WA State Climate Impacts WA State Climate Impacts Assessment (HB 1303)Assessment (HB 1303)

CIG Fall Forecasting Meeting

October 2, 2007

Marketa McGuire Elsner

OutlineOutline

• Background of HB 1303

• WA State Climate Impacts Assessment (Integrated Assessment)– Sector Objectives– Products

• HB 1303 in the Context of the Governor’s Climate Change Initiative

HB 1303 BackgroundHB 1303 Background

• Passed in Spring 2007

• Supports emissions reduction and use of alternative fuels via changes in the Revised Code of Washington (RCW) and various funding programs

• Calls for CTED and Ecology work with Climate Impacts Group to evaluate impacts of climate change on Washington State– Develop comprehensive assessment that includes impacts of

global warming on public health, agriculture, the coastline, forestry, infrastructure, and water supply and management

Conceptual Approach to Conceptual Approach to AssessmentAssessment

• Integrated assessment of regional climate impacts:

• The study of how climate, natural resources, and human socioeconomic systems affect each other

Source: Snover et al. (2002). Integrating Natural and Social Science for Regional Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest. Mississippi River Climate and Hydrology Conference. Louisiana, May 2002.

Source: Snover et al. (2002). Integrating Natural and Social Science for Regional Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest. Mississippi River Climate and Hydrology Conference. Louisiana, May 2002.

State Climate Impacts Assessment State Climate Impacts Assessment –Sector Objectives–Sector Objectives

• Climate Scenarios • Hydrology and Water Resources • Agriculture -New• Salmon• Forests• Coasts• Human Health -New• Infrastructure -New• Adaptation

Products of HB 1303Products of HB 1303

• A report describing how climate change is projected to affect the people and resources of Washington state over the next 100 years, with focus on the next 50– Will be based on the 2007 global climate change

scenarios released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

– Will indicate how impacts vary by region across the state and indicate locations of high and low sensitivity to climate change

– Will characterize barriers to adaptation to these impacts (e.g., legal, institutional) and prioritize areas for future action.

Products of HB 1303Products of HB 1303• A web portal providing free access to data and maps

indicating projected changes in:– Temperature

– Precipitation

– Sea level rise

– Snowpack

– Streamflow

– Agricultural productivity

– Public health risk

– Salmon risk

– Forest risk

– Coastal vulnerability

Related StudiesRelated Studies

Interim Results and Progress Report

Dec 2007

Final Report Dec 2008

HB 1303State Climate Impacts Assessment

Governor’s EOWashington State

Climate Change Challenge (PAWGs)

Preliminary Recommendations

Dec 2007

Final Report Feb 2008

• Evaluation of impacts to 2100 – Focus on the next 50 years– Indicate how impacts vary by

region across the state– Indicate locations of high and low

sensitivity to climate change– Characterize barriers to

adaptation to these impacts (e.g., legal, institutional) and prioritize areas for future action

• Examination of the impacts of climate change and recommendations of specific steps the State of Washington should take to prepare for its impacts.

• Charge:– Identify vulnerabilities– Identify potential adaptation

approaches– Prioritize near-term approaches– Identify research needs

Thank youThank you