VULCAIN GLOBAL AND GREEN ENERGYFUNDS€¦ · The fund will be totally transparent to investors who...

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VULCAIN GLOBAL AND GREEN ENERGY FUNDS GREEN AND TRANSITIONAL ENERGY EQUITY AND BOND PRODUCTS 07/29 /2020 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL – PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS LLP Renaud.saleur @ vulcainenergy.com [email protected]

Transcript of VULCAIN GLOBAL AND GREEN ENERGYFUNDS€¦ · The fund will be totally transparent to investors who...

Page 1: VULCAIN GLOBAL AND GREEN ENERGYFUNDS€¦ · The fund will be totally transparent to investors who will receive a weekly letter and a monthly report of holdings. Whereas the GOLBAL

VULCAIN GLOBAL AND GREEN ENERGY FUNDS

GREEN AND TRANSITIONAL ENERGY EQUITY AND BOND PRODUCTS

07/29 /2020STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL – PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR

VULCAIN ENERGY PARTNERS LLP

Renaud.saleur @ vulcainenergy.com [email protected]

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IMPORTANT WARNINGTrading Energy products carries an above average financial risk. The following statement may affect your rights

DISCLAIMER:

This document has been prepared by Renaud Saleur, managing partner of VULCAIN ENERGY LLP and of ANACONDA INVEST SA and officer of KENDAR, thereafterdesignated as the Advisor.

The Advisor is under contract with investment managers ( the Managers) and gives nonbinding advice to the Managers for the exclusive management of actively managedcertificates, managed accounts or any other regulated collective investment schemes, thereafter, designated as the “Funds”. A structured product is therefore not a Fund forthe clarity of this disclaimer. The Advisor does not give advice nor participate in the origination of any other financial products than the Funds and, in particular, the Advisor isnever involved nor gives advice for the origination of structured products made from a basket of equities that may be mentioned in this letter and/or are part of the Funds.Consequently, the Advisor declines all responsibilities for any product created on the basis of the information contained in this document and/or for any product originated bytaking any securities out of the context of the Funds.

The Advisor does not give investment recommendation to the public, advice on commodities nor solicit the public to invest into any energy products.

The equity or credit strategies developed by the Advisor are for the long term but may vary in the short term depending on the volatility of the market. Every positions withinthe Funds are constructed to follow a complex strategy and may be bought as a hedge and not for their own merits. Therefore, the Advisor strongly warns against taking anysecurity or group of securities out of the scope of the Funds to originate any other product than the Funds.

The Advisor warns that any reference to the Advisor and/ or to this letter by any other party than the Managers in their sole and exclusive role to promote and manage theFunds and exclusively in this context shall be considered by the regulator as a Misrepresentation or Misleading information which constitutes a breach of the Code of Conductof the Financial Conduct Authority, sanctioned by fines and penalties mentioned on the Financial Conduct Authority Website.

Consequently and pursuant to this warning, no partners nor directors of the Advisor can be held responsible nor liable for any investment made on the basis of theinformation contained in this letter or /and in the Funds. The partners and directors of the Advisor may at any time buy or sell securities in energy for their own accounts or forother clients than the Manager strictly following the Advisor Compliance guidelines fully reviewed and approved by the Financial Conduct Authority.

This is not to be distributed to the US nor to any US person, nor to any nonqualified investors.

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INVESTMENT BRIEF

The Funds are advised by Renaud Saleur . Renaud is regulated (FCA) through KENDAR Renaud Saleur is a Centrale Supelec graduate with a master in sciences incomputer engineering. He graduated in 1985 from Harvard Business School with a master in business administration. He also holds a master in economics from LaSorbonne. He has successfully managed long only balanced funds for Fidelity International from 1986 to 1998, hedge funds for Soros Global Research LLP and MooreCapital. He has run his own multi strategy fund since 2003 together with three long only energy equity and bond funds since 2018. With a consistent alpha creation and topquartile ranking. He has won many prices from Lipper, Micropal and WM. His credit fund at Fidelity was ranked number 2 over ten years by Micropal. Renaud Saleur hasbeen asked by CAPITAL LINK , the New York based network for Shipping and Energy , to become a Guest Columnist on their Website where he will share his energy viewsweekly .

Renaud Saleur has developed a strong expertise in oil since 1987. He has access to a large network of Oil executives and Specialised Oil brokers. Renaud Saleur proprietaryresearch on the energy sector has been chosen by Capital Link, a worldwide organisation used by the Energy industry for their Forums, to be included on theirWebsite.

www.capitallink.com. World wide shipping Forum in New York in June with all the global players.

It is anticipated that the HY fund will start with $ 20 million and have a soft close at $ 300 million. It shall be liquidated after five years which is the anticipated time to maximisethe return of the fund. Bonds will normally be held to maturity ( five years on average). The fund will have a $ capitalisation share and a $ income distributingshare.

The funds are offered with a 1.5% management fee payable quarterly in arrears and a 15% success fee with high water mark. The two equity AMC are listed on Vienna StockExchange. For the HY bond fund, the success fee will be payable in equity and income shares of the fund so that the advisor and investors interests are always aligned. Theadvisor will have a lock up period for its shares.

The fund may hold significant cash balances and have a macro overlay to preserve the capital of the fund. It is however anticipated that it will follow a buy and hold strategy.

The fund will be totally transparent to investors who will receive a weekly letter and a monthly report ofholdings.

Whereas the GOLBAL ENERGY is managed on the SILEX platform, we are going to move the Green Energy to our own platform soon. The Credit Energy shall be live firstweek of June on the UBP platform. It will not be offered by SILEX but directly by us.

The VULCAIN GREEN ENERGY LONG SHORT AMC was launched with UBS on the 8th of July 2020. Whereas the MSCI WORLD RENEWABLE INDEX is down around 1.8 pct during the same period, we are up 10.6% net of hedge fund fees ( 1.5% and 15% ) . We are now 140% invested and 60% net long.

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DAILY COMMENT OIL AND GREEN

The inventories as reported by the DOE showed a draw on crude but a slight build up in products. Refinery rates were flattih just above 79% but imports increased. Gasoline production was higher by 150,000 barrels, and total imports were 150 for products. Gasoline stocks rose 400,000 and distillates 1.5 million. WoW, gasoline consumption may have been down 5%, as a consequence of COVID 19. This has to be watched carefully as the death toll in the USA is again above 1000 per day.

Brent and WTI are back in the mid 40$ . Production of oil in the US was down 100,000 barrels day back to 11 million . We think it will go down further to below 10 million barrels by year end as Oil services companies ( HALLIBURTON, SCHLUMBERGER…) are either cutting 20% of their workforce or are going bust. The rig count is at historical lowsand much below the number required for a flat production yoy.

AKER SOLUTIONS was up another 14% yesterday as the spin off date is getting near. We reduced the position to around 7% having made a stunning 100% in a few weeks. GLOBAL ENERGY was up 3% yesterday and VULCAIN GREEN L/S is up 15.8% after fees since the 8/7/2020 (Inception) . In the meantime, the MSCI RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD INDEX is down 1%.

EURONAV published stunning results this morning. EBITDA is well ahead and in Q3, 48% of the fleet is booked at $ 60,000 a day in spite of the fall in day rates to below $ 13,000 in June . If they book the rest around $ 20,000, the average will be $ 40,000 well above the consensus projected of $ 30,000 . With opex stable, they will generate good FCF. If floating storage increases ( We saw a reversal of the decrease last week with 6 extra ships in storage vs -13 the week before ) this will also support rates together with the yet to come OPEC increase in pumping. We are now 5% exposed with EURONAV,FRONTLINE and SCORPIO .

SBM OFFSHORE results were good and visibility in FPSO is strong . We are happy with our position

NOBLE filed for bankruptcy and VALARIS should follow any day. TRANSOCEAN is doing everything to avoid CHAPTER 11 and is currently extending its 2023 maturities to 2027. 356 million $ of 2023 convertible have been pushed to 2027 at better terms. LAZARD is officially helping them to restructure the debt but to avoid Chapter 11 . TRANSOCEAN isa good exposure in HIGH OCTANE HIGH YIELD VULCAIN AMC . The NAV is at 101.88 after fees .

DIAMOND OFFSHORE WIND and RWE are working for the University of Maine on a 12 MW floating offshore wind project.

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THE TANKER TRADE STARTS TO REACT AGAIN…. A story of Contango and Good management

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REFINING HAS BEEN TERRIBLE : RECOVERY IN SIGHT ??

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DOE FIGURES

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On the Green Environmental side, July was full of positive news.

Brussels came with a Euros 750 billion Covid 19 recovery plan. Over 500 Billion could be dedicated to Green and Renovation projects . Covid has acted so far as a strong catalyst to long overdue governmental decisions. Let us see if the application follows . Blue and Green hydrogen are two buzzwords that repeat themselves . BMW has announced a fuel cell car , ALSTHOM with the acquisition of BOMBARDIER wants to focus on hydrogen as a fuel for trains . CCS (Carbon Capture) become real when it comes to equipping cement plants, steel furnaces . AKER SOLUTIONS was up 85% in July on this theme and was one of our key positions in both AMC . The growth will come from solar and offshore wind. Offshore wind shall be growing at over 27% per year and is a solution of choice for the environment . No landscape pollution, no noise for neighbours , more stable wind efficiency. Q2 reporting has been the occasion to see a lot of Oil services companies disclose their future plans and existing sales in renewables . In the Offshore wind value chain, studying sub marine soil, controlling the electrical cables, erecting the 300 meters high wind towers … require the same skills and ships which are used to survey submarine pipe lines, install jack ups with mega cranes,. Geophysical study of the grounds and of the sea currents require the same equipment that FUGRO, for instance, uses for its pipe line operations and foundations survey. We have played this transition with four stocks ( AKER SOLUTIONS,FUGRO,KVAERNER,SUBSEA 7) with great success .

In the USA, things have accelerated. DOMINION ENERGY has decided to dispose of its gas assets to focuss on Offshore wind and Solar . ( See the graphs) . We are building a position in the company which should become the American ORSTED . A Democrat election would put these stocks on the lime light and trigger a re rating. IBERDROLA isalso becoming a major actor on the US EAST COAST offshore wind scene . We have raised our exposure to the company. Over 20 GW of Wind power should be builtoffshore Massachussets,New York,Virginia… by 2030 . DOMINION will have 35% of its electricity generation coming from Wind and Solar and 33% Nuclear by then, becoming a very low Carbon utility. US Hydrogen stocks in particular BALLARD, NIKOLA had became bubbles . NIKOLA went from 90 to 30# and the borrow costs from 500% to 1%. This has triggered a fall of the sector . BLOOM ENERGY that we bought at the launch went up 50% to finish flat ITD . However, it is one of the few with HF ACQUISITION trading at normal metrics for superior growth prospects. We are happy to keep them for the enormous potential of Green Hydrogen production (HF) or fuel cells ( BLOOM ) .

We believe Green is a splendid way to play the recovery with the PUT OPTION of the massive government plans for Green Infrastructure .

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AMC : VULCAIN GREEN ENERGY LONG SHORT ( CH0552952233)

THE AMC Post-crisis AMC The world is becoming Green Aware and Climate change with

terrorism, Cyberattacks and now Viruses is one of the great threat ofthe future. Legislation is taking place to address this from the EUGREEN DEAL to IMO2020, IMO 2030… for shipping

The cost of renewables and in particular solar is ( Ex battery storage)becoming very competitive to gas and coal. Greener energiesincluding gas shall produce over 60% of the World electricity by 2050.

$ 13 Trillion at least will be invested into de decarbonisation of theelectricity production by 2040 and this will happen a lot in South EastAsia where Coal is still the main fuel to produce electricity. Growth ofsolar and wind but also LNG will lead the transition.

We reacted very quickly repositioning the AMC more defensively and focusing on the Surviving Champions post crisis

We have concentrated the AMC on Hydrogen, Offshore Wind and Solar. We invest through the whole value chain from metals(Silver,Copper) blade engineers and solar cells manufacturers to utilities and offshore services engineers (Fugro,Subsea7, AkerSolutions) . The AMC is 150% invested (Limit 200%) and 76% net long. We are short shale oil and airlines/casinos/hotels.

We think that electricity demand will recover alongside oil demand as both have a 0.6 correlation to GDP growth. Forward price ofelectricity and carbon credits are already pricing a recovery not in the prices of stocks yet. The higher the recovery of fossil fuels thebetter for renewables from a cost comparison point of view.

The Electrical Vehicle proposal requires huge investments in the grid and in batteries. Copper, Lithium, Rhodium, Palladium andSilver,Platinum to be in big demand. We invest in the corresponding mines.

By 2040, LNG should be the fuel of choice for China. The Covid 19 crisis may have delayed FIDs but the trend is intact. Furthermore,the destruction of capacity in shale oil whose by product was cheap natural gas will be a positive factor for next year ‘s increase ofgas prices. All LNG tech engineers like GTT will benefit as well as LNG tankers.

Solar and Offshore wind should be the winners in the low cost green energy: We invest along all the supply chain from components (Soitec, Jinko, Vestas, Gurit) operators and designers (Scatec,Voltalia) to services companies (Fugro, Aker Solutions). Hydrogen willgrow fast ( Bloom Energy, HL Acquisition)

2020 has been so far an hectic year with the Covid 19 sell off followed by a massive tech rally fueled by the massive Central banks injections. Most recovery plans have a large Green budget allocation that shouldboost the growth of the sector for the next decade. Green Hydrogen may go faster than anticipated.

The April/May spot figures for electricity have shown a sharp drop from an index of 60 in December to 12-22 in April depending on the countries. This together with a fall in demand (electricity demand varies as 0.6times GDP) has weighed naturally on utilities stock prices but they seem to have found a floor. Most Wind or solar utilities have long term PPA and thus did not suffer from the drop in prices. Furthermore, the use ofGreen electricity was favoured during the crisis which helped the volume. Consequently, they have recovered nicely on the Stock Market.

The level of investment in green energy should not be affected for too long. China and Taiwan have resumed their orders in wind power(Vestas) whilst the Oil majors capex level for renewables has not beenaffected so far. If anything the Covid 19 may increase the awareness towards global warming as one of the main threats to humanity: A clear warning boosting capex in the sector through COVID 19 Recovery plans. Most Oil majors and Offshore oil services companies are increasing their exposure to Green.

Gross exposure: 150% Net exposure: 76%

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AMC : VULCAIN SILEX GLOBAL ENERGY (ISIN 0385836090)

Pre-crisis AMC Post-crisis AMC The year 2020 was anyway supposed to be rough for shale oil as

most of the 6000 producers have consistently produced negative freecash flow since 2014 and cumulated huge pile of debt, 120 billion $ ofwhich become due between 2020 and 2021.

The Drillers and Service companies were supposed to enjoy bettertimes with the increase of FIDs and of day rates. Refining would havealso benefited from the switch towards higher margin fuels generatedby the new Marine regulation IMO 2020. We had thus positioned theAMC to get the best returns from this scenario. COVID 19 hasdecided otherwise …

We reacted very quickly repositioning the AMC more defensively and focusing on the Surviving Champions post crisis.

We have concentrated the AMC on fewer names (32) and chosen the companies with the best balance sheets, the potential torebound and to be later the price setters in an environment where, we believe, a lot of capacity shall be destroyed . We emphasizedthe low cost Oil majors with excellent balance sheets and low cash break even ( oil below $ 20) This includes the Nordics( AKERBP)TOTAL and the RUSSIANS (GAZPROM, LUKOIL and ROSNEFT) . We also added the Chinese as their domestic market is restarting albeit at a low pace (PETROCHINA and SINOPEC) and the Brazilian Petrobras. We cannot envisage a re start of productionwithout oil services companies. Although it is in this segment that the carnage will be maximum, the survivors will benefit from a lowcapacity/Higher pricing environment. Three drillers ( MAERSK, ODFJELL and TRANSOCEAN) make it in our list but also oil servicestransitioning to renewables (SUBSEA 7, FUGRO and AKER SOLUTIONS).

Storage and transportation have helped the AMC a lot during the Super Contango phase but the contango is now low ( 1.5$ vs $10 inApril) . We have reduced tankers and storage waiting for OPEC+ to pump more and the Contango to widen.

We also drastically increased our exposure to renewable electricity from precious metals ( Rhodium, Platinum, Palladium ..) to Solarplants and Hydrogen producers. This sector has a strong momentum even after COVID as people will be more and more aware ofGlobal threats to mankind. We have thus been able to outperform ytd all indices by over 1000 basis points.

2020 has been so far an awful year with oil going down over 60% as a consequence of the Covid 19 disease putting most economies at a standstill and the failed negotiation of OPEC + earlier this year leading tothe Pump as You will policy of early April.

The lock down took a huge toll on road transportation taking up to 25 million barrels a day off demand in April. Road transportation is now back to normal (90%) but Air Traffic is still very low ( 7% of Oil demand)Everything being equal Oil demand should have a U shaped recovery but Oil supply an L or Hockey shape recovery leading to , in our view, a fast recovery of oil prices next year ( above $ 60) .

The OPEC + agreement led to a doubling of oil prices in May but OPEC + now plans to increase production by 1.2 million barrels a day to over 9 million. At the same time, some economies are weakening again asCovid 19 is coming back . Whereas we are very positive on oil medium term, We could see some weakness short term with the end of the driving season, possible new lock downs, more OPEC production and theChina/US trade situation. Shale companies and especially the independents should be the most affected with at least 3 million boe a day of lost production by year end. The marginal barrel shall now beconventional and pricing more stable going forward.

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AMC : VULCAIN HIGH OCTANE HIGH YIELD FUND ( CH0553491777)

The high yield energy market has been a casualty of both COVID 19 and OPEC policy to «pump as you will». The Barclays High Yield Energy index has recovered thanks to the massive injection of liquidities by the FED.We believe there are still some strong high yield opportunities within the oil services sector.Our scenario for oil is a L shaped recovery of supply and U or V for demand. High Yield energy bonds tend to trade like the oil commodity.We believe oil services companies that we emerge stronger from the crisis after the bankruptcy of many peers will regain pricing power triggering a better generation of free cash flow leading to credit enhancement .

THE AMC High Octane high yield AMC We invested roughly 70% of the portfolio

We are waiting for better opportunities to deploy the rest of the capitalas oil price may be toppish now with the China/US tensions, theresurgence of Covid and the possible increase of production in Augustby OPEC. Our portfolio is well diversified with tankers ( Scorpio,American Tankers) for 12%, LNG for 8%, E@P for 17%, largeInternational Oil for 25% and Drilling rigs for 6%.

Post our meeting with FUGRO, we are adding a 4% position in the2024 yielding 25% to maturity in Euros and are studying specificsituations like Eramet, Vallourec .

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SHORT TERM RELIEF FOR US OIL PRODUCTION : THE WORST IS TO COME

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AS SHALE PRODUCTION GETS LOWER, DEEP OFFSHORE CAPEX HAS GOT TO INCREASE.

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Offshore Wind should grow faster than the Renewable market

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A NEW POSITION : DOMINION : GOING FROM GAS TO SOLAR AND WIND

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BLOOM IS FALLING IN SYMPATHY WITH NIKOLA : A BUY OPPORTUNITY

Q2 results beat expectations. . 2 million # ebitda vs -5 consensus . May be the stock reacted to the lack of guidance in the Covid 19. Our cost is 8 on the stock. We are buying more today.

BLOOM has an initiative in respirators which may need soon. Thanks to a Bloom innovation , one respirator could service 4 Covid patients at a time. . They think demand for hydrogen solutions could reach 400 MW yearly. The marine solution for SAMSUNG ( Fuel cells for ships) should be ready within two years. . That could represent 300 MW every year. . BE solid oxide fuel cells turn natural gas and hydrogen into 24/7 baseload electricity .

BLOOM now offers electrolysers for Green hydrogen soltution . Compared to other Hydrogen stocks, it trades on 2 times EV/sales and 19 times EV/EBITDA.

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ONE ON ONE WITH GTT

We had a one on one with GTT post results .The results weregood and the guidance maintained. GTT booked 16 big contracts in the FH ranging from $5 million to $ 150 millions. The new agreement in Russia has led to 5 mega ice breakersLNG tankers . 15 more could come.

The FID for QATAR is still not signed but the Qatar Golden Passfor 35 vessels cold come quick. The mega 75 vessels contractscould come next year .

Most shipyards dealing with GTT have managed the COVID 19 crisis very well. No major disruption took place .

GTT is actively doing R@D in synthetic methane (CO2 plus Green hydrogen to do CH4 ) . Burning gas produces 25% lessCO2 and this is why CHINA/INDIA and SOUTH EAST ASIA which produce electricity using 7% Gas power stations vs 65% coalwill lead the LNG growth for the two decades to come.

GTT is doing research in Ammonia and Liquid Hydrogentransportation to be the first if it catches up

Low valuation, 5.5% div yield GTT is working on its image to be seen more as a renewable

company, eventually changing its name to exclude the wordGas

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A GHOST THAT SHOULD SOON REVIVE : FUGRO

FUGRO presented this morning better results and gave an outlook for the year for a positive FCF despite COVID 19.

FUGRO was very quick to react and cut 120 million euros of cost enabling the company to post a positive EBIT . Net Debt/EBITDA decreased from 1.9 to 1.7 and FUGRO repurchased at 75% 30 million Euros nominal of its 150 million debt due 2021 that we own. The RCF was extended to September 2021 and solutions are actively being sought. The cash position is 370 million euros.

The most interesting point is the diversification out of Oil and Gas which is now only 42% of sales, renewables being 24% and growing as FUGRO is involved on 90% of offshore wind projects given its unique position in foundation, geodata, current studies and cable routing and inspection. Offshore wind is growing at 28% per year. This like AKER before is not in the price.

We are buying the bonds for VULCAIN HIGH OCTANE. The 2024 is yielding 25% in Euros. The 2021 at 28% is attractive but there is not offer

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NEWS FOR OUR PRODUCTS

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VULCAIN ENERGY HIGH OCTANE BOND AMC WAS SUCCESSFULLY LAUNCHEDTHURSDAY

THE ENERGY HIGH YIELD BOND MARKET: A HIGH RISK REWARD

Overview

• Issuer Union Bancaire Privée, UBP SA Jersey Branch• Registered Office of 40 Esplanade. P.O. Box 526, Saint Hélier, JE4 5UH Jersey• Lead Manager Union Bancaire Privée, UBP SA, Geneva• Investment Manager Generation Alfa SA, Geneva; the Investment Manager is not

subject to a prudential supervision by FINMA.• Sub-Inv Advisor: Anaconda Invest, London.

• Status• Brief Description

Senior unsecured debtThe Certificate is an actively managed certificate replicating the

performance of a portfolio invested in fixed income bonds as described in more details under the “Underlying” section below.

• Investment scope: 80/85% in BB/B bonds and 10/15% in CCC/CC with a maximumhigh recoveryof 5% in bonds of companies already in Chapter 11 but with a

ratio.• Indic. running yield: > 8%

• Product Type Tracker Certificate (category 1300). For more details, see the http://www.svsp-verband.ch internet site.

USD 10’000

1.80%15% with hurdle rate at 5% per annum

• Security Number Telekurs : TBD ISIN: TBD• Settlement Currency USD• Denomination• Issue Price 100 %• Issue Fee: 0.10 %• Total Expense Ratio:• Performance Fee:• Subscription Period from June 8th 2020 to June 18th 2020• Initial Trade Date• Maturity Date• NAV Frequency :

June 19th 2020 Open end Weekly

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OVERVIEW

We invested roughly 80% of the portfolio . We are waiting for better opportunities to deploy the rest of the capital as oil price may be toppish now with the China/US tensions, the resurgence of Covid and the possible increase of production in August by OPEC . Our portfolio is well diversified with tankers ( Scorpio, American Tankers ) for 10%, LNG for 11%, E@P for 22%, large International Oil for 30% and Drilling rigs for 5%.Post our meeting with FUGRO, we are adding a 4% position in the 2024 yielding 25% to maturity in Euros.

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HIGH YIELD ENERGY BONDS ARE TOTALLY CORRELATED TO OIL PRICE

BRENT RECOVERY SHALL LEAD HIGH YIELD (DRILLING) ENERGY HAS FALLEN IN ALL INDICES (CREDIT AND EQUITY)

ENERGY HIGH YIELD IS INVERSELY CORRELATED TO OIL TRANSOCEAN BOND VERSUS BRENT PRICE

Well chosen issues should rally with the recovery of Brent

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MONTHLY PERFORMANCES GLOBAL ENERGY

GLOBAL ENERGY had a stellar month up 7.9% vs -3.9% for the MSCI GLOBAL ENERGY and down 5.3% for the SPX 500 Energy. The SPX 500 Energy is now less than 3% of the SPX vs 17% in 2015… Our volatility ismuch better .

We made money from the Green exposure of the certificate . AKER SOLUTIONS , once considered a Fossil Fuel stock, announceda spin off of its CCS activities ( Carbon capture = 25% sales) and of its FloatingOffshore Wind activities . Offshore wind shall grow 25% in the next years . This has triggered an 85% rally for the stock. IMPALA and FRESNILLO both Precious metals miners benefited from the Gold, Silverand Platinum rallies. Silver will be boosted by EV and Photo voltaicusage .

GTT was a big winner. The company tries to change its image to a renewable Engineer . We expect further performance.

We lost in SAIPEM although SAIPEM is also transitioning to Green. HL ACQUISITION to merge with FUSION ( Green Hydrogen ) was somewhathurt by low liquidity and the collapse of NIKOLA that also affectedBLOOM ENERGY. We sold REPSOL

PERFORMANCES COMMENTS

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GREEN AND TRANSITIONAL ENERGY AMC LONG SHORT

We are in the process of re designing a performance allocation chart as we have moved to a L/S strategy on the 8th of July, re basing the AMC at 100 .

The old AMC finished flat ITD, (February 2020) . The new AMC finished up 10.16% net of fees vs – 1.8% for the MSCI Global Green and RenewableElectricity. The MSCI Global Energy was down 3.6% .

We made money in AKER SOLUTIONS ( up 68%) FRESNILLO ( 38%) GTT ( 12%) DAQO SOLAR ( 25%) and MEYER BURGER ( 28%) . After making 40% , BLOOM was caught unduly in the NIKOLA debacle ( Down from 90$ to 30$) .and finishedflattish ITD. The same occured to HL ACQUISITION ( Green Hydrogen ) Weremain strongly committed to Fuel Cells and Hydrogen. SIEMENS GAMESA a 4% position was also up 23% given its leadership in Offshore Wind, one of the fastest growing segment of renewables going forward.

This AMC is sold directly through us : [email protected]. All info available upon request also on [email protected]

We decided to transfer the long positions into VULCAIN GREEN ENERGY LONG SHORT to be able to take advantage of the volatility of the Energy market . The figures show that we can easily hedge Green positions with shorts in Fossil energies, especially shale oil .

We have now a 130 % exposure with a net 66% long position. We are short Shale oil producers and SPX 500 Energy. Benefiting from the Dollar fall, ( we had 40% position in $ opened ) we have now hedged 62% of the $ against the Euros as well as all Norvegian Krona against the Dollar.

We may start to sell short some energy and economy sensitive sectors as the Covid 19 story regain some momentum. The High frequency data show a plateauing of the US consumer activityand we expect weaker non manufacturing ISM this week. The stoppage of the $ 600 allocation to US households does not help.

We Closed the former AMC Tuesday Night (8//20) and created the L/S version of it

GREEN AMC L/S PERFORMANCE COMMENTS

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THE PERFORMANCE

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Page 27: VULCAIN GLOBAL AND GREEN ENERGYFUNDS€¦ · The fund will be totally transparent to investors who will receive a weekly letter and a monthly report of holdings. Whereas the GOLBAL

DISCLAIMER This presentation is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, interests in a Fund. No offer or solicitation may be made prior to the delivery of a definitive private placement memorandum of a Fund (a "Memorandum") which will

contain additional information about such Fund, including disclosures relating to risk factors and conflicts of interest. Recipients of this document who intend to apply for interests in the Funds are reminded that any such application will be made solely on the basis of the information contained in the relevant Memorandum which may be different from the information and opinions contained in this document. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumThis document is confidential, is intended only for the person to whom it has been provided and under no circumstance may a copy be shown, copied, transmitted, or otherwise given to any person other than the authorized recipient without the prior written consent of Anaconda Invest S.A. (the "Investment Advisor"). Notwithstanding anything to the contrary herein, each recipient of this presentation may disclose to any and all persons, without limitation of any kind, the tax treatment and tax structure of Cobra Special Situations Fund (each, a "Fund" and together, the "Funds") and (ii) any of its transactions, and all materials of any kind (including opinions or other tax analyses) relating to such tax treatment and tax structure, it being understood that "tax treatment" and "tax structure" do not include the name or the identifying information of a Fund or a transaction. The distribution of the information contained herein in certain jurisdictions may be restricted, and,accordingly, it is the responsibility of any prospective investor to satisfy itself as to compliance with relevant laws and regulations.

The information contained herein is preliminary, is provided for discussion purposes only, is only a summary of key information, is not complete, and does not contain certain material information about the Funds, including important conflicts disclosures and risk factors associated with an investment in the Funds, and is subject to change withoutnotice.

Unless otherwise indicated, the information contained herein is believed to be accurate as of the date on the front cover. No representation or warranty is made as to its continued accuracy after such date.

This presentation is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, interests in a Fund. No offer or solicitation may be made prior to the delivery of a definitive private placement memorandum of a Fund (a "Memorandum") which will contain additional information about such Fund, including disclosures relating to risk factors and conflicts of interest. Recipients of this document who intend to apply for interests in the Funds are reminded that any such applicationwill be made sDISCLAIMER

This document is confidential, is intended only for the person to whom it has been provided and under no circumstance may a copy be shown, copied, transmitted, or otherwise given to any person other than the authorized recipient without the prior written consent of Anaconda Invest S.A. (the "Investment Advisor"). Notwithstanding anything to the contrary herein, each recipient of this presentation may disclose to any and all persons, without limitation of any kind, the tax treatment and tax structure of Cobra Special Situations Fund (each, a "Fund" and together, the "Funds") and (ii) any of its transactions, and all materials of any kind (including opinions or other tax analyses) relating to such tax treatment and tax structure, it being understood that "tax treatment" and "tax structure" do not include the name or the identifying information of a Fund or a transaction. The distribution of theinformationcontained herein in certain jurisdictions may be restricted, and, accordingly, it is the responsibility of any prospective investor to satisfy itself as to compliance with relevant laws and regulations.

The information contained herein is preliminary, is provided for discussion purposes only, is only a summary of key information, is not complete, and does not contain certain material information about the Funds, including important conflicts disclosures and risk factors associated with an investment in the Funds, and is subject to change withoutnotice.

Unless otherwise indicated, the information contained herein is believed to be accurate as of the date on the front cover. No representation or warranty is made as to its continued accuracy after such date.

This presentation is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, interests in a Fund. No offer or solicitation may be made prior to the delivery of a definitive private placement memorandum of a Fund (a "Memorandum") which will contain additional information about such Fund, including disclosures relating to risk factors and conflicts of interest. Recipients of this document who intend to apply for interests in the Funds are reminded that any such application will be made solely on the basis of the information contained in the relevant Memorandum which may be different from the information and opinions contained in this document. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances of any specific person who may receive it and is qualified in its entirety by the Memorandum of the applicable Fund. In the event of any discrepancies between the information contained herein and the Memorandum, the Memorandum will control. The information herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. You should make an independent investigation of the investment described herein, including consulting your tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about the matters discussed herein.

An investment in the Funds may not be suitable for all investors. An investment in the Funds will be suitable only for certain financially sophisticated investors who meet certain eligibilty requirements, have no need for immediate liquidity in their investment, and can bear the risk of an investment in the Funds for an extended period oftime.

Investing in financial markets involves a substantial degree of risk. There can be no assurance that the investment objectives described herein will be achieved. Investment losses may occur, and investors could lose some or all of their investment. No guarantee or representation is made that a Fund's investment program, including, without limitation, its investment objectives, diversification strategies, or risk monitoring goals, will be successful, and investment results may vary substantially over time. Investment losses may occur from time to time. Nothing herein is intended to imply that the Funds' investment methodologies may be considered "conservative", "safe", "risk free" or "risk averse". Economic, market and other conditions could also cause a Fund to alter its investment objectives, guidelines, and restrictions. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE NOR A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO ASSURANCE CAN BE MADE THAT PROFITS WILL BE ACHIEVED OR THAT SUBSTANTIAL LOSSES WILL NOT BE INCURRED.

lely on the basis of the information contained in the relevant Memorandum which may be different from the information and opinions contained in this document. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances of anyspecific person who may receive it and is qualified in its entirety by the Memorandum of the applicable Fund. In the event of any discrepancies between the information contained herein and the Memorandum, the Memorandum will control. The information herein is not intended to provide, andshould not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. You should make an independent investigation of the investment described herein, including consulting your tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about the matters discussedherein.

An investment in the Funds may not be suitable for all investors. An investment in the Funds will be suitable only for certain financially sophisticated investors who meet certain eligibilty requirements, have no need for immediate liquidity in their investment, and can bear the risk of an investment in the Funds for an extended period oftime.

Investing in financial markets involves a substantial degree of risk. There can be no assurance that the investment objectives described herein will be achieved. Investment losses may occur, and investors could lose some or all of their investment. No guarantee or representation is made that a Fund's investment program, including, without limitation, its investment objectives, diversification strategies, or risk monitoring goals, will be successful, and investment results may vary substantially over time. Investment losses may occur from time to time. Nothing herein is intended to imply that the Funds' investment methodologies may be considered "conservative", "safe", "risk free" or "risk averse". Economic, market and other conditions could also cause a Fund to alter its investment objectives, guidelines, and restrictions. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE NOR A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO ASSURANCE CAN BE MADE THAT PROFITS WILL BE ACHIEVED OR THAT SUBSTANTIAL LOSSES WILL NOT BE INCURRED.

stances of any specific person who may receive it and is qualified in its entirety by the Memorandum of the applicable Fund. In the event of any discrepancies between the information contained herein and the Memorandum, the Memorandum will control. The information herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. You should make an independent investigation of the investment described herein, including consulting your tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about the matters discussed herein.

An investment in the Funds may not be suitable for all investors. An investment in the Funds will be suitable only for certain financially sophisticated investors who meet certain eligibilty requirements, have no need for immediate liquidity in their investment, and can bear the risk of an investment in the Funds for an extended period oftime.

Investing in financial markets involves a substantial degree of risk. There can be no assurance that the investment objectives described herein will be achieved. Investment losses may occur, and investors could lose some or all of their investment. No guarantee or representation is made that a Fund's investment program, including, without limitation, its investment objectives, diversification strategies, or risk monitoring goals, will be successful, and investment results may vary substantially over time. Investment losses may occur from time to time. Nothing herein is intended to imply that the Funds' investment methodologies may be considered "conservative", "safe", "risk free" or "risk averse". Economic, market and other conditions could also cause a Fund to alter its investment objectives, guidelines, and restrictions. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE NOR A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO ASSURANCE CAN BE MADE THAT PROFITS WILL BE ACHIEVED OR THAT SUBSTANTIAL LOSSES WILL NOT BE INCURRED.