VUCA World

BY -Kunal Basin

Volatile

Uncertain

Complex

Ambiguous

"the new

normal”

Where did VUCA come from?

US Military started using this term in late 90s for the post-Cold War world

Reflects a fast-paced, increasingly unstable andrapidly changing world

To deal with a changingbattlescape

Business leaders face a similar,

challenging,

dynamic

landscape

Volatile

UnstableHard to predict

Be preparedMatch investment to risk

The challenge is

• Exponentially accelerating change

• Unexpected

• Unstable

• May be of unknown duration

• Requires accelerated decision making

• Require an urgent response

But

• Its not necessarily hard to understand

• Knowledge about it is often available

Example

Prices fluctuate after a natural disaster

How Does it impact?

• Causes fear

• Risk Aversion

Leadership Lessons

• Translate date into information

• Communicate early

• Ensure your intent is understood

We can use

• Rapid advances in computing power

• Unprecedented access to knowledge

• 24hr news

• Viral stories

• Expanding social networks & media

Uncertain

The inability to know everything,the lack of predictability and likelihood of “surprise” events

UncertaintyLeadership Challenges

• Abstruse to situation

• Insufficient information

• More information

• Abstruse to understand out come event

The VUCA prime

The VUCA prime can be seen as a continuum of skill leader can develop to help make sense Of leading in VUCA world

VUCA : UNCERTAINTYVictim of Uncertainty Master of Uncertainty

• See the only one out come and does not think beyond the immediate

• See only problem with potential outcomes

• Clings to existing processes even when they are inadequate

• Rely on past solution to solve today issues

• Concerned with the here and now

• Able to see a range of outcomes and think in terms of confidence intervals

• See uncertain time as opportunities make bold moves

• Recognize issue with current state and seeks to adapt

• Looks for flaws in the past solution to today problem

• Concerned with the future, looking for the weak signals which are the harbingers of change

Complexity

Leadership challenges

• Driver

• Where to start

• Quick wins

• lack the time

• Mitigating actions

• Stuck

AmbiguityThe haziness of reality, the potential for misreads,

and the mixed meanings of conditions; cause-and-

effect confusion.

Ambiguity – Leadership

Challenges

Failure to understand the significance of an event

High risk of miss-interpreting events and

responding inappropriately in ineffective ways

Leaders are too far removed from the source

and context of the events

Leaders act based on a limited understanding of

events and their meaning

Source: http://www.georgeambler.com/vuca-leading-in-

turbulent-times/

How to lead effectively in an Ambiguous

environment?

Listen wellThink

divergently

Set up

incremental

dividends

Source: https://hbr.org/2011/01/leading-

effectively-in-a-vuca-1/

Ready for a VUCAWorld?

The Antidote(Solution)

Bob Johansen

VUCA Prime

Example

Adapting VUCA&VUCA Prime

Expectations & Challenges Change-Decade

LAUNCHED2001, New Leadership Development Programme

Need for Specialized Leadership Programs

Battle Against

Create a vision and “make sense of the world.”

Things Changing Rapidly.

Clear Vision- Focused People. Right Direction Informed Choices.

Communicate

Belief

see things from a more strategic & long-term perspective

Focus

Battle Against

CURIOSITY - ask questions (coach) that challenge the status quo in your organization every day

EMPATHY - get where people are coming from – their hopes, fears and desires

OPEN MIND - explore new ideas, reflect and seek constructive criticism

SIMPLIFY - chop the fat, cut through the complexity and distill the core down to its essence

INTUITION - use the gift of knowing without reasoning, trust your gut and your experience

SYSTEMS THINKING - approach problems from a holistic perspective (a system of dynamic, interacting, interdependent parts)

DECISIVENESS - adapt quickly to changing circumstances and make decisions with confidence

INNOVATE OR DIE - learn from your mistakes

and continuously seek new ways to get better at what you do

EMPOWER - value networks over hierarchy, collaboration over control and set people free to do great work

Ambiguity Agility

References

• What VUCA Really Means For You by Nathan Bennett and G.James Leoine, Harvard Business Review, January 2014 (Kindle edition)

• Winning a SuperVUCA World –saatchikevin.com/Winning_in_a_SuperVUCA_World/

• VUCA -http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility,_uncertainty,_complexity_and_ambiguity