VULNERABILITY, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN VULNERABILITY, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT

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Transcript of VULNERABILITY, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN VULNERABILITY, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT

  • VULNERABILITY, IMPACTS

    AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN THE EAST

    AFRICA REGION

    CHAPTER 8:

    AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY – FUTURE IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

    NOVEMBER 2017

    This report was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Camco Advisory Services (K) Ltd. under subcontract to Tetra Tech ARD.

  • This report was produced for review by Camco Advisory Services (K) Ltd. under subcontract to Tetra Tech ARD, through USAID/Kenya and East Africa Contract No. AID-623-C-13-00003.

    CAMCO AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY SECTOR TEAM

    Mr. Richard Madege, Dr. Stephen Lwasa, Prof. Justus Rutaisire, Dr. Drake Mubiru, Dr. Michael Okoti, Dr. Nancy Omollo, Mr. Maushe Kidundo, and Ms. Dorothy Nyigi

    TECHNICAL REVIEWERS

    Mr. Gideon Galu, Dr. Phillip Omondi, Dr. Michael Okumu, and Prof. Odingo Tetra Tech ARD 159 Bank Street, Suite 300 Burlington, Vermont 05401 USA Tetra Tech ARD Contacts: Anna Farmer Korinne Nevins Project Manager Assistant Project Manager Tetra Tech Tetra Tech Burlington, Vermont Burlington, Vermont Tel.: (802) 658-3890 Tel.: (802) 658-3890 Anna.Farmer@tetratech.com Korinne.Nevins@tetratech.com

  • iii VIA: Agriculture and Food Security in East Africa – Future Scenarios

    VULNERABILITY, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN THE EAST AFRICA REGION

    CHAPTER 8: AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY – FUTURE IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

    NOVEMBER 2017 DISCLAIMER This report is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

  • iv VIA: Agriculture and Food Security in East Africa – Future Scenarios

  • v VIA: Agriculture and Food Security in East Africa – Future Scenarios

    CONTENTS

    CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................................... v ACRONYMS .........................................................................................................................................vi 1.0 IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURE IN EAST AFRICA .................................................... 1

    1.1 Agriculture and Food Security .............................................................................................................. 1 2.0 IMPACTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE HEALTH SECTOR ............................... 5

    2.1 Food Security ............................................................................................................................................ 5 2.2 Agricultural Production Systems .......................................................................................................... 7 2.3 Crops ......................................................................................................................................................... 12 2.4 Livestock Subsector ............................................................................................................................... 20 2.5 Fisheries Subsector ................................................................................................................................ 25 2.6 Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 28

    3.0 CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS FOR THE SECTOR .................. 30 3.1 Projecting the East African Climate ................................................................................................... 30 3.2 Projecting Climate Change for the Agriculture Sector in the LVB ........................................... 35 3.3 Crop Yield ................................................................................................................................................ 52 3.4 Suitability of Crop Lands ...................................................................................................................... 53 3.5 Rangelands ................................................................................................................................................ 53 3.6 ANPP ......................................................................................................................................................... 54 3.7 Livestock Pests and Diseases .............................................................................................................. 55 3.8 Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 56

    4. SECTOR ADAPTATION PRACTICES, OPTIONS, AND CONSTRAINTS ................ 60 4.1 Key Considerations ............................................................................................................................... 60 4.2 Institutional and Policy Framework—Sector Preparedness ........................................................ 65 4.3 Gender Considerations ........................................................................................................................ 70

    5. SUGGESTIONS FOR SECTOR ADAPTATION OPTIONS ........................................... 75 REFERENCES..................................................................................................................................... 79 APPENDIX ......................................................................................................................................... 89

  • vi VIA: Agriculture and Food Security in East Africa – Future Scenarios

    ACRONYMS

    AIC Akaike Information Criterion ANPP Annual Net Primary Productivity ARDS Agricultural Rural Development Strategy CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme CCAFS Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security CCU Climate Change Unit CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research DOM Department of Meteorology EAC East African Community EUS Epizootic ulcerative syndrome FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FSAP Food Security Action Plan GCM Global climate model GDP Gross domestic product IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JJAS June-July-August-September LVB Lake Victoria Basin MA Moving average MAM March-April-May MAXENT Maximum entropy ML Maximum likelihood NAPA National Adaptation Program for Action NCCRS National Climate Change Response Strategy NMA National Meteorological Authority OND October-November-December RCP Representative Concentration Pathway RVF Rift Valley Fever USAID United States Agency for International Development VIA Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation Assessment

  • 1 VIA: Agriculture and Food Security in East Africa – Future Scenarios

    1.0 IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURE IN EAST AFRICA

    1.1 AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY

    All five East African countries (Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda) can be characterized as “agriculture-based,” that is, agriculture is the backbone of these economies. Agriculture is dominated by smallholder farmers who occupy most of land and produce for household income and food security.

    A majority of the agricultural production in East Africa is rain-fed (90–95 percent) making its productivity highly sensitive to climate variability and change. Irrigated agriculture accounts for about 5–10 percent of agricultural production. This can be attributed to low investment in the development of irrigation infrastructure, though the region has a good network of water resources.

    An estimated 25–60 percent of the region’s population is undernourished, with almost 10 percent living under chronic food insecurity conditions in the past decade, due to both increasing climatic shocks and non-climatic stressors, such as escalating food prices, natural resources-–based conflicts, high poverty rates, rapidly increasing population, and high post-harvest losses.

    Despite all these challenges agriculture is still an important economic driver for sustainable development in East African Community (EAC) and employs about 80 percent of its rural population. The sector contributes to food security, foreign exchange earnings, and provides raw materials for agro-based industries (Table 1).

    Table 1: Economic importance of agriculture in East Africa

    Tanzania Kenya Uganda Rwanda Burundi Agriculture

    GDP 27% 29% 23.8% 36% 50%

    Crops to GDP 34.8% 66% 45% 30.3% 70%

    Forex contribution 35% 60% 45% 90.2%

    Employment 77.5% 80% 80% 86.5% 90%

    Food crops Maize, sorghum, millet, cassava, sweet potatoes, bananas, pulses, paddy, and wheat

    Maize, wheat, beans, peas, and potatoes

    Plantains, cassava, sweet potatoes, millet, sorghum, maize, beans, and groundnuts

    Plantains, sweet potato, pulses, Irish potato, paddy, maize

    Banana, roots/tubers, pulses, paddy, wheat, groundnuts

    Export crops Coffee, cashew nut, tea, cotton, tobacco, and sisal

    Coffee, tea, horticultural crops

    Coffee, cotton, tea, cocoa, tobacco, sugar cane, flowers, and horticulture

    Horticulture, tea, and coffee

    Coffee, tea,