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Transcript of Want Big Fish? Fish Where the Big Fish Swim Updated 20 Big Fish? Fish Where the Big Fish...

  • A Light for My Path.Psalms 119:105b

    Want Big Fish?

    Fish Where the Big Fish SwimUpdated

    2016

    The art of Technical Analysis, for it is an art,

    is to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage and then ride that trend

    until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed.

    Martin Pring

    Clarify, Simplify & Multiply

  • Disclaimer

    U.S. Government Required Disclaimer Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures

    and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware

    of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets.

    Dont trade with money you cant afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to

    Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to

    achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this training. The past performance of any

    trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

    CFTC RULE 4.41 HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN

    LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT

    REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE

    RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN

    MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN

    GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

    HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY

    TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

    All Materials presented are for training purposes only . Traders should paper trade any new method

    prior to risk of personal capital.

    Copyright 2007-2017

  • Copyright 2007-2017

    Dennis W. Wilborn, Sr., P.E.

    dww@activetrendtrading.com

    Founder & Lead Technical Analysis at Active Trend Trading

    http://activetrendtrading.com/

    Organizer Bay Area Money Makers

    Host: How to Make Money Trading StocksMarket

    Stock Talk

    Featured Guest IBD Radio Show

    Trader since 1988

    IBD student since about 1993

    Affiliate with Market Technician Assc.

    Certified Candlestick Technician

    Presenter Golden Gate University on Technical

    Analysis

    Past Forbes Contributor

    mailto:dww@activetrendtrading.comhttp://activetrendtrading.com/

  • Where to go for Big Fish?

    Fish Where the Big Fish Swim! But, Where is that?

    Copyright 2007-2017

  • Where is that?

    What Lake? But this isnt the total answer!

    - If you fish in the right lake but fish from the dock your results will be

    based on luck!

    What side of the Lake? Refining the search!

    What Cove? Refining the search!

    What time of year? Refining the search!

    What time of Day? Refining the search!

    So the fisherman does his homework and does everything

    rightthere is still no guarantee he will catch fish!

    Copyright 2007-2017

    Where to go for Big Fish?

  • Where to go for Big Stocks?

    Where do the Big Stock Swim?

    Whats the Lake? IBD

    Which side of Lake? IBD Special List

    What Cove? IBD 50

    What time of year/day? Big Picture & Market Pulse & Current Outlook

    Copyright 2007-2017

  • In 2010 I began tracking the initial IBD 100 of 2010 to assess its strength as

    a stock picking system. Did this list really point traders and investors to the

    Trophy sized Stocks?

    The results were pretty remarkable even if one had only tracked and traded

    the original list for the year.

    Results for the Top 10 stocks from that list

    Copyright 2007-2017

    Where to go for Big Stocks?

  • Impressive One Year ResultsBut what about other years?

    Thus the journey began!

    Went to my beginning list from 2009! Great results!

    In 2011 the IBD 100 was converted to the IBD 50 to provide a more focused

    list. If one would have taken the first list from this year was there enough

    movement in the price action to support a profitably Trend Following

    Strategy? Great Results!

    Went to the IBD Archives for 2007 & 2008: Great Results!

    Five years worth of datawith each year leading to Great Results!

    Added each year through 2016Great Results!

    I think there may be a trend here!

    Copyright 2007-2017

    Where to go for Big Stocks?

  • Results 2007 Low to High Range

    Trades would have required patience and diligence

    Copyright 2007-2017

  • Results 2008 Bear Market: Low to High Range

    Low Priced Stocks would not have bought

    But Wait, Theres More!

    Copyright 2007-2017

  • Results 2008 Beginning of Year to Pre-Low High

    First Clue of the Cyclic Nature Of the IBD 50/100Copyright 2007-2017

  • Distractor Say Youre Cherry Picking! My response, Really?

    What does the study show? Using the S&P as the benchmark how many

    stocks on the list beat the S&P in the tradable rally from High to Low?

    Where to go for Big Stocks?Cherry Picking?

    Copyright 2007-2017

  • 2009 Lowest % of Stocks beating S&P

    2016 S&P Gain for the Year 9.54%

    Where to go for Big Stocks?Cherry Picking?

  • What about 2016?

    Copyright 2007-2017

  • What about 2016?

    Copyright 2007-2017

  • What about 2016?

    Copyright 2007-2017

  • What about 2016?

    Copyright 2007-2017

  • What to Expect for 2017

    Copyright 2007-2017

    Based on 10 years of tracking

    1. Similar pattern of IBD 50 stocks outperforming the

    Indexes

    2. A significant number of stocks with high double digit

    moves to the upside & downside

    Be prepared to meet the opportunities when they appear

  • What else is on the Radar

    Copyright 2007-2017

    While the IBD 50 provides an excellent place to find big

    winners, what about when the fish arent biting?

    - In 2016 we added a premium stable of leveraged ETFs to

    take advantage of Seasonality in things like Gold, Oil,

    Financials and BioTech

    - The Next Video will provide additional information about

    how these help round what we trade at Active Trend

    Trading

    Watch for the notification of our next video about the Active

    Trend Trading System to be released early in 2017.

  • Bonus Slides

    Copyright 2007-2017

    Running List and Prep Mechanics

  • Want Big Stocks?Prep

    Copyright 2007-2017

    170 stocks to review is too many..

    50 stocks to review is to many..

    My routine to hone down the list to my Action List

    1. Simple Sort for the Best of the Best

    2. Review IBD 50 Thumbnails Tuesday & Saturday

    3. Sort the Running List Weekly based on my Entries

    requirement

    4. Sort my Action List Daily (This list change very seldom)

    At each step the best stocks float to the surface

  • Want Big Stocks?Prep

    Copyright 2007-2017

    The Sort

    1. Download IBD 50 Twice per week

    2. Set up sort based on Lee Tanners Criteria

    Comp Rating 90-95

    EPS 90-95

    RS Rating 90-95

    Up/Down Volume 0.90

    Annual Earnings Growth 25%

    Quarterly Earnings Growth 25%

    Quarterly Sales Growth 20%

    ROE 17%

    PTM 18%

    ROE + PTM 30%

    Go to the IBD site

  • Want Big Stocks?Prep

    Copyright 2007-2017

    Honing the List Down:

    Once a Week Review

  • Want Big Stocks?Prep

    Copyright 2007-2017

    Once a week review

  • Want Big Stocks?Prep

    Copyright 2007-2017

    Also Check:

    1. Sector Leaders

    2. Stock Analysis

    3. IPOs

    4. Big Cap 20

    5. High Demand Stocks page B12

  • Want Big Stocks?Prep

    Copyright 2007-2017

    Weekly Sort of Running List - 170 stock to 10 in less than a second

    - Similar sort on IBD 50 after swapping the Outs & Ins

    - Now What?

  • Want Big Stocks?Prep

    Copyright 2007-2017

    Do the stocks meet my criteria for:

    - Volume Profile

    - Pattern Profile

    - Option Availability

    I continue to tighten the requirements on the Big List until just

    a few of the best remain!

    I now have a list that I can trade with no concern for

    - Fundamentals

    - Volume

    - Other Variables

    I can now focus just on Active Trend Trading Criteria and

    building a portfolio of great growth stocks..

  • Want Big Stocks?Prep

    Copyright 2007-2017

    The Action List : My Search Is Done

    - Daily sort of Action List

    -This List Does Not Change much during the year

    I know that between this list and Index Leveraged

    ETFs there are several 100% winners

    Patience & Trust in a Winning System

  • Index Seasonality

    Monday Effect

    Days of the Month

    Note: January Effect, Summer Effect

    and End of Year EffectMonthly

  • Index SeasonalityHow to Use It

    Note: January Effect, Summer Effect

    and End of Year EffectMonthly

    Sell in May and Go Away? No

    The IBD 50 and Running List follow a pattern similar to the Indexes

    1. Peak in Jan-Feb

    2. Feb-April: Pull back to yearly low

    3. May-Aug: Put in the Yearly High

    4. Sept-Oct: Pullback

    5. Oct-Dec: End of Year Run

    The next BAMM Webinar will cover Seasonality of Commodities,

    Financials & Biotech