Warm UPWarm UP1. 5th pd you many sit wherever you want. 7th see seating

chart on front board

2. Get out your notebooks• Number pages 1-50 ( back and front)• Page 1- name page ( name, pd, room, Ms. Price)• Page 2- Title page- ch.1 and prologue• Page 3- Syllabus• Page 4- Prologue Notes Page 5-Foldable Page 6 – Brain Teasers ( you will get them today) Page 7- chapter 1 notes Page 8- Correlation act ( will get today) Page 9- practice test

33. With a partner see how many brain teaser you . With a partner see how many brain teaser you can get correct in 15 minuetscan get correct in 15 minuets

AP Psychology: Chapter 1: AP Psychology: Chapter 1: Thinking Critically With Thinking Critically With Psychological SciencePsychological Science

Solve MESolve ME

A man is found shot to death in a A man is found shot to death in a room with a table, four chairs, and room with a table, four chairs, and 53 bicycles. Why was he 53 bicycles. Why was he murdered?murdered?

There are 52 Bicycle playing There are 52 Bicycle playing cards in a normal deck. He was cards in a normal deck. He was playing with an extra ace.playing with an extra ace.

What is critical thinking?What is critical thinking?How does it relate to How does it relate to psychology and this psychology and this course?course?

Solve MESolve ME

A man is traveling from work and A man is traveling from work and wants to go home. He will not go wants to go home. He will not go home because there is another man home because there is another man in a mask waiting there for him. What in a mask waiting there for him. What does the first man do for a living? does the first man do for a living?

The man is a runner at third base and The man is a runner at third base and he is trying to score a runhe is trying to score a run

Let’s Make A Deal!Let’s Make A Deal!

One Volunteer is One Volunteer is Needed for A Needed for A chance to win chance to win

1,334,4991,334,499 Turkish Turkish “dollars!”“dollars!”

Let’s Make A Deal Shows Us That:Let’s Make A Deal Shows Us That:Human Intuition is Human Intuition is highly limitedhighly limited..Critically thinking rarely comes easily to us!Critically thinking rarely comes easily to us!

Critical Thinking:Critical Thinking: thinking that does not thinking that does not blindly accept blindly accept arguments and conclusionsarguments and conclusionsexamines examines assumptionsassumptionsdiscerns discerns hidden valueshidden valuesevaluates evaluates evidenceevidenceAn awareness to our own An awareness to our own vulnerabilityvulnerability

Lack of IntuitionLack of Intuition

Hindsight Bias:Hindsight Bias: tendency to tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have that one would have foreseen itforeseen it. .

the “the “I-knew-it-all-alongI-knew-it-all-along” ” phenomenonphenomenon

Lack Of IntuitionLack Of IntuitionOverconfidence:Overconfidence: we tend to think we tend to think

we we know more know more than we do.than we do.We can't always trust our common We can't always trust our common

sense or intuition sense or intuition we need researchwe need research

Research StrategiesResearch StrategiesTheory Theory

an explanation using an integrated set of an explanation using an integrated set of principles that principles that organizes and predicts organizes and predicts observationsobservations

Low self esteem contributes to Low self esteem contributes to depressiondepressionHypothesis Hypothesis

a a testable predictiontestable predictionoften implied by a often implied by a theorytheoryAllows us to Allows us to test and reject test and reject or revise the theoryor revise the theoryPeople with low self esteem score higher on a People with low self esteem score higher on a

depressiondepression scale scale

Scientific MethodScientific Method

generate or refine

research and observations

lead to

hypothesis

theories

lead to

How to check our biasHow to check our bias

Operational DefinitionOperational Definitiona statement of procedures (operations) a statement of procedures (operations)

used to used to define research variablesdefine research variablesYou want to be clear enough so that the test You want to be clear enough so that the test

and observations can be and observations can be replicatedreplicatedTo give the study more credibility it is To give the study more credibility it is

usually done with usually done with different subjects different subjects in in different situationsdifferent situations

Make sure studies are Make sure studies are valid and valid and reliable reliable

Research StrategiesResearch Strategies

1. 1. Descriptive- making - making observations observations that describe behaviorthat describe behavior

2. 2. CorrelationalCorrelational- detecting - detecting relationshipsrelationships that help predict that help predict behaviorbehavior

3. 3. Experimental-Experimental-doing studies that doing studies that help help explain behaviorexplain behavior

Research Methods- DescriptiveResearch Methods- Descriptive Case StudyCase Study

an observation technique in which one an observation technique in which one person , or a small group, is person , or a small group, is studied in studied in depth depth in the hope of revealing universal in the hope of revealing universal principlesprinciples

Longitudinal-Longitudinal-Cross Sectional-Cross Sectional-Drawbacks of case study: Drawbacks of case study: individuals can individuals can

be atypical be atypical and lead to false findings.and lead to false findings.AnecdotalAnecdotal Stories Stories

Research Methods- Research Methods- Descriptive Descriptive and Correlationand Correlation

SurveySurveytechnique for ascertaining the technique for ascertaining the self-self-

reported attitudesreported attitudes or behaviors of or behaviors of peoplepeople

usually by questioning a usually by questioning a representative, random sample representative, random sample of of themthem

Components of SurveyComponents of Survey

Population:Population: all the individuals all the individuals you are you are interested in knowing something about.interested in knowing something about.

Sample:Sample: the individuals you actually the individuals you actually question.question.

Sampling should always be taken Sampling should always be taken randomlyrandomly from the population so that it is from the population so that it is representative, meaning each individual in representative, meaning each individual in the population had an the population had an equal chance of equal chance of being selected.being selected.

Drawbacks of SurveysDrawbacks of Surveys

1.) Improper 1.) Improper SamplingSampling2.) Question 2.) Question WordingWording Can Effect the results of a Can Effect the results of a

survey.survey.Ex: Should cigarette ads or pornography be Ex: Should cigarette ads or pornography be

allowed on television?allowed on television?Ex. Mississippi River- Is the Mississippi River Ex. Mississippi River- Is the Mississippi River

longer or shorter than 500 miles? How long is longer or shorter than 500 miles? How long is the Mississippi River?the Mississippi River?

Is the Mississippi River longer or shorter than Is the Mississippi River longer or shorter than 3000 miles? How long is the Mississippi River?3000 miles? How long is the Mississippi River?

Importance of Proper SamplingImportance of Proper Sampling

False Consensus Effect:False Consensus Effect: tendency tendency to oto overestimateverestimate the extent to which the extent to which others share our beliefs and others share our beliefs and behaviors.behaviors.

Overgeneralizing Overgeneralizing extreme examples extreme examples can lead you to false conclusions!can lead you to false conclusions!

Types of Research-DescriptiveTypes of Research-Descriptive

Naturalistic Observation:Naturalistic Observation: observing observing and recording behavior in and recording behavior in naturally naturally occurring occurring situations without trying to situations without trying to manipulate and control the situationmanipulate and control the situation

Drawbacks:Drawbacks: hard to identify any type hard to identify any type of causation since there is of causation since there is no no controls.controls.

Correlation ResearchCorrelation ResearchCorrelation Research:Correlation Research: research research

that looks at a relationship between that looks at a relationship between two thingstwo things. How well does one factor . How well does one factor predict the other?predict the other?

Ex: Consumption of Ice Cream and Ex: Consumption of Ice Cream and Drowning.Drowning.

Types of CorrelationsTypes of CorrelationsPositive Correlation:Positive Correlation: a relationship in a relationship in

which which increases increases in one variable leads to in one variable leads to iincreasesncreases in the other. in the other.

Ex: Amount of fat burned is positively Ex: Amount of fat burned is positively correlated with amount of sit-ups completedcorrelated with amount of sit-ups completed

Negative Correlation:Negative Correlation: a relationship in a relationship in which which increasesincreases in one variable leads to in one variable leads to decreasesdecreases in the other. in the other.

Ex: As tooth brushing goes up, tooth decay Ex: As tooth brushing goes up, tooth decay goes downgoes down

Some More Correlation Some More Correlation ExamplesExamples

Married people tend to have higher measures Married people tend to have higher measures of happiness.of happiness.

Children who watch high amounts of television Children who watch high amounts of television are more aggressive.are more aggressive.

People with low self-esteem are more likely to People with low self-esteem are more likely to be depressed.be depressed.

What meanings can we make of these examples?What meanings can we make of these examples?

Correlations ContinuedCorrelations Continued

Correlation Coefficient:Correlation Coefficient: the statistical measure the statistical measure of the extent to which two factors vary together of the extent to which two factors vary together and thus how well either factor predicts the other. and thus how well either factor predicts the other. ((number that measures strength of the number that measures strength of the correlationcorrelation).).

STRONGEST CORRELATIONS are +1 and –1. STRONGEST CORRELATIONS are +1 and –1. +1 is a +1 is a perfect positiveperfect positive correlation while –1 is a correlation while –1 is a perfect negative perfect negative correlation.correlation.

Correlations are always between –1 and +1. A Correlations are always between –1 and +1. A correlation of Zero means there is correlation of Zero means there is no no relationshiprelationship..

Correlation ScatterplotsCorrelation Scatterplots

Perfect positivecorrelation (+1.00)

No relationship (0.00) Perfect negativecorrelation (-1.00)

Correlation coefficient

Indicates directionof relationship

(positive or negative)

r = +.37

Indicates strengthof relationship(0.00 to 1.00)

R=+.37R=+.37R=-1.00R=-1.00R=+.17R=+.17R= -.08R= -.08

Correlation MeasuresCorrelation Measures ScatterplotScatterplot

a graphed cluster of dots, each of which a graphed cluster of dots, each of which represents the values of represents the values of two variablestwo variables

the slope of the points suggests the the slope of the points suggests the direction of the relationshipdirection of the relationship

the amount of scatter suggests the strength the amount of scatter suggests the strength of the correlationof the correlationlittle scatter indicates little scatter indicates high correlationhigh correlation

also called a scattergram or scatter diagramalso called a scattergram or scatter diagram

Warm UpWarm Up

1. Get out your notes 1. Get out your notes from last class and your from last class and your homeworkhomework

959085807570656055504540353025

Temperamentscores

Height in inches

Height and Temperament of 20 Men

123456789

10

11121314151617181920

80636179746962757760

64767166737063716870

75666090604242608139

48697257637530578439

SubjectHeight in

Inches Temperament SubjectHeight in

Inches Temperament

Correlation and CausationCorrelation and CausationCorrelation does not prove causationCorrelation does not prove causationEx- negative correlation between self-esteem and Ex- negative correlation between self-esteem and

depressiondepressionHeredity and brain chemistry Heredity and brain chemistry might play a rolemight play a role

Among men, length of marriage correlates positively Among men, length of marriage correlates positively with hair loss- because both are associated with a with hair loss- because both are associated with a third factor.third factor.AgeAgeCorrelation indicates the possibility of a cause and Correlation indicates the possibility of a cause and

effect relationship, but DOES NOT prove causationeffect relationship, but DOES NOT prove causation

Research Strategies

Three Possible Cause-Effect Relationships(1)

Low self-esteemDepression

(2)Depression

Low self-esteem

Low self-esteem

Depression

(3)Distressing events

or biologicalpredisposition

could cause

could cause

could cause

or

or

and

Intuition Limit #976Intuition Limit #976

Illusory Correlation:Illusory Correlation: the the perception of a relationship perception of a relationship where where none exists.none exists.

Sugar makes kids more hyperactiveSugar makes kids more hyperactiveWet hair and cold hair cause a coldWet hair and cold hair cause a coldDon’t overgeneralize extreme cases Don’t overgeneralize extreme cases

GET THE GET THE DATADATA!!!!

One last check……………..One last check……………..

You need to make sure your study is You need to make sure your study is reliable and valid.reliable and valid.

1.1. ReliabilityReliability-if your study was -if your study was replicatedreplicated would you get the same would you get the same results?results?

2.2. ValidityValidity- Does the study or - Does the study or experiment test what it is experiment test what it is designed designed to test. to test.

Summing Up Surveys, Naturalistic Summing Up Surveys, Naturalistic Observation, Case Studies, and Observation, Case Studies, and

Correlation ResearchCorrelation Research

All of these methods look to describe All of these methods look to describe the behavior not to explain it!the behavior not to explain it!

Experimental Designed research is Experimental Designed research is the only research that gets at the only research that gets at causation…NEXT TIME!causation…NEXT TIME!

Random SequencesRandom Sequences

Your chances of being dealt either of these hands is precisely the same: 1 in 2,598,960.

Warm UpWarm Up

For the following research methods list For the following research methods list one positive and one negativeone positive and one negative

1. Corelational Study1. Corelational Study2. Case Study2. Case Study3. Naturalistic Study3. Naturalistic Study4. Survey4. Survey5. Experiment 5. Experiment

Experimentation Experimentation

and and

StatisticsStatistics

Experiments Experiments

Experimentation Experimentation Experiments are the best way to isolate cause Experiments are the best way to isolate cause

and effectand effectthe investigator manipulates one or more factors the investigator manipulates one or more factors

((independent variablesindependent variables) to observe their effect ) to observe their effect on some behavior or mental process (on some behavior or mental process (the the dependent variabledependent variable) while controlling other ) while controlling other relevant factors by random assignment of relevant factors by random assignment of subjectssubjects

by random assignment of participants the by random assignment of participants the experiment controls other relevant factors.experiment controls other relevant factors.

Breast Milk ExampleBreast Milk Example

ExperimentationExperimentationResearch StrategiesResearch StrategiesDouble-blind ProcedureDouble-blind Procedure

both the subject and the research staff are ignorant (blind) both the subject and the research staff are ignorant (blind) about whether the subject has received the about whether the subject has received the treatment or a treatment or a placeboplacebo

commonly used in commonly used in drug-evaluationdrug-evaluation studies studiesPlacebo Placebo

an an inert substance or condition inert substance or condition that may be administered that may be administered instead of a presumed active agent, such as a drug, to see if it instead of a presumed active agent, such as a drug, to see if it triggers the effects believed to characterize the active agenttriggers the effects believed to characterize the active agent

Placebo Effect- Placebo Effect- the effect of the effect of positive thought and positive thought and willpowerwillpower on an experiment on an experiment

ExperimentationExperimentationResearch StrategiesResearch StrategiesExperimental ConditionExperimental Condition

The group that is The group that is exposed to the treatmentexposed to the treatment, that is, , that is, to one version of the independent variable ( real to one version of the independent variable ( real drug)drug)

Control ConditionControl ConditionThe group that contrasts with the experimental The group that contrasts with the experimental

treatment . Get the treatment . Get the placebo, or possible nothingplacebo, or possible nothingserves as a serves as a comparisoncomparison for evaluating the effect of for evaluating the effect of

the treatmentthe treatmentExample- Viagra Example- Viagra

ExperimentationExperimentationResearch StrategiesResearch Strategies

Random AssignmentRandom Assignmentassigning subjects to assigning subjects to experimental experimental

and control conditionsand control conditions by chanceby chanceminimizes pre-existing differences minimizes pre-existing differences

between those assigned to the between those assigned to the different groupsdifferent groups

Want Want similar age, attitudessimilar age, attitudes…….…….

ExperimentationExperimentationResearch StrategiesResearch Strategies Independent VariableIndependent Variable

the experimental factor that is the experimental factor that is manipulatedmanipulatedthe variable whose effect is the variable whose effect is being studiedbeing studied

Dependent VariableDependent Variable the experimental factor that may change in the experimental factor that may change in response to response to

manipulations manipulations of the independent variable of the independent variable in psychology it is usually a in psychology it is usually a behavior or mental process behavior or mental process It can vary depending on what happens during the It can vary depending on what happens during the

experiment experiment Cause/effect…… If/Then Cause/effect…… If/Then

Experimentation Experimentation Confounding Variables-Confounding Variables-

Variables that cause changes in Variables that cause changes in the the DV besides the IVDV besides the IVBreast Feeding Example Breast Feeding Example

Operational Definitions Operational Definitions Example ViagraExample Viagra

IVIV- Viagra or placebo- - Viagra or placebo- time, amounttime, amountDV- Sex- ………………………..DV- Sex- ………………………..

ExperimentationExperimentationProblems-Problems-Sometimes not feasible or ethicalSometimes not feasible or ethical

1. 1. Obtain consentObtain consent2. 2. Protect from harm Protect from harm 3. 3. ConfidentialConfidential 4. 4. Fully explain research Fully explain research after the exp.after the exp.Animals? Animals?

Results may not overgeneralize to other Results may not overgeneralize to other contexts contexts

Statistics Statistics

Describing DataDescribing Data

Researchers first need to Researchers first need to organize their dataorganize their data

Pie Chart, Bar graphPie Chart, Bar graphDescriptive Statistics-Descriptive Statistics- describe describe

the datathe data, but don’t focus or the , but don’t focus or the relationshiprelationship

Our Brand Brand BrandBrand X Y Z

100%

99

98

97

96

95

Percentagestill functioningafter 10 years

Brand of truck

Our Brand Brand Brand Brand X Y Z

100%

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Percentagestill functioningafter 10 years

Brand of truck

Measure of Central TendencyMeasure of Central Tendency3 measures of 3 measures of Central TendencyCentral Tendency- Mode , - Mode ,

Mean and Median Mean and Median ModeMode- the - the most frequently most frequently occurring scoreoccurring scoreMean-Mean- averageaverageMedianMedian- the - the middle scoremiddle score, when you arrange , when you arrange

the score in order from the highest to lowestthe score in order from the highest to lowestBe Careful- can a Be Careful- can a few extreme score few extreme score through off any through off any

one of the central tendencies?one of the central tendencies?What's wrong with- income for 62% is below averageWhat's wrong with- income for 62% is below average

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 90 475 710

70

Mode Median Mean

One Family Income per family in thousands of dollars

Measures of Variation Measures of Variation

Need to know the variation in the Need to know the variation in the data, how data, how diverse or similar diverse or similar the the scores arescores are

RangeRange– the – the gap gap between the between the highest and lowest scorehighest and lowest score

Remember extremes scores can Remember extremes scores can skew the dataskew the data

475,000 and 710,000475,000 and 710,000

Find the mean, median, mode Find the mean, median, mode and rangeand range

1, 4, 14, 10, 4, 9, 5, 16, 2,1, 4, 14, 10, 4, 9, 5, 16, 2,

7, 4, 11, 13, 97, 4, 11, 13, 9

Measures of VariationMeasures of Variation

The more useful measure is The more useful measure is Standard Deviation Standard Deviation It gauges if scores are It gauges if scores are packed packed

together or dispersed together or dispersed Uses info from each Uses info from each scorescore Smaller Standard Deviation for more Smaller Standard Deviation for more

similar populationssimilar populationsHigher Standard Deviation for more Higher Standard Deviation for more

diverse populationsdiverse populations

Standard deviation is the square root of variance

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b3/Skewness_Statistics.svg

When is an Observed Difference When is an Observed Difference Reliable?Reliable?

1. 1. Representative samples Representative samples are better are better than biased samplesthan biased samples

2. Less variable observations are 2. Less variable observations are more reliable more reliable than those that are than those that are more variablemore variable

Consistency Consistency 3. 3. More Cases More Cases Are better than fewAre better than few

When is Difference Significant?When is Difference Significant?statistical significance (p)statistical significance (p) is a measure of the is a measure of the

likelihood that the difference between groups results likelihood that the difference between groups results from a real difference between the 2 groups rather from a real difference between the 2 groups rather than from chancethan from chance

If statistically significant …..If statistically significant …..the differences are the differences are probably not due to chanceprobably not due to chance

Statistical significance indicates the likelihood that a Statistical significance indicates the likelihood that a result will happen by chance. It does not indicate the result will happen by chance. It does not indicate the importance of the resultimportance of the result

The lower the P value, the less likely the results are The lower the P value, the less likely the results are due to due to chancechance (P<.o1) (P<.o1)

Ethics Ethics