Vulnerability PK Aggarwal
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Transcript of Vulnerability PK Aggarwal
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Vulnerability of Indian Agricultureto Climate Change:
Current State of Knowledge
MOEF_NATCOM; 14th October 2009
P.K. Aggarwal and others
Indian Agricultural Research Institute
New Delhi
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Climate change and agriculture in
India: ICAR Research Network
A Network on
Climate Changeand agriculturelaunched in 2004for studies onimpact
assessment,adaptation andmitigation options
Current strength:23 institutes; > 100scientists
Funding: ICAR
Many more centersof research now.
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ICAR Network on Climate Changeand Agriculture: Thematic areas
ICAR Network on Climate change and Agriculture
VulnerabilityGHG emissions
andmitigation
Plantation CropsCoconut, apple
CropsWheat,Paddy,Potato,Pulses,Cotton,
Vegetables
Live stockCows
Buffalo
Poultry
FisheriesMarine
Fresh watercorals
SoilFertilityErosion
Water
SpecialEcosystems
RainfedCoastal
Hill
RiceUpland
LowlandIrrigated
Deepwater
Live stock
Soil Carbon
Crop residueburning
ICAR Network on Climate change and Agriculture
VulnerabilityGHG emissions
andmitigation
Plantation CropsCoconut, apple
CropsWheat,Paddy,Potato,Pulses,Cotton,
Vegetables
Live stockCows
Buffalo
Poultry
FisheriesMarine
Fresh watercorals
SoilFertilityErosion
Water
SpecialEcosystems
RainfedCoastal
Hill
RiceUpland
LowlandIrrigated
Deepwater
Live stock
Soil Carbon
Crop residueburning
Only rice, wheat, soybean and GHG inventory in NATCOM1
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Impact assessment of climate change:
Characterizing crop response to carbon dioxide
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Source: Singh et al. 2009
Impact assessment of climate change:Characterizing crop response to temperature- TGTs
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Impact assessment of climate change:Process- based simulation models
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Projected impacts of climate change
on Indian agriculture
Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm increases yields of
rice, wheat, legumes and oilseeds by 10-20%. A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields
of wheat, soybean, mustard, groundnut, andpotato by 3-7%. Much higher losses at highertemperatures.
Productivity of most crops to decrease onlymarginally by 2020 but by 10-40% by 2100.
Possibly some improvement in yields of chickpea,
rabi maize, sorghum and millets; and coconut inwest coast. Less loss in potato, mustard and vegetables in
north-western India due to reduced frost damage.
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Projected impacts of climate change
on Indian agriculture
Increased droughts and floods are likely to increase
production variability Considerable effect on microbes, pathogens, and
insects
Increasing sea and river water temperatures are
likely to affect fish breeding, migration, andharvests Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement
for livestock
Animal distress due to heat; effects on reproduction Loss of 1.5 million tons of milk by 2020 Imbalance in food trade due to positive impacts on
Europe and N.America, and negative impacts on us.
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Impact of climate change on wheat
30
3540
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2000 2020 2050 2080
Year
Wheatproduction,
milliontons Control
Adapted
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Impact of climate change on potato
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2020 2050
Year
Los
sinpotatoproduction,
%
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Impact of climate change on length of
growing period in rainfed areas
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1980
-81
1982
-83
1984
-85
1986
-87
1988
-89
1990
-91
1992
-93
1994
-95
1996
-97
1998
-99
2000
-200
1
Years
Yield
(Tons)
Impact on apples: Declining yields in
Himachal due to inadequate chilling
Source: HPKVV/ICAR network
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Impact of climate change on
coconut yields
-35 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 +5 +10 +15 +20 +25 +30 +35 +40 +45
RELATIVE YIELD DEVIATION
Districts with white colour were not simulatedSource: Naresh Kumar et al. 2008
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Impact on quality: Effect of temperature on
basmati rice quality
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32
Mean temperature during grain growth, C
L/B
ratio
PS-2P-1121S. Basmati
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32
Mean temperature during grain growth, C
Grainelongationratio
PS-2P-1121S.Basmati
Source: IARI/ICAR network
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0.1% - 1%
1% - 10%
10 % - 25%
25% - 50%
>50%
1961-1976 1977-1986
1987-1996 1997-2006
Impact on fish: Extension of northern boundary
of oil sardine.The colored lines indicate percentage of All India oil sardine production
Source: CMFRI/ICAR network
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Impact of climate change on milk
production: Temperature-Humidity Index
Source: NDRI/ICAR networ
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
50 60 70 80 90
THI
Milkyield,
l/ha
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Uncertainties
Errors in climate models, crop modelsand data used
No links with future water availability
No consideration of weather extremes Future technological developments
and socio-economic scenarios
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Climate change: A key driver for agriculture
in 21st century
Increasing demand for food >276 million tons by 2021 as against current
production of 230 million tons now
Increasing competition for resources For land, water, capital, and labour from industry and
urban settlements
Increasing variability of global supplies,and prices
Adapting agriculture to climate change:Need to consider other challenges for future food security
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Adaptation in agriculture is a
continuous process
Agriculture diversity is a manifestation of
climatic adaptation Farmers/society have always adapted when
allowed by technology availability, their socio-economic capacity, and economics.
Traditional coping strategies: mixed cropping,changing land use, diversification of incomesources, migration,
Nature of agriculture has changed - fromsubsistence oriented to market oriented: Needfor other adaptation strategies
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Increasing adaptive capacity of
agriculture to climate change
Concerns:
Changes in mean temperatureand rainfall
Variability in weather/climate,particularly unpredictable short-term weather extremes
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1. Assist farmers in coping with current climatic risks-weather services, agro-advisories, insurance, community banks
for seed and fodder
2. Intensify food production systems-technology and input delivery systems, market links
3. Improve land and water management-technologies for resource conservation and use efficiency
4. Enable policies and regional cooperation-incentives to farmers for resource conservation and use
efficiency, pricing of resources, credit for transition toadaptation technologies
5. Strengthen research for enhancing adaptive capacity-varieties, resource conservation technologies, pest surveillance
-for improved assessments: mechanism for collection anddissemination of weather, soil, water and agricultural data
How to adapt agriculture to climate change?
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Conclusions
Climate change is likely to reduce yields of mostcrops in long-term. In short-term effects may besmall (preliminary results, better field data and models needed).
Increased climatic variability could cause significantfluctuations in production even in short-term.
Adaptation strategies can help minimize negativeimpacts. These need greater research, policy andfinancial support.
Costs of adaptation are less understood but likely to
be high; costs of inaction could be even higher. Adaptation practices take time to become effective.
A crop variety, e.g. takes 10-20 yrs to develop. Needto act now.