W European OEM & Aftermarket Toner & Inkjet Cartridge ...keypointintelligence.jp/pdffiles/0117/5...

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Sceptre House7-9 Castle StreetLuton, LU1 3AJwww.capv.com

Copyright© InfoTrends

W European OEM & Aftermarket Toner & Inkjet Cartridge Market 2004-2009

Catherine CresswellCSCS –Europe

00000000 2Copyright© InfoTrends

European Cartridge Market -Agenda

• All in-one toner cartridges• OEM and Aftermarket • Inkjet cartridges• OEM and aftermarket• Conclusion

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All-in-One Toner Cartridges


W European Mono Laser Installed Base started to decline in 2005

Mono Laser Printer and Printer MFPs 2004-2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

MFP 40-79 ppm WKGP2MonoMFP 25-39 ppm WKGP1MonoMFP 13-24 ppm WKGP1MonoMFP 7-12 ppm Pers. Mono

MFP 0-6 ppm Pers. Mono

SF 40-79 ppm WKGP2MonoSF 25-39 ppm WKGP1MonoSF 13-24 ppm WKGP1MonoSF 7-12 ppm Pers. Mono

SF 0-6 ppm Pers. Mono

CAGR -2.6%


W European Print Volume Images remain fairly flat but are starting to decline

Mono Laser Printer & Printer MFPs 2004-2009

0

50100

150200

250300

350400

450

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

MFP 40-79 ppm

MFP 25-39 ppm

MFP 13-24 ppm

MFP 7-12 ppm

MFP 0-6 ppm

SF 40-79 ppm

SF 25-39 ppm

SF 13-24 ppm

SF 7-12 ppm

SF 0-6 ppm

Billions of Images

CAGR -0.2%


W European Installed Base for Printers with AIO Cartridges Shifting to Fewer but Bigger Devices 2004-2009 K Units

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

25+ ppm13-24 ppm7-12 ppm0-6 ppm

CAGR -3.1%

Preliminary data


W European All-in-One Toner Cartridges shift to higher yield unitsUnits Millions 2004-2009

05

101520253035404550

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

25+ ppm13-24 ppm7-12 ppm0-6 ppm

CAGR -3.2%

Preliminary data


W European AIO Toner Cartridge Revenue still Increasing € Millions 2004-2009

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

25+ ppm13-24 ppm7-12 ppm0-6 ppm

CAGR 2%

Preliminary data


W European All-in-One Cartridges – by Engine 7-12 PPM2004-2009 Millions of Units

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Others (7-12) Existing

Others (7-12) Future

LJ1010 SPS (10 ppm)

LBP 22X

LBP 32X (7-12 ppm)

Optra M410

Samsung ML1210 (Lex E210)

Lexmark Optra S (1250)

Lexmark 4039 (7-12 ppm)

Lexmark 4019 (7-12 ppm)

Lexmark Optra (7-12 ppm)

LBP VX (8 ppm) / LJ6P

LBP BX

LBP EX (12 ppm)

LBP EX (8 ppm)

1200 SPS (7-12 ppm)

LBP SX

Preliminary data


W European All-in-One Cartridges – by Engine 13-24 PPM2004-2009 Millions of Units

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Others (13-24) ExistingOther (13-24) FutureLBP 32X (13-24 ppm)Xerox N17 / N24LJ2300 SPSLJ1300 SPSLJ1160 / 1320LJ1150 SPSLJ1010 (14 ppm)1200 SPS (13-24 ppm)LBP 62XLBP 52XLBP 52X SPSLexmark E320/322Lexmark T420Lexmark E321/ E323Lexmark T520 / T522Lexmark Optra T (13-24)Lexmark Optra SLexmark Optra (13-24 ppm)Lexmark 4039 (13-24 ppm)Fuji Xerox XP 15 / 20LBP WXLBP BX IILBP NX

Preliminary data


W European All-in-One Cartridges – by Engine 25+ PPM 2004-2009 Millions of Units

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Other Existing 25+ ppm

Other Future 25+ ppm

Fuji Xerox 45ppm / LexmarkW820 / Xerox 4525

Lexmark Optra T630

Lexmark Optra T620 / T622

4300 SPS

4200 SPS

9000 SPS

Lexmark Optra T616

Lexmark Optra Se 3455

Fuji Xerox 24 / 32 / 40

LBP 72X

Preliminary data


Trends in All-in-one-Toner Cartridges-

• Cartridges get bigger but volumes decline– 25ppm plus now the key part of the market– Revenue still growing

• Lifecycles on current machines may increase again– Due to less development of mono market

• Use of smart chips now the norm

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OEM Cartridges


W European OEM Cartridge Market by Segment in Units Millions 2004 – 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

25+ ppm13-24 ppm7-12 ppm0-6 ppm

CAGR -5%

Preliminary data


W European OEM Cartridge Market by Segment Value € Millions 2004-2009

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

25+ ppm13-24 ppm7-12 ppm0-6 ppm

Preliminary data

CAGR 0.8%


Trends in OEM Toner Cartridge Market

• Mono focus moves to 25ppm+ • But still a lot of volume in 13-24ppm

– Reduction in hardware pricing does flood market at lower end

• 2004-5 good growth in cartridge sales – But this peaks and expect decline– Moving to bigger cartridges– And move to colour placements

• 2005 saw vendors start to focus on colour– This will start to replace mono market– Expect slow down in replacement models for mono

• Multifunctionality also increasing but remains small

• Continued use of smart chips

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European Toner Cartridge Aftermarket


W European Aftermarket by Speed Segment Volume Millions of Units 2004-2009

0123456789

10

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

25+ ppm13-24 ppm7-12 ppm0-6 ppm

Preliminary data

CAGR 0.6%


W European Aftermarket by Speed Segment € Millions 2004 - 2009

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

26-40 ppm13-25 ppm7-12 ppm0-6 ppm

Preliminary data

CAGR 2.8%


Aftermarket Cartridge Units by Engine

0123456789

10

2004 2009

LBP 32X LBP 22X HP1010/1020 LBP 52XSPS1200SPS LJ1160 / 1320 LJ1300 SPS LJ4200LBP 72X Lex T630 All Others

Units (m)

HP1200

22X

32X

HP4200

HP1160/1320

HP1010/1020

HP4200

All othersAll others


Resulting All-in-One Toner Cartridge Aftermarket Share Units (m) 2004 –2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2004 2009

AftermarketOEM21% 25%

Preliminary data


AIO Cartridge Market Share 2004 Aftermarket vs OEM Original (units m)

0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00

10.00

France

German

y

Italy

Netherl

ands

Spain

Sweden UK

AM CartsOEM Carts


Cartridge Remanufacturers

Germany/SwitzerlandFarbax

UK/HongKong

France

UK

France

Ire/Portugal- US owned

Germany

UK/Romania

France

Germany

Germany/NLs

Germany/Switzerland

Netherlands

Country

GCC- compatibles- Q Imaging brandMBPGreenman TonersPolypore

Dataproducts (Clover)KMPAFICArmorK&U PrintwareTurbon Group (Kores,Tonerfill)Pelikan

XPS- sells mainly on contract to other recyclers

Largest Volume Players


Trends in European Toner CartridgeAftermarket

• 2004-5 sees aftermarket share drop to 21% – some major players in difficulty

• OEM price reductions in 2004 had major affect• Trend to own brand from major distributors

– Limiting the stocking of other 3rd party brands• Cost of Remanufacturing becomes an issue

– Production relocating into C& E Europe– Chips are now widely available but add a cost and

complexity and increase the time that it takes to develop new cartridges

• Concern about the rapid move to colour in the market– Some players move forward on colour– Chemical toners – a barrier for some but not others

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European Colour Toner Cartridge Market


Units (k)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

17+ppm WKGP3 Color

9-16 ppm WKGP2Color 5-8 ppm WKGP1 Color

0-4 ppm WKGP1 Color

W Europe Workgroup Colour Printer Installed Base 2004-2009

CAGR 21%


W European Workgroup Colour Laser Installed Base Share Estimates

HP41%

Xerox10%

Lexmark5%

Minolta QMS14%

Other6%

Brother3%Oki

10%

Epson11%

2004


HP dominates colour printer but others are growing rapidly

C752, C912 17-23ppm

Phaser 8400 solid ink Phaser 6100, 6250

HL2700C- SF 5-8ppmHL4000C, HL 4200C

C5000 series, C3100, C9000 & C7000 series

C900, C1900, C1100, C2600, C4000

MGC 2400 series,5400 series, MGC 3300

CLJ2550, CLJ3000 series, CLJ4650 series

Main models

Oki

Lexmark

Xerox

Brother

EpsonMinoltaHP

Vendor


W European Total Colour Cartridge Estimates 2004 and 2009

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Cartridges

CAGR 35%

Preliminary Data


W European HP Colour LaserjetInstalled Base estimates by model

0200400600800

1000120014001600

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

CLJ4500 CLJ8500 CLJ 2500CLJ 2550 CLJ1500 CLJ2820/40CLJ2600 CLJ4600 CLJ3500CLJ3700 CLJ3550 CLJ5500/CLJ5550CLJ9500 CLJ4650 CLJ 9850other future total

K Units


W European HP Colour LaserjetCartridge Estimates K Units

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

BlackColour

CAGR 28%


Trends in Colour Cartridge Market

• Competition among mono laser vendors to replace installed base with low cost colour lasers– Affordable colour laser/LED printers and printer MFPs– Colour laser to compete with inkjet in the office– Colour laser devices and MF versions also compete with

copier UCPs• Cartridge sales on colour devices forecast to grow

at around 35%– But a lot of output will be in black

• Aftermarket share of HP colour LAserjet business estimated at 8% in 2004 with growth to 11% by 2009– Aftermarket share of total market is around 4% with growth

to 6% by 2009

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European Inkjet Cartridge Market


W European Inkjet Printer and Fax Installed Base K Units 2003 –2008

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

SF PrinterMF PrinterSF FaxMF Fax

Inkjet Ptr = 3.2%Inkjet Fax = -6%


Inkjet Installed Base – Photo Printer Segmentation 2004-2009 K Units

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Snapshot Inkjet

Photo-centricInkjetPhoto-enabledInkjet

Does not include dye sub photo printers

Inkjet is increasingly driven by photo capability with increasing share of snapshot devices

CAGR 04-093.2%


W European Inkjet Printer Installed Base Share Estimatesby engine

HP41%

Lexmark14%

Epson22%

Other6%

Canon17%

2004

86.9 m inkjet printer units


Inkjet Technology Trends

• Inkjet printers continue to grow at 3-4% but growth is slowing in W Europe– Threatened in office by colour laser and solid ink– Devices shift from SF Print to Multifunction

• But vendors still investing in the technology– HP- Scaleable Print Technology (Office oriented)– Canon PIXMA- Fine Technology- Focus on photo

printing– Epson –UltraChrome K3 System- pigment Ink-

professional market


Inkjet Technology Trends(2)

• Photo printers drive growth– 29% printers are photocentric* in 2004– Expect 39% photocentric* 2009

• Some developments in high end inkjet may bring low cost high speed into office in longer term– Unlikely to compete on desktop print quality

however

*photocentric incls snapshot


W European Inkjet Printer and Fax Cartridges

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

MF PrinterSF PrinterMF FaxSF Fax

Units (m) CAGR3.2%


W European Inkjet Printer and Fax Cartridges Revenue € millions

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

MF PrinterSF PrinterMF FaxSF Fax

CAGR3.0%


W Europe Black vs Colour Inkjet Cartridge Units (Units millions)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2004 2009

BlackColour

Includes fax and printer cartridges

CAGRBLK: 2.3%COL: 4.3%


W Europe Black vs Colour Inkjet Cartridge Revenue(€ millions)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2004 2009

BlackColour

Includes fax and printer cartridges

CAGRBLK: 1.7%COL: 4.1%


W Europe Inkjet Cartridge Market Integrated vs Ink Tanks% Share

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

TanksIntegrated


W Europe Inkjet Cartridge Market Integrated vs Ink Tanks(Units Millions)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

IntegratedTanks

64% 55%


European Inkjet Cartridge Trends• More pressure on pricing for inkjet cartridges

– Users printing photos at home• But only small volumes

– For larger volumes increasingly use retail digital photo processing or the Web

• Expect inkjet supplies marketing to become even more focal– EG Cost per cartridge- or cost per print

• Inkjet printing packs launched – Ink and paper for a specific number of cartridges – easier to

compare costs– HP and Epson

• Growth of snapshot sized printers– Inkjet cartridges likely to be smaller

• Tanks v Integrated– Canon and HP shift emphasis

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Inkjet Aftermarket


OEM vs Aftermarket Inkjet Cartridge UnitsMillions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

OEMAftermarket

Printer Only

52 m

67 m

15.9%17.2%


W Europe Inkjet Aftermarket % ShareUnits & Revenue

02468

101214161820

2004 2009

Units

Revenue%


Aftermarket Units by Cartridge Brand They Are Used InMillions of Units

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2004 2009

HPCanonLexmarkEpsonOther


W Europe: Estimated Share of Aftermarket of Integrated and of Ink TanksMillions of Units

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2004 2009

IntegratedTanks

51% 44%


Major Aftermarket Inkjet Players W Europe

• Armor France• Pelikan Germany/Switz• DCI JetTec UK• Turbon Group Germany• EBP UK• JR Inkjet UK• KMP Germany• MBP France• AFIC UK• AlphaJet UK

Monthly volume range from 2 million cartridges per month to 20k /month


Inkjet Aftermarket Country Penetration is at Different Stages

0102030405060708090

% AM Share 14.5% 17.5% 15.5% 14.5% 12% 11% 17.5%Aftermarket 0.83 15.02 0.44 6.87 3.69 3.38 11.12

OEM 70.82 2.39 40.53 27.08 27.39 52.42

Denmark Germany Finland France Italy Spain UK

W. Europe average Aftermarket unit share is 15.9 % - 2004

4.92

M units


Inkjet Aftermarket Trends

• Growth of inkjet refilling shops across Europe– Cartridge World is the biggest chain– But other smaller chains and individual shops opening up– Success due to price differentials for cartridges– But use environment also as selling point

• As photo applications grow so need for high quality colour solutions is required – But still a challenge for some players

• Little activity from EU on cartridge pricing• HP has included collection bags for the popular

models HP 56,57, 337, 338, 343, 344, 342, 339


Challenges for the Inkjet Aftermarket

• Biggest challenges threatening future growth:– Continued use of smart chips

• Adds cost and complexity to remanufacturing process– Adhering to patents – for product and packaging– Legal pressure / OEM lobbying– Environmental legislation such as the WEEE law– Tough Competition in empty cartridge market– Channel Own Brand

• Which means that the aftermarket is forced to supply more cartridges for private label

• Dilutes their own brand strength– OEM price reductions


Future of the Cartridge Market in Europe

• Transition to colour has now started– Chemical toners– More complex cartridges

• OEMs challenge is to get users to output in colour– And to keep colour supplies revenues

• Aftermarket challenge is to find good source of supply– Toners and part– And/or finished cartridges– Small players will suffer

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Thank You……Any Questions?

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