Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyroland Bavaria

Kühtai (2020-2520m); 12.12.2004 © Robert Steiger

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Overview

• Climate-trend• Snow reliable ski resorts today / 2050• Technical snow reliability• Future (of) snow-making

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Climatic trends – Temperature

Trawöger 2003

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Climatic trends - Temperature

Trawöger 2003

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Climatic trends – Winter sport days

Trawöger 2003

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

Bavaria TyrolToday

24 %

49 %

27 %

Today

74 %

18 %

8 %

97,5%

2,5 %

2050 (2 K) 2050 (2 K)

19 %

27 %

54 %

Snow reliability

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Kitzbühel

SöldenIschgl

Lenggries Sudelfeld

Garmisch

Lienz

Oberstdorf

Jenner

Mayrhofen

50.00020.00010.0005.000

100.000

Lift capacity(persons per hour)

not snow-reliablelimited snow reliabilitysnow-reliable

Snow reliability

Ski resorts and snow reliability - today

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

50.00020.00010.0005.000

100.000

Lift capacity(persons per hour)

not snow-reliablelimited snow reliabilitysnow-reliable

Snow reliability

Kitzbühel

SöldenIschgl

Lenggries Sudelfeld

Garmisch

Lienz

Oberstdorf

Jenner

Mayrhofen

Ski resorts and snow reliability - 2050

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

What about Snowmaking?

Ischgl, 03.12.2004 © Michael Schneider

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Technical snow reliability – Methodology (1)

Ablation Accumulation

Necessary snow-making days

0

Degree-day model

Diurnal averagetemperatures

Snow making capacity

Days with T<0°C /-2°C

Potentialsnow-making days

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Required days for snow-making=

[((degree-days / month) * factor)*1,91]*0,025

Technical snow-reliability – Methodology (2)

Ablation Snow-makingcapacity

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Technical snow reliability – Results

Natural snow reliability 2050 (>1800m )

Technical snow reliability today (all elevations)

Natural snow reliability today (>1200m )

Technical snow reliability 2050 (>1500m)

Kitzbühel, 16.04.2005 © Robert Steiger

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

50.00020.00010.0005.000

100.000

Lift capacity(persons per hour)

not snow-reliablelimited snow reliabilitysnow-reliable

Snow reliability

Kitzbühel

SöldenIschgl

Lenggries Sudelfeld

Garmisch

Lienz

Oberstdorf

Jenner

Mayrhofen

Ski resorts and technical snow reliability - 2050

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

50.00020.00010.0005.000

100.000

Lift capacity(persons per hour)

not snow-reliablelimited snow reliabilitysnow-reliable

Snow reliability

Kitzbühel

SöldenIschgl

Lenggries Sudelfeld

Garmisch

Lienz

Oberstdorf

Jenner

Mayrhofen

Ski resorts and snow reliability - 2050

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

50.00020.00010.0005.000

100.000

Lift capacity(persons per hour)

not snow-reliablelimited snow reliabilitysnow-reliable

Snow reliability

Kitzbühel

SöldenIschgl

Lenggries Sudelfeld

Garmisch

Lienz

Oberstdorf

Jenner

Mayrhofen

Ski resorts and technical snow reliability - 2050

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Reduction of snow reliable skiing area

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Future (of) snow-making ?

Snow-making will still possible even below 1500m with

• an increased snow production capacity (less than 5 daysfor 20 cm)

• temperature independent snow making facilities

But this means:

• massive future investments• rising operating costs

Mölltaler Gletscher,22.12.2006 © ManG

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Cost of future snow-making

Potential snow-making days

-40 % to -20 %

Rising demand for artificial snow

+70 % to +200 %

Snow-making cost rise by

+200 % to +280 %

+

Mölltaler Gletscher,22.12.2006 © ManG

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Alternatives

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

???

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Bavaria(n=41)

Tyrol(n=213)

Snow reliable 24 % (10 resorts) 68 % (145 resorts)

Limited snow-reliability 49 % (20 resorts) 23 % (48 resorts)

Not snow reliable 27 % (11 resorts) 9 % (20 resorts)

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Inhaltsfolie

• Inhaltsfolie

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Inhaltsfolie

• Technical snow-reliability –Methodology 1

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Technical snow-reliability –Methodology 1

Ablation– Average diurnal temperature– Degree-day-model (degree day factor 2 mm/3 mm)

Snow making capacity– Number of days per month < 0°C/-2°C– 5 days = 20 cm cover of groomed artificial snow

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

180017001600150014001300120011001000900800700

180017001600150014001300120011001000900800700

November Dezember Jänner Februar März

Heute 2KNov ab 1400-1700 (ab 1800)Dez Tal (Tal)/ab 1300-Jan Tal Tal/ab 1000-13Feb Tal Tal/ab 1000-12Mar ab1100-1200 ab 1400-1600

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck

Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006

Climatic trends – Accumulated fresh snow