Warn-on-Forecast: Progress and Plans
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Warn-on-Forecast:Progress and Plans
Norman Weather Forecast Office
Gabe Garfield2/23/11
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Overview Progress
• Acquired local WRF• Hired liaison to Hazardous Weather Testbed• Performed configuration tests for OUN WRF• Developed social science survey
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Overview Plans
• Run more WRF configuration tests• Use ADAS in OUN WRF• Participate in Spring Experiment
OUN WRF Survey IT support
• Conduct social science project “Call-to-action” statements
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Overview Collaborations
• CAPS Employing ADAS in the OUN WRF
• SSWIM, OCS, NSSL Social science project - evaluating “call-to-
action” statements
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The OUN WRF Computational cluster with 10 nodes
and 80 processor cores • Each core is an Intel E5620 (2.4 GHz)
InfiniBand communication link between nodes (20 Gbit/s)
WRF Version 3.1.1 Runs every hour out to 8 hours
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The OUN WRF Advanced Research WRF (ARW)
solver 3-km grid-spacing 1296 x 1296 km domain centered on
OUN
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The OUN WRF
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The OUN WRF Boundary conditions:
• 12Z WRF forecast Initial conditions:
• Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analysis
“Hot starts” through LAPS
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The OUN WRF Goals:
• Begin to use adaptable high-resolution model in operational framework
• Instruct forecasters in benefits and limitations of using high-resolution output
• Provide guidance for other NWS offices in best practices
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WRF Configuration:Sensitivity Tests
Bulk Microphysics Parameterizations (BMP)• Comparison of parameterizations• Initialization time tests
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Bulk Microphysics Parameterizations
• Snook and Xue (2007) found that tornadogenesis in their simulations depended on the microphysics parameterization.
• Dawson et al. (2007) found that double-moment schemes improve forecasts significantly for grid-spacing less than 1 km. Double-moment schemes may not provide much
advantage for coarser resolutions
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Bulk Microphysics Parameterizations
• Millbrandt and Yau (2006d) found that biggest forecast improvement is change from single to double-moment microphysics.
• Why? There are several atmospheric processes in which mixing ratio and number concentration are independent (Dawson et al. 2010) Accretion Diffusion Evaporation Sedimentation
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Microphysics 10 microphysics schemes in the WRF Investigated 8 (minus Thompson
schemes)
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Convective Cases September 15, 2010 October 10, 2010 December 31, 2010
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Convective Cases September 15, 2010 October 10, 2010 December 31, 2010
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9/15/10Composite ReflectivityStorm Reports
0000 UTC 2010-09-16
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Microphysics
Kessler Ferrier Goddard Morrison
WSM 3 WSM 5 WSM 6 WDM 5 WDM 6
0000 UTC, 9/16/10, 7-HR FORECAST
Lin
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Microphysics
Kessler Ferrier Goddard Morrison
WSM 3 WSM 5 WSM 6 WDM 5 WDM 6
0000 UTC, 9/16/10, 7-HR FORECAST
Lin
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Microphysics
Kessler Ferrier Goddard Morrison
WSM 3 WSM 5 WSM 6 WDM 5 WDM 6
0000 UTC, 9/16/10, 7-HR FORECAST
Lin
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Top Performers0000 UTC, Composite Reflectivity
0000 UTC, Lin Microphysics
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Top Performers0000 UTC, Composite Reflectivity
0000 UTC, WDM 6 Microphysics
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Poor Performer0000 UTC, Composite Reflectivity
0000 UTC, Kessler Microphysics
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9/15/10 Lin and WDM6 microphysics
performed best. Model initialized at 17 UTC
• Some studies show forecasts >6 hrs unreliable
• What initialization time is most accurate?
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Initialization SensitivityWSR-88D
2010-09-160000 UTC
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Initialization SensitivityWDM6INIT:1600
2010-09-160000 UTC
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Initialization SensitivityWDM6INIT:1700
2010-09-160000 UTC
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Initialization SensitivityWDM6INIT:1800
2010-09-160000 UTC
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Initialization SensitivityWDM6INIT:1900
2010-09-160000 UTC
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Initialization SensitivityWDM6INIT:2000
2010-09-160000 UTC
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Initialization SensitivityWDM6INIT:2100
2010-09-160000 UTC
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Initialization SensitivityWDM6INIT:2200
2010-09-160000 UTC
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Initialization SensitivityWDM6INIT:2300
2010-09-160000 UTC
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Initialization SensitivityWSR-88D
2010-09-160000 UTC
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9/15/10 Lin and WDM6 microphysics
performed best. The 2100 and 2200 UTC initialization
times produced best results. Other cases?
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Convective Cases September 15, 2010 October 10, 2010 December 31, 2010
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Convective Cases September 15, 2010 October 10, 2010 December 31, 2010
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10/10/10Composite Reflectivity
0000 UTC 10/11/10Storm Reports
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12/31/10Composite Reflectivity
0000 UTC 1/1/11Storm Reports
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Other Cases 10/10/2010
• Lin and WDM6 microphysics performed best again
12/31/2010• Best parameterization unclear
Note: Compared with 3-hr forecast for these cases.
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Model SpecificationsParameterization Scheme
Cumulus None
Microphysics WRF Double-Moment 6-species
Planetary Boundary Layer Yonsei University
Land-Surface Model NOAH
Longwave Radiation Rapid Radiative Transfer Model
Shortwave Radiation Dudhia Scheme
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OUN WRF: Data Assimilation
Currently using the Local Analysis and Prediction System for data assimilation
Investigating ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS) as replacement (ARPS 5.2.13)
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OUN WRF: Data Assimilation
ADAS• 3D-VAR analysis• Ingests data from surface obs, profilers,
RAOBS, and 25 WSR-88DS• Can run 3D-VAR analysis in 7 minutes (no
precip echoes) Testing ARPS 3D-VAR analysis in WRF
3.2• Waiting for convective cases this spring
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Spring Experiment OUN WRF
• Provide output to forecasters Survey
• Evaluate OUN WRF performance IT support
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Social Science How can we improve response to
warnings?• How do people respond to “call-to-action”
statements (CTAs)?
F4 tornado damage at Picher, Oklahoma.
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Social Science New survey to evaluate efficacy of
call-to-action statements in tornado warnings.
Compare current template to new statements based on findings in social science literature.
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Social Science Respondents will identify the CTA
statements that they consider the most life threatening, most likely to cause action, and convey the greatest certainty
Results will be analyzed and recommendations made for applications in NWS warning operations
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Questions?
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References Dawson, D.T., M. Xue, J.A. Milbrandt, M.K. Yau, and G. Zhang,
2007: Impact of multi-moment microphysics and model resolution on predicted cold pool and reflectivity intensity and structures in the Oklahoma tornadic supercell storms of 3 May 1999. 22nd Conf. on Wea. Analy. and Forecasting/18th Conf. on Num. Wea. Prediction. 10B.2
Dawson, D.T., M. Xue, J.A. Milbrandt, M. K. Yau, 2010: Comparison of evaporation and cold pool development between single-moment and multimoment bulk microphysics schemes in Idealized Simulations of Tornadic Thunderstorms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 1152–1171.
Milbrandt, J. A., and M. K. Yau, 2005: A multimoment bulk microphysics parameterization. Part II: A proposed three-moment closure and scheme description. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3065–3081.
Snook, N., and M. Xue, 2008: Effects of microphysical drop size distribution on tornadogenesis in supercell thunderstorms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L24803, doi:10.1029/2008GL035866.