Vulnerability: Progress in food Security Thomas E. Downing Environmental Change Institute Oxford.
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Transcript of Vulnerability: Progress in food Security Thomas E. Downing Environmental Change Institute Oxford.
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Vulnerability:Progress in food Security
Thomas E. DowningEnvironmental Change InstituteOxford
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Vulnerability is…
An aggregate measure of human welfare that integrates environmental, social, economic and political exposure to a range of harmful perturbations.
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The zephyrs of breeze that locate vulnerability within the trade winds of globalisation and climate change …
… demand our concern, before they become gales
… must be charted with new instruments spawned by multiple disciplines and appropriate technologies
… can be buffered through known strategies and measures
Mozambique waiting for more rain
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Workshop challenges
How strong is current knowledge in this area?
What do we best and least understand? What new research would be most
important? What major synthetic approaches have
evolved? Can vulnerability be internalised into
broader integrated assessments?
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Outline
Placing vulnerability in context: Demand for information Historical trends
Examples and methodologies State of knowledge Conclusions (if any)
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Demand for information Where are the vulnerable?
Targeting geographical region, socio-economic class
Who are vulnerable? Relative vulnerability among households
and individuals What should be done?
Link to intervention/adaptation What is the future of vulnerability?
Exposure to global change, policy impacts
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Uses of vulnerability assessments
Scale Indices Users
International Nationalcomparisons ofvulnerability
UNFCCC:Eligibility foradaptationfunding
Regional Multiple dimensionprofiles of regional
vulnerability
Regionalagencies:Programmedesign
LocalProfiles of vulnerable situations
or syndromesLocal offices:Project evaluation
Eco-systems
WaterOthersectors
Food HealthSettle-ment
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Historical perspective
Exposure: Food security --> Livelihood security
VAM: Hoovering --> Structured assessment Single indicator --> Profiles -->
Pathways?
Rescaling Regional --> Individual --> Globalisation
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How can we assess vulnerability, and its links to global change and adaptive capacity?
Typologies of methodsComparisons of methodsAgency and institutions
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Operational vulnerability assessment
How do we develop a consensual definition and measurement of vulnerability?
How do we measure vulnerability?
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Typologies
Single and multiple indicesExpert decision support systemEmpiricalProcess model
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HDI ClassMissing (10)Low (45)Medium (22)High (100)
Human Development Index
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Vulnerability Profile, Delanta Dawunt, Ethiopia
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1HH Size
Male laborers
Total Income
Total Expenditure
Crops sales price in bad year
Food Aid
Grazing land
Crop land
Mid Altitude
Road Access
Livestock holdings
Types of dairy
Low income crop (V High)
Middle income crop (High)
Crop/dairy (Mod)
Isolated, middle income crop (Mod)
High income dairy (Mod)
Vulnerability profile for Ethiopia
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Emerging Sustainable
Farmers
An agent-based approach to seasonal climate forecasting
Climate Forecasters
DisseminationChannels
CommercialFarmers
Vulnerable Farmers
•Represent actors as software agents•Multi-level vulnerability•Processes and pathways•Emergence from interactions
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State of knowledge
LevelsProcessesThreats
Competing definitions Common wisdom Evidence based policy (interventions)
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Scales of vulnerability Global:
Stable assessment of global poverty Uncertain relations to global change and globalisation
Regional/national: Stable ranking of relative vulnerability
Local: Patchy, depending on assessments Slow response to emerging vulnerable groups
Time scales Short term fluctuations and long term evolution Seasonal scales subject to famine early warning
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Processes Human ecology of production:
Well known, but connected to other scales Exchange economy and impoverishment:
Extent of global linkages poor Political economy and empowerment:
Fair understanding Nutritional status and interventions:
Well understood Concatenation of exposure:
Few studies across the range of exposure Difficult to generalise
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Threats
Environmental degradation, climate change Conflict Economic change: recession, hyperinflation Underdevelopment
Pathways and mechanisms ? Relative risk Local realisation
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Conclusions
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ADDITIONAL SLIDES…
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HAZARDHAZARD
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
RISK SPACE Risk is the overlay of hazardand vulnerabilityDisasters are the realisationof risk Both hazard and vulnerabilityare changing
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Confidence in climate change
Mean Trends ExtremesComplexEpisodes
Projection
TemperatureSea level rise
CO2
Heat wavesLightning
Boundeddivergence
RegionalPrecipitation
Droughtepisodes
Major floods
Risk High tidesPrecipitationin
tensityWindstormsStorm surge
Surprise North AtlanticPersistentdrought
PersistentENSO
Confidence in future climate change varies. Some elements can be projected--the direction of change is known. For others, the sign of the change is not known, but the range of projections is bounded reasonably well. For complex changes, our knowledge is limited to approximate shifts in risks and potential for surprises.
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Vulnerability is…
about equity…linking climate change to uneven development
concerns people…begin with the humanitarian concerns for vulnerable socio-economic groups
an integrating method…for targeting adaptation
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Priorities for adaptationMean Trends Extremes
ComplexEvents
ProjectionPlan adaptation strategies and
measures:Coastal retreat
Boundeddivergence
Implementadaptationmeasures:
Water efficiency
Risk
Reducevulnerability:
Flood plainrestrictions
Reduce vulnerability, monitor,prepare:
Drought preparedness
SurpriseWorst case scenariosAdaptation failure?
Emergency preparedness
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Focus on the most vulnerable groups
Sustainable livelihoods Resource poor Uncertain incomes Marginalised
In context Institutional capacity Governance Infrastructure
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Criteria for evaluating adaptation
Apply criteria to relevant stakeholders and vulnerable groups Resilience and effectiveness Strategic responses Timing Economic evaluation Constraints Conflicts
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Adaptation strategies for water
Stakeholders Conseq. Antic. Inst. Ed’n. Dev’t
Vulnerable users
Consumers
Large-scale users ?
Private watercarriers
River basinagencies
? ?
Research ?
Ministries
Aid organisations ? ?
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Evaluation of strategies in agriculture
Criteria Reserves Trade Technology Aggregate
Stakeholders Aid agencies Companies Agro-tech All
Vulnerable groups ? Low income Women Resource poor
Multiple benefits M M L M
Specific to climate change M L L L
Effectiveness M M H H
Development L M H H
Planning horizon 1-5 1-5 5-10 ~5
Irreversible impacts L L L L
Initial investment M L H M
Realisation of benefits Many Many Producers Many
Information L L M M
Technology L L H H
Socio-political M M H H
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Dessication in the Sahel
In the last 10 years long-term impacts of droughts and famines of the 1970s in Sahel became evident
Major droughts in the past Century 1910-1916, 1941-1945, late 1960 with a peak in
1970s
In the last 10 years long-term impacts of droughts and famines of the 1970s in Sahel became evident
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Responses
Wide range of coping strategies bartering, migration, social welfare, formal insurance,
education, etc. Research and monitoring: Creation of CILSS in 1973 Early warning systems Working with the human and drought-induced
stress on natural ecosystems Improved agricultural production technologies
(improved variety of millet and sorghum, intensive cultivation techniques)
Increase of rural mobility
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Boosting local capacities
Creation of farmers cooperatives Small-scale NGOs and CBOs projects Integration of environmental
rehabilitation to development projects and programs
Innovative techniques in soil and water conservation
Popular erosion control methods Agroforestry
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Regional and national levels
Improving and strengthening local management and development initiatives
Building upon own skills, indigenous knowledge and resources
Assess long term trends Improving sustainable livelihood
systems
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Cyclones and sea level rise
Progressive coping capacity in Bangladesh: 1 million deaths in 1960s 100,000 deaths in 1970s 10,000 deaths in 1980s 1,000 deaths in 1990s
Aid can be effective