Wall chart for Latin American Countries Mauricio Holz UN-CELADE/ECLAC.

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Wall chart for Latin Wall chart for Latin American Countries American Countries Mauricio Holz Mauricio Holz UN-CELADE/ECLAC UN-CELADE/ECLAC

Transcript of Wall chart for Latin American Countries Mauricio Holz UN-CELADE/ECLAC.

Wall chart for Latin American Wall chart for Latin American CountriesCountries

Mauricio HolzMauricio HolzUN-CELADE/ECLACUN-CELADE/ECLAC

Will be the best Wall chart in the Will be the best Wall chart in the history of Wall charts!history of Wall charts!

(The first Wall chart in human history)(The first Wall chart in human history)Altamira cave, prehistoric Anonymous manAltamira cave, prehistoric Anonymous man

StructureStructure

Two kinds of informationTwo kinds of information

– Demographic and Economic measures for 30 Demographic and Economic measures for 30 Latin American and Caribbean CountriesLatin American and Caribbean Countries

– Comparison between NTA Latin American Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries and other NTA regions using National Countries and other NTA regions using National Transfers Accounts. Transfers Accounts.

Demographic and economic measures for Demographic and economic measures for 30 Latin American and Caribbean Countries30 Latin American and Caribbean Countries

Life Expectancy, TFR, percentage of population Life Expectancy, TFR, percentage of population 65+ and below 15, in 2010 and 2040 65+ and below 15, in 2010 and 2040

Year in which old consumption is higher relative to Year in which old consumption is higher relative to young consumption.young consumption.

Intergenerational (Tax) Reallocation Rate for Intergenerational (Tax) Reallocation Rate for young dependency group and for old dependency young dependency group and for old dependency group.group.

Five statistics of the first Demographic Dividend.Five statistics of the first Demographic Dividend. Economic dependency measures by social Economic dependency measures by social

sectors.sectors.

Percentage of population 65+.Percentage of population 65+.2010 and 20402010 and 2040

Year in which old consumption is higher Year in which old consumption is higher

compare to young consumptioncompare to young consumption..

CUBA

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

Su

pp

ort

Rati

o

HONDURAS

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

Using support ratios we calculated the year in Using support ratios we calculated the year in which 65+ relative effective consumers are which 65+ relative effective consumers are higher than <15 relative effective consumers for higher than <15 relative effective consumers for 30 LAC30 LAC

2006 2049

Intergenerational (Tax) Reallocation Intergenerational (Tax) Reallocation RateRate

0,0%5,0%

10,0%15,0%20,0%25,0%30,0%35,0%40,0%45,0%50,0% Old IRR 2010

Youth IRR 2010

Is the sum of the LCD of the dependency age group of Is the sum of the LCD of the dependency age group of young people as fraction of GDP, plus the LCD of the young people as fraction of GDP, plus the LCD of the dependency age group of old people as a fraction of dependency age group of old people as a fraction of GDPGDP

ITR and AgeingITR and AgeingCross sectional data

Comparison Between ITR and AgeingLatin American Countries

Argentina

Bahamas

Barbados

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Costa Rica

Cuba

Dominican Republic

El Salvador

Ecuador

MexicoPanama

Paraguay

Peru

UruguayVenezuela

GrenadaJ amaica

Saint Lucia

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Trinidad and Tobago

Guyana

Suriname

20,0%

22,0%

24,0%

26,0%

28,0%

30,0%

32,0%

34,0%

36,0%

38,0%

40,0%

0,15 0,25 0,35 0,45 0,55 0,65 0,75

Elderly relative to Youth

ITR

%

GD

P

ITR and AgeingITR and AgeingCross sectional dataCross sectional data

Cross sectional data seems to replicate the demographic Cross sectional data seems to replicate the demographic dividend pattern of one country.dividend pattern of one country.

– A sign of Heterogeneity in the ageing process between LAC. A sign of Heterogeneity in the ageing process between LAC. (Different stages in the process)(Different stages in the process)

– How much of this cross sectional data can be explained by How much of this cross sectional data can be explained by demographic factors and by the LCD per-capita ages demographic factors and by the LCD per-capita ages profiles?profiles?

- How this graph will change when we include the NTA data How this graph will change when we include the NTA data for other Latin American countries. Maybe not much?for other Latin American countries. Maybe not much?

- Is there some causality between the ageing process and the Is there some causality between the ageing process and the per-capita age profiles of LCD?per-capita age profiles of LCD?

Statistics of the first demographic Statistics of the first demographic dividenddividend

Min: The lowest value of the support ratio during the Min: The lowest value of the support ratio during the demographic dividend.demographic dividend.

Year of Min: The year when the SR reach is lowest value. Year of Min: The year when the SR reach is lowest value. Represent the starting point of the first demographic Represent the starting point of the first demographic dividend.dividend.

Max: The highest value of the support ratio during the Max: The highest value of the support ratio during the demographic dividend.demographic dividend.

Year of Max: The year when the SR reach is highest value. Year of Max: The year when the SR reach is highest value. Represent the ending point of the first demographic Represent the ending point of the first demographic dividend.dividend.

Duration of the demographic bond: The number of years Duration of the demographic bond: The number of years between the lowest value and the highest value.between the lowest value and the highest value.

Economic dependency measure by Economic dependency measure by social sectors, Health (Miller, Mason social sectors, Health (Miller, Mason

and Holz).and Holz). Country Aggregate

Spending (% GDP)

BenefitGenerosity

Ratio(% of GDP per working-age adult)

Dependency Ratio(% of

working-age population)

Cuba 7.4 66 11

Colombia 6.2 62 10

Costa Rica 5.9 83 7

Argentina 4.5 32 14

Nicaragua 3.4 33 10

Uruguay 3.4 20 17

Brazil 3.1 28 11

Mexico 3.0 35 9

Chile 2.8 31 9

Peru 1.5 15 10

Median, Latin America 3.4 34 10

Mean, Latin America 4.1 38 11

Mean, OECD 6.9 46 15

Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries and Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries and

other NTA regions using NTA data.other NTA regions using NTA data.

Support RatioSupport Ratio Old consumption (65+) relative to young Old consumption (65+) relative to young

(<15) consumption(<15) consumption Old consumption (LCD age group) relative Old consumption (LCD age group) relative

to young consumption (LCD age group)to young consumption (LCD age group) Young age group of dependencyYoung age group of dependency Old age group of dependencyOld age group of dependency

Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries and Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries and

other NTA regions using NTA data.other NTA regions using NTA data.

0,00% 10,00% 20,00% 30,00% 40,00% 50,00% 60,00% 70,00%

Education

Health

Pesnions

Other in Kind

Uruguay

Mexico

Costa Rica

Chile

Brazil

Distribution of public transfers in young age dependent group between:Distribution of public transfers in young age dependent group between:

– EducationEducation

– HealthHealth

– PensionsPensions

– Other in KindOther in Kind

0,00% 10,00% 20,00% 30,00% 40,00% 50,00% 60,00% 70,00% 80,00% 90,00%

Education

Health

Pesnions

Other

URUGUAY

MEXICO

COSTA RICA

CHILE

BRAZIL

Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries and Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries and

other NTA regions using NTA data.other NTA regions using NTA data. Distribution of public transfers in old age dependent group between:Distribution of public transfers in old age dependent group between:

– EducationEducation

– HealthHealth

– PensionsPensions

– Other in KindOther in Kind

Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries and Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries and

other NTA regions using NTA data.other NTA regions using NTA data.

Intergenerational Reallocation Rate for young Intergenerational Reallocation Rate for young dependents, disaggregated in:dependents, disaggregated in:

-10,00%

-5,00%

0,00%

5,00%

10,00%

15,00%

20,00%

25,00%

Public Transfers Private Transfers Asset Based Reallocation

CHILE

COSTA RICA

MEXICO

URUGUAY

Intergenerational Reallocation Rate for old Intergenerational Reallocation Rate for old dependents, disaggregated in:dependents, disaggregated in:

-6,00%

-4,00%

-2,00%

0,00%

2,00%

4,00%

6,00%

8,00%

10,00%

Public Transfers Private Transfers Asset BasedReallocations

Chile

Costa Rica

Mexico

Uruguay

Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries and Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries and

other NTA regions using NTA data.other NTA regions using NTA data.

Average Life Cycle Deficit for Latin Average Life Cycle Deficit for Latin American CountriesAmerican Countries

Life Cycle Deficit Latin American CountriesAverage of 5 selected countries

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

Age

Rel

ativ

e to

Ave

rage

La

bor

Inco

me

(30-

49)

Labor Income

Consumption

Average Finance of Consumption Average Finance of Consumption for LACfor LAC

Finance of Consumption of Latin American Countries

Average of 5 selected countries

0%

99%

20%81%

-20% -7%

26%

-14%

47%

-8%

35%40%

-80%

-40%

0%

40%

80%

120%

160%

0-14 15-64 65 y más

Age

Asset Based Reallocations

Public Transfers

Private Transfers

Labor Income

Average Intergenerational Average Intergenerational Reallocation RateReallocation Rate

Intergenerational Reallocation Rate for Latin American Countries

Average of 5 selected countries

3,77% 3,55% 7,32%

18,38%

-3,08%

15,30%

-0,21%

6,70%

6,49%

-5,00%0,00%5,00%

10,00%15,00%20,00%25,00%30,00%35,00%

Young DependencyGroup

Old DependencyGroup

All DependencyGroups

Per

cen

tag

e o

f G

DP

ABR

TF

TG

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