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  • Vulnerability to climate change impacts and adaptation response options

    A report to the Australian Government Department of Climate Change

  • Vulnerability to climate change impacts and adaptation response options

    A report to the Australian Government Department of Climate Change

  • The east coast Tasmanian rock lobster fishery – vulnerability to climate change impacts and adaptation response options

    Gretta Pecl1, Stewart Frusher1, Caleb Gardner1, Marcus Haward2, Alistair Hobday3, Sarah Jennings4, Melissa Nursey-Bray5, André Punt6, Hilary Revill7, and Ingrid van Putten4

    Largely as a function of the interdisciplinary nature of the research, this report represents a major contribution from all authors; the order of co-authors given here is alphabetical.

    Addresses 1. Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute, University of Tasmania 2. School of Government and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, University of Tasmania 3. Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO, Hobart, Tasmania 4. School of Economics and Finance, University of Tasmania 5. National Centre for Marine Conservation and Resource Sustainability, Australian Maritime College – a

    specialist Institute of the University of Tasmania 6. Pop Model Ltd 7. Wild Fisheries Management Branch, Department of Primary Industries and Water

    Please cite this report as: Pecl G, Frusher S, Gardner C, Haward M, Hobday A, Jennings S, Nursey-Bray M, Punt A, Revill H, van Putten I (2009). The east coast Tasmanian rock lobster fishery – vulnerability to climate change impacts and adaptation response options. Report to the Department of Climate Change, Australia.

    © Commonwealth of Australia 2009

    This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth), no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the Commonwealth. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to the Commonwealth Copyright Administration, Attorney General’s Department, Robert Garran Offices, National Circuit, Barton ACT 2600 or posted at http://www.ag.gov.au/cca

    ISBN: 978-1-921298-68-4

    Cover image: Rock Lobster (Bruce Miller)

    Disclaimer The authors do not warrant that the information in this book is free from errors or omissions. The authors do not accept any form of liability, be it contractual, tortious or otherwise, for the contents of this book or for any consequences arising from its use or any reliance placed upon it. The material includes the views or recommendations of third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Australian Government, or indicate a commitment to a particular course of action. The material in this document is provided for general information only, and on the understanding that the Australian Government is not providing professional advice on a particular matter. Before any action or decision is taken on the basis of this material the reader should obtain appropriate independent professional advice.

    Acknowledgments Funded by the Australian Government through the Department of Climate Change. We thank the Tasmanian rock lobster fishers for contributing valuable information to the various surveys that are incorporated into this report, and the interviews that were conducted as part of Chapter 3 of the report. Many fishers and industry representatives attended the workshop where the range of potential adaptation strategies were generated. Jason Bedelph, Fiona Brodribb and Zoe Doubleday helped prepare some of the figures and provided substantial assistance with the formatting and proof reading of this document. Sven Frijlink kindly allowed access to the unpublished data from recreational fishers cited in Chapters 2 and 3. Dr Adrian Linnane (South Australian Research and Development Institute) kindly provided constructive feedback on the draft report.

  • Contents iii

    Vulnerability to climate change impacts and adaptation response options

    Contents

    Glossary of Terms ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................vi

    Executive summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................viii

    1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Project background and aims ..........................................................................................................................................................1

    1.2 Project framework .................................................................................................................................................................................2

    1.3 Report structure .....................................................................................................................................................................................3

    2 Current status of the Tasmanian rock lobster fishery ....................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Biological component of the rock lobster system ....................................................................................................................4

    2.1.1 Rock lobster life-history and distribution overview ......................................................................................................4

    2.2 Human component of the rock lobster system .........................................................................................................................7

    2.2.1 Recreational fishery .................................................................................................................................................................8

    2.2.2 The commercial sector ............................................................................................................................................................8

    2.2.3 Rock lobster processors ...................................................................................................................................................... 11

    2.2.4 Commercial rock lobster fishing business characteristics .................................................................................... 11

    2.3 Current and emerging issues for the fishery...........................................................................................................................12

    2.4 Governance framework of the rock lobster fishery ..............................................................................................................13

    2.4.1 Background to current arrangements ............................................................................................................................13

    2.4.2 Governance: key elements ................................................................................................................................................13

    2.4.3 Existing governance arrangements and adaptive capacity ..................................................................................14

    3 Rock lobster fishers’ perceptions of climate change.......................................................................................................15 3.1 Risk perception excercise...............................................................................................................................................................15

    3.1.1 Method ........................................................................................................................................................................................15

    3.1.2 Results ........................................................................................................................................................................................15

    3.1.3 Discussion .................................................................................................................................................................................17

    4 Potential bio-physical impacts of climate change on rock lobster stocks on the east coast of Tasmania ....................................................................................................................................................................................19

    4.1 Recent climate change in the east coast rock lobster fishery region ...........................................................................19

    4.2 Climate change and models ..........................................................................................................................................................20

    4.2.1 Predicted climate change scenarios ..............................................................................................................................21

    4.3 Response of rock lobster stocks to predicted climate change ........................................................................................25

  • iv Contents

    Vulnerability to climate change impacts and adaptation response options

    4.3.1 Regional assessments (M1) ..