WALGREEN CO. Brandon Lee Minghui Li Jeremy Smith April 29, 2008.

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WALGREEN CO. Brandon Lee Minghui Li Jeremy Smith April 29, 2008

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Company Overview Walgreen company operate retail drug store chains that are engaged in the retail sale of prescription drugs, non-prescription drugs, and general merchandise. In 2008, it opened 536 net new stores for a total of 5997 Walgreens in 48 states and in Puerto Rico. It is the fastest growing retailers in the US, and is the leader in the chain drugstores. Ranked 44 th on the Fortune 500 list of the largest US-based companies. On the list of Fortune’s magazine’s Most Admired Companies in America for the last 14 consecutive years.

Transcript of WALGREEN CO. Brandon Lee Minghui Li Jeremy Smith April 29, 2008.

Page 1: WALGREEN CO. Brandon Lee Minghui Li Jeremy Smith April 29, 2008.

WALGREEN CO.Brandon LeeMinghui LiJeremy Smith

April 29, 2008

Page 2: WALGREEN CO. Brandon Lee Minghui Li Jeremy Smith April 29, 2008.

Agenda

Company Overview

Industry and Economic Analysis

Valuation

Recommendation

Q & A

Page 3: WALGREEN CO. Brandon Lee Minghui Li Jeremy Smith April 29, 2008.

Company Overview Walgreen company operate retail drug store chains that are

engaged in the retail sale of prescription drugs, non-prescription drugs, and general merchandise.

In 2008, it opened 536 net new stores for a total of 5997 Walgreens in 48 states and in Puerto Rico.

It is the fastest growing retailers in the US, and is the leader in the chain drugstores.

Ranked 44th on the Fortune 500 list of the largest US-based companies.

On the list of Fortune’s magazine’s Most Admired Companies in America for the last 14 consecutive years.

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Business

Drugstores

Prescription drugs

NonprescriptionDrugs

General merchandise

Take careHealthclinics

Home infusionTherapy provider

Specialty pharmacy

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Product class

2007 2006 2005 2004

Prescription 65% 64% 64% 63%Non-prescription 10% 11% 11% 12%

General Merchandise 25% 25% 25% 25%

Prescription sales continue to become a larger portion of the company’s business. Aging population Introduction of lower priced generics Continued development of innovative drugs

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Growth Strategy

Stores

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Stores

Opening new stores Walgreen expected to operate more than 7000 stores in 2010

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Growth Strategy

Acquisitions provide a unique opportunity and strategic fit for Walgreen business.

Fiscal 2007: 100% of the outstanding shares of Option Care, Inc. and affiliated

companies Positioned Walgreen as the nation’s largest home infusion therapy

provider and the fourth largest specialty pharmacy provider. 100% ownership of Take Care Health System, Inc and LLC, a

convenient care clinic operator Selected assets of Familymeds Group, Inc. Remaining minority interest of SeniorMed LLC.

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Growth Strategy

Investment in technology and customer service initiatives

Revenue (from 1998 to 2007) $Mil Fiscal year-end: 8

                                          

                            

Page 9: WALGREEN CO. Brandon Lee Minghui Li Jeremy Smith April 29, 2008.

Fundamental Multiples

P/E ratio kept declining stably with the increases in sales. Underlying story remains unchanged. Investors reconsidered the intrinsic value and the risk in the

business of Walgreen.

Page 10: WALGREEN CO. Brandon Lee Minghui Li Jeremy Smith April 29, 2008.

Walgreen Outlook Advantages:

Good reputation: Walgreen is a quality name. Convenience of locations: Walgreen stores usually

position on high traffic corners, and around large residential locations.

High market share translating into scale benefits. Pricing advantage results from scale and high volume. Aging population

Risk factors: Peaking generic drug cycle: It is anticipated that there

are no major generic drug introductions in 2008. Store saturation Competition from CVS/Caremark

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Major Financial Activities Stock repurchase program:

• 2007 repurchased program: up to $1billion of the company’s common stock, expiration date on January 10,2011.

• 2004 repurchased program: completely executed in three years

• During fiscal 2007, the company purchased $344.9million of shares related to the 2007 repurchased program, 343.2 million of shares related to the 2004 repurchased program

Short-term borrowings: In the fiscal 2007, the company issued commercial paper to support working capital needs.

Credit ratings as of August 31, 2008:

Rating Agency Long-term debt ratings Commercial paper rating

Moody's Aa3 P-1

S&P A+ A-1

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Industry Overview Retail (Drugs) Industry

Highly competitive Saturated market Companies looking to enhance retail channels through online

and mail order sales Rx sales $259.36 Bln in 07’ vs. $250.64 Bln in 06’

Main Competitors: CVS Caremark, Medco, Rite Aid

Industry Business Segments: “Prescription drugs, proprietary drugs, and non-prescription

medicines, and which may also carry a number of related lines, such as cosmetics, toiletries, tobacco, and novelty merchandise”

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Industry Performance

Walgreens, Co. (2007, Oct 26) Retrieved April 26, 2008, from SEC.gov

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1 Yr. Stock Performance

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WAG&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=CVS,MHS,RAD,%5EDJI; Accessed: April 25, 2008.

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Macroeconomic Overview

Credit Crunch Since late 2007, economic slowdown in response to

housing woes Tougher for companies to access cheap debt

Slowed Growth in GDP Decline in Consumer Confidence

Provides insight to market direction @ a 5 year low (March 2003, 61.4)

Page 16: WALGREEN CO. Brandon Lee Minghui Li Jeremy Smith April 29, 2008.

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/consumerConfidence.cfm

Decline in Consumer Confidence Provides insight to

market direction @ a 5 year low

(March 2003, 61.4)

Macroeconomic Overview

Page 17: WALGREEN CO. Brandon Lee Minghui Li Jeremy Smith April 29, 2008.

Macroeconomic Factors Rapid growth in price of Oil High prices have a negative impact on the economy

Costs to the businesses increase

http://quote.com/us/futures/chart.action?s=CL+M8&chartUi.period=M&chartUi.bardensity=LOW&chartUi.bartype=AREA&chartUi.size=620x300&chartUi.minutes=; Accessed: April 1, 2008.

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RCMP Position:

Purchased 1000 shares of WAG on October 6th, 1999 for $25.00/share.

On September 20th, 2006, sold 500 shares @ $49.94/share for a realized gain of $12,470.

Currently own 500 shares of WAG, trading at $35.48 as of April 28, 2008 for an unrealized gain of $5,240 or 41.92%.

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RCMP PortfolioRCMP Portfolio (4/28/2008)

Cash, 43.47%

AEE, 5.10%AEO, 7.58%CPRT, 8.14%

DO, 3.68%

FR, 8.84%

JKHY, 2.94%

KMB, 5.38%

SRCL, 6.07%

WAG, 4.98%

WFR, 3.83%

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Correlation:

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Operating Leases:

Operating leases are not reflected as assets or liabilities on the balance sheet. Does not reflect the cumulative economic liability

for all future lease payments Results:

Reduce the likelihood of a debt covenant violation Increase ability to obtain future additional loans Improve financial ratios like debt-to-equity ratio

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Lease Obligations:

Walgreens owns 19.1% of its stores, leasing the remaining 80.9%.

Present value of lease obligations is $14.219 billion Can be viewed as debt

Should consider the risk of this these lease obligations

Page 23: WALGREEN CO. Brandon Lee Minghui Li Jeremy Smith April 29, 2008.

DCF Assumptions: WACC Calculation:

Weight of Equity: 100% Weight of Debt: 0% Rf = 4.05% Beta = .75 (taken from March 2008 Value Line) ke = 8.55% Long Term Growth Rate = 4.00%WACC = 8.55%DCF Value = $35.19DCF Range = $31.67 – $38.71

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Comparables:

Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=WAG; Accessed: April 28, 2008

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Recommendation:

HOLD existing 500 shares of WAGConsistently beating Wall Street expectationsContinues to open new stores at 8% rate per

year