already use GIS data for their work and analysis
2. GIS has great analysis capabilities…able to do “what if” analysis and look for trends
3. Using polygon warnings we can provide better service by highlighting where the real threat is without worrying about geopolitical boundaries
4. A BETTER SERVICE TO OUR PUBLIC!4. A BETTER SERVICE TO OUR PUBLIC!
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Questions?Questions?
My Website:My Website:• http://http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hq/regsci/giswww.srh.noaa.gov/hq/regsci/gis
Ken Waters
Regional Scientist
NWS Pacific Region
Honolulu, Hawaii
(808) 532-6413