www.wakegov.com

Wake County Planning Board

Demographic Trends 2014

Presentation Sequence

I. Population II. Housing & Development III. Economy IV. Education

www.wakegov.com

#2 Largest Municipal Population in NC (2012): 748,078 people within city limits*

Mecklenburg

Wake

Wake County is now the 46th largest county in the US, surpassing Westchester, NY

and Milwaukee County, WI in 2013

Source: *NC Demographics 2012; **US Census Bureau 2012

#7 Fastest Growing County in US with population more than 500,000**

#46 Most Populous County in US (#85 in 2000)**

#1 Largest Population Growth in NC since 2010: 44,150*

NC Largest Municipalities* #2 City of Raleigh #7 Town of Cary #22 Town of Apex #28 Town of Wake Forest

7.8% Growth

8.1% Growth

www.wakegov.com Source: NC Demographics Population Projection 2013

www.wakegov.com

July 1, 2013 Census Estimates- Highlights

2/3rds of the state population growth occurred in the 12 counties that

make up the Charlotte and Triangle regions

Mecklenburg and Wake counties each have gained over 70,000 since

April 1, 2010, accounting for 45% of the state’s growth

Only 3 rural counties have grown in the past three years (Duplin,

Sampson, Swain)

50% of North Carolina counties had fewer people in 2013 than in 2010.

Mecklenburg and Wake Counties will both surpass 1 million

populations by 2015.

800,000

850,000

900,000

950,000

1,000,000

1,050,000

1,100,000

2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019*

900,9

93

923,6

77

945,1

43

965,8

33

986,6

92

1,0

07,5

51

1,0

28,4

10

1,0

49,2

71

1,0

70,1

30

1,0

90,9

88

NC State Demographer: Wake Population will reach 1 million in 2015

Source: NC State Demographer Population Projection 2013

www.wakegov.com

Municipal Population Growth: roughly 57% of growth comes from Raleigh and Cary

Municipality April 1,

2010 July 1, 2012 Growth % Growth

Angier* 103 106 3 .03% Apex 37,476 40,420 2,944 7.8% Cary* 133,812 144,184 10,372 7.8% Fuquay-Varina 17,937 19,929 1,992 11.1% Garner 25,745 26,732 987 3.8% Holly Springs 24,661 26,865 2,204 8.9% Knightdale 11,401 12,724 1,323 11.6% Morrisville 18,576 20,591 2,015 10.8% Raleigh* 402,825 422,078 19,253 4.8% Rolesville 3,786 4,263 477 12.6% Wake Forest* 29,218 31,991 2,773 9.5% Wendell 5,845 6,155 310 5.3% Zebulon* 4,433 4,610 177 4.0% Unincorporated 185,175 191,503 6,505 3.5% Wake County 900,993 952,151 51,158 5.7%

Source: US Census Bureau. Municipal Population Counts. 2010 Census & 2012 Census Estimate

*Total population counts do not include residents who lived within the parts of those municipalities that extended into other counties on April 1, 2010.

Example Indicator #1

www.wakegov.com

755

1,079 1,140

Wake County Population Density

2000 2010 2012 Monitoring changes in population densities provides an opportunity to measure how land is being utilized in urban, suburban and rural areas

Population Density Total population per square mile of land area

Wake County Data Trends

Population Density

www.wakegov.com

Persons Per Square Mile: 2012

3 Most Densely Populated

1. Raleigh 2,939

2. Cary 2,695

3. Apex 2,534

County Overall 1,140

Unincorporated 357

3 Least Densely Populated

10. Wendell 1,183

11. Zebulon 1,114

12. Rolesville 1,068

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: 2012 Population Estimates. Incorporated Places and Minor Civil Divisions Datasets: Subcounty Resident Population Estimates: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2012. Released May 23, 2013. N.C. Demographics Unit. Municipal Growth, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2012. Land Area.Last updated 17SEP2013.

www.wakegov.com

8,581 9,114 9,281 9,458

8,860 8,427 8,184

7,606

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Natu

ral In

cre

ase

24.3

p

eo

ple

per

day

23.5

peo

ple

per

day

24.9

p

eo

ple

per

day

25.4

p

eo

ple

per

day

25.9

peo

ple

per

day

22

.4

peo

ple

per

day

23.0

p

eo

ple

per

day

20

.8

peo

ple

per

day

Natural Increase 2005-2012 Births have declined since 2009 impacting natural increase

Source: NC State Center for Health Statistics

www.wakegov.com

Wake County’s Population Continues to Diversify: 2000 to 2012

* U. S. Census Bureau 2000 & 2012 American Community Survey 1 – Year Estimate

70.2%

61.6%

19.6% 19.4%

3.8 5.8 5.4

10

1.0 3.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2012

White

African-American

Asian

Hispanic

Other

Example Indicator #2

www.wakegov.com

Higher age dependency ratios reflect the predominance of youth and/or seniors in an area who may rely on help from others for basic needs and services: such as housing, food, healthcare, clothing, and transportation.

Age Dependency Ratio The combined population age under 18 years and 65 years and over divided by the population age 18-64 multiplied by 100

Wake County Data Trends

30.9%

32.5%

34.5%

Wake County Percent of Youth & Seniors

2000 1990 2010

www.wakegov.com

Wake County Data Trends

Median Age: 2008-2012

3 Youngest Places

1. Knightdale 30.8

2. Raleigh 32.0

3. Morrisville 33.4

County Overall 34.5

3 Most Senior Places

10. Garner 37.2

11. Wendell 40.2

12. Zebulon 43.3

www.wakegov.com

1990 Census 16,545

2000 Census 60,602

2012 ACS * 122,357

* U. S. Census Bureau. 2012 American Community Survey 1 – Year Estimate

Wake County ‘s Foreign Born Population doubles since 2000 to 122,357 residents

www.wakegov.com

www.wakegov.com Source: Wake County Revenue Department

11,833 10,529

5,785

2,307

4,199 3,348

4,425

1,923

2,513

3,624

2,413

740

872

780

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Certificates of Occupancy for - New Single Family and Rental Units 2006-2012, single family edges up

Rental Units

Single Family Units

www.wakegov.com

$257,558 $267,773

$248,948

$264,638 $258,996 $260,362

$266,442

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

$300,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Ave

rag

e P

ric

e (

do

lla

rs)

Residential Sold Average Price 2007-2013

10,6

99

Un

its

So

ld

10,0

45

Un

its

So

ld

11,6

47

Un

its

So

ld

14,0

57

Un

its

So

ld

23,0

40

Un

its

So

ld

15,6

80

Un

its

So

ld

9,4

51

Un

its

So

ld

Number of Residential Units sold was 15,680 in 2013, the most units sold since 2007

Source: Wake County Revenue

Source: Wake County Revenue

New Single Family Permits surpass 2008 totals, still below pre-recession levels

10,384

5,187

3,493 3,744 3,703

4,822

6,195

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Total by Year

www.wakegov.com

www.wakegov.com

595

467

184

118 150

397

329

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total by Year

New Commercial Permits down from 2012, but higher than recession years

Source: Wake County Revenue Department

Total Units Permitted has been driven by Multi-Family Construction the last two years, uptick in single family

US Census Building Estimates Program

10,424

5,246

3,600 3,854 4,039 5,303

6,604

3,779

4,813

517 560

1,613

6,460

3,397

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Multi-Family

Single Family

www.wakegov.com

www.wakegov.com

6,050

7,002

4,195

1,568

753 669 1,009

1,899

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Acres Annexed by Year

1,899 acres annexed in 2013; highest since 2008, but still lower than pre-recession years

www.wakegov.com

Jurisdiction Number of

Annexations Acreage

Apex 15 283.15

Cary 22 417.42

Fuquay-Varina 5 101.8

Garner 2 41.28

Holly Springs 8 176.99

Knightdale 4 354.83

Morrisville 3 18.29

Raleigh 15 233.58

Rolesville 0 0

Wake Forest 6 269.01

Wendell 2 3.17

Zebulon 0 0

Municipal Total 82 1,899.52

Annexations Completed in 2013 by Municipality, Town of Cary had the most with 22 annexations for roughly 417 acres.

Source: Wake County Planning, Development, & Inspections

www.wakegov.com

www.wakegov.com

2013 Largest Employers in Wake County, a mix of education,

government, healthcare, and technology

Wake County Major Employers

State of North Carolina

Wake County Public Schools

NC State University

Wake Med Health/Hospital

Cisco Systems

Rex Healthcare

SAS Institute, Inc.

Wake County Government

City of Raleigh

Affiliated Computer Systems

Wells Fargo

Wake County Major Employers

Fidelity Investments

Wake Tech Community College

Lenovo

Duke Energy

Verizon Business

First Citizens Bank

Time Warner Cable

PNC Arena

NetApp

BB&T

SECU

Credit Suisse

Source: Wake County Economic Development- November 2013

www.wakegov.com

Number of Employed in Wake & Mecklenburg Counties continues to rise as the economy rebounds

435,294 439,095

418,187

424,563

436,499

453,190

462,187

425,429

435,107 422,897

428,381

437,464

453,415 457,859

400,000

425,000

450,000

475,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mecklenburg

County

Wake County

Source: NC ESC- January 2014 *2013- is an 12 month average

www.wakegov.com

3.4%

4.7%

8.2%

8.7% 8.3%

7.5%

6.5%

4.5%

6.1%

10.5%

11.2% 10.7%

9.5%

8.4%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Wake County

Mecklenburg County

NC

U.S.

Wake County’s Unemployment Rate is dropping but still higher than 2007 & 2008 levels

Source: NC ESC- January 2014 *2013- is an 12 month average

www.wakegov.com

Geographic Area

Median Household

Income

Median Family Income

Poverty Rate*

United States $51,371 $62,527 15.9%

North Carolina $45,150 $54,995 18.0%

Durham County $51,094 $63,141 19.8%

Johnston County $47,108 $58,253 17.3%

Orange County $51,095 $84,764 17.4%

Wake County $63,791 $81,712 11.6%

Wake County’s Median Household Income is the highest within the region, and the poverty rate is the lowest of neighboring counties

Source: US American Community Survey 2012 1-year estimate income and poverty data

www.wakegov.com

Wake County’s Tax base is 74% residential with a value of $91.3

billion in 2013

Tax Ratio 1993-2013

Total Value

$124.2 Billion

Commercial

Value $32.8 Billion

Residential Value

$91.3 Billion

Tax Values 2013-2014

Source: Wake County Revenue Department

63% 69% 74%

37% 31% 26%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1993 2000 2013

www.wakegov.com Source: Wake County Revenue Department

JURISDICTION % COMMERCIAL % RESIDENTIAL

Angier 15% 85% Apex 22% 78% Cary 25% 75% Clayton 100% 0% Fuquay Varina 29% 71% Garner 39% 61% Holly Springs 21% 79% Knightdale 31% 69% Morrisville 41% 59% Raleigh 30% 70% Rolesville 18% 82% Wake Forest 21% 79% Wendell 27% 73% Zebulon 70% 30% Countywide 26% 74%

Town of Zebulon’s tax base is 70% commercial and 30% residential

Wake Commuting

31 www.wakegov.com

2008-2012

Percentage of Residents who Work

in the City or Town where They Live

Highest Tier of In-Town Commuters

1. Raleigh 66%

2. Cary 38%

3. Zebulon 24%

Lowest Tier of In-Town Commuters

9. Holly Springs 16%

9. Wendell 16%

10. Rolesville 14%

11. Knightdale 13%

Percentage of Residents who Work In –

State but Outside the County where They Live

Highest Tier of Outside County Commuters

1. Morrisville 35%

2. Apex 26%

3. Cary 22%

Lowest Tier of Outside County Commuters

9. Garner 15%

9. Raleigh 15%

9. Rolesville 15%

10. Knightdale 13%

11. Wendell 12%

Daytime Population: 2006-2010

32 www.wakegov.com

Estimated commuter-adjusted daytime population – this is the estimate arrived at by adjusting the total resident population by the number of incommuters and outcommuters to the place, using data from the American Community Survey.

-5,991

-2,532

-600

174

-6,157

-1,841

6,294

64,212

-3,816

1,807

-10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

Apex

Cary

Fuquay-Varina

Garner

Holly Springs

Knightdale

Morrisville

Raleigh

Wake Forest

Zebulon

Daytime population change due to commuting

Rolesville and Wendell not included in the report. (Only places with either 2,500 workers living in the place or 2,500 workers working in the place)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-year estimates

www.wakegov.com Source: NC Administrative Office of the Courts and Foreclosure.com

1,230

1,686

1,860 1,997

1,040

1,547

1,334

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2013 Actual foreclosures is similar to 2007 levels

www.wakegov.com

What is the Cost-of-Living Index?

Source: ACCRA Cost of Living Index 2013

Purpose: To measure the relative price

levels for consumer goods and services in

metropolitan areas.

Process:

1. Each quarter Wake County Economic

Development collects price data for

goods selected by ACCRA. Other metro

areas also price the same exact goods

(at a specified time) and report it. The

index is released by quarter and

annually.

2. ACCRA weights each item and finds the

Annual Average Index from all 322

areas that participate.

3. The average cost for all places equals

100. Indexes higher than 100 have

above average costs.

www.wakegov.com

Wake County Cost of Living Index 2013 is similar to Austin, TX and Charlotte, NC.

Area Comp

Index

Grocery

Items Housing Utilities Transportation

Health

Care

Misc.

Goods &

Services

Raleigh-Cary,

NC 93.6 102.0 76.7 105.8 98.1 101.9 96.9

Austin, TX 93.2 84.3 86.6 91.2 97.4 99.5 100.2

Boston, MA 139.7 125.8 176.5 144.4 104.4 126.3 130.2

Atlanta, GA 95.3 91.4 87.7 92.1 102.3 102.7 100.0

Charlotte, NC 95.7 101.9 84.3 106.6 98.7 98.3 97.3

San Jose, CA 149.3 110.7 257.4 123.3 112.4 114.8 106.9

Richmond, VA 101.7 98.5 90.1 107.6 99.9 106.7 110.5

Nashville, TN 91.2 88.1 84.7 88.5 88.2 89.5 99.8

Portland, OR 117.6 103.0 143.3 96.6 115.4 117.4 110.5

www.wakegov.com

www.wakegov.com

16.20%

31.30%

8.50%

18.60%

17.20%

8.20%

Graduate or Professional

degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Some college, no

degree

High school diploma or

equivalency

Less than high school

diploma

Wake County Educational Attainment- 2012 US Census- 47.5% of people age 25 and older have at the minimum a bachelors degree

www.wakegov.com

Total Wake Tech Enrollment 2012-2013

2012-2013- 1,019 GED

Graduates, the largest

class in the NC

Community College

System

Degree/For Credit: 27,819

Continuing Education: 41,100

Wake Tech enrollment continues to increase and it is the largest community college within the State of NC.

www.wakegov.com

Five Takeaways from the Demographic Trends

1. Construction of Single Family & Multi-Family Housing is on the upswing

2. Number of residents employed is rising and unemployment rates are heading down

3. Foreclosures & Bankruptcies are back to pre-recession levels

4. Population Growth Rates are trending upward

5. Wake County will reach one million residents in 2015

www.wakegov.com

Components:

Trend at a Glance

At last count

What does this measure?

Did you know?

How is Wake performing?

Data Source(s)

Data Considerations

Charts & Maps

Under Development: 2014