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  • Vulnerability indicators of adaptation to climate change and policy implications for investment projects

    Carlos Ludena Sang W. Yoon Leonardo Sánchez-Aragón Sebastian Miller Bok-Keun Yu

    858

    Climate Change and Sustainability Division

    TECHNICAL NOTE Nº

    October 2015

  • Vulnerability indicators of adaptation to climate change and policy implications for investment projects

    Carlos Ludenaᵠ Sang W. Yoonᵞ Leonardo Sánchez-Aragónᵝ Sebastian Millerᶱ Bok-Keun Yuᶲ

    ᵠ Climate Change and Sustainability Division, Inter-American Development Bank ᵞ PhD Candidate, University of Maryland, College Park ᵝ Consultant, Inter-American Development Bank and Professor, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral (ESPOL), Ecuador ᶱ Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank ᶲ Bank of Korea and Inter-American Development Bank

    October 2015

  • Cataloging-in-Publication data provided by the Inter-American Development Bank Felipe Herrera Library Ludena, Carlos E. Vulnerability indicators of adaptation to climate change and policy implications for investment projects / Carlos E. Ludeña, Sang Won Yoon, Leonardo Sánchez-Aragón, Sebastian Miller, Bok-Keun Yu. p. cm. — (IDB Technical Note ; 858) Includes bibliographic references. 1. Climatic changes. 2. Climate change mitigation. 3. Investments—Environmental aspects. I. Ludeña, Carlos E. II. Yoon, Sang Won. III. Sánchez-Aragón, Leonardo. IV. Miller, Sebastian. V. Yu, Bok-Keun. VI. Inter-American Development Bank. Climate Change and Sustainability Division. VII. Series. IDB-TN-858 JEL classifications: F34, H43, Q54, Z18 Keywords: climate change, adaptation, vulnerability indicator, investment, loan, grant, Latin America, Caribbean

    Contact author: Carlos Ludena (carlosl@iadb.org)

    Copyright © Inter-American Development Bank. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons IGO 3.0 Attribution- NonCommercial-NoDerivatives (CC-IGO BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/ legalcode) and may be reproduced with attribution to the IDB and for any non-commercial purpose. No derivative work is allowed.

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    The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Inter-American Development Bank, its Board of Directors, or the countries they represent.

    http://www.iadb.org

    2015

  • This study includes results of three studies from Brazil, Mexico and Bolivia developed under

    the research initiative “Assessing local vulnerability to climate change in Latin America and

    the Caribbean” coordinated by Carlos Ludena and Leonardo Sanchez-Aragon of the Climate

    Change and Sustainability Division (INE/CCS) of the Inter-American Development Bank

    (IDB).

    The research initiative was developed in close collaboration with Sebastian Miller from the

    Research Department (RES/RES), Sebastian Corderi from the Environment, Rural

    Development and Natural Disasters Division (INE/RND) and Fernando Miralles from the

    Water and Sanitation Division (INE/WSA), and the sector specialists from those divisions in

    charge of the IDB projects analyzed under this research.

    Please cite as:

    Ludena, C.E., S.W. Yoon, L. Sánchez-Aragón, S. Miller, B-K. Yu. 2015. Vulnerability

    Indicators of Adaptation to Climate Change and Policy Implications for Investment Projects.

    Inter-American Development Bank, Technical Note No. 858, Washington DC.

  • Index

    1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………….1

    2. Conceptualization of vulnerability…………………………………………………………..3

    3. Local vulnerability indicators at the sectoral level………………………………………4

    3.1 Agriculture……………………………………..………………………………………………6

    3.2 Coastal zones……………………………………………………………………………..…11

    3.3 Water resources………………………………………….……………………………….…14

    3.4 Forest……………………………………………………….……………………………..…17

    4. Case Studies: Analysis of IDB Development Projects……………………………….…19

    4.1 Analysis of IDB project profiles…………………….…………………………………..…19

    4.1.1 Provincial Agricultural Services Program (PROSAP III) in Argentina………….…20

    4.1.2 Coastal Risk Assessment and Management Program (CRAMP) in Barbados.…21

    4.1.3 Bahia Environmental Development Program (BEDP) in Brazil………………...…23

    4.1.4 Integrated Watershed Management in Lakes Apanas and Asturias (IWMLAA) in

    Nicaragua…………………………………………………….……………………………..…24

    4.2 Development of vulnerability indicators for IDB projects………………………………..26

    4.2.1 Development Program in the Southwest Region of the State of Tocantins

    (PRODOESTE) in Brazil……………………………………………………………………..26

    4.2.2 National Irrigation Program with a Watershed Approach (PRONAREC) in

    Bolivia............................................................................................................................29

    4.2.3 Sustainability of Water Supply and Sanitation Services in Rural Communities III in

    Mexico………………………………………………………………………………………….30

    5. Policy implications……………………………………………………………………………..32

    6. References…………………………………………………………………………………...…..34

  • ii

    Index of Tables

    Table 1. Summary of possible local vulnerability indicators in agricultural sectors ............... 10

    Table 2. Summary of local vulnerability indicators in coastal sectors ................................... 13

    Table 3. Summary of local vulnerability indicators in water supply sectors ......................... 16

    Table 4. Summary of local vulnerability indicators in forest sectors .................................... 18

    Table 5. Main characteristics of IDB project “Provincial Agricultural Services Program” (AR-

    L1120) ................................................................................................................................ 21

    Table 6. Main characteristics of IDB project “Coastal Risk Assessment and Management

    Program” (BA-L1014) .......................................................................................................... 22

    Table 7. Main characteristics of IDB project “Bahia Environmental Development Program”

    (BR-L1103) ......................................................................................................................... 24

    Table 8. Main characteristics of the IDB project “Integrated Watershed Management in

    Lakes Apanás and Asturias” (NI-X1005) ............................................................................. 25

    Table 9. Main characteristics of IDB project “Development Program in the Southwest

    Region of the State of Tocantins” (BR-L1152) ..................................................................... 28

    Table 10. Main characteristics of IDB project “National Irrigation Program with a Watershed

    Approach” (BO-L1021) ........................................................................................................ 30

    Table 11. Main characteristics of the IDB project “Sustainability of Water Supply and

    Sanitation Services in Rural Communities III” (ME-L1050) .................................................. 32

    Index of Figures

    Figure 1. Factors determining a System’s Vulnerability to Climate Change…………………..4

  • iii

    Vulnerability Indicators of Adaptation to Climate Change and Policy Implications for

    Investment Projects

    Relevant and appropriate indicators for vulnerability at both the local levels are significant for

    effective adaptation to climate change. The paper reviews the literature of these indicators,

    and explores this issue using a selected sample of development projects from the Inter-

    American Development Bank (IDB) to assess the measurement of vulnerability. We find the

    importance of assessing vulnerability based on local indicators reflecting the characteristics

    of different sectors. The results of analyzing the IDB projects case studies suggest that

    projects should be designed from project inception to incl