Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Problems for changing the riskprevention strategy

Persistent attitudes of differentstakeholders

Dr. Klaus Wagner

Lehrstuhl für Forstpolitik und Forstgeschichte

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Steps for the Innovation within aRisk Prevention Strategy

parliaments, politicians

agencies

local stakeholders

implementation of the strategy(secure funding resources)

local actions according to thenew strategy

formulation of a politicalprogram

rethinking the strategy,development of innovations

scientific community;natural hazard community

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Tendencies in Natural HazardManagement

• increasing responsibility of the state (since 19thcentury)– large course corrections– founding of national agencies– national laws

• increasing environmental concerns (since 1970s)

• increasing role of precautionary measures inrelation to technical protection (since 1980s)

• from a security to a risk approach (present time)

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Case Study: Flood Zones inBavaria

parliaments, politicians

agencies

local stakeholders

Bavarian strategy for flood zonemapping

conflicts while designating floodzones at the river Tiroler Achen

laws and administrativeregulations

scientific community;natural hazard community

inhibit increase of damagepotential

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Amendments of Lawsadministrativeregulations

Bavarian Water Act(BayWG)

German FederalWater Act (WHG)

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Amendments of Laws

2005: inhibitincrease of damagepotential

1996: area forwater retention

1957: area forwater run off duringfloods

administrativeregulations

Bavarian Water Act(BayWG)

German FederalWater Act (WHG)

floods on the Rhine1993 and 1995

Elbe flood 2002

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Amendments of Laws

2005: inhibitincrease of damagepotential

1998: new buildingsand plantations areforbidden

1996: area forwater retention

1907: new buildingsare forbidden

1957: area forwater run off duringfloods

administrativeregulations

Bavarian Water Act(BayWG)

German FederalWater Act (WHG)

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Amendments of Laws

2005: inhibitincrease of damagepotential

none1998: new buildingsand plantations areforbidden

1996: area forwater retention

designationprocess and planlayout

1907: new buildingsare forbidden

1957: area forwater run off duringfloods

administrativeregulations

Bavarian Water Act(BayWG)

German FederalWater Act (WHG)

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Conclusion I

• disasters are necessary for amendments• amendments are highly controversial• in Bavaria: increasing uncertainty

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Implementation in Bavaria• declaration of flood zones only at 30% of

the length of the bigger rivers until 1997• since 1997 program for flood zone

mapping with a standardized hydrologicalmodelling procedure

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Conclusion II

• big time gap between formulation of thepolitical program and the implementationof the program

• disasters help to implement the program

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Conflicts on the Local Level

• 100-year flood zone is very large– broader than 4 km

• major conflict issue: What is aplantation?

• Solution:Ordinaryagriculture ispermitted withinthe flood zone

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Root Causes for the Conflict

• value conflict– property rights – common welfare– short term – long term

• No acceptance of the new hazardmanagement strategy

Chair of Forest Policy and Forest History

Conclusion III

parliaments, politicians

agencies

local stakeholders

implementation of the strategy(secure funding resources)

local actions according to thenew strategy

formulation of a politicalprogram

rethinking the strategy,development of innovations

scientific community;natural hazard community

disaster

disaster disaster

disaster

disaster

disaster